Monday, January 25, 2016

For Hillary, History Is Repeating Itself

This presidential candidate draws raucous, overflowing crowds.  He has experienced a meteoric rise in the polls.  His positions on issues often confound the media.  His hair has been fodder for late night comedians. No, his name is not Donald Trump.  The candidate is 74-year old Bernie Sanders.

The Vermont senator who dons rumpled suits and sports an untamed gray mane has turned the Democratic Presidential race into a tight contest that the political pundits never saw coming.  His climb to within striking distance of Hillary Clinton has thrown her campaign into crisis mode.

It wasn't supposed to be this way.  The former First Lady was primed to coast to a coronation. Her advisers, including former President Bill Clinton, seriously miscalculated that her advantages of money and name recognition would be a firewall to thwart Sanders' campaign.

Down by 50 points in the polls last year at one time, Sanders has trimmed Clinton's national lead to seven points in the latest CBS/New York Times poll.  A Fox News survey has her ahead by 15. Sanders is poised to win the first two primary states, Iowa and New Hampshire.

In addition, Sanders has hooked large, boisterous crowds to his campaign rallies.  He drew 27,800 people in Los Angeles.  That is five times larger than any crowd that has shown up at one of Hillary's orchestrated assemblies.  In recent weeks, Sanders' revivals have pulled in about 100,000 supporters.

Sanders whips up crowds by attacking the rich, the powerful, income inequality and the rigged capitalistic economy.  His positions are left of most Democrats and are born of his self-avowed admiration for socialism.  He eschews personal attacks on Clinton, preferring to stick to the issues.

While Clinton still enjoys a huge lead in fund-raising, Sanders has been narrowing the gap.  He announced in December a record 2.2 million individual donations, topping Mr. Obama's total for a single year.  In the most recent quarter, Sanders raised $26 million, just shy of Clinton's $28 million.

This must seem all too familiar to the Clinton campaign after an unknown senator from Illinois handed her a humiliating defeat in the 2008 race for the Democratic Party presidential nomination. In that election, Clinton seemed all but assured to win because of her elephantine edge.

It's no coincidence that the apparatchik media has focused on the anti-establishment GOP wave, while ignoring Democrats' revolt against its old guard.  But it is impossible to dismiss the angst among the establishment who cringe at the prospect of outsider Sanders as the nominee.

He isn't even a Democrat.  He officially was elected Senator as an independent in Vermont, although he caucuses with Democrats. He is anathema to Democrat bosses who value party fealty above all else. The party has tried every trick to tilt the primary to Clinton at Sanders' expense.

But it isn't working.

An average of the latest RealClearPolitics polls are sour news for Clinton.  Against the top three Republican contenders, she leads only Donald Trump by a razor-thin margin, losing to Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz.   Sanders tops both Cruz and Trump, but lags a few points behind Rubio.

Democrats, like many of their Republican counterparts, are fed up with the establishment. Recent polling shows a full 18 percent of Democrats would not vote for Clinton under any circumstances. Clinton represents the status quo and most of Sanders' voters would not back her.

This has the Democratic Party bosses nervous.  Not only is Clinton slipping and sliding in the polls, but there is an FBI investigation of her email scandal hanging like a ominous cloud over her head. What if she is indicted just as Democratic Party convention convenes?

A worried Clinton has met privately with the president on two occasions in recent months.  One theory is that she is lobbying Mr. Obama to quash the FBI investigation.  That may explain why Clinton now describes her candidacy as a bid for a third term for the president.

Despite her pandering, Mr. Obama has not favored Clinton with his endorsement.  Speculation is rampant that the president may know the former New York senator can avoid criminal charges only by accepting a plea deal of a misdemeanor offense for her email shenanigans.

Clinton lost once when all the odds appeared in her favor.  It could happen a second time, which would effectively end her political career. Conventional wisdom still clings to the notion she will overcome the Sanders threat.  But conventional wisdom usually turns out to be wrong.

Monday, January 18, 2016

Rapamycin: The Fountain of Youth?

The Holy Grail of science has been to discover a drug to slow down aging while extending the healthy years for humans.  Unfortunately, pharmacological history is littered with compounds and drugs that have failed to deliver on the anti-aging promise.

Today there is renewed hope in the scientific community about a drug that has shown to extend the life span of middle-aged mice.  After extensive studies in cells and animals, ground breaking research has been launched using humans in a closely-watched trial.

The drug is called Rapamycin, which was originally approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 1999 for transplant patients. Rapamycin was used as an immunosuppressant to help prevent the body's rejection of organ transplants.

Although the drug has been around for less than two decades, it was discovered in the 1970's by a Canadian medical expedition to Easter Island, a remote dollop of land in the Pacific Ocean located about 2,100 miles off the coast of Chile.

Rapamycin, an eponym of the Polynesian name for Easter Island, is a naturally occurring bacterium found in the soil near the colossal stone head statues that dot the landscape.  The organism secrets a potent antifungal compound.  A Canadian doctor purified it and named it Rapamycin.

Years later it evolved into the standard drug treatment for organ transplant patients, but otherwise it languished in relative anonymity. A breakthrough study underwritten by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) in 2009 reignited interest in Rapamycin, this time as an anti-aging drug.

In the research, Rapamycin was given to male and female mice in late middle age.  The results were nothing short of astounding.  The male and female mice lived nine and 14 percent longer, respectively, than average.  This is equivalent to extending the life of a 60-year old woman to 95.

As often happens, the news media pounced on the discovery, leading to wild speculation about a "magic pill" that would be a bonanza for seniors.  Three magazines, Science, Nature and Time, called the findings one of the year's top discoveries.  The hype leapfrogged scientific caution.

Back in obscure labs where scientists toil inconspicuously, the job had only begun.  Exhaustive investigation at the University of Texas Health Science Center (UTHSC) lead to additional studies in animals and cells. The testing paved the way for the first trials to be conducted on humans.

This appeared to be the logical next step because Rapamycin showed promise as drug that could extend life by delaying the onset of aging-related diseases, such as cancer, heart disease and Alzheimer's.  The drug works by intervening in molecular processes that promote aging.

The Barshop Institute for Longevity and Aging Studies at UTHSC in San Antonio is currently partnering with the South Texas Veterans Health Care System in a clinical research study to determine if Rapamycin can be applied as a "possible intervention for aging" in humans.

Eight World War II military veterans have been recruited for the initial trial, most of them in their 90's.  The research is designed to assess the drug's impact on the volunteers' physical ability, immune system function, learning and memory.

The trial is ongoing, but there are already anecdotal stories of success. However, only a few volunteers have received the drug and additional research is needed to validate the findings.  At some point, plans are to expand the trial by opening the research to more participants.

But don't look for Rapamycin at your local pharmacy any time soon. Even if the trials are successful, the drug must receive the stamp of approval from the FDA to treat aging.  Since getting old is not considered a disease, that could present an obstacle for gaining FDA endorsement.

There are also ethical issues.  Would it be good for society if everyone lived to be 120?  Other concerns would include the cost and availability of the drug, not to mention the consequences for health insurance carriers, Medicare and Social Security programs.

Leaving that aside, it will be difficult for the government and the big pharmaceutical companies to ignore public pressure once the word oozes out about the trial's success.  Everyone wants to live longer while enjoying good health.  Rapamycin may yet turn out to be The Fountain of Youth.  

In the 16th century, Spanish explorer Juan Ponce de Leon went searching for the elusive Fountain of Youth.  He never located the mythical healing waters.  Perhaps, Ponce should have been looking on Easter Island.    

Monday, January 11, 2016

Five New Year's Resolutions For Americans

New Year's resolutions, like a baby's diaper, are changed often and tossed in the garbage bin at the end of the day.  Yet Americans have an obsession with making cliched declarations each January to lose weight, exercise more, drink less, declutter their homes and quit smoking.

Lack of ingenuity may be part of the reason that Americans' New Year's resolutions are broken more often than a Hollywood celebrity's marriage vows.  Another cause of shattered promises is the focus on individual priorities rather than those of society at large.

Perhaps, if Americans resolved to make changes that improved the country there would be more commitment to attaining the goal.  That novel concept is what President John F. Kennedy had in mind when he challenged Americans to ask what they can do for the good of the country.

With that in mind, here are five New Year's resolutions that would enhance American life if people adopted a few simple changes.

1.  Tone It Down

Complaints about the political discourse in Washington have fueled cries for civil rhetoric between politicians and the White House. However, more often than not leaders reflect their constituents' feelings.  And Americans' political tone has evolved into ugly rants and petulant partisanship.

Check out social media, if you have doubts.  Twitter, Facebook, Goggle+ and blogs have become a sewer of foul language, nasty verbal scuffles and personal attacks over volatile issues and political leaders. Political disagreements erupt into volcanic exchanges.

Is it any surprise that politicians of both parties have adopted meanness as their weapon of choice in the interplay with their opponents? Americans are mad about politics and their anger is spilling over into the language used by their political representatives.

Americans need to tone it down.  Political partisanship doesn't mean hating the other side. Disagreeing with someone's views should not be a license to verbally assault a complete stranger. Cooler heads in society might lead to less shrillness in Washington.

2.  Be Politically Active

America will choose a new national leader this year.  But if this presidential election holds to form, nearly half of voting age Americans will sit on the sidelines.  A democracy, particularly one like America's, depends on citizen participation to thrive.

In the last presidential election, less than 55 percent of eligible voters showed up at the polls.  That was fewer Americans than cast ballots in the 2008 election.  Voter participation has been trending down for decades.

In the period from 1840 to 1900, more than 70 percent of all registered voters journeyed to the polls in presidential elections. Since the 1968 election, turnout has not reached 60 percent in any presidential contest.  This is a national embarrassment.

Americans cannot afford to remain aloof about choosing the next president.  Too much is at stake. Every vote counts, therefore every American has a sacred duty to make the effort to get to the polls.

3.   Live Within Your Means 

Much has been made of America's mushrooming national debt, which is nearing $19 trillion.  But consumers have increased borrowing at an alarming rate as the rise in the cost of living has outpaced personal income growth over the past 12 years.

At the end of the third quarter of last year, America's total consumer debt was a staggering $11.91 trillion.  Of that amount, student loans accounted for $1.21 trillion.  Debts for mortgages and auto loans were $8.12 trillion and $1.03 trillion, respectively.

The average U.S. household carries $15,355 in credit card debt.  The total credit card debt for all households topped $700 billion in 2015. The average household pays a total of $6,658 in interest annually. No wonder an estimated 1.23 million people filed for bankruptcy last year.

Americans need to save more and avoid running up more debt.  It is hypocritical to wag your finger at the government for borrowing too much, while you spend money that you don't have.  This issue will become more acute each year as the cost of living creeps higher while wages fail to keep pace.

4.  Give up your celebrity obsession   

Americans have a well documented fascination with celebrities, especially Hollywood glitterati, rock musicians, sports figures and reality TV stars.  In recent years, celebrity status also has been accorded chefs, economists, media execs, computer geeks, bankers and Wall Street czars.

Too many Americans look to the rich and famous for cues on how to act, what to wear and how to order their life's priorities. Unfortunately, most of their "heroes" are flawed characters with inflated egos, narcissistic behavioral issues and greedy appetites.  Not the kind of people to emulate.

The cult of celebrity has become big business in America.  Stars have their own websites, rake in millions of dollars from advertising and sponsorships, enjoy constant media fawning and are celebrated on social media.  Kim Kardashian is more famous than the Vice President of the U.S.

A psychologist with Southern Illinois University's School of Medicine has studied the phenomenon and determined Americans are "overly preoccupied" with celebrities and their fantasy images. Researchers have given a name to this unhealthy behavior: "celebrity worship syndrome."

Americans need to look to their parents, teachers, friends, pastors, police officers and others for their values.  Stop wasting time chasing the latest news about some celebrity sleaze ball.

5.  Be kinder

Survey after survey finds Americans are distressed about the rising tide of rudeness in their neighborhoods, shopping malls, on the roads, at work and in schools.  Incivility has become the latest pandemic to threaten the mental health of everyone.

Just a few facts from recent research: two-thirds of Americans believe rudeness is a major problem; 98 percent of employees have experienced uncivil behavior at work; and online cyberbullying incidents have doubled.  People are angrier, raunchier, rougher and filthier.

No one uses a simple "please" or "thank you" any more.  People are shouting, yelling and verbally sparring with each other.  Time to invoke the golden rule: "Do unto others as you would have them do unto you." Try a little kindness.  Most often it will be greeted with a smile and politeness.

If everyone embraced those five New Year's resolutions, America would be a better place for all.


Monday, January 4, 2016

Your Federal Government: Big and Costly

Government employees now outnumber manufacturing workers in the United States by a margin of nearly two to one.  For decades local, state and federal governments have amassed an empire, reaching a staggering payroll of 21,995,000 last year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

While the government has claimed the title of the nation's biggest employer, manufacturing has shrunk.  Once a dominant sector, today there are only 12,329,000 Americans employed in manufacturing jobs. There are 1.8 government jobs for every one manufacturing worker.

This trend underscores the growth of government at every level.  Today there are more than 2.7 million federal workers, 5.02 million state employees and 14.1 million local wage earners.  That means there is one government worker for every 14.6 people living in the United States.

Despite the bloated government workforce numbers, employment has actually been falling at the state and local government level.  The Pew Research Center reports that state and local payrolls have dipped 290,500 during the period from January 2009 to December 2014.

During that same period, the federal government added 62,700 non-postal service jobs.  Pew researchers found the Postal Service reduced its workforce by 129,400 as mounting budget deficits forced the agency to squeeze its payroll.

The Obama Administration and its apparatchik media continue to claim that the federal government has not grown under the current president. They use sleight of hand by counting the reduction in Postal Service employees.   However, it is an independent agency of the federal government.

Three federal agencies accounted for the lion's share of the increase in employees.  They are the Department of Defense, Homeland Security and Veterans Affairs.

Federal government jobs are among the highest paying positions in the nation.  Nearly 500,000 federal employees make $100,000 or more annually.  That represents 22 percent of all federal workers.  By comparison in 2006, only 12 percent of federal employees pocketed that much salary.

A Government Accountability Office (GAO) report released last year documented that the average annual pay for a federal worker reached $75,947 in 2012.  That is more than 63 percent higher than the current national average wage level of $46,481.

Wages paint only part of the compensation picture.  A Bureau of Economic Analysis study revealed that a federal worker in 2014 enjoyed average annual benefits of $35,781, compared to $10,896 for a private sector employee.

In total, federal government spending on pay and benefits increased by $51 billion, from $193.2 billion to $244.3 billion, from 2004 to 2012, the GAO report established. That represents a 26.4 percent increase during the eight-year period studied by the government watchdog agency.

Government worker pay and benefits gobble up about 14 percent of the total federal budget. However, the financial impact is understated because that does not include government pensions that add another $70 billion in costs annually, plus $13 billion in yearly retiree health care expenditures.
  
There are opportunities in the near future to trim federal employees and thus reduce the impact on the budget. By 2017, about 31 percent of federal employees will be eligible to retire, the GAO says.

Without resorting to layoffs, the federal government could scale back its workforce by simply choosing not to fill those retirement vacancies. But given the current climate in Washington, there is little enthusiasm for any change that bucks the status quo.

Bigger government equals more jobs that can be parceled out as political favors by the administration in power.  It is considered another patronage perk by both political parties.  For that reason alone, the federal bureaucracy will remain a Washington untouchable.