Predictions are like health insurance policies. Every American must have one in the New Year or cough up a fine. Check that. Pay a tax.
Nothing stings like a bite out of your income, so here are the predictions for 2014 from an insured healthy author who wants to avoid any human contact with the Infernal Revenue Service.
1. Obamacare enrollments fall woefully short of 7 million goal. An estimated 4.1 million people sign up for health insurance through government exchanges. Even that number is skewed because the figure only includes those who applied. Many Americans learn in January that their applications were chewed up in the system and they are without insurance.
2. The Republicans capture control of the Senate. After the mid-term elections the GOP emerges with a 55-45 advantage in the senate chamber. Exit polling shows the unpopularity of Obamacare and distrust of the president are key factors in the Republican victory. The Grand Old Party maintains an advantage in the House, assuring Obama's second term is a flop.
3. EU taxes savings accounts to fund bloated entitlements. The European Union Commission follows the lead of Greece in levying a tax on savings accounts above $100,000 in the 34-member nations. Democrats in the United States float a similar plan after Obamacare costs exceed projections, prompting more borrowing and increased budget deficits.
4. Mortgage rates inch past 5 percent. After a long run of low rates, interest creeps upward after the Federal Reserve tapers its bond buying. The increase slams housing starts as prices flatline and sales flutter below 2013 levels. Many homeowners with adjustable rate mortgages scramble to avoid foreclosure.
5. The Dow dips below 16,000 before a year end rally. After a four-year bull stampede, the stock market begins to flounder as interest rates climb, making bonds and certificates of deposit more attractive investments. Without the Fed stimulus, investors worry that the market has been overvalued. Puny first quarter profits from major companies exacerbate the rush for the exits.
6. Lois Lerner, the disgraced IRS official, resurfaces. Lerner is the 34-year career IRS manager who "retired" after the scandal erupted over her overzealous scrutiny of conservative charitable organizations. Lerner reappears on the Washington scene as an employee of a George Soros funded organization.
7. Cash registers disappear in most big retail stores. The advent of mobile payment devices advances from the trial stage to full blown deployment among large nationwide retailers. More stores will have roaming employees armed with mobile devices to assist with in-aisle purchases.
8. Goggle Glass finally goes on sale to the public. The head-mounted device, unveiled to much fanfare in 2012, makes its debut to cheers from the marketplace. The product, ballyhooed and criticized in the test stage, becomes the must-have gadget for the tech savvy and millennials racking up sales of 7 million.
9. Smart watch purchases soar with improved applications. The watches, basically wearable computers, add more features for health and wellness monitoring along with sports and fitness functions. After tepid sales in 2013, more early adopters and the health conscious snap up the devices fueling sales of more than 6 million in the new year.
10. U.S. economic growth remains languid. After a hopeful first quarter, the economy slides in last half of the year as mounting household debt, rising interest rates and slow personal income growth stymie consumer consumption. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ends the year with growth of 2.25 percent, a sign of continuing economic weakness.
As with any predictions, these forecasts come with no guarantees. However, there is one certainty. The year will be filled with more uncertainty than anyone could foresee.
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Monday, December 23, 2013
What Santa Wants For Christmas
Dear Girls and Boys:
I hesitate to say it, but some of you are becoming too greedy. You plop yourself on my lap and recite a long list of goodies you want for Christmas. Sorry, but you sound like you think you're entitled. You want contraceptives. Abortions. Cell phones. Insurance. Who do you think I am? President Obama?
I think many of you have become Santa-dependent. If I may suggest, you cannot expect me to solve all the problems in your life. That's why we have a fat federal government. Washington is awash in cash, unlike old Santa who gets by on a monthly Social Security check.
Believe it or not, I have my own share of problems. The elves organized themselves into a union after some folks from the AFL-CIO showed up at the North Pole. Now they are demanding a 35-hour work week during the Christmas season. It really has gummed up toy production.
Then Rudolph came out of the closet and declared he was homosexual. Surprised me, because I always thought Prancer was the gay one. Some of the other reindeer objected, which caused a ruckus. Next thing I know, TV reporters from North Pole's only station arrived with cameras when Al Sharpton came with a bus load of protesters wearing antler hats.
Mrs. Claus has not been much help this year. She spent most of the Christmas season trying to sign up for Obamacare. The website crashed just as she entered the information about her political affiliation. I told her she should never admit to being a Republican.
Then a team of environmentalists parachuted into the North Pole. They shut down the coal-fired plant in town and converted it to wind power. Santa's workshop is now dependent on northers for electricity. When the wind doesn't blow, Santa's lights don't glow.
To make matters worse, a record snow storm hit the North Pole this week. The reindeer have gone into hiding just thinking about hauling that heavy sleigh through deep snow. I keep hearing about global warming, but it's as cold as a reindeer's you-know-what up here. Call me a denier.
Even old Santa has landed in the middle of a controversy. Some newscaster at the Fox network said I was white. I never thought there was any doubt. But apparently a few folks were offended. To make amends, I have visited my local tanning salon for a month. I swear I could pass for Jesse Jackson.
Heck, I no longer dream of a White Christmas. I want a rainbow Christmas. If he were alive, Bing Crosby would be crooning, "I'm Dreaming of A Black, Brown, Yellow, White Holiday." The word "Christmas" ticks off some people, so it'd have to be scratched.
Then Mrs. Claus put me on a Jenny Craig diet. I tried to tell her that I was supposed to have an ample belly. It's part of the legend of Santa. But that didn't matter. If I eat one more asparagus tip, I think I am going to explode in anger. In my current state, I keep imagining Dancer in a pot roast.
As you can see, boys and girls, Santa could use a few gifts of his own to brighten my Christmas. My list is shorter than most of yours. I desire a little family peace. Some joy. Perhaps, a few good tidings. But most of all, I just want to rejoice in the spirit of Christmas.
I think you boys and girls should wish for the same things. You can do without all the stuff you think you need. And you would be a lot happier, too.
Merry Christmas,
Santa Claus
I hesitate to say it, but some of you are becoming too greedy. You plop yourself on my lap and recite a long list of goodies you want for Christmas. Sorry, but you sound like you think you're entitled. You want contraceptives. Abortions. Cell phones. Insurance. Who do you think I am? President Obama?
I think many of you have become Santa-dependent. If I may suggest, you cannot expect me to solve all the problems in your life. That's why we have a fat federal government. Washington is awash in cash, unlike old Santa who gets by on a monthly Social Security check.
Believe it or not, I have my own share of problems. The elves organized themselves into a union after some folks from the AFL-CIO showed up at the North Pole. Now they are demanding a 35-hour work week during the Christmas season. It really has gummed up toy production.
Then Rudolph came out of the closet and declared he was homosexual. Surprised me, because I always thought Prancer was the gay one. Some of the other reindeer objected, which caused a ruckus. Next thing I know, TV reporters from North Pole's only station arrived with cameras when Al Sharpton came with a bus load of protesters wearing antler hats.
Mrs. Claus has not been much help this year. She spent most of the Christmas season trying to sign up for Obamacare. The website crashed just as she entered the information about her political affiliation. I told her she should never admit to being a Republican.
Then a team of environmentalists parachuted into the North Pole. They shut down the coal-fired plant in town and converted it to wind power. Santa's workshop is now dependent on northers for electricity. When the wind doesn't blow, Santa's lights don't glow.
To make matters worse, a record snow storm hit the North Pole this week. The reindeer have gone into hiding just thinking about hauling that heavy sleigh through deep snow. I keep hearing about global warming, but it's as cold as a reindeer's you-know-what up here. Call me a denier.
Even old Santa has landed in the middle of a controversy. Some newscaster at the Fox network said I was white. I never thought there was any doubt. But apparently a few folks were offended. To make amends, I have visited my local tanning salon for a month. I swear I could pass for Jesse Jackson.
Heck, I no longer dream of a White Christmas. I want a rainbow Christmas. If he were alive, Bing Crosby would be crooning, "I'm Dreaming of A Black, Brown, Yellow, White Holiday." The word "Christmas" ticks off some people, so it'd have to be scratched.
Then Mrs. Claus put me on a Jenny Craig diet. I tried to tell her that I was supposed to have an ample belly. It's part of the legend of Santa. But that didn't matter. If I eat one more asparagus tip, I think I am going to explode in anger. In my current state, I keep imagining Dancer in a pot roast.
As you can see, boys and girls, Santa could use a few gifts of his own to brighten my Christmas. My list is shorter than most of yours. I desire a little family peace. Some joy. Perhaps, a few good tidings. But most of all, I just want to rejoice in the spirit of Christmas.
I think you boys and girls should wish for the same things. You can do without all the stuff you think you need. And you would be a lot happier, too.
Merry Christmas,
Santa Claus
Monday, December 16, 2013
Budget Charade: How Republicans Forfeited Our Future
Hand-wringing Republicans, skittish about the media thrashing over the government shutdown, have surrendered America's future to spendthrift Democrats. The recent capitulation by the House majority resulted in a two-year budget deal that leaves unaddressed the nation's fiscal problems.
In the name of the political Holy Grail of bipartisanship, the jelly-spined GOP agreed to eliminate $45 billion of scheduled sequester budget cuts next year and another $18 billion in 2015, wiping out the first meaningful reductions in spending since President Obama took office.
As a result of the deal, the nation continues on a fiscal collision course that will leave the United States with nothing but Draconian choices in the near future.
The agreement, forged by Republican Rep. Paul Ryan and Democrat Sen. Patty Murray, still must be approved by the totalitarian Senate, ruled by iron-fisted dictator Harry Reid. However, prospects appear good that the bargain will slither through the upper chamber.
Fearful Republicans succumbed to the House accord after the 16-day government shutdown in October triggered a media savaging of the party brand. Against this fusillade of criticism, GOP party insiders lobbied for appeasement to shore up Republicans' chances in next year's mid-term elections.
But the bipartisan compact does not address reforms needed in the nation's bloated entitlement programs, which account for 62 percent of spending. Unless Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare and welfare programs are pared, prudent deficit and debt reduction cannot be achieved. Period.
In their haste to make concessions, cowardly House Republicans waved the white flag over spending. Under the deal, discretionary expenditures would climb to $1.012 trillion in 2014 and $1.014 trillion the following year. There is no reduction in spending, despite what the media has reported.
As a result, deficits will continue to add to the nation's swollen debt. This month U.S. debt crossed over the $17 trillion mark for the first time in history. Unfunded liabilities, money owed to Social Security and other programs, now stands at $126.9 trillion and mounting daily.
As part of the covenant, the two parties "propose" to save $85 billion and reduce the deficit by more than $20 billion. There are no details on how these future cutbacks will be accomplished. This is nothing more than a Washington gimmick designed to defer decisions indefinitely.
Weak-kneed Republicans also reneged on their promise to enact no new taxes. They signed on to a sneaky increase in millions of dollars in user fees on air travel and customs. Only in Washington would the establishment refuse to call these tax increases.
Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, architects of a nonpartisan report in 2010 on the nation's fiscal threats, were critical of the agreement's provisions because of the missed opportunity to address entitlement reform and to amend the tax code.
"That leaves only tough choices for future deficit reduction or sequester replacement, which are critically necessary to keep entitlement programs affordable and the economy vibrant," the two policy makers wrote in an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times.
Reaching middle ground on issues often requires trade-offs. But Republicans caved into Democrats for the tawdry allure of victory at the polls in November. In exchange, they received a one-day pass from the media but lost the trust of many GOP voters they will need next year.
In the name of the political Holy Grail of bipartisanship, the jelly-spined GOP agreed to eliminate $45 billion of scheduled sequester budget cuts next year and another $18 billion in 2015, wiping out the first meaningful reductions in spending since President Obama took office.
As a result of the deal, the nation continues on a fiscal collision course that will leave the United States with nothing but Draconian choices in the near future.
The agreement, forged by Republican Rep. Paul Ryan and Democrat Sen. Patty Murray, still must be approved by the totalitarian Senate, ruled by iron-fisted dictator Harry Reid. However, prospects appear good that the bargain will slither through the upper chamber.
Fearful Republicans succumbed to the House accord after the 16-day government shutdown in October triggered a media savaging of the party brand. Against this fusillade of criticism, GOP party insiders lobbied for appeasement to shore up Republicans' chances in next year's mid-term elections.
But the bipartisan compact does not address reforms needed in the nation's bloated entitlement programs, which account for 62 percent of spending. Unless Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare and welfare programs are pared, prudent deficit and debt reduction cannot be achieved. Period.
In their haste to make concessions, cowardly House Republicans waved the white flag over spending. Under the deal, discretionary expenditures would climb to $1.012 trillion in 2014 and $1.014 trillion the following year. There is no reduction in spending, despite what the media has reported.
As a result, deficits will continue to add to the nation's swollen debt. This month U.S. debt crossed over the $17 trillion mark for the first time in history. Unfunded liabilities, money owed to Social Security and other programs, now stands at $126.9 trillion and mounting daily.
As part of the covenant, the two parties "propose" to save $85 billion and reduce the deficit by more than $20 billion. There are no details on how these future cutbacks will be accomplished. This is nothing more than a Washington gimmick designed to defer decisions indefinitely.
Weak-kneed Republicans also reneged on their promise to enact no new taxes. They signed on to a sneaky increase in millions of dollars in user fees on air travel and customs. Only in Washington would the establishment refuse to call these tax increases.
Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, architects of a nonpartisan report in 2010 on the nation's fiscal threats, were critical of the agreement's provisions because of the missed opportunity to address entitlement reform and to amend the tax code.
"That leaves only tough choices for future deficit reduction or sequester replacement, which are critically necessary to keep entitlement programs affordable and the economy vibrant," the two policy makers wrote in an op-ed in the Los Angeles Times.
Reaching middle ground on issues often requires trade-offs. But Republicans caved into Democrats for the tawdry allure of victory at the polls in November. In exchange, they received a one-day pass from the media but lost the trust of many GOP voters they will need next year.
Monday, December 9, 2013
Childhood Obesity: America's Epidemic
Obesity rates among school-aged children and adolescents have tripled over the past thirty years, fueling skyrocketing health care costs for America's youth. Trends indicate childhood obesity has reached an epidemic level, affecting the projected life span of the next generation.
Despite the alarming direction, the nation has done little to address the problem. In fairness, First Lady Michelle Obama has tried to shine a light on the issue, but progress has been non-existent in reversing the decades-old trend that threatens America's future.
As one sign of failure, current data on childhood obesity is elusive. Although a plethora of health organizations have generated research reports, much of the data is outdated. Conflicting statistics are also rampant, which bedevils policy makers looking for easy solutions.
However, a majority of experts agree that nearly one in three U.S. children is obese. In some areas of the country, the numbers are higher. For example, the Rio Grande Valley in Texas holds the dubious distinction of being home to the largest percentage of obese children and adults, 38.5%.
As a result of the crisis, children in the Rio Grande Valley already have a projected life span that is less than their parents. If trends continue, experts predict obesity nationwide could trim lifespans of the next generation by two to five years, according to the Children's Defense Fund (CDF).
Hispanics, the majority ethnicity in the Rio Grande, are particularly at risk for obesity. Nearly one-half (47.8 percent) of Mexican-American children and teens, aged 2-19, have been told by a doctor they are overweight, reports a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services research study.
Despite the urgency, it remains difficult to get the medical profession to agree on what constitutes obesity. The formula for determining obesity involves a mathematical ratio of a person's height and weight, making it impossible to define obesity with a single number or percentage.
Instead of obsessing over a definition, it is more illuminating to focus on the causes. Here there is general agreement in the medical community that poor eating habits, lack of exercise and family history are major triggers of obesity in children.
Only one in five high school children eat the recommended servings of fruits and vegetables each day, writes the CDF. Meanwhile, fast food consumption has increased fivefold among children since 1970. Sugar-sweetened beverages constitute 11 percent of an average child's total calorie intake.
Exhaustive studies show today's children are spending less time in sports or other activities. Two-thirds of children do not meet the daily recommendation of 60-minutes of moderate activity, according to a study reported by the CDF.
Children and adolescents are also spending more time watching television, playing video games or surfing on the computer. Recent research cited by CDF showed that children ages 11 to 14 spent nearly 12 hours in front of those various screens.
For a long time, the medical profession has known that family history also plays a significant role in childhood obesity. The American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry reported that children with obese parents have an 80 per cent chance of suffering from obesity, too.
Medical costs for obesity are soaring. A 2009 study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that "direct and indirect" expenses of obesity totaled $147 billion annually. Obesity is responsible for such health problems as diabetes, high blood pressure and depression.
Solutions for reducing childhood obesity have been predictable failures. Banning soft drinks in schools, policing fast-food restaurants and building more parks have produced no tangible results. Increased government intervention has not curbed childhood obesity.
The number one defense in the battle against childhood obesity is parents. They have the responsibility to monitor eating, exercise and lifestyles of their children. Educated and motivated parents are the last best hope for arresting childhood obesity.
Despite the alarming direction, the nation has done little to address the problem. In fairness, First Lady Michelle Obama has tried to shine a light on the issue, but progress has been non-existent in reversing the decades-old trend that threatens America's future.
As one sign of failure, current data on childhood obesity is elusive. Although a plethora of health organizations have generated research reports, much of the data is outdated. Conflicting statistics are also rampant, which bedevils policy makers looking for easy solutions.
However, a majority of experts agree that nearly one in three U.S. children is obese. In some areas of the country, the numbers are higher. For example, the Rio Grande Valley in Texas holds the dubious distinction of being home to the largest percentage of obese children and adults, 38.5%.
As a result of the crisis, children in the Rio Grande Valley already have a projected life span that is less than their parents. If trends continue, experts predict obesity nationwide could trim lifespans of the next generation by two to five years, according to the Children's Defense Fund (CDF).
Hispanics, the majority ethnicity in the Rio Grande, are particularly at risk for obesity. Nearly one-half (47.8 percent) of Mexican-American children and teens, aged 2-19, have been told by a doctor they are overweight, reports a U.S. Department of Health and Human Services research study.
Despite the urgency, it remains difficult to get the medical profession to agree on what constitutes obesity. The formula for determining obesity involves a mathematical ratio of a person's height and weight, making it impossible to define obesity with a single number or percentage.
Instead of obsessing over a definition, it is more illuminating to focus on the causes. Here there is general agreement in the medical community that poor eating habits, lack of exercise and family history are major triggers of obesity in children.
Only one in five high school children eat the recommended servings of fruits and vegetables each day, writes the CDF. Meanwhile, fast food consumption has increased fivefold among children since 1970. Sugar-sweetened beverages constitute 11 percent of an average child's total calorie intake.
Exhaustive studies show today's children are spending less time in sports or other activities. Two-thirds of children do not meet the daily recommendation of 60-minutes of moderate activity, according to a study reported by the CDF.
Children and adolescents are also spending more time watching television, playing video games or surfing on the computer. Recent research cited by CDF showed that children ages 11 to 14 spent nearly 12 hours in front of those various screens.
For a long time, the medical profession has known that family history also plays a significant role in childhood obesity. The American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry reported that children with obese parents have an 80 per cent chance of suffering from obesity, too.
Medical costs for obesity are soaring. A 2009 study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that "direct and indirect" expenses of obesity totaled $147 billion annually. Obesity is responsible for such health problems as diabetes, high blood pressure and depression.
Solutions for reducing childhood obesity have been predictable failures. Banning soft drinks in schools, policing fast-food restaurants and building more parks have produced no tangible results. Increased government intervention has not curbed childhood obesity.
The number one defense in the battle against childhood obesity is parents. They have the responsibility to monitor eating, exercise and lifestyles of their children. Educated and motivated parents are the last best hope for arresting childhood obesity.
Monday, December 2, 2013
American Workers: Vanishing Under Obama
For the first time in the nation's history, the number of working-age Americans not in the labor force has crept up to 90.473 million people, a disturbing trend that threatens the economic future of the United States.
Since President Obama was sworn into office, there are more than 5.7 million fewer people working or looking for a job. American workers are vanishing by the hundreds of thousands every year and the number of laborers underemployed may be as high as 17.4 percent, according to Gallup researchers.
Yet this administration still touts how it hauled the country out of a deep recession. The numbers from the federal government's own Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) offer a different economic reality--one that underscores the failure of Obama's policies.
The official unemployment rate stands at 7.3 percent, a full two percentage points higher than the White House promised four years ago when it unleashed billions of dollars in economic stimulus spending. However, the unemployment percentage only masks the real problem.
Fewer Americans than ever are participating in the workforce. When Obama swept into the Oval Office, 65.7 percent of the working age population was employed. The most recent figures from the BLS show it has plummeted to 58 percent, the lowest in American history.
Worker participation rates may sound like economic jargon. But it matters because it is a key gauge of the employment situation. Many economists argue participation rates are more reliable than unemployment figures as a measure of the economy's strength.
The precipitous fall in participation rates means that the overall supply of employed workers is dropping. As a result, the economy is being driven by a smaller portion of the population. That leaves fewer people to pay taxes, but more Americans who qualify for government assistance.
As the supply of laborers dries up, it shrinks the available pool of workers necessary for economic growth. Many American businesses are beginning to worry about an adequate supply of workers to fill jobs as the last of the Boomer generation retires.
The United States' economic standing in the world has begun to reflect the decline. Average worker participation rates in 16 countries with developed economies now surpass the U.S. Once America owned the title of job creation leader.
The Heritage Foundation, a national think-tank, found that the drop in labor force participation "accounts for about the entire net drop in the unemployment rate over the past three years." In other words, if participation rates had remained static, unemployment would be even higher.
How can the United States reclaim its position as the world leader in worker participation?
It begins with a smaller government and less intervention. As the federal government appropriates more power and influence over the economy, the result is a shrinking private business sector that spawns fewer jobs for a growing population.
Jobs, living standards and economic opportunities depend on a growing workforce. The U.S. faces a dim economic future unless there is a sharp reversal of current trends and policies.
Since President Obama was sworn into office, there are more than 5.7 million fewer people working or looking for a job. American workers are vanishing by the hundreds of thousands every year and the number of laborers underemployed may be as high as 17.4 percent, according to Gallup researchers.
Yet this administration still touts how it hauled the country out of a deep recession. The numbers from the federal government's own Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) offer a different economic reality--one that underscores the failure of Obama's policies.
The official unemployment rate stands at 7.3 percent, a full two percentage points higher than the White House promised four years ago when it unleashed billions of dollars in economic stimulus spending. However, the unemployment percentage only masks the real problem.
Fewer Americans than ever are participating in the workforce. When Obama swept into the Oval Office, 65.7 percent of the working age population was employed. The most recent figures from the BLS show it has plummeted to 58 percent, the lowest in American history.
Worker participation rates may sound like economic jargon. But it matters because it is a key gauge of the employment situation. Many economists argue participation rates are more reliable than unemployment figures as a measure of the economy's strength.
The precipitous fall in participation rates means that the overall supply of employed workers is dropping. As a result, the economy is being driven by a smaller portion of the population. That leaves fewer people to pay taxes, but more Americans who qualify for government assistance.
As the supply of laborers dries up, it shrinks the available pool of workers necessary for economic growth. Many American businesses are beginning to worry about an adequate supply of workers to fill jobs as the last of the Boomer generation retires.
The United States' economic standing in the world has begun to reflect the decline. Average worker participation rates in 16 countries with developed economies now surpass the U.S. Once America owned the title of job creation leader.
The Heritage Foundation, a national think-tank, found that the drop in labor force participation "accounts for about the entire net drop in the unemployment rate over the past three years." In other words, if participation rates had remained static, unemployment would be even higher.
How can the United States reclaim its position as the world leader in worker participation?
It begins with a smaller government and less intervention. As the federal government appropriates more power and influence over the economy, the result is a shrinking private business sector that spawns fewer jobs for a growing population.
Jobs, living standards and economic opportunities depend on a growing workforce. The U.S. faces a dim economic future unless there is a sharp reversal of current trends and policies.
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