President Obama's economic team is jumping ship as it becomes clearer each day that the administration has botched attempts to recharge the flagging economy. The latest rat leaving the sinking ship of state is top economic adviser Larry Summers, who is better suited for academia than the rough-and-tumble world of politics. His departure hopefully is not the end of the housecleaning. Treasury Secretary Tim (Tax Cheat) Geitner needs to walk the plank, too.
Even the most ardent Obama supporter cannot defend the administration's spectacular failures in the economy arena. Despite spending trillions in bailouts and economic stimulus programs, unemployment has not budged. In fact, it has gone from 7.7 percent when the President assumed office to nearly 10 percent. Consumer spending has all but dried up as people prop up their savings and pay down credit card debt.
This economic reality has escaped the attention of the Obama Administration, whose only solution is to keep driving the country deeper into debt with frivolous government programs that do not address the real economic issue. In fact, this scribe is convinced the administration and its army of economic lightweights don't have a clue about what is the problem. Obama and his sycophants in the media believe it is about jobs. But joblessness is only the symptom of the larger problem.
For months, your faithful journalist has been pointing out that it is all about real estate prices, foreclosures and underwater mortgages. This recession was the byproduct of a real estate bubble that burst, sending ripples through the financial system. Liberals like to argue that it was all Wall Street's fault because the financial firms sold risky derivatives based on underlying housing mortgages. But, what they fail to acknowledge is that if the mortgages had been sound, then the derivatives would have paid off handsomely. Everyone would have won.
Fingering the derivatives is like blaming the sneeze for your cold. Outlandishly lax lending practices, championed by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, led to unhealthy homeowner speculation and saddled under qualified buyers with mortgages they couldn't afford. That is what drove the real estate market off the cliff and sunk the derivatives, leaving homeowners, banks and financial firms in dire financial straits. That shouldn't be too hard to understand, especially for anyone with an ounce of economic acumen.
Yet Obama's so-called economic dream team has spent precious few dollars and efforts on addressing this problem. Instead, they have bailed out billion-dollar banks, papered over financial loses at big Wall Street firms and doled out nearly a trillion dollars for wasteful programs designed to reward Democrats up for reelection under the guise of economic stimulus.
Until the administration addresses the real estate issue, the economy will continue to slumber. Here's why: For most consumers, their home is their biggest asset. When the price of this asset goes down, they rein in spending. They don't feel as "rich" when their home's market value dives 10 to 25 percent, as real estate prices have done in the past two years. When values fall, homeowners who might have been considering moving, put off plans for fear they won't be able to sell their domicile. Or if they do sell, they will have to take a bath, leaving them too little profit to put down on a new home.
There are broader ramifications for the economy. Many homeowners have mortgages that are underwater. That means they owe more on their home than the asset is worth. When this happens, consumers are less likely to spend money renovating their homes or buying new furniture or appliances. Their spending on big ticket items evaporates.
In addition, a depressed housing sector costs jobs. Construction workers, realtors, home builders, suppliers and others have been forced to lay off people. In some cases, industry firms have shuttered their businesses. Housing is a huge employer and when construction falls, there is an aftershock through the entire economy.
Until the Obama administration fixes housing, the economy will remain stalled. No amount of money thrown at big banks, small businesses, stimulus, job retraining and jobless benefits will change that. It is merely dumping taxpayer money down the drain without moving the economic needle.
So what needs to be done? Here are a few modest proposals for reversing the housing crisis and shock the economy into recovery:
ADDRESS UNDERWATER MORTGAGES: This should should have been the very first initiative of the Obama Administration when it assumed office. When home prices fell, lenders began demanding higher payments when mortgages dipped underwater. This sent many homeowners running for the cover of bankruptcy or drove them into foreclosure. The government could have given incentives for lenders to hold the line on payments by relaxing requirements on capital to shore up bank balance sheets. Then the feds should have required (not suggested) lenders to restructure the loans at prevailing interest rates, eliminating adjustable rates mortgages, which have been the scourge of the real estate recovery. If this had been done early on, not only would have more owners been able to remain in their homes, but the market would not have been flooded with foreclosed homes which in turn crippled home prices even further.
INCENTIVES FOR HOME BUYERS: The administration's lone attempt to boost home sales was to launch a program to reward buyers with tax credits. Under the plan, first-time homebuyers received an $8,000 tax credit, while repeat purchasers got $6,500. The program ends September 30, but sales contracts had to be signed by April 30 to qualify. Sales figures were impressive during the short-lived effort, but never reversed the housing slide. The program was too late to turn the tide and was too short in duration. Most realtors also will tell you that the administration's program suffered from paperwork logjams, delays in approvals and government blunders that forced some home buyers to make multiple applications. Many frustrated home buyers simply gave up. Instead of tax credits, the government could sweetened the deal by refunding the money directly to homebuyers upon completion of the sale. Tax credits are "soft" money because in many cases it probably will only reduce income taxes for the buyer. There is no guarantee of a tax refund which would put money in the pockets of buyers. Cash always works better than credits when it comes to buyer motivation.
STRENGTHEN EXISTING HOME SALES: When the housing market collapsed, the market was saturated with existing stock that was not moving. There were too few buyers and too many homes for sale. This is what tanked housing prices. As foreclosures mounted, that exacerbated the problem, causing the supply of homes to far outstrip demand. In this environment, prices plummeted. It's the law of real estate. The administration should have zeroed in on this issue by undertaking efforts to help reduce the supply. In addition to the refund idea mentioned above, the government should have funded a program to waive closing costs on existing homes. Under this plan, the government would send money directly to lenders to cover the costs.
SUBSIDIES TO BUILDERS: The final linchpin in this housing program should have included direct subsidies to home builders. The money would be used to reduce new home prices, while encouraging builders to continue construction. Lower home prices would have attracted buyers, which would have helped deplete the existing inventory of new homes on the market. As new home sales increased, fewer workers would have been laid off and construction would have continued, albeit at a reduced rate.
Like me, you probably are wondering what all of this would have cost the taxpayer. Whatever the price tag, I guarantee it would be far less than what the Obama economic gang has dumped into the stimulus boondoggle, car company and bank bailouts and a host of other programs. Liberals would tell you helping homeowners would not have solved the banking mess or halted the job losses. They are dead wrong.
Liberals don't understand the American economy. It is 75 percent driven by consumer spending. When consumers shut their wallets, no amount of economic pump priming will dig the economy out of its hole. The current problem is even consumers with jobs aren't spending. They look at their devalued homes and tighten their belts another notch. Sure, they are worried about their jobs too. But once consumers start spending, big companies will prosper, small businesses will rally, Wall Street will boom, new capital will flow into the market and the American enterprise system will grow.
However, don't hold your breath waiting for this to happen. The current administration, led by clueless academic classroom economists, are misguided and ill equipped to deal with the realities of our economic malaise. Only a change in administrations will brighten the outlook for economic recovery.
Saturday, September 25, 2010
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Obama Administration Strong Arms Mortgage Firm
There is something fishy going on in the home mortgage arena and the stench stretches all the way to The White House. Yet it has received only a couple of paragraphs worth of attention on the business pages of the mainstream media.
Home mortgage giant Ally Financial, Inc. issued a quiet note to its brokers and agents this week, telling them to halt evictions tied to foreclosures in 23 states. No public announcement was made about the action.
However, one of the brokers leaked the two-page memo to the media. The note, marked "Urgent," ordered brokers to immediately stop evictions, cash-for-key transactions and lockouts.
On the surface, this appears to be good news in light of soaring home foreclosures. Repossessions rose a staggering 25 percent in August, setting a new record. A total of 95,364 homes were taken over by banks in the 30-day period.
August marked the ninth month in a row that the number of homes lost to foreclosure has increased on an annual basis, despite failed, multi-billion dollar efforts by the Obama Administration to stem the tide.
Here's what the media missed on this story. Not many people have heard of Detroit-based Ally Financial, Inc. That's because it was once known as GMAC, Inc., an arm of General Motors, until the automotive company went belly up and filed for bankruptcy.
This same GMAC, now masquerading as Ally Financial, is 56.3 percent owned by the government. It received more than $17 billion in federal bailout funds, courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer.
Now it shouldn't be so hard for anyone paying attention to connect the dots. But let me spell it out. The federal government is the majority owner of Ally Financial. Record home foreclosures are not good news for the Obama Administration and the Democratic Party, locked in a struggle for control of Congress. How difficult is it to imagine that someone in the administration strong-armed Ally Financial into halting evictions of foreclosed homeowners?
What could be worse for Democrats than stories on the evening news showing homeowners thrown out of their homes? It is a nightmare scenario for an administration and a party that has championed its bumbling homeowner assistance program that has made only a small dent in the problem.
When it was caught red-handed, of course Ally Financial's spin masters tried to wave off the whole episode. A spokeswoman claimed the action was necessary to "allow time to address a potential issue that was raised in a number of existing foreclosures." She claimed the company had been working on the problem for three months. However, the mortgage firm declined to provide any details to shed light on the issue.
Corporate double-speak aside, the timing is not coincidental. The mid-term elections are less than two months away. If evictions are stalled at one of the nation's biggest home lenders, it serves Democrats, who already are on the hot seat for their failures to restore the economic health of the country.
If you are still not convinced, check out the list of 23 states affected by Ally Financial's action. They include many with down-to-the-wire races for the Senate, House and Governor.
For example, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio are on the list. Others include: Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont and Wisconsin.
These are the kind of political shenanigans we have come to expect from the Obama Administration. Playing politics with home foreclosures smacks of the worst kind of meddling, even for an administration known for using bare-knuckled tactics, jiggered numbers and government muscle to bully corporate America.
There is a lesson here on why it is never a good idea for the federal government to own a private enterprise.
Home mortgage giant Ally Financial, Inc. issued a quiet note to its brokers and agents this week, telling them to halt evictions tied to foreclosures in 23 states. No public announcement was made about the action.
However, one of the brokers leaked the two-page memo to the media. The note, marked "Urgent," ordered brokers to immediately stop evictions, cash-for-key transactions and lockouts.
On the surface, this appears to be good news in light of soaring home foreclosures. Repossessions rose a staggering 25 percent in August, setting a new record. A total of 95,364 homes were taken over by banks in the 30-day period.
August marked the ninth month in a row that the number of homes lost to foreclosure has increased on an annual basis, despite failed, multi-billion dollar efforts by the Obama Administration to stem the tide.
Here's what the media missed on this story. Not many people have heard of Detroit-based Ally Financial, Inc. That's because it was once known as GMAC, Inc., an arm of General Motors, until the automotive company went belly up and filed for bankruptcy.
This same GMAC, now masquerading as Ally Financial, is 56.3 percent owned by the government. It received more than $17 billion in federal bailout funds, courtesy of the U.S. taxpayer.
Now it shouldn't be so hard for anyone paying attention to connect the dots. But let me spell it out. The federal government is the majority owner of Ally Financial. Record home foreclosures are not good news for the Obama Administration and the Democratic Party, locked in a struggle for control of Congress. How difficult is it to imagine that someone in the administration strong-armed Ally Financial into halting evictions of foreclosed homeowners?
What could be worse for Democrats than stories on the evening news showing homeowners thrown out of their homes? It is a nightmare scenario for an administration and a party that has championed its bumbling homeowner assistance program that has made only a small dent in the problem.
When it was caught red-handed, of course Ally Financial's spin masters tried to wave off the whole episode. A spokeswoman claimed the action was necessary to "allow time to address a potential issue that was raised in a number of existing foreclosures." She claimed the company had been working on the problem for three months. However, the mortgage firm declined to provide any details to shed light on the issue.
Corporate double-speak aside, the timing is not coincidental. The mid-term elections are less than two months away. If evictions are stalled at one of the nation's biggest home lenders, it serves Democrats, who already are on the hot seat for their failures to restore the economic health of the country.
If you are still not convinced, check out the list of 23 states affected by Ally Financial's action. They include many with down-to-the-wire races for the Senate, House and Governor.
For example, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania and Ohio are on the list. Others include: Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Vermont and Wisconsin.
These are the kind of political shenanigans we have come to expect from the Obama Administration. Playing politics with home foreclosures smacks of the worst kind of meddling, even for an administration known for using bare-knuckled tactics, jiggered numbers and government muscle to bully corporate America.
There is a lesson here on why it is never a good idea for the federal government to own a private enterprise.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Odds and Ends, But Oddly Entertaining
A new monthly feature of Drew's Diatribe debuts today with this column. It is called, "Odds and Ends, But Oddly Entertaining," a collection of news items which are designed to enlighten, enliven and engage. As the name indicates, there will be the occasional oddball piece of news too. Of course, expect a liberal dose of stinging commentary and reflection sprinkled throughout.
CLOSING IN ON YOUR WALLET : A recent survey by Bankrate.com illustrates the folly of government intervention in private industry. In its survey, the firm found that closing costs on home mortgages have zoomed 37 percent ahead of last year's average. These costs include appraisals, credit reports, settlement fees and surveys. Housing industry executives blame the rising costs on a new government rule which hiked the costs for all those appraisers, attorneys, surveyors and credit companies whose fees make up the closing expenses. The new law, which took effect January 1, requires a more accurate statement of closing costs to borrowers. It sounds like a good idea, but the new requirements are more complicated, which means more workers are needed to meet the government mandate. Lenders too have been impacted. They are having to hire more compliance people to make sure everyone else in the lending chain is producing accurate data for borrowers. No one argues the need for reliable closing cost information. However, as this illustrates, the heavy hand of government regulation usually leads to higher costs, which ultimately are passed on to consumers.
PARENTAL INDISCRETION: A child advocacy group has raised the red flag on the number of kids left in overheated cars. According to its findings, at least 41 children have died this year in enclosed cars on sizzling summer days. It is a tragic issue. However, the group now wants Congress and regulators to compel automakers to install warning systems to prevent parents from leaving children in cars unattended. This is the kind of logic that has led to an tsunami of regulations that add costs to cars. It is easier to punish automakers with added costs than to deal with the real problem of negligent parents. That's why this warning system is a bad idea. Instead, every state should enact legislation that makes it a crime to leave a child unattended in a car. If a few people went to jail for long stretches, a warning light would go off in every parent's brain before leaving a child in a closed car on a 100-degree day.
THIS IS TOO TAXING OF AN IDEA: A report by The Tax Foundation shows the harmful effect of higher tax rates on stock dividends. The expiration of the Bush tax cuts on January 1 of next year and the new Medicare taxes on investment income will push the top effective tax rate on dividends to 68 percent in 2011. That will give the U.S. the distinction of having the highest tax on dividends among all industrialized nations. The new Medicare taxes on investment income are designed to help pay for the bloated health care reform bill passed earlier this year. Economic experts predict the higher taxes will discourage productive capital formation, which reduces wages and living standards. Watch for a massive stock sell-off during the fourth quarter of this year as investors try to take advantage of the current tax rates before January 1.
DEBT BOMB: From 1789 through 2008--a period of 220 years--the United States government racked up $5.8 trillion in national debt. Since 2008, about $4.2 trillion has been added to the national debt, raising the nation's total debt to $9 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office, those folks who are rarely if ever accurate on their estimates, are guessing that the debt will hit a staggering $20 trillion by the end of the current decade. The CBO never errs on the high side for fear of angering its clients in Congress. But even if the CBO has it right, the result will be unprecedented government borrowing. Washington will need to borrow three times more than it did in the previous 220 years combined. The cost of all this debt will saddle taxpayers with heavy levies. By some estimates, the average household will have to pony up $7,000 in 2020 just to meet the government interest requirements on its debt. That's why the national debt is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode, destroying what's left of the nation's fragile economy.
JUMPING IN THE GENE POOL: One of the fastest growing professions is something called "certified genetic counselors." There are 2,800 professional counselors working today in the U.S. These people assist clients in deciding whether to be tested for genetic markers for such things as diseases, drug interactions and inherited medical anomalies. Once the tests are done, the counselors interpret the results for clients. The profession has weathered its share of critics, including a congressional subcommittee that conducted hearings on the providers of genetic testing to patients. These tests are at the patients discretion and usually are not ordered by physicians. Perhaps, the government can levy a tax on the certified genetic counselors, as it did the tanning bed industry. Taxes are Congress' way of dealing with those individuals and industries it considers out of the mainstream.
CHICKEN FRIED WEIGHT: Obesity rates have health officials worried as Americans pack on more weight each year. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates there are 72.5 million obese people in the country. That's roughly 27 percent of the population. The nine states with the highest obesity rates are all in the South with the exception of West Virginia. The highest rate is 34.4 percent in Mississippi. The CDCP had all sorts of explanations for the higher rates in these nine states: diet, exercise, climate and more. Anyone who has traveled to the South or grown up in that region (like your scribe) would not need a federal government survey to tell them why people are fatter in Dixie. It's called fried food. Any culture that eats fried dough for breakfast, fried catfish for lunch and fried green tomatoes at supper has earned every single pound. It's time for the government to stop studying and pass the fried okra.
IMAGINE THE FAMILY REUNIONS: Reuters reports that authorities have arrested a Paris man who claimed to have fathered 55 children by 55 different women. The man, who is 54-years old, was suspected of fraudulently obtaining nearly $1.27 million annually in benefits from the French social system to support his far flung family. In addition, the man is accused of obtaining residency permits for immigrant women who were listed as mothers of the children. No wonder the man opted to take the government dole. He was obviously too busy procreating to hold a regular job. But you have to shake your head and wonder at one point did the father run out of names for his brood of 55?
That's all the news that fits. Tune in next month.
CLOSING IN ON YOUR WALLET : A recent survey by Bankrate.com illustrates the folly of government intervention in private industry. In its survey, the firm found that closing costs on home mortgages have zoomed 37 percent ahead of last year's average. These costs include appraisals, credit reports, settlement fees and surveys. Housing industry executives blame the rising costs on a new government rule which hiked the costs for all those appraisers, attorneys, surveyors and credit companies whose fees make up the closing expenses. The new law, which took effect January 1, requires a more accurate statement of closing costs to borrowers. It sounds like a good idea, but the new requirements are more complicated, which means more workers are needed to meet the government mandate. Lenders too have been impacted. They are having to hire more compliance people to make sure everyone else in the lending chain is producing accurate data for borrowers. No one argues the need for reliable closing cost information. However, as this illustrates, the heavy hand of government regulation usually leads to higher costs, which ultimately are passed on to consumers.
PARENTAL INDISCRETION: A child advocacy group has raised the red flag on the number of kids left in overheated cars. According to its findings, at least 41 children have died this year in enclosed cars on sizzling summer days. It is a tragic issue. However, the group now wants Congress and regulators to compel automakers to install warning systems to prevent parents from leaving children in cars unattended. This is the kind of logic that has led to an tsunami of regulations that add costs to cars. It is easier to punish automakers with added costs than to deal with the real problem of negligent parents. That's why this warning system is a bad idea. Instead, every state should enact legislation that makes it a crime to leave a child unattended in a car. If a few people went to jail for long stretches, a warning light would go off in every parent's brain before leaving a child in a closed car on a 100-degree day.
THIS IS TOO TAXING OF AN IDEA: A report by The Tax Foundation shows the harmful effect of higher tax rates on stock dividends. The expiration of the Bush tax cuts on January 1 of next year and the new Medicare taxes on investment income will push the top effective tax rate on dividends to 68 percent in 2011. That will give the U.S. the distinction of having the highest tax on dividends among all industrialized nations. The new Medicare taxes on investment income are designed to help pay for the bloated health care reform bill passed earlier this year. Economic experts predict the higher taxes will discourage productive capital formation, which reduces wages and living standards. Watch for a massive stock sell-off during the fourth quarter of this year as investors try to take advantage of the current tax rates before January 1.
DEBT BOMB: From 1789 through 2008--a period of 220 years--the United States government racked up $5.8 trillion in national debt. Since 2008, about $4.2 trillion has been added to the national debt, raising the nation's total debt to $9 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office, those folks who are rarely if ever accurate on their estimates, are guessing that the debt will hit a staggering $20 trillion by the end of the current decade. The CBO never errs on the high side for fear of angering its clients in Congress. But even if the CBO has it right, the result will be unprecedented government borrowing. Washington will need to borrow three times more than it did in the previous 220 years combined. The cost of all this debt will saddle taxpayers with heavy levies. By some estimates, the average household will have to pony up $7,000 in 2020 just to meet the government interest requirements on its debt. That's why the national debt is a ticking time bomb waiting to explode, destroying what's left of the nation's fragile economy.
JUMPING IN THE GENE POOL: One of the fastest growing professions is something called "certified genetic counselors." There are 2,800 professional counselors working today in the U.S. These people assist clients in deciding whether to be tested for genetic markers for such things as diseases, drug interactions and inherited medical anomalies. Once the tests are done, the counselors interpret the results for clients. The profession has weathered its share of critics, including a congressional subcommittee that conducted hearings on the providers of genetic testing to patients. These tests are at the patients discretion and usually are not ordered by physicians. Perhaps, the government can levy a tax on the certified genetic counselors, as it did the tanning bed industry. Taxes are Congress' way of dealing with those individuals and industries it considers out of the mainstream.
CHICKEN FRIED WEIGHT: Obesity rates have health officials worried as Americans pack on more weight each year. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates there are 72.5 million obese people in the country. That's roughly 27 percent of the population. The nine states with the highest obesity rates are all in the South with the exception of West Virginia. The highest rate is 34.4 percent in Mississippi. The CDCP had all sorts of explanations for the higher rates in these nine states: diet, exercise, climate and more. Anyone who has traveled to the South or grown up in that region (like your scribe) would not need a federal government survey to tell them why people are fatter in Dixie. It's called fried food. Any culture that eats fried dough for breakfast, fried catfish for lunch and fried green tomatoes at supper has earned every single pound. It's time for the government to stop studying and pass the fried okra.
IMAGINE THE FAMILY REUNIONS: Reuters reports that authorities have arrested a Paris man who claimed to have fathered 55 children by 55 different women. The man, who is 54-years old, was suspected of fraudulently obtaining nearly $1.27 million annually in benefits from the French social system to support his far flung family. In addition, the man is accused of obtaining residency permits for immigrant women who were listed as mothers of the children. No wonder the man opted to take the government dole. He was obviously too busy procreating to hold a regular job. But you have to shake your head and wonder at one point did the father run out of names for his brood of 55?
That's all the news that fits. Tune in next month.
Friday, September 3, 2010
NFL Season Predictions
Americans will once again be able to feed their addiction to the NFL as another pro football season arrives just in time to end the boredom of a long summer of watching television reruns and baseball. Every season has its surprises and disappointments, as this one surely will, but only the foolhardy try to predict the winners and losers. Alas, no one every accused your favorite scribe of being a certified Mensa member.
After consulting a Ouija board and a gap-toothed tarot card reader, here are some predictions for the new NFL season:
OVERACHIEVERS:
SAN FRANCISCO: Coach Mike Singletary has remade the Forty-Niners into a tough, run-oriented team. They were close in a lot of game last season, only to let them slip away in the fourth quarter. This is a club with offensive firepower and a rugged defense. The experience of last season should benefit the Niners, if quarterback Alex Smith can deliver in the clutch. Look for San Fran to win the NFC West and make the playoffs.
NY GIANTS: The Giants played more like Midgets last season, especially on defense. They lost their defensive edge, something the Giants had built their franchise on in the past decade. Injuries didn't help but several stalwarts also underperformed. If the defense shows improvement, the Giants could surprise in the NFC East. They are flying under the radar right now, which makes the Giants dangerous, especially with a solid coach and tough running game.
TENNESSEE: The Titans began last season like a team looking for an early offseason vacation. They stumbled out of the gate and never recovered until their season was done. But in winning their last six games, the Titans proved they were still a championship caliber team. Vince Young led the late-season resurgence after almost burning his bridges in Tennessee. Coach Jeff Fisher is one of the NFL's best at preparing his team. This season he leads the Titans to a division title.
OAKLAND: No team has been more woeful than the Oakland Raiders with the possible exception of the Obama Administration. Al Davis' bunch has stumbled, bumbled and grumbled themselves through a lost decade of uninspiring football. The franchise biggest blunder was taking overweight, overrated Jamarcus Russell with the first pick in the draft and then installing him as their quarterback. He flopped bigger than a beached whale. The trade for Redskins' signal caller Jason Campbell was just what the Raiders needed to stabilize their offense. The defense was one of the best in the AFC last season. The Raiders might not make the playoffs but they will return to respectability.
DETROIT: The Lions' performance has been the only thing worst than Detroit's sagging economy. However, things are looking up, since ownership dumped the general manager. Two straight years of excellent drafts has armed the team with talent on both offense and defense. Matthew Stafford was impressive in his rookie reason. If he continues to improve, the future is bright in the bleak Motor City. The Lions might not even finish 8-8 this season, but at least they will be competitive. With a few breaks, they could even find the promised land of a .500 season.
UNDERACHIEVERS:
ARIZONA: After making the playoffs the last two years, the Cardinals are destined for a precipitous fall. Quarterback Kurt Warner, the heart and soul of the franchise, has departed for the retirement couch, leaving the Big Red with a gaping hole at this key position. Matt Leinart has already proven he can't handle the pressure and Derek Anderson is a stopgap measure. The penny-pinching Cardinals have lost too much talent to free agency over the last two years. Look for the team to be sub-500 and miss the playoffs.
DALLAS: No team attracts preseason hype like the Cowboys and no team disappoints its followers more often than the Cowboys. Expectations are high in Dallas, since the team hosts the Super Bowl. However, the Cowboy offense has gotten too predictable under former genius Jason Garrett. The defense gives up too many big plays and still is searching for a secondary to match its defensive front. Then you have coach Yuck-Yuck, Wade Phillips. No one is more uninspiring nor more ill prepared on game day. As a result, they lose games they should win on talent alone. The Cowboys will finish second in their division, make the playoffs as a wild card and make an early exit.
MINNESOTA: Drama queen Brett Favre is back at the helm and most prognosticators are anointing the Vikings as a Super Bowl team. Not so fast. Running back Adrian Peterson has slipped a notch, thanks to fumble prone hands. Favre will be 41 (or is it 61?) and the tank may finally be empty. Minnesota has flourished in a weak division, but a tough non-conference schedule will extract its revenge on their record. Look for Green Bay to replace Minnesota at the top of the NFC North Division.
NEW YORK JETS: The Jets shocked the NFL last season in Rex Ryan's debut. Their aggressive, swarming defense was the best in the entire league. However, the offense, handed over to rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez, was pedestrian. The Jets modus operandi was to win tight games with defense. The Jets upgraded on offense, but Sanchez is not the man to build an offense around. Teams will be gunning for loud mouth Rex this year. The defense will still be stout, but the Jets will need to shutout every team to finish ahead of New England and Miami. They are destined to finish in the middle of the pack.
SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS:
In the AFC, the champion will be decided between Baltimore and New England. The Ravens, under second year quarterback Joe Flacco, have all the ingredients for a championship run: defense, running game and a quality leader. The Pats suffered a string of injuries last season that doomed their chances for another title. With a little luck in that area, they should return to their accustomed place in the championship game. However, the nod goes to the Ravens.
In the NFC, the Giants will return to their dominance, thanks to an improved defense and a healthy Eli Manning. Some are discounting the Saints because of their suspect defense, but defensive coordinator Greg Williams has made improvements on that side of the ball. Drew Brees has established himself as the best at leading a high octane offense. The Saints will repeat as NFC champs.
And the Super Bowl Champion is (drum roll): Baltimore Ravens.
After consulting a Ouija board and a gap-toothed tarot card reader, here are some predictions for the new NFL season:
OVERACHIEVERS:
SAN FRANCISCO: Coach Mike Singletary has remade the Forty-Niners into a tough, run-oriented team. They were close in a lot of game last season, only to let them slip away in the fourth quarter. This is a club with offensive firepower and a rugged defense. The experience of last season should benefit the Niners, if quarterback Alex Smith can deliver in the clutch. Look for San Fran to win the NFC West and make the playoffs.
NY GIANTS: The Giants played more like Midgets last season, especially on defense. They lost their defensive edge, something the Giants had built their franchise on in the past decade. Injuries didn't help but several stalwarts also underperformed. If the defense shows improvement, the Giants could surprise in the NFC East. They are flying under the radar right now, which makes the Giants dangerous, especially with a solid coach and tough running game.
TENNESSEE: The Titans began last season like a team looking for an early offseason vacation. They stumbled out of the gate and never recovered until their season was done. But in winning their last six games, the Titans proved they were still a championship caliber team. Vince Young led the late-season resurgence after almost burning his bridges in Tennessee. Coach Jeff Fisher is one of the NFL's best at preparing his team. This season he leads the Titans to a division title.
OAKLAND: No team has been more woeful than the Oakland Raiders with the possible exception of the Obama Administration. Al Davis' bunch has stumbled, bumbled and grumbled themselves through a lost decade of uninspiring football. The franchise biggest blunder was taking overweight, overrated Jamarcus Russell with the first pick in the draft and then installing him as their quarterback. He flopped bigger than a beached whale. The trade for Redskins' signal caller Jason Campbell was just what the Raiders needed to stabilize their offense. The defense was one of the best in the AFC last season. The Raiders might not make the playoffs but they will return to respectability.
DETROIT: The Lions' performance has been the only thing worst than Detroit's sagging economy. However, things are looking up, since ownership dumped the general manager. Two straight years of excellent drafts has armed the team with talent on both offense and defense. Matthew Stafford was impressive in his rookie reason. If he continues to improve, the future is bright in the bleak Motor City. The Lions might not even finish 8-8 this season, but at least they will be competitive. With a few breaks, they could even find the promised land of a .500 season.
UNDERACHIEVERS:
ARIZONA: After making the playoffs the last two years, the Cardinals are destined for a precipitous fall. Quarterback Kurt Warner, the heart and soul of the franchise, has departed for the retirement couch, leaving the Big Red with a gaping hole at this key position. Matt Leinart has already proven he can't handle the pressure and Derek Anderson is a stopgap measure. The penny-pinching Cardinals have lost too much talent to free agency over the last two years. Look for the team to be sub-500 and miss the playoffs.
DALLAS: No team attracts preseason hype like the Cowboys and no team disappoints its followers more often than the Cowboys. Expectations are high in Dallas, since the team hosts the Super Bowl. However, the Cowboy offense has gotten too predictable under former genius Jason Garrett. The defense gives up too many big plays and still is searching for a secondary to match its defensive front. Then you have coach Yuck-Yuck, Wade Phillips. No one is more uninspiring nor more ill prepared on game day. As a result, they lose games they should win on talent alone. The Cowboys will finish second in their division, make the playoffs as a wild card and make an early exit.
MINNESOTA: Drama queen Brett Favre is back at the helm and most prognosticators are anointing the Vikings as a Super Bowl team. Not so fast. Running back Adrian Peterson has slipped a notch, thanks to fumble prone hands. Favre will be 41 (or is it 61?) and the tank may finally be empty. Minnesota has flourished in a weak division, but a tough non-conference schedule will extract its revenge on their record. Look for Green Bay to replace Minnesota at the top of the NFC North Division.
NEW YORK JETS: The Jets shocked the NFL last season in Rex Ryan's debut. Their aggressive, swarming defense was the best in the entire league. However, the offense, handed over to rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez, was pedestrian. The Jets modus operandi was to win tight games with defense. The Jets upgraded on offense, but Sanchez is not the man to build an offense around. Teams will be gunning for loud mouth Rex this year. The defense will still be stout, but the Jets will need to shutout every team to finish ahead of New England and Miami. They are destined to finish in the middle of the pack.
SUPER BOWL PREDICTIONS:
In the AFC, the champion will be decided between Baltimore and New England. The Ravens, under second year quarterback Joe Flacco, have all the ingredients for a championship run: defense, running game and a quality leader. The Pats suffered a string of injuries last season that doomed their chances for another title. With a little luck in that area, they should return to their accustomed place in the championship game. However, the nod goes to the Ravens.
In the NFC, the Giants will return to their dominance, thanks to an improved defense and a healthy Eli Manning. Some are discounting the Saints because of their suspect defense, but defensive coordinator Greg Williams has made improvements on that side of the ball. Drew Brees has established himself as the best at leading a high octane offense. The Saints will repeat as NFC champs.
And the Super Bowl Champion is (drum roll): Baltimore Ravens.
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