Wage-Price Spiral Threatens American Economy

Menacing economic storm clouds looming on the horizon threaten America's growth.  Wages are rising at the highest peak in decades. Prices for goods and services are spiking.  As a result, inflation is marching upward, triggering a risk of a wage-price spiral that will cripple the economy.

During the double-digit inflation of the 1970's, wages and prices chased each other.  Spiraling inflation eroded the standard of living for workers.  Employees demanded higher wages to offset inflation's erosion of their purchasing power.  Businesses, in turn, jacked up prices to cover the increased wages.   

This never ending cycle of wage-price pressure fueled a 12% inflation rate in 1974. Once started, wage-price spirals are like trying to brake a speeding locomotive.  The inflation rate zoomed to 14.5% in 1980. Companies' profits slumped and consumer spending plunged, stalling economic growth.

After years of dithering, the Federal Reserve finally acted in 1979 when Paul Vocker took the reins.  He ended the days of easy money by rapidly hiking interest rates.  The prime lending rate kept climbing until it hit 21%.  Volcker's tough medicine stabilized prices, but triggered two recessions.

There are eerie similarities between that inflationary crisis and today's economic environment.  Most economists and stock market promoters shun any comparison because they fear the stock market will crater.  They have a boatload of reasons why this period of swollen inflation will be different.

As the inflationary storms brewed last year, economists, stock analysts and the Federal Reserve Bank dismissed surging prices as a transitory hiccup. They predicted the supply side would soon catch up with the post-pandemic spending spree, restoring price equilibrium.  They were appallingly wrong.

Despite warnings from a few bank CEO's, the Fed stubbornly dug in its heels on increasing interest rates to temper inflation.  When the Fed finally changed direction, it was too late.  Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has signaled three interest rate hikes this year. The threat of a fourth is a real possibility.

The Fed's inaction is hard to fathom.  The data has been streaming in from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the Department of Commerce and the Federal Reserve's 12 district banks. (Note: Data used in this blog comes from those three sources.) The indicators were clear but Powell demurred.  

Since last year, the economy has been on a treadmill of higher wages and higher prices.  Private sector wages increased 4.1% in November the largest jump since September of 2001 when wages spiked 5%. Both figures are 12-month rolling averages. Fourth quarter gains were 4% as wages keep rising.    

In 1974, wages skyrocketed 6%, contributing to a double-digit inflationary rate. The U.S. may soon hit that number because every day brings news of more companies hiking wages to attract workers and then hiking prices. Inflation in November hit 7% and forecasts are for higher rates ahead. 

The top line inflation number doesn't tell the whole story.  Food prices were up 5% in November.  Energy costs escalated 29.3% on a 12-month rolling average.  In the 1970's, runaway oil prices were one of the key drivers of inflation.  Few will concede the connection today.  

The Fed's key inflation gauge, Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index or PCE Price Index, soared by 5.8% for the year.  That topped the previous period's increase of 5.7%, becoming the fastest inflation since 1982.  This is exactly what happened in the 1970's. Denial doesn't change facts.

Workers are hard to find, adding to wage pressure.  Thousands either left their jobs or were furloughed or terminated in the pandemic.  A large number have decided to remain on the sidelines. Others rejoined their firms, then left for higher paying jobs.  The share of workers leaving their jobs has risen to 3%.

The labor participation rate--an estimate of the economy's workforce--stands at 61.9%, which is 1.5 percentage points lower than the level in February, 2020. It means there are less people working or actively looking for a job. There are currently nearly 11 million job openings in the U.S.

An estimated 10 million workers are missing, compared to the pre-pandemic numbers. President Biden points to the 3.9% unemployment rate as proof the job market is robust.  However, that figure does not include millions of discouraged workers and those marginally attached to the workforce.

The wage-price spiral deniers point to the fourth-quarter 6.9% growth in the country's Gross Domestic Product, the broadest measure of the nation's production of goods and services, as proof of a healthy economy. However, most of the growth owed to businesses restocking depleted inventory.

That means the GDP uptick was not the result of increased consumer spending. Excluding the inventory effects, the nation's output grew at a puny 1.9% in the fourth quarter. That is a worrying sign for economic growth this year.  It portends only modest gains in growth for this year. 

All the data paints an ominous economic landscape. Inflation continues unabated.  Wages are billowing to catch up in a job market that has more openings than qualified workers.  Inflation and wages moving in tandem will feed the vicious inflationary cycle that will force the Fed to keep boosting interest rates.

Because the Fed sat on its hands for too long, the danger is an overcorrection.  As the Fed tinkers with rates, the cost of borrowing, credit card debt, car financing, home mortgages and home equity loans  spike.  In the face of the onslaught, consumer spending will retreat, making a recession more likely.

The Fed is standing on a precarious precipice. With the mid-terms lurking, it may be difficult for the Fed to remain independent and do what's best for the long term, instead of caving to political pressure. If the Fed crawfishes on its announced rate hike schedule, inflation will get worse.        

Biden's Year One: Unchecked Chaos and Division

President Biden campaigned for the nation's top office as a uniter.  He lectured there were no Red or Blue States, just Americans.  He promised an end to chaos.  The adults were moving into Washington to fix America.  After one year in office, there is more division, more chaos and less trust in government.

In poll after poll, Americans agree on just one issue: the country is hopelessly divided.  In an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll published in October, eight in ten adults expressed dismay at the bitter division.  A Pew Research poll found 85% of Americans are weary of the political divide.

A USA Today/Suffolk University poll found 66% of respondents think the U.S. is on the "wrong track", while just 20% believe it is going in the "right direction." This same poll put Mr. Biden's approval rating at 38%, one of the lowest levels recorded for the first year of a president's term.   

Polls indicate a chasm has been expanding since the pandemic.  Mr. Biden's vaccine mandates and demonization of the unvaccinated have split Americans into two camps, pitting those wanting to make their health decisions against those who believe government can dictate those choices.

When the president went to Georgia to deliver his roundly criticized speech on voting rights, he did not sound like a healer.  Instead, he accused those who opposed his attempt to federalize elections as siding with racists, such as Bull Conner, George Wallace and Confederate president Jefferson Davis.

He could have included in that number former West Virginia Senator Robert Byrd, who was a member of the Ku Klux Klan at one time. But, Byrd was a Democrat, so he gets a pass.  Mr. Biden eulogized Byrd's leadership,  but forgot to mention the senator filibustered against the 1964 Civil Rights Act. 

Mr. Biden, who claimed at a news conference he achieved more in his first year than any other president, has presided over the most chaotic period in history.  Inflation is spiraling, slapping a hidden tax on every American.  His anti-fossil fuel policies spiked gas prices, hurting average households.   

Food prices are ballooning.  Apartment rents are soaring.  Homes are becoming unaffordable for many Americans as prices skyrocket. COVID is still raging. The tide of illegal immigrants invading the southern border reached a peak in 2021. Empty shelves dot grocery stores in America.  

Crime is sprinting to record levels in many states.  Twelve major cities broke records, surpassing grim milestones in just the first 11 months of 2021. Chicago led the nation with 739 homicides, followed by Philadelphia (521) New York (443) and Los Angeles (352). FBI data for 2021 is not available. 

Real wage growth for workers is down by 1.0% since February 2020 when inflation is taken into account.  The president likes to brag that workers hourly pay has increased 4.8%.  However, inflation zoomed to 7% in December, the highest rate of price increases in nearly 40 years.

Americans have seldom faced such dire circumstances. It is unnerving, especially for younger generations. Americans are less optimistic about this year than their counterparts in other developed countries; a trend documented in polls.     

In a recent Ipsos Tracking Poll, Americans want Mr. Biden to focus on the economy, the pandemic, jobs, immigration, crime and unifying the nation, in that order.  Yet Mr. Biden is currently championing voter rights and a multi-trillion dollar entitlement expansion, issues that aren't on Americans' radar.  

His plummeting poll numbers reinforce the fact the president has failed to connect with working Americans.  He has chosen the path of deferring to the elitists--big donors, wealthy climate activists, the progressive base, unions and racial demagogues--instead of the average Joes he claims to identify with.

Democrat strategists insist the problem is Mr. Biden's achievements have not been recognized in the face of unprecedented challenges. But that's a smokescreen.  The issue is Mr. Biden's priorities do not align with what most Americans care about: the economy, inflation, jobs, crime, immigration.

Little wonder Americans trust in government plunged to its lowest levels in 2021.  A National Election Study found only about one-quarter (24%) of Americans say they can trust the government in Washington will do what is right either always or most of the time.  

Political allies are urging Mr. Biden to change his messaging and leave the White House to talk directly with Americans. That may be the worst advice ever delivered to a president by his own party. Unless Mr. Biden jettisons his current policies, chaos and destructive division will become the new normal.  

A Boomer Manifesto: Stop Hating Us!

An Open Letter To Millennials:

Pay attention whiny Millennials.  I'm talking to you 23-to-38-year-olds. Stop scapegoating Boomers.  Boomers left a better world than we inherited.  Yet you complain about your circumstances.  Life is never easy for any generation. Just accept it and get over yourselves. Be happy for goodness sakes.

Many of you moan that Boomers bequeathed you a rotten world.  The climate is a furnace.  Oceans are dirty and choking in plastic. College loans are a financial yoke.  Homes are unaffordable. Child care costs too much. Boomers snatched all the wealth.  The economy is unfair. Life generally sucks.  

Millennials grumble they are tethered to their work.  They're on call 24-hours-a-day, seven-days-a-week. Many haven't stepped inside an office in more than a year, but carp about their jobs.  Millennials lament no generation has faced such unrelenting job tension.  There is no escaping work.         

Their rants on social media are epic meltdowns.  "What's it like to be an fossil?" Millennials rage when Boomers challenge their cranky attitude .  If confronted with history and facts, they are dismissive: "Okay, Boomer!" Blaming other people for your plight will be the epithet for your generation.  

Millennials voices are suddenly trendy because they have surpassed Boomers as the nation 's largest adult generation.  Boomers, those born from 1946 to 1964, clung to that distinction for decades until the latest Census data confirmed Millennials outnumber the former by a margin of 72-to-70 million people.

The name Boomer originated from the term Baby Boom, the phenomenon of a sharp rise in birth rates after World War II. Beginning in 1946, there were a record 3.4 million births, the highest ever recorded in a single year.  That was the beginning a population explosion that lasted through 1964.

Counting yourself as Baby Boomer was once a badge of distinction. No longer.  Millennials and their cousins in younger generations feel entitled to free child care, free health care and free college because Boomers have it too good.  Oh, and Boomers should pay for the free stuff.   

Let's acknowledge that stereotyping any group, especially an entire generation, is unfair.  There are many hard-working, very intelligent, deeply motivated, joyously satisfied Millennials.  However, their voices are drowned out by the bellyachers.  Those are the ones that need a history lesson.

Boomers were endowed with paucity.  Most parents didn't graduate college.  They were not hedge fund managers.  We lived in modest neighborhoods. Vacations were a luxury.  Boomers were not gifted a car the day we received our driver's license. Few grew up in affluence.  We were grateful for what we had. 

In elementary school, teachers drilled us on how to survive a Soviet Union nuclear attack by hiding under our desks. Kids had nightmares about the bomb.  Boomers remember the day the world trembled when a Russian fleet headed toward Cuba. A bloody military confrontation appeared imminent.  

We dealt with the fear of polio, a crippling disease that struck children. We wept the day a U.S. president was shot and killed.  The news about the assassination broadcast over school public address systems stunned us.  How could anyone murder a president of the strongest nation on Earth?   

Those events shook us to the core.  Our world felt unsafe. There were no counselors to help us deal with the trauma. Our parents example of grit and determination in the direst times gave us strength. Taught us how to deal with adversity.  The lessons proved invaluable once we were on our own.

Boomers earned the title of the most educated generation, many becoming the first in their family to be awarded a college degree. College was certainly not as expensive as today, but household incomes were far less too.  Many Boomers worked in the summer and during college to pay the costs.  

During that time the Vietnam War was raging in Asia.  Thousands of students were drafted and sent to the jungles in Vietnam.  Boomers served with distinction but were unwelcome when they returned home.  Anti-war protests, led by Boomers, roiled campuses and changed public opinion against wars.

After college, jobs were not as plentiful as post-World War II.  Job competition was fierce. Those who had jobs worked long hours. There were times we slept at the office and toiled on weekends. While iPhones were not welded to our hands, bosses used landline phones to keep us connected to the office. 

Boomers didn't break America, we tired to fix it.  We embraced civil rights long before Black Lives Matter.  Boomers were on the front lines of marches for equality.  Dr. Martin Luther King found disciples among white Boomers.  Boomers were the first generation to attend desegregated  schools.

Boomers kickstarted environmental activism.  We were the first generation to spearhead cleaning up  polluted lakes and rivers.  We joined organizations dedicated to the environment. Boomers were the force behind recycling. No past generation had been willing to tackle environmental issues.

Boomers, often branded the "me" generation, answered the call to join a new outreach program called the Peace Corps.  Thousands volunteered to work in the U.S. and overseas to help others in need. Over the years, Boomers embraced volunteerism as part of every American's civic duty.

Boomers give the world the Internet, which linked the entire planet. They invented an ingenious device called the computer. Boomers also created wireless communications, including the iPhone. They designed computer software.  These discoveries ushered in a new digital era that thrives today.

We huddled around television sets to watch the U.S. land on the moon in 1969, spurring a generation's interest in space, science, math and technology.  This unimaginable feat left an indelible impression on Boomers, imbuing a whole generation with exuberant optimism and self confidence.    

With every passing year, Boomers are now mocked for driving up the costs of Social Security and Medicare; benefits we paid for in taxes. Instead, Millennials should thank us. Boomers started the fitness craze which evolved into a healthier lifestyle, resulting in extended longevity.  

Don't hate Boomers because we are hard-working, industrious, competitive and have pursued the American dream. Yes, Millennials, there are obstacles to the life you seek.  They may seem insurmountable. Economic circumstances, work demands and life choices are arduous.  

But Boomers want you to succeed.  You are the future of this country. We are sympathetic with your trials and tribulations.  But you can learn from our experience. Embrace the current challenges and rise above them.  Create your own future. Pity parties are not productive. 

One day Millennials will be judged by younger generations too.  What will they say about you?  You can start today by turning down the volume on the litany of complaints and forge ahead with renewed determination to become the greatest generation ever.   

Fentanyl: America's Other Epidemic

Fentanyl is a silent stalker of vulnerable Americans.  Almost overnight, it has become the top killer of adults aged 18 to 45.  Unlike America's other epidemic, there are no daily fatality counts in the news.  Fentanyl death statistics usually emerge once a year, then disappear from the nation's consciousness.

America can no longer ignore the issue. Drug overdose fatalities represent a mushrooming health emergency that has taken a backseat to COVID, despite alarming trends.  A perfect storm of pandemic lockdowns, a porous southern border and increased drug smuggling is fueling the maelstrom.     

A record 100,306 Americans died of drug overdoses in the 12-month period ending April 2021, reports the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). This represents a 28.5% spike in deaths compared to a year ago.  Since 1999, more than 841,000 Americans have perished of drug overdoses.

From 2019 to 2020, the rate of overdose deaths involving fentanyl and similar opioids leaped 56%.  Americans aged 15-to-24 experienced the largest percentage increase in overdose fatalities, 49%.  This age group had the second lowest rates in 2019, underscoring the rising drug use among young people. 

Fentanyl, a powerful synthetic opioid, has overtaken prescription painkillers and heroin as the leading cause of overdose fatalities.  It is responsible for about two-thirds of the overdose deaths,  according to an analysis of CDC data by the nonprofit organization Families Against Fentanyl.

Fentanyl is about 50 to 100 times more potent than morphine.  It is highly addictive and lethal.  A single fentanyl pill can be fatal.  Often Americans are unaware they are consuming fentanyl.  Drug cartels lace fake prescription pills with fentanyl, including Xanax, Valium, Oxytocin and opioids.

The prescription pills are manufactured in Mexico by drug cartels, using chemicals supplied by China.  Fentanyl is mixed with other narcotics to increase its potency and then infused into counterfeit prescription pills. The drugs are trafficked across the southern border by cartel-paid smugglers.

The flood of illegal immigrants is a boon to traffickers.  A reported 1.7 million "encounters " with illegal immigrants were tallied in fiscal year 2021, quadruple the figure for the prior year. The  Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR) estimates about 400,000 so-called getaways eluded detection.

The statistics from the Customs and Border Protection agency for the fiscal year 2021 paint a clear but disturbing picture of  drugs flowing across the border.  During the latest reporting period, the agency confiscated 11,200 pounds of fentanyl, a jump from 2,150 pounds in fiscal 2020.

In addition, the Drug Enforcement Administration (IDEA) seized a record of more than 20 million counterfeit pills containing fentanyl in 2021.  Nearly half were confiscated in Phoenix, the repackaging and distribution area for the notorious Mexican Sinaloa Cartel, which has infiltrated the U.S..  

The drug pushers take advantage of America's social media to market the phony prescription pills.  The DEA estimates about 75% of drug traffickers use Snapchat, Facebook, Instagram, TikTok and YouTube. The agency says the thugs employ emoji's as a code for the types of prescriptions.

Cheri Oz, special agent in charge of the DEA's Phoenix field division, issued this warning at a news conference: "Traffickers are using technology to get into your homes and sell pills to your children and loved ones.  Watch their social media and educate yourselves on the dangers and lingo" of emoji's.

Isn't it ironic, perhaps insidious, the social media cabal regularly censors speech on its platforms, but knowingly allows criminals to advertise its fentanyl-laced pills?  The firms cannot claim ignorance because the DEA publishes on its website details of the criminals social media strategy.  

Excessive lockdowns imposed during the pandemic are equally to blame for the spiraling overdose cases.  In focusing on legitimate concerns about hospitalizations and deaths, health officials failed to balance their decisions with the risks of mental health and drug problems triggered by isolation.

"Two forces here are the negative economic impact of the pandemic as well as the emotional impact," says Dr. Paul Christo, associate professor of anesthesiology and critical care at Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. "That led a lot of people to use drugs to cope."

For its part, the Biden Administration plan to address the issue includes prescription testing, support programs, clean needles and $11 billion in spending.  None of these steps will alter the overdose trends.  No administration official has dared call for tightening the border to stem drug trafficking.

The Department of Justice seems uninterested in prosecuting drug smugglers, but pursues parents who appear at school board meetings. The border patrol has been whipsawed by administration criticism, instead of receiving more resources to halt the stream of drugs gushing across the southern border. 

To slow distribution, Congress should immediately pass legislation making it a federal crime for social media platforms to knowingly aid the sale of illegal drugs. Facebook and its ilk will fight it, piously claiming there is no way to police it.  That's a lie and should be condemned.

Any reasonable assessment of the drug issue would conclude the skyrocketing overdose deaths are the result of self-inflicted wounds by state and federal governments. America is straining under the weight of bad policy decisions. Yet there appears little sense of urgency to change direction.