Every year this scribe's annual predictions generate copious sneers, ridicule and the occasional thumbs up. Now the legion of doubters and the trifling believers have an opportunity to test their prognostication mettle. You can now wager on almost any verifiable future event, including many of this year's forecasts.
For the uninitiated, an outfit called Polymarket operates the world's largest prediction market. Using a blockchain-based platform, Polymarket allows bettering on future events. For instance, you can place a wager on this future event: "Will a ceasefire be called in Ukraine in 2026?" Just select "Yes" or "No."
Don't worry about the affordability crisis. Transactions on Polymarket are conducted using USDC stablecoin, cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar. It's not like it's real money! You can bet on just about everything from politics and sports to pop culture and finance.
Before you dash to the Polymarket website, let's raise the curtain on the safest predictions for 2026:
1. Power and water supply concerns coupled with local politics trip up massive data center expansion plans. The blistering pace of construction for hubs that power AI hit a snag, delaying the costly deployment plans of chip makers and cloud-computing firms. The development negatively impacts AI stocks, but the Magnificent Seven still finish 2026 on an upswing.
2. Congress gets in the act of trying to rein in AI's ability to perform jobs with legislation to protect entry level positions. AI is already replacing data entry positions, software engineers, computer programmers, paralegals, research analysts and content writers. In an election year, Congress can't resist grandstanding to protect jobs, authoring several bills that disapear into the legislative ether after the midterms.
3. The stock market defies gravity and continues its upward march to record levels. Strong corporate earnings, monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve and the deployment of AI spur the S&P to a record close of 7,800. Risks include the danger of an AI bubble burst, sticky inflation and midterm election volatility. But investors keep plowing money into the market.
4. Forecasters continue to underestimate economic growth as the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) exceeds expectations despite tepid job growth. The GDP, a broad gauge of economic activity, finishes the year with an annualized growth rate of 2.8%. Consumer spending roars ahead as record IRS tax refunds boost household income. Unemployment ends the year at 4.4% and the Federal Reserve's measurement of core inflation hits a low of 2.3%. Wage growth advances modestly, built on 19 states increasing minimum wage January 1 and a 3.6% hike in salaries in the new year.
5. Home sales experience a modest increase as prices remain flat or fall in some areas. Nationally, home prices will uptick 1.7% as existing sales remain lukewarm in many areas. Total home sales will climb 3.3% nationally, topping 4 million homes. Lower mortgage rates--averaging 6.1% on a 30-year loan--will drive sales. However, 73% of homeowners have mortgages below 5%, convincing the majority of Americans to remain cacooned in their current residences.
6. When Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, the change in leadership supercharges the Fed's determination to lower interest rates. President Trump names Kevin Hassett, the current chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors, to succeed Powell, who remains on the Board of Governors until January, 2028. With a new chairman, the Fed lowers interest rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year.
7. The vast majority of the 435 House seats in the mid-term elections are not likely to change parties. Political analysts currently rank 69 seats as up for grabs, but it is more likely that 30 races for the House will determine which party controls the lower chamber. The party out of control normally picks up seats in the first term of a new president: Democrats win control of the House: 226-209. Democrats run more white women candidates to tap into a voting bloc that has turned decidedly true blue.
8. A total of 35 Senate seats will be contested in the midterms with Republicans maintaining a majority. Democrats (13) have more vulnerable seats to defend, such as those in Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina, despite more Republicans (22) facing reelection. The red states favor Republicans but the Democrats still narrow the GOP majority to a razor-thin 51-47 with two Independents caucusing with Dems. Campaign spending for the Senate and House break all records.
9. Despite Trump's efforts to broker a peace, the war rages on between Russia and Ukraine in 2026. Russia's Valdimir Putin keeps changing the goal posts for negotiations to end the war with Ukraine as his forces make progress inch-by-bloody-inch. The autocrat has made the calculation that both Europe and the U.S. will eventually lose their resolve to prop up Ukraine militarily, emboldening Russia to take more territory.
10. A New York federal judge issues a ruling compelling the Trump Administration to release Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro. A federal judge rules that Maduro has sovereign immunity as the duly elected leader of Venezuela, a fact the Trump Administration disputes. However, that will not stop the court from ordering Maduro's release. Appeals reach the Supreme Court.
11. The Supreme Court rules against the Trump Administration in the tariffs case. In a 5-4 decision SCOTUS rules that the circumstances under which the president raised tariffs did not meet the 1977 International Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) definition of an "emergency." The decision also hangs on the definition of whether tariffs constitute a tax, which must be approved by Congress. After the ruling, the House and Senate vote to allow the current tariffs to stand.
12. With affordability top of mind for voters, cities, counties and states adopt so-called pilot (temporary) programs for guaranteed income. More than 100 cities have embraced pilot programs guaranteeing income for residents who meet certain conditions. Cook County (Chicago) became the most recent to adopt a basic income program. The movement spreads like a California wildfire to become a national issue in the mid-term elections.
Don't believe the predictions? Wondering if your writer's crystal ball is broken? Feel free to place your bets on Polymarket. You can use your winnings to purchase a little minced crow meat to feed to your journalist in 2027.
