Memorial Day's solemn tribute to America's fallen military heroes risks being overshadowed by a nationwide bloody killing spree. Last year at least 108 people were murdered during the three-day holiday. Indications are this year the senseless assaults may eclipse the 2015 record.
The epicenter of the crime wave last Memorial Day was Chicago, where 56 people were gunned down. The victims included a four-year-old girl and three teenagers. In Baltimore, 28 citizens were fatally wounded during the same period. New York recorded 23 homicides over the holiday.
The murderous binge in these cities followed on the heels of outcries over police violence in the three metropolitan areas. Some law enforcement experts are convinced the tsunami of savagery was in part attributable to a reduction in proactive policing after the Ferguson police altercation in August, 2014.
Police officers in some major cities are more reluctant to confront minor offenses that often escalate into violence. This so-called Ferguson Effect has been soundly rejected by the White House because it does not fit their narrative of assigning blame to oppressive white police enforcement.
However, the Journal of Criminal Justice studied violence in the aftermath of Ferguson and found that homicides spiked in the 12 months after the Michael Brown shooting. The cities that experienced the biggest increases have large black populations and persistently high violence rates.
FBI Director James Comey addressed the Ferguson Effect during a recent news conference on civil rights and law enforcement. He acknowledged the need for police scrutiny but cautioned against handcuffing police from proactive crime prevention.
His words should be heeded in the light of the violent rampage sweeping America's 63 largest cities. In the first three months of this year, reported killings mushroomed nine percent according to a Violent Crime Survey released by the Major Cities Chiefs Police Association.
This surge follows a 6.2 percent rise in murders in 2015, which signaled a reversal of a decades long trend of declines. Murders nationwide fell six percent in 2014, 6.9 percent in 2013 and 1.7 percent in 2012, FBI statistics show.
The evidence is indisputable that murders have mounted since the Ferguson upheaval. The only honest debate should be over whether a change in law enforcement methods contributed to the uptick after Ferguson's police came under investigation from the Department of Justice.
The FBI's director admits the reason for the murder hike is difficult to pinpoint. "It's hard because it's almost surely not one reason," Comey told reporters. "And there's likely not to be a single answer in a single place." Hardly comforting words from the nation's top law enforcement official.
Cities experiencing an upsurge in violence this year are the usual suspects. In Chicago, homicides have ballooned 41 percent in the first quarter, earning it the dubious designation as America's Murder Capital. Ironically, Chicago has some of America's stiffest gun laws.
In Los Angeles, murders have risen 24 percent over the first quarter of 2015. Homicides are also on the upswing in Baltimore, Las Vegas, Memphis, Atlanta, San Antonio and about 18 other large cities spread across the country.
If these trends continue, America will have to confront this growing menace threatening to turn cities into killing fields. The nation should look to its law enforcement leaders for answers before its too late. Police need community support, not heckling from politically-motivated activists.
This Memorial Day would be a good time for citizens of all color to show their respect for the men and women who honorably wear the badge of law enforcement. Without these peace makers, America's cities are in danger of the collapsing into civil chaos.
Monday, May 30, 2016
Monday, May 23, 2016
Obituary: Free Speech (1791-2016)
Freedom of speech and expression, hallmarks of American democracy, no longer exist in this country. The death of these uniquely American principles went unnoticed by a citizenry more interested in political correctness. No one mourned during the final rites for these constitutional guarantees.
Death came slowly as the freedoms were usurped over decades by courts, legislatures, universities, schools, art museums, religions, media and ethnic activists. Warnings from freedom advocates were ignored as these institutions and others inflicted mortal wounds by curtailing expression in America.
America's founders enshrined freedom of speech in the First Amendment to the Bill of Rights. These fearless leaders, chafing under the yoke of British censorship, wanted to make it unambiguously clear that freedom of speech would not be abridged in the new democracy.
Congress wasted no time in approving the first ten amendments at its inaugural session in 1789. After ratification by three-fourths of the state legislatures, the amendments officially became part of the U.S. Constitution on December 15, 1791.
In recent years, subversive attacks on the First Amendment have spread like a virus over this great land. Protections of freedom of expression have been eroded by those with an agenda to criminalize speech that does not conform to whatever norm the cultural demagogues deem appropriate.
Some reading this obituary will scoff at the notion of the death of free speech. These are the very individuals who often are most critical of expressions they consider hurtful, unsympathetic or contrary to their own political, religious and moral belief system.
These folks support free speech, but only if it agrees with their viewpoint. Here are examples of the calculated, often malicious, encroachment on free expression in America today.
U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse has openly campaigned for a law to stifle debate of climate change views held by liberals. The Democratic senator from Rhode Island has called for the jailing of scientists, politicians and citizens who disagree with man-made climate change.
At the University of Michigan, administrators banned "American Sniper" on campus after 300 students protested that the depiction of Navy Seal Chris Kyle promoted bigotry toward Muslims. However, the movie played worldwide without sparking a single incident.
American corporations have been made to tow the progressive cultural line, also. When the head of Chick-fil-A answered a reporter's questions about his views on marriage, some city councils refused to allow the restaurant chain to open stores in airports in an effort to stifle his freedom of speech.
The Boston Museum of Fine Arts was accused of "yellow face" cultural insensitivity because it allowed visitors to wear a kimono as part of an interactive art presentation. After a howl of protests, the museum was forced to kowtow to activists determined to limit free expression.
A high school student in Revere, Massachusetts used social media to tweet that many voters in her city's mayoral election were not legal citizens. The school reprimanded and eventually removed her from the cheerleader squad for the remainder of the year for airing her views publicly.
These incidents may seem trivial to some. But there are hundreds more like them every day in America. They are eerie reminders of what happened in Nazi Germany. Hitler's propagandists determined what was appropriate speech and what was not. Soon all freedoms were lost.
Today in America, self-appointed cultural progressives, aggrieved minorities, unelected judges, Democratic legislators, extremist Muslims, Marxist professors and media ideologues have made it their mission to adhere public discourse to their own views and narratives.
This limits vigorous debate and suppresses public disagreement. That is not what the founders intended.
Free speech means expression unfiltered, often disagreeable, sometimes outrageous, contentious, dishonest and perhaps even racist. Accusations of bigotry, cultural sensitivity or psychological harm are no justification to prohibit free speech.
Any limits on free speech are threats to our democracy and should be rejected. Too many Americans sheepishly go along with the progressive crowd to validate their own tolerance. That above all else led to the untimely death of free speech.
Real tolerance, the kind the founders had in mind, gave every American the right to ignore others' harmful, hateful, hurtful speech. That lesson was lost on a generation of crybabies, grievance nitpickers, phony activists and bitter dissidents.
Free Speech. Rest in Peace.
Death came slowly as the freedoms were usurped over decades by courts, legislatures, universities, schools, art museums, religions, media and ethnic activists. Warnings from freedom advocates were ignored as these institutions and others inflicted mortal wounds by curtailing expression in America.
America's founders enshrined freedom of speech in the First Amendment to the Bill of Rights. These fearless leaders, chafing under the yoke of British censorship, wanted to make it unambiguously clear that freedom of speech would not be abridged in the new democracy.
Congress wasted no time in approving the first ten amendments at its inaugural session in 1789. After ratification by three-fourths of the state legislatures, the amendments officially became part of the U.S. Constitution on December 15, 1791.
In recent years, subversive attacks on the First Amendment have spread like a virus over this great land. Protections of freedom of expression have been eroded by those with an agenda to criminalize speech that does not conform to whatever norm the cultural demagogues deem appropriate.
Some reading this obituary will scoff at the notion of the death of free speech. These are the very individuals who often are most critical of expressions they consider hurtful, unsympathetic or contrary to their own political, religious and moral belief system.
These folks support free speech, but only if it agrees with their viewpoint. Here are examples of the calculated, often malicious, encroachment on free expression in America today.
U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse has openly campaigned for a law to stifle debate of climate change views held by liberals. The Democratic senator from Rhode Island has called for the jailing of scientists, politicians and citizens who disagree with man-made climate change.
At the University of Michigan, administrators banned "American Sniper" on campus after 300 students protested that the depiction of Navy Seal Chris Kyle promoted bigotry toward Muslims. However, the movie played worldwide without sparking a single incident.
American corporations have been made to tow the progressive cultural line, also. When the head of Chick-fil-A answered a reporter's questions about his views on marriage, some city councils refused to allow the restaurant chain to open stores in airports in an effort to stifle his freedom of speech.
The Boston Museum of Fine Arts was accused of "yellow face" cultural insensitivity because it allowed visitors to wear a kimono as part of an interactive art presentation. After a howl of protests, the museum was forced to kowtow to activists determined to limit free expression.
A high school student in Revere, Massachusetts used social media to tweet that many voters in her city's mayoral election were not legal citizens. The school reprimanded and eventually removed her from the cheerleader squad for the remainder of the year for airing her views publicly.
These incidents may seem trivial to some. But there are hundreds more like them every day in America. They are eerie reminders of what happened in Nazi Germany. Hitler's propagandists determined what was appropriate speech and what was not. Soon all freedoms were lost.
Today in America, self-appointed cultural progressives, aggrieved minorities, unelected judges, Democratic legislators, extremist Muslims, Marxist professors and media ideologues have made it their mission to adhere public discourse to their own views and narratives.
This limits vigorous debate and suppresses public disagreement. That is not what the founders intended.
Free speech means expression unfiltered, often disagreeable, sometimes outrageous, contentious, dishonest and perhaps even racist. Accusations of bigotry, cultural sensitivity or psychological harm are no justification to prohibit free speech.
Any limits on free speech are threats to our democracy and should be rejected. Too many Americans sheepishly go along with the progressive crowd to validate their own tolerance. That above all else led to the untimely death of free speech.
Real tolerance, the kind the founders had in mind, gave every American the right to ignore others' harmful, hateful, hurtful speech. That lesson was lost on a generation of crybabies, grievance nitpickers, phony activists and bitter dissidents.
Free Speech. Rest in Peace.
Monday, May 16, 2016
Bathroom Law: What Happened to Common Sense?
The worst jobs report in seven months. Stagnant wage growth. More Americans working part-time. Mounting economic malaise. These "trivial" issues have been shoved off the news media's agenda by useful political idiots preoccupied with allowing transgender men to pee in the girl's bathroom.
This counterfeit political issue has dominated social media, the news talk shows and the cable networks. It has been dishonestly labeled as the civil rights issue of the 21st century. To put it politely as possible, it is a crude political ploy by Democrats to smear average Americans as bigots.
This latest gender outcry was stoked by the North Carolina legislature, which approved a measure requiring individuals to use public bathrooms, showers and changing facilities that correspond to their birth sex. Few in the media have read the five-page law, officially known as House Bill 2.
That hasn't stopped the talking hairdos and their print patsies from a disinformation campaign against the legislation. The liberal media has branded the law as discriminatory against the LGBT (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender) community, despite LGBT accommodations in House Bill 2.
What has gone unreported is that the legislature was forced to act after the Democrat controlled Charlotte City Council approved a measure requiring businesses, governments and public schools to allow transgender individuals to use not only women's bathrooms, but showers and locker rooms, too.
Prior to the city's action, the state's governor attempted to cobble together a compromise. The Charlotte Democrats middle-fingered the governor, even after being warned the state constitution forbids cities from enacting laws placing public requirements on businesses and governments.
The Democrats, egged on by LGBT activists, picked a fight with the Republican legislature to create a political storm. Their goal was to tar Republicans with charges they were anti-LGBT, homophobic, racist, sexist, bigots. It is Page 1 of the Democratic Party election manual.
The lapdog media painted the LGBT crowd as victims and compromised its journalistic integrity by failing to inform Americans how far the Charlotte legislation went, suggesting it only applied to bathrooms. The news cartel also ignored the state law's language to facilitate unisex bathrooms.
The Charlotte ordinance provided an open bathroom door to everyone. A male or female can claim whatever gender identity they choose to use the facilities of his or her choice. Nothing in the law prevents any male from using the women's bathroom or showers.
The Charlotte law is silent how an individual certifies his or her gender identity. As a result, anyone, regardless of how he or she is dressed, can stroll into whatever shower, locker room, steam room, bathroom or changing facility they elect. No one can stop them. Not even the police.
A sexual predator can use the loophole to enter a woman's bathroom, shower, locker room or changing facility. There is no recourse under the law for women who might be alarmed over being followed in the restroom by a male. Common sense was discarded to satisfy a minority.
According to the latest data from the the National Health Institute Study, 1.6 percent of the population identifies as LGBT. Transgender people make up a much smaller percentage of Americans. Less than one percent (0.7%) self-reported as transgender in the study conducted in 2014.
This minuscule minority has forced its will on the majority of Americans. To be clear, there are no females clamoring for access to the men's urinal. Transgender men are the ones seeking validation rather than accommodation. They are insisting on access to a women's sanctuary in public places.
The Obama Administration slavishly sided with the LGBT mob. Within days of the state legislature's action, bullies in the Department of Education ordered all public schools and universities to open their restrooms and showers to students "consistent with their gender identity."
In a letter to America's 16,500 school districts and 7,000 colleges, the education Gestapo went even further than the city of Charlotte. It decreed that schools and colleges cannot prevent transgender students from participating in men's or women's sports, regardless of their birth sex.
The brown-shirted education collaborators have already made it clear they will blackmail public schools and universities, if needed. They are threatening to jerk federal funding if their dictatorial edict is challenged. This fascist mandate is more evidence of an out-of-control federal government.
The North Carolina legislature acted with uncommon sense. The men and women in the statehouse understood the safety menace to their spouses, daughters and grandchildren. They don't care about political correctness. Unfortunately, they have been overruled by unelected federal bureaucrats.
Common sense has been buried in the name of a pseudo sexual identity crisis fueled by Democrats' desire to create a wedge issue to hammer Republicans in the general election. They are not interested in compromise. Democrats are using regulatory manifesto to subvert Congressional prerogative.
There is absolutely nothing discriminatory about requiring people to use facilities according to their birth sex. Unnecessarily exposing millions of women and girls to sexual predators, rapists and pedophiles can never be justified based on the specious grievances of a few.
If people who are transgender truly seek respect, they are going about it in a tragically flawed way.
This counterfeit political issue has dominated social media, the news talk shows and the cable networks. It has been dishonestly labeled as the civil rights issue of the 21st century. To put it politely as possible, it is a crude political ploy by Democrats to smear average Americans as bigots.
This latest gender outcry was stoked by the North Carolina legislature, which approved a measure requiring individuals to use public bathrooms, showers and changing facilities that correspond to their birth sex. Few in the media have read the five-page law, officially known as House Bill 2.
That hasn't stopped the talking hairdos and their print patsies from a disinformation campaign against the legislation. The liberal media has branded the law as discriminatory against the LGBT (Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, Transgender) community, despite LGBT accommodations in House Bill 2.
What has gone unreported is that the legislature was forced to act after the Democrat controlled Charlotte City Council approved a measure requiring businesses, governments and public schools to allow transgender individuals to use not only women's bathrooms, but showers and locker rooms, too.
Prior to the city's action, the state's governor attempted to cobble together a compromise. The Charlotte Democrats middle-fingered the governor, even after being warned the state constitution forbids cities from enacting laws placing public requirements on businesses and governments.
The Democrats, egged on by LGBT activists, picked a fight with the Republican legislature to create a political storm. Their goal was to tar Republicans with charges they were anti-LGBT, homophobic, racist, sexist, bigots. It is Page 1 of the Democratic Party election manual.
The lapdog media painted the LGBT crowd as victims and compromised its journalistic integrity by failing to inform Americans how far the Charlotte legislation went, suggesting it only applied to bathrooms. The news cartel also ignored the state law's language to facilitate unisex bathrooms.
The Charlotte ordinance provided an open bathroom door to everyone. A male or female can claim whatever gender identity they choose to use the facilities of his or her choice. Nothing in the law prevents any male from using the women's bathroom or showers.
The Charlotte law is silent how an individual certifies his or her gender identity. As a result, anyone, regardless of how he or she is dressed, can stroll into whatever shower, locker room, steam room, bathroom or changing facility they elect. No one can stop them. Not even the police.
A sexual predator can use the loophole to enter a woman's bathroom, shower, locker room or changing facility. There is no recourse under the law for women who might be alarmed over being followed in the restroom by a male. Common sense was discarded to satisfy a minority.
According to the latest data from the the National Health Institute Study, 1.6 percent of the population identifies as LGBT. Transgender people make up a much smaller percentage of Americans. Less than one percent (0.7%) self-reported as transgender in the study conducted in 2014.
This minuscule minority has forced its will on the majority of Americans. To be clear, there are no females clamoring for access to the men's urinal. Transgender men are the ones seeking validation rather than accommodation. They are insisting on access to a women's sanctuary in public places.
The Obama Administration slavishly sided with the LGBT mob. Within days of the state legislature's action, bullies in the Department of Education ordered all public schools and universities to open their restrooms and showers to students "consistent with their gender identity."
In a letter to America's 16,500 school districts and 7,000 colleges, the education Gestapo went even further than the city of Charlotte. It decreed that schools and colleges cannot prevent transgender students from participating in men's or women's sports, regardless of their birth sex.
The brown-shirted education collaborators have already made it clear they will blackmail public schools and universities, if needed. They are threatening to jerk federal funding if their dictatorial edict is challenged. This fascist mandate is more evidence of an out-of-control federal government.
The North Carolina legislature acted with uncommon sense. The men and women in the statehouse understood the safety menace to their spouses, daughters and grandchildren. They don't care about political correctness. Unfortunately, they have been overruled by unelected federal bureaucrats.
Common sense has been buried in the name of a pseudo sexual identity crisis fueled by Democrats' desire to create a wedge issue to hammer Republicans in the general election. They are not interested in compromise. Democrats are using regulatory manifesto to subvert Congressional prerogative.
There is absolutely nothing discriminatory about requiring people to use facilities according to their birth sex. Unnecessarily exposing millions of women and girls to sexual predators, rapists and pedophiles can never be justified based on the specious grievances of a few.
If people who are transgender truly seek respect, they are going about it in a tragically flawed way.
Monday, May 9, 2016
Why The Donald Trumped The GOP Field
Virtually no one gave him a chance. The pundits guffawed. The Republican establishment winked at the thought he could actually win the presidential primary. The news media wrote off his candidacy. His 16 GOP opponents sniffed at his celebrity status and mocked his lack of political experience.
Yet it should have been clear from the beginning of the Republican presidential primary season that Donald Trump had something none of his rivals possessed. He understood the mood of Republican voters better than even Washington's elite political class. His instincts trumped their voter data.
From his campaign liftoff until Indiana's make-or-break primary last week, Trump tapped into the anger boiling in the party among voters fed up with the lapdog Republican leadership and their lemming-like cohorts in the House and Senate. GOP voters felt betrayed, ignored and rebuked.
Only Trump seized upon that voter contempt. He knew the party's rank-and-file loyalists were dumbstruck by the utter failure of Republican majorities in the House and Senate to stop President Obama from implementing his agenda. They yearned for a give-em-hell outsider, not the status quo.
Party voters were sick and tired of the excuses of cowardly leaders, Mitch McConnell and John Boehner. The duo surrendered to Mr. Obama on the federal budget and waved the white flag on immigration, while reminding voters they were helpless because they didn't control The Oval Office.
Their ineptness left the door open for an anti-Republican, anti-politician.
Trump established his anti-Washington bonafides by tackling the immigration issue, promising to build a wall on the border with Mexico. That single issue jump-started his campaign. His game plan was to dominate the news cycles, forcing his opponents to play catch-up on issues.
It was a brilliant strategy that left the field struggling to break through the media clutter with their warmed-over stump speeches. The candidates were compelled to talk about Trump's agenda. They spent the entire campaign reacting instead of being on the offensive.
While his opponents lit up the airwaves with commercials, Trump defied conventional wisdom by advertising sparingly. Instead, he appeared non-stop on television news shows without spending a dime. The alphabet networks were happy to oblige, since Trump lured record audience numbers.
He eschewed a political ground campaign in favor of massive rallies. He addressed the raucous crowds without a scripted message. He unleashed outrageous, politically incorrect statements to thunderous applause. His staff was Lilliputian compared to the other candidates' entourages.
Even after early primary wins, the Republican know-it-alls refused to acknowledge Trump could emerge with the nomination. The pundits claimed he lost each one of the endless string of debates. It never mattered. His appeal metastasized and his opponents grew desperate.
Trump was connecting with voters, especially on issues such as trade and jobs. His message was unadorned by political speak. He was direct, bombastic and belittled the other contestants. He was politically unpolished. He didn't rely on polls and focus groups. He winged it on guts and guile.
The GOP presidential aspirants were left gasping for traction. Jeb Bush never got the memo that the Republican electorate was fatigued with the Bush political dynasty. He reminded Republicans of the old-guard, by-the-book, establishment bosses who have ruled the party with an iron fist for decades.
Marco Rubio offered a fresh face and a positive message, both sorely missing in the last two GOP runs for the White House. But he leaned too heavily on consultants who advised him to become an attack dog, an unfamiliar role that left voters worried about his character.
John Kasich was mired in the past, continually harping about his experience in Washington to an electorate that held its nose every time he recited his Beltway record. Ben Carson was a gracious, well-mannered, intelligent man ill prepared for the political wars. Nice guys often finish last.
That brings us to Senator Ted Cruz, a constitutionalist revered by the party's conservative wing. His grasp of issues was uncanny but his brusque tone and dour demeanor made him seem like a grouch. He preached conservatism to voters more interested in shaking up the ruling establishment.
Undoubtedly, Trump's celebrity status was part of his appeal. But that isn't surprising. This is the Age of Celebrity. The current president ran as a political rock star, complete with fainting worshipers and concert-like crowds. Voters take their cues from social media, not The New York Times.
The Republican establishment served up uninspiring John McCain and Mitt Romney in the last two elections. Mannered men with no stomach for the bare-knuckled campaigning of today. GOP voters were in no mood for the same dull suits. They wanted a raw-meat, barnyard brawler.
Those who abhor Trump cling to the notion that the New Yorker won only because of the crowded field. That smacks of sour grapes. Trump was victorious because he gave Republican voters what they wanted. No one else ever figured out the GOP electorate had morphed into an fuming mob.
The Republican electorate no longer resembles your Dad's Grand Old Party. They are more moderate, less doctrinal, anti-free-trade and decidedly isolationist. Trump's candidacy has not changed the party. The electorate has embraced positions once unthinkable for conservatives.
Only Trump grasped the shift. Blue-collar workers, traditionally reliably Democrats, showed up at rallies and voted for Trump in open primaries. Republicans turned out in record numbers at the polls and Trump collected more popular voters than previous GOP presidential contenders.
Now the naysayers are predicting that Democratic Party presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton will crush Trump in a landslide, assuming she can finally dispatch a 74-year old socialist. Yet Clinton has more baggage than the overhead bins of a 100 Southwest Airlines flights.
The general election will likely evolve into a mudslinging, no-holes barred cage fight. If it does, don't bet against Donald Trump. Those who underestimate the billionaire businessman do so at their own peril. Just ask the 16 former Republican presidential contenders.
Yet it should have been clear from the beginning of the Republican presidential primary season that Donald Trump had something none of his rivals possessed. He understood the mood of Republican voters better than even Washington's elite political class. His instincts trumped their voter data.
From his campaign liftoff until Indiana's make-or-break primary last week, Trump tapped into the anger boiling in the party among voters fed up with the lapdog Republican leadership and their lemming-like cohorts in the House and Senate. GOP voters felt betrayed, ignored and rebuked.
Only Trump seized upon that voter contempt. He knew the party's rank-and-file loyalists were dumbstruck by the utter failure of Republican majorities in the House and Senate to stop President Obama from implementing his agenda. They yearned for a give-em-hell outsider, not the status quo.
Party voters were sick and tired of the excuses of cowardly leaders, Mitch McConnell and John Boehner. The duo surrendered to Mr. Obama on the federal budget and waved the white flag on immigration, while reminding voters they were helpless because they didn't control The Oval Office.
Their ineptness left the door open for an anti-Republican, anti-politician.
Trump established his anti-Washington bonafides by tackling the immigration issue, promising to build a wall on the border with Mexico. That single issue jump-started his campaign. His game plan was to dominate the news cycles, forcing his opponents to play catch-up on issues.
It was a brilliant strategy that left the field struggling to break through the media clutter with their warmed-over stump speeches. The candidates were compelled to talk about Trump's agenda. They spent the entire campaign reacting instead of being on the offensive.
While his opponents lit up the airwaves with commercials, Trump defied conventional wisdom by advertising sparingly. Instead, he appeared non-stop on television news shows without spending a dime. The alphabet networks were happy to oblige, since Trump lured record audience numbers.
He eschewed a political ground campaign in favor of massive rallies. He addressed the raucous crowds without a scripted message. He unleashed outrageous, politically incorrect statements to thunderous applause. His staff was Lilliputian compared to the other candidates' entourages.
Even after early primary wins, the Republican know-it-alls refused to acknowledge Trump could emerge with the nomination. The pundits claimed he lost each one of the endless string of debates. It never mattered. His appeal metastasized and his opponents grew desperate.
Trump was connecting with voters, especially on issues such as trade and jobs. His message was unadorned by political speak. He was direct, bombastic and belittled the other contestants. He was politically unpolished. He didn't rely on polls and focus groups. He winged it on guts and guile.
The GOP presidential aspirants were left gasping for traction. Jeb Bush never got the memo that the Republican electorate was fatigued with the Bush political dynasty. He reminded Republicans of the old-guard, by-the-book, establishment bosses who have ruled the party with an iron fist for decades.
Marco Rubio offered a fresh face and a positive message, both sorely missing in the last two GOP runs for the White House. But he leaned too heavily on consultants who advised him to become an attack dog, an unfamiliar role that left voters worried about his character.
John Kasich was mired in the past, continually harping about his experience in Washington to an electorate that held its nose every time he recited his Beltway record. Ben Carson was a gracious, well-mannered, intelligent man ill prepared for the political wars. Nice guys often finish last.
That brings us to Senator Ted Cruz, a constitutionalist revered by the party's conservative wing. His grasp of issues was uncanny but his brusque tone and dour demeanor made him seem like a grouch. He preached conservatism to voters more interested in shaking up the ruling establishment.
Undoubtedly, Trump's celebrity status was part of his appeal. But that isn't surprising. This is the Age of Celebrity. The current president ran as a political rock star, complete with fainting worshipers and concert-like crowds. Voters take their cues from social media, not The New York Times.
The Republican establishment served up uninspiring John McCain and Mitt Romney in the last two elections. Mannered men with no stomach for the bare-knuckled campaigning of today. GOP voters were in no mood for the same dull suits. They wanted a raw-meat, barnyard brawler.
Those who abhor Trump cling to the notion that the New Yorker won only because of the crowded field. That smacks of sour grapes. Trump was victorious because he gave Republican voters what they wanted. No one else ever figured out the GOP electorate had morphed into an fuming mob.
The Republican electorate no longer resembles your Dad's Grand Old Party. They are more moderate, less doctrinal, anti-free-trade and decidedly isolationist. Trump's candidacy has not changed the party. The electorate has embraced positions once unthinkable for conservatives.
Only Trump grasped the shift. Blue-collar workers, traditionally reliably Democrats, showed up at rallies and voted for Trump in open primaries. Republicans turned out in record numbers at the polls and Trump collected more popular voters than previous GOP presidential contenders.
Now the naysayers are predicting that Democratic Party presumptive nominee Hillary Clinton will crush Trump in a landslide, assuming she can finally dispatch a 74-year old socialist. Yet Clinton has more baggage than the overhead bins of a 100 Southwest Airlines flights.
The general election will likely evolve into a mudslinging, no-holes barred cage fight. If it does, don't bet against Donald Trump. Those who underestimate the billionaire businessman do so at their own peril. Just ask the 16 former Republican presidential contenders.
Monday, May 2, 2016
Contested Conventions: A Political Donnybrook
The media mob, political pundits and Republican voters are hyperventilating over the prospect of a contested political convention this summer. Although, the likelihood decreases with each Donald Trump primary victory, the cacophony grows. Shrill voices are predicting Armageddon.
The problem with the verbal histrionics is a lack of historical perspective. Until the 1970's, contested political conventions were the norm rather than the exception. In that decade, however, states began a stampede to hold presidential primaries to pick delegates to the party convention.
Before the primaries, there were some epic convention hijinks in both political parties. Terms like "horse trading," "smoke-filled rooms" and "back-room handshakes" were often used to describe the wheeling and dealing at the raucous conventions.
No convention in this era will likely top the one in 1924. John W. Davis waited until the 103rd ballot to be crowned the Democratic Party's nominee. That record has stood for 92 years. He was a compromise candidate after two other politicians could not muster a majority.
Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson was the last candidate not to win the nomination on the first ballot at the 1952 convention. He secured the nomination on the third ballot. The last GOP convention that went more than one ballot happened in 1948.
That year Thomas Dewey arrived at the convention that year with the most delegates in his pocket. But there were strong challenges from two other candidates. Dewey prevailed on the third ballot. However, it was a hallow victory. He lost the presidency to Democrat Harry Truman.
Throughout history, presidential candidates who secure the nomination on the second ballot or later have suffered the same fate. In 61 percent of the cases, the party nominee lost the general election, according to a study undertaken by Pew Research.
That helps explain why political parties abhor contested conventions. The outcome usually leaves emotional and political scars that make it nearly impossible for the nominee to unite the party. The same concerns arise when no single candidate secures the required votes prior to the convention.
However, it is not necessarily a bad omen for the Republican Party.
Since the Republican Party's first convention in 1856, there have been 10 times when no candidate arrived with a majority of delegates. If you're a Trump supporter, pay attention. In seven of those conventions, the eventual winner was plucked off the also-ran list.
Out of those 10 contested conventions, six Republican nominees went all the way to the Oval Office.
The last time a candidate of either party tiptoed into the convention without a majority of delegates was 1984. Eventual nominee Walter Mondale was a few dozen short of the magic number. But he cruised to the nomination after an eleventh hour blockade by Gary Hart was short-circuited.
In 1976, a battered President Gerald Ford paraded into Kansas City for the Republican Convention 226 delegates short of claiming the nomination. Ronald Reagan had survived the bare-knuckled primary season with only 105 less delegates than the sitting president.
After a bloody floor fight over rules, the Ford forces emerged victorious, clearing the way for the president to secure enough uncommitted delegates to win on the first ballot. But it was a squeaker. Ford's margin of victory over Reagan was 87 delegates.
Notably, both Ford and Mondale saw their dreams of winning the general election dashed.
With that historical perspective, the current fear and loathing over a contested convention appears somewhat justified. There remains a good chance Trump will claim the nomination outright with enough delegates before the gavel goes down on the convention, making the point moot.
If Trump falls short, then the delegates elected by the people will fulfill their duty in nominating a presidential candidate. There is nothing nefarious, illegal or unfair about the process. The delegate rules were in place before the primaries were launched.
But there is one caveat. If a candidate or party deal maker changes the rules at the convention, then all hell will break loose. In that case, the Republican Party will be signing its own death warrant and Democrats will be more than happy to pull the switch to kill the GOP's election chances.
The problem with the verbal histrionics is a lack of historical perspective. Until the 1970's, contested political conventions were the norm rather than the exception. In that decade, however, states began a stampede to hold presidential primaries to pick delegates to the party convention.
Before the primaries, there were some epic convention hijinks in both political parties. Terms like "horse trading," "smoke-filled rooms" and "back-room handshakes" were often used to describe the wheeling and dealing at the raucous conventions.
No convention in this era will likely top the one in 1924. John W. Davis waited until the 103rd ballot to be crowned the Democratic Party's nominee. That record has stood for 92 years. He was a compromise candidate after two other politicians could not muster a majority.
Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson was the last candidate not to win the nomination on the first ballot at the 1952 convention. He secured the nomination on the third ballot. The last GOP convention that went more than one ballot happened in 1948.
That year Thomas Dewey arrived at the convention that year with the most delegates in his pocket. But there were strong challenges from two other candidates. Dewey prevailed on the third ballot. However, it was a hallow victory. He lost the presidency to Democrat Harry Truman.
Throughout history, presidential candidates who secure the nomination on the second ballot or later have suffered the same fate. In 61 percent of the cases, the party nominee lost the general election, according to a study undertaken by Pew Research.
That helps explain why political parties abhor contested conventions. The outcome usually leaves emotional and political scars that make it nearly impossible for the nominee to unite the party. The same concerns arise when no single candidate secures the required votes prior to the convention.
However, it is not necessarily a bad omen for the Republican Party.
Since the Republican Party's first convention in 1856, there have been 10 times when no candidate arrived with a majority of delegates. If you're a Trump supporter, pay attention. In seven of those conventions, the eventual winner was plucked off the also-ran list.
Out of those 10 contested conventions, six Republican nominees went all the way to the Oval Office.
The last time a candidate of either party tiptoed into the convention without a majority of delegates was 1984. Eventual nominee Walter Mondale was a few dozen short of the magic number. But he cruised to the nomination after an eleventh hour blockade by Gary Hart was short-circuited.
In 1976, a battered President Gerald Ford paraded into Kansas City for the Republican Convention 226 delegates short of claiming the nomination. Ronald Reagan had survived the bare-knuckled primary season with only 105 less delegates than the sitting president.
After a bloody floor fight over rules, the Ford forces emerged victorious, clearing the way for the president to secure enough uncommitted delegates to win on the first ballot. But it was a squeaker. Ford's margin of victory over Reagan was 87 delegates.
Notably, both Ford and Mondale saw their dreams of winning the general election dashed.
With that historical perspective, the current fear and loathing over a contested convention appears somewhat justified. There remains a good chance Trump will claim the nomination outright with enough delegates before the gavel goes down on the convention, making the point moot.
If Trump falls short, then the delegates elected by the people will fulfill their duty in nominating a presidential candidate. There is nothing nefarious, illegal or unfair about the process. The delegate rules were in place before the primaries were launched.
But there is one caveat. If a candidate or party deal maker changes the rules at the convention, then all hell will break loose. In that case, the Republican Party will be signing its own death warrant and Democrats will be more than happy to pull the switch to kill the GOP's election chances.