Monday, August 15, 2022

Green Energy Runs Into Coal, Hard Facts

Washington is expected to spend $1 trillion to underwrite green energy production this year in an effort to reach the administration's goal of net zero emissions by 2050.  Even if the U.S. achieves its target, it might not reduce global emissions because coal plants are springing up like mushrooms everywhere.  

Although China is a signatory to the Paris Climate Agreement, its actions do not match its state-sanctioned support for the green agenda. China built more than three times as much coal plant capacity as the rest of the world in 2020.  This translates into more than one coal plant every week.  

A report by San Francisco-based think tank Global Energy Monitor and the Centre of Research on Energy and Clean Air documents China's thirst for coal power.  Research shows China grew its coal power by 29.8 Gigawatts (GW) while the rest of the world decreased capacity by 17.2 GW.

In 2021, China added more coal plants since 2016 as its power demands increased.  The world's most populous country has 1,100 coal fired power plants producing electricity.  That is nearly four times as many as the second-largest coal energy producer, India, which has 285 plants.  

Climate activists claim that because of the Paris agreement China has reduced its dependence on coal.  The country produces less of its total energy from coal than it did 10 years ago, dropping from 85% to 56%. But coal remains the chief energy source to power China. 

China not only is the biggest consumer of coal power, but the largest producer too.   China produced 4.7% more coal in 2021 than the previous year.  Coal companies churned out more than 3.7 billion tons.  The country's coal industry plans to significantly hike production this year, reports Chinese media.

Despite its efforts to reduce its dependence on coal, the Chinese are involved in building and funding more than 70% of all coal plants abroad.  Since 2013, China's Belt and Road Initiative has committed to $50 billion in financing for 26.8 Gigawatts of coal facilities in 152 countries. 

Chineses Banks are bankrolling 60 new coal plants across Eurasia, South America and Africa.  When those projects are completed, the coal facilities would emit about as much carbon dioxide as all of Spain. Ignore Chinese propaganda; the country is exporting pollution to other nations.

Carbon Tracker, a financial think tank, calculated that China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam plan to build 600 coal power plants. India with 285 coal plants generates more than 75% of its power needs through thermal coal. India has 39 thermal coal plants under construction with plans for more. 

No surprise to learn China is the world's biggest polluter.  The Communist nation contributed 21.4% of the world's greenhouse gasses, according to data from the World Resources Institute.  The U.S. ranks second with 12.5% of the global emissions.  India and the European Union are tied at 7% each.   

Weaning countries off coal is proving difficult because the demand for energy is soaring.  Electricity demand is projected to triple globally by 2050, a McKinsey report estimates.   Estimates are the electricity demand in the U.S. will jump 28.8% for the same period. 

With rising demand, America's push for green energy has paid dividends.  Wind turbines and solar accounted for about 20% of the electricity generated in 2021.  Including hydroelectric dams and nuclear, the total rises to nearly 40%.  But coal still produces 21% of electric power. 

Germany is a cautionary tale for adopting a green policy cold turkey without regard for the long-term impact on the economy.  Since 2000, the country shutdown coal plants, scuttled nuclear facilities and spent billions of dollars on renewable power, mostly wind and solar. 

However, those renewables are subject to intermittent output, meaning the country needs a dependable, alternative power source. For Germany, that has been Russian natural gas.  When Russia began cutting back supplies this year, Germany had no other option but to restart its coal fired plants.

Germany had planned to eliminate coal by 2030, but that target seems unachievable in light of the reactivation of coal plants.  The lesson of the German experience is that the shift to renewable energy cannot happen overnight and without fossil fuel backup power, electricity rationing is a certainty. 

With winter months away, officials in the country's second largest city Hamburg are warning warm water will only be available certain times of day. Across Germany, streets light are dimmed, water is rationed and swimming pools have been closed.  

Most Americans are on board with replacing fossil fuel electricity with green energy.  On the other hand, Americans want affordable, reliable energy.  This summer major electric grids across the nation are under stress sometimes because wind and solar are offline due to weather conditions.

America's appetite for wind and solar energy is growing, which is driving down the cost of each megawatt-hour of energy, making it more competitive with fossil fuels. But for the foreseeable future, fossil fuels will be required to meet the nation's rising energy demand.

Monday, August 1, 2022

GOP Overconfidence Spells Trouble in Midterms

Giddy Republicans are popping the champagne corks in celebration of a Red Wave in the midterm elections.  That over exuberance may prove their undoing in November.  While the GOP is in party mode, Democrats are building a war chest and sharpening their political rhetoric to pull an upset.

For months, President Biden's underwater poll numbers fed GOP confidence.  Scorching inflation, record gas prices, a porous border, and education issues foreshadowed a Red avalanche.  Early national polls showed voters preferred GOP control of the House and Senate. Happy times are here again. 

Republican also have history on their side.  The president's party usually loses 30 House seats in the midterms.  Democrats currently hold a thin majority in the House, 220-211.  If history repeats, the GOP would begin 2023 with a solid 241-180 majority.  But history can be fickle.  

Currently, the Senate is deadlocked 50-50, although Vice President Kamala Harris casts the deciding vote in the event of ties. There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs this year.  However, Senate control will likely hinge on closely contested races in 10 key states, where turnout will tilt the outcome. 

The latest Monmouth University Policy Institute poll offers a clear picture of voters issues. Inflation and gas prices are the chief concerns.  More than four in ten Americans told pollsters they are struggling financially.  Despite the Democrat drum beating, abortion is a priority for just 5% of voters. 

Beware: Some polls show abortion as a priority issue but those are not open-ended, where respondents select their own priorities. Democrat-sponsored research limits the choices for respondents, forcing survey participants to select from a narrow list of issues, which includes abortion.  

Irregardless,  Democrats insist the emotionally charged issue will motivate its voters to turnout in the midterms.  To up the ante, Democrats are disingenuously claiming the Supreme Court ruling on abortion also imperils gay marriage, racially mixed marriages and LGBTQ protections.

Democrats are also banking on smearing Republicans as extremists in the January 6 hearings.  Although former President Trump is the target, the House committee is crafting a narrative that many GOP House and Senate members were tangentially involved in the Capitol riots. Thus Republicans are fanatics.

As an extension of this strategy, Democrat fund raising committees are supporting Trump-endorsed GOP candidates in the primaries in hopes they will be easier to defeat in the midterms. Some Democrats are beginning to notice and are criticizing their party for being hypocritical. 

In light of the Democrat maneuvers, Republicans need to quit reading the polls and stop taking victory laps.  Elections are won in November and voters preferences can flip in a heartbeat. Instead of just regurgitating voter issues, the GOP must begin offering solutions.    

Voters want to know how Republicans will govern and what changes they will make.  This is especially important to woo independents as well as traditional Democrat voting blocs, such as Hispanics, Asians and African-Americans.  Voters are keen on a change of direction in the country.

Republicans need a clarion call that resonates with voters.  How about the American Prosperity Plan? GOP candidates for the House and Senate should rally around an action agenda that stirs voters passion. instead of just reminding voters who bad things are. Here are a few suggestions:

To deal with inflation, the GOP should vow to stop the Democrats inflationary spending.  Republicans should pledge to reject boondoggles with clever names, such as the Inflation Reduction Act. They should adopt a "no new spending" mantra and end government welfare for green industries.

Since the House controls the purse string, the GOP should argue for less spending on federal government agencies, which are expanding. Republicans should insist on across the board 5% budget  cuts at every Washington agency to reduce the federal budget.

Budget cuts would also be a way to reign agencies or in other cases reduce the size of regulatory bureaucracies.  A plan to eliminate the Department of Education, for example, would draw broad support. States have their own Departments of Education.  No need for another layer of bureauracy.

On taxes, Republicans should campaign on lowering tax rates for all Americans making less than $400,000 annually.  Such a promise would offer a stark contrast to the Democrats plans for raising personal and corporate taxes in the midst of an economic recession. 

The border issue reverberates in many key election states, such as Arizona.  Republicans should pledge to pass legislation to finish the border wall.  The suppliers and the construction materials have been paid, but President Biden halted construction.  No additional funding would be required. 

To address energy, Republicans would pledge to revive the GOP-backed Keystone XL bill that died in 2021 in the Democrat controlled House. The bill to authorize completion of the  construction on the oil pipeline, specified the project would not need a permit from the president. 

Health care costs are a factor in rising inflation.  Republicans, who had a chance to end Obamacare in 2016, should cap funding of subsidies for government health insurance, which enrich private insurers.  Another way to reduce health costs is to oppose further expansion of Medicare.

Some Democrats are no doubt shaking their heads in laughter. President Biden would veto any legislation that does not fit the Democrat agenda.  Actually, that would help Republicans draw a clear distinction between the parties on key issues for voters now and in the 2024 presidential election.

Listen Republicans.  Don't waste this opportunity by touting an investigation of President Biden and his son Hunter will be your first act.  That might fire up the base, but average Americans don't care. There will be a time to address the issue at some point.  For now, can the comments.

There will be a time for celebration.  But right now the priority is to unite GOP candidates under a broad agenda to restore American prosperity.  That's what voters want to hear.  

Monday, July 25, 2022

U.S. Economy Slips Into Recession Quicksand

The U.S. economy is sinking into a recession, a persistent, widespread contraction of economic activity.  It will not become official until July 28 after the government releases the data for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  However, the economic storm clouds have been forming this entire year. 

In the face of warning signs, economists, market analysts and the Biden Administration never wavered from rosy economic predictions. Even when the GDP declined 1.6% in the first quarter, they spun the news as a speed bump. The economy was poised for a rebound.    

There will be a rude awakening when the second quarter GDP data drops on Wall Streets this week. The Atlanta Federal Reserve, which tracks GDP weekly, is forecasting a 1.6% decline.  Negative growth in two consultive quarters meets the economic criteria for a recession. 

Experts assured Americans that inflation was only temporary.  The economy was just shaking off the cobwebs after the pandemic lockdown.  Recession was a distant chance. How did everyone from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to Wall Street get it so wrong?   

The answer: They viewed the current economic conditions through the lens of past economic recoveries. 

There has never been a volcanic disruption as what occurred in 2020 with the exception of the Great Depression.  The U.S. sustained massive job losses, extensive business closures, broken supply chains and the shutdown of manufacturing. This was unlike any past economic jolt.  

For months, the recession-deniers have pointed to strong job growth as a sign the economy is rebounding from the first quarter GDP doldrums.  In the past, job growth indicated a growing economy.  But the job figures are not a reliable predictor in the wake of the pandemic that shutdown the economy. 

The American economy lost 22 million jobs from February to April, 2020.  By the end of that year, there were still more than 11 million unemployed Americans.  In 2021, the economy added 6.7 million jobs. This year the job gains stand at 2.74 million.  That's 9.4 million jobs in one-and-a-half years. 

For the most part, these gains reflect people returning to their former jobs after being laid off. Most are not new jobs created by innovation or business investment, which would indicate growth. Federal Reserve data shows the number of workers today are 500,000 below the level in February, 2020.

In the midst of reported job gains, 11 million job openings remain unfilled, despite six million unemployed workers.  During the economic boom of 2019, job openings averaged 7 million.  America's labor supply has been depleted because fewer workers are in the job market.

The labor pool shortage may be partially attributed to the 2.4 million workers who retired early in the first 18-months of the pandemic. Total retirements from March 2020 to July 2021 reached 4.2 million. Anecdotal evidence suggests some retirees are re-entering the workforce due to inflation. 

A phenomenon know as the "Great Resignation" is also roiling the job market.  The BLS reports 47 million workers voluntarily quit their jobs in 2021.  The trend is likely to continue.  A McKinsey study finds 40% of workers and the self-employed expect to leave their jobs in the next three to six months.

Many take time off to re-evaluate their career options and personal priorities. If they return to a job, it usually is for better pay, more opportunities for advancement, improved work-life balance and job flexibility.  This constant churn in-and-out of the workforce helps explain the 11 million job openings. 

Confronted with this evidence, experts cite the low unemployment of 3.6% as as sign a recession is unlikely. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data does not count so-called discouraged workers or those "marginally" attached to the workforce who haven't sought a job in a month. 

Buried in the BLS statistical tables is a figure known as the U-6 data. The St. Louis Federal Reserve watches this number more closely than the headline figure generated by the government.  The metric measures real unemployment at 7.0%, by including discouraged and marginally attached workers.

Another measurement of economic activity is total retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending.  Retail sales ticked up 1% in May, but adjusted for 1.3% price inflation for the month, sales actually declined.  

Consumer spending is the best barometer of the economy, because it accounts for about 70% of the GDP.   Looking back, the feverish spending of late 2021 and earlier this year was predictable. 

The average American had saved 33% of household income during 2020, building a financial cushion. Coupled with stimulus payments, consumers were flush with cash. After paying off $82 billion in credit card debt in 2020, credit availability shored up consumer confidence to keep shelling out money. 

However, as inflation heated up, soaring to 9.1% recently, spending began tapering off over time.  Stimulus payments dried up.  Enhanced unemployment benefits ended. Americans began dipping into savings to sustain spending.  Today households  are saving just 4.4% of income.   

The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows credit card debt jumped 20% in April (the latest figure available) to a near record of $1.103 trillion.   The Fed reports revolving debt and credit card balances combined skyrocketed 19.6% from the previous year in April. 

In another harbinger of a slowdown, June saw a 20-year low for home mortgage applications as average home prices hit a record.  A spike in interest rates, orchestrated by the Fed, discouraged many first-time homebuyers from purchasing a home.  Homebuilders are are preparing for a downturn. 

Perhaps, the clearest clue of economic trouble is Americans are cutting back on driving.  Motorists purchased almost 10% less fuel in the week ended July 9 and an estimated 7.8% less in the week ended July 16.  Gas prices are falling because inflated prices are curbing demand.  

With the spending binge ending, consumers are in a gloomy mood. Consumer Sentiment data tracked monthly by the University of Michigan reveals confidence has fallen to 51.1% from 81.2% just a year ago. When people feel less confident, it influences their spending and saving habits. 

Businesses are grappling with uncertainty too.  Microsoft, Tesla, Netflix, Google and J.P. Morgan head a list of business firms either laying off workers or reducing hiring. In May, the latest figure available, 1.4 million workers were laid off and discharged.  Jobless claims in June were the highest since January. 

Once the government data confirms what consumers already know, don't expect an about face from the experts or an admission of failure to forecast the recession.  The usual suspects, Wall Street and the administration, will begin preaching a recovery is just a quarter away.

No doubt, at some point, the economy will begin to right itself.  But the lingering question is: "How long will that take?" Be forewarned that no one really knows that answer, however, you can bet there will be plenty of forecasters touting a turnaround soon.   

Monday, July 18, 2022

Unfriendly Skies For Airline Travelers

Airlines are flying into headwinds, stirring thunderous passenger turbulence. Thousands of flights are cancelled, leaving travelers stranded for days at a time.  Flight schedules are routinely scrambled. Airlines are scrapping routes. Flight delays are a daily occurrence. Turmoil shakes the skies. 

The downdraft in airline performance is documented by Department of Transportation data. Year-to-date, 430,444 U.S. flights have been delayed, a 250% increase from 2021.  A staggering 76,776 flights have been scrubbed, a 253% rise.  On-time performance is its lowest level since 2014.

Snarled flights are a nightmare for Americans ready to resume vacations after two years of pandemic bondage.  Hikes in travel bookings should be good news for airlines which weathered two years of crippling losses totaling nearly $200 billion.  Instead  it has created wind shears for airlines.

In the midst of this bumpy ride, passengers are paying more for worst service.   In the last year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for airline tickets rose 25%, the largest jump since the Federal Reserve of St. Louis began tracking in 1989.  High prices and uneven service are unnerving passengers. 

The main issue for U.S. and global airlines is a shortage of pilots.  U.S. airlines are scrambling to hire 13,000 pilots this year, more than double the previous annual record.  For perspective, the industry hires about 5,000 to 7,000 annually, according to United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. 

The pandemic exacerbated the shortage by scuttling new pilot training and hiring, while triggering a wave of early retirements. Despite a $100 billion government bailout, which included $54 billion for benefits and wages, the big commercial carriers offered pilots early retirements to cut labor costs.  

After a wave of offers, American Airlines lost 5,400 pilots; Delta 2,000; and United 450, plus 1,750 were furloughed. Airlines are now poaching each others pilots, with higher salaries and benefits. To stem losses, pay for senior pilots at United Airlines now top $450,000 annually.

Easing the shortage will be practically mission impossible.  About 5,5773 pilots a year are hitting the mandatory retirement age of 65 each year.  The number reflects the aging of the pilot labor pool. Seniority pay and benefits encourage pilots to work until retirement. 

Normally, the big carriers fill jobs by recruiting pilots from the cockpits of regional airlines. However, the number of regional pilots has dwindled from its peak of 19,000 to about 14,000, draining the talent pool of pilots for the large carriers.    

To retain pilots, American recently extended 50% pay premiums for regional pilots through August, 2024.  The military, a source for trained pilots, is struggling to find aviators. The Air Force reported a shortage of 1,650 aviators at the end of 2021. 

The Federal Aviation Administration, which certifies new pilots, handed out an average of 6,500 certificates annually in the past decade.  When the virus disrupted training programs, there were fewer certificates issued in 2020 and 2021.  Regional airlines are career entry points for newly minted pilots.  

The prognosis for solving the pilot shortage is cloudy. There is industry momentum for raising the retirement age to 67, a bandaid solution. Regional carriers are petitioning the Federal Aviation Administration to reduce the standards for flight hours by 50% for new pilots.

Both proposals raise safety issues which regulators have so far frowned upon. It means the pilot shortage will continue at least through 2029, according to industry executives. The problem won't be helped by the fact the U.S. carriers will lose about half of its pilots to retirement in the next 15 years.

Although it's hardly comforting, the U.S. isn't the only nation dealing with a dearth of pilots. Europe has not only faced pilot issues, but labor strikes and understaffing at airports. London's busy Heathrow Airport asked airlines to curtail schedules as mountains of baggage could not be handled.

Unless airlines can reach smoother air,  travelers may soon decide it is not worth the hassle to fly.  That would be a downburst to an industry recovering after two years of financial disaster.  The carriers must act with urgency and innovation to recruit and train the next generation of aviators.   

Monday, July 11, 2022

America Being Undermined By Marxist Ideology

America is under siege with rampant lawlessness.  Murders in Atlanta have spiked 43%.  Rapes have soared 236.6%. Los Angeles gun violence has jumped 40% since 2020.  Downtown shootings in Chicago have increased 64%.  New York City's crime index is up 27.8%.  

Lost in the data, is the cruel fact that 181 children aged one month to 11 years old have been murdered. Two year olds are gunned down while their mothers watch in horror.  A total of 681 teenagers have died in gun violence this year.  A least 36 policemen have been killed trying to protect citizens.

George Soros-backed district attorneys responsible for prosecuting violent offenders are instead releasing the thugs into society. Criminals with long rap sheets are set free, only to be arrested again. What kind of a society allows this to happen?  Sounds like Venezuela or Tijuana, Mexico.

Much of the blame for the upsurge belongs at the feet of politicians in big cities who refuse to back police.  During the riots of 2020, mayors stood by as buildings were torched, stores were looted, police were injured and bystanders beaten.  The current vice president offered to pay bail for the rioters.  

In the bloody aftermath, defunding the police became a battlecry for politicians who wanted to cozy up to Black Lives Matter, Antifa and other violent groups.  Police budgets were slashed.  Politicians issued new restrictions on policing,  leaving citizens and businesses at the mercy of criminals.

This lawlessness extends to the Southern Border with Mexico. An unprecedented flood of illegal immigrants are brazenly invading the U.S.  In fiscal year 2022, there has been a 78% increase in the number of crossings compared to the same period a year ago.

The crisis will only grow worse as Title 42 is expected to expire soon. The Trump Administration invoked the order to restrict migrants entry into the U.S., including those seeking asylum.  Whenever it is lifted, there will be a Tsunami of crossings.   

Estimates are the end of Title 42 will boost the number of illegal alien crossings to more than 3 million by the end of fiscal year 2022.  That's more than the population of Chicago (2.6 million). Even that projection likely understates the massive tide of illegals because it does not include "getaways."

The Customs and Border Protection agency estimates 220,000 illegal immigrants evaded Border Patrol capture in just a a four-month period from October 2021 to February 2022.  These so-called "getaways" were spotted on cameras and sensors at the border but the agency lacked manpower to capture them.   

Estimates of the total "getaways" range from 400,000 to 800,000, who have stole into America undetected since January, 2021, according to former Border Patrol brass.  Although no one can say for sure, Border Patrol agents suspect many are drug and human smugglers now operating in the U.S.  

This incursion is the handiwork of powerful Mexican drug cartels. While the Biden-controlled media focuses on the bedraggled masses, the news outlets ignore the fact that every single person who enters the U.S. illegally has paid a member of the drug cartel.

Human smuggling is the dirty underbelly the media refuses to expose. Smuggling rings in Central America recruit poor citizens and then exploit them by demanding money for a ticket to the U.S.  The immigrants then pay guards at the Mexican border before they are handed off to cartel traffickers

Drugs, including Chinese-made fentanyl, are being transported by immigrants who do the cartel's dirty work as payment for entry. U.S. fentanyl deaths are setting records.  Law enforcement officials know an undetermined number of drug mules link up with Central American drug gangs in the U.S. 

The smugglers operate with impunity in broad daylight.  Why is America impotent to stop this criminal activity?  Other countries around the globe have found ways to deal with the problem.  But the most powerful country on Earth is powerless to stop these cartel criminals?  That makes no sense.  

Beyond lawlessness, the Biden Administration has overseen cataclysmic economic disruption. Inflation is running at a 40-year high.  Gasoline prices are the highest ever. Fuel costs have rippled through the economy,  driving up prices of food and other goods. Empty grocery shelves are a new reality. 

Biden upset the economic equilibrium in 2021 when he embarked on a new green deal policy offensive. His decisions shackled oil production in the U.S., driving up gas prices 66% before the Ukrainian war. American consumers are bearing the brunt of this disastrous government policy.

A fair examination of today's biggest issues leads to the inevitable conclusion that these disasters, from lawlessness, to overheated inflation, are all self-inflicted by the Biden Administration.  It could still reverse course but there appears to be no sense of turning back for this deeply unpopular president.

Biden campaigned on the promise to fundamentally change America. Few voters realized that would  involve denigrating American values, reordering the economy, shrugging at lawlessness and importing a permanent underclass dependent on Washington for food, housing, healthcare and free education.  

His ideological approach has all the earmarks of Marxism, Communist or Socialism.  Today the media refers to those who support Biden policies as progressives.  That term was coined as a distraction.  What Americans are witnessing is the implementation of a new dogma linked to Marxism.  

To buttress that view, look no further than the government sanctioned indoctrination of American children in the nation's schools. Classrooms are being turned into re-education camps, which preach anti-American themes.  Kids are taught America is a racist, patriarchical country.

Critical race theory and gender identity are high on the list of today's educator tenets Children as young as five are being treated to drag queen shows as part of their learning.  Kids are being sexualized in an effort to replace parental upbringing with a government orthodoxy about families and gender.  

Communists are masters of indoctrination of children to make the state the most important parental figure for kids.  The breakup of families is a goal of Marxism.  Why are America's schools being overtaken by powerful teachers unions with a decidedly pro-socialist viewpoint?  

Next to indoctrination, a key strategy of Communists is a takeover of the distribution of information and news.  The state controls what citizens watch, listen and read.  America is getting closer as censors at social media platforms filter the information to fit an agenda supported by the administration. 

The big media cabal no longer ferrets out truth but falls in lock step with the Biden Administration. Journalism has long since died. Activist reporting is the new rule in newsrooms.  Reporters who don't adhere to doctrine are fired.  The truth may set us free, but the media will imprison our minds. 

The Biden Administration has its own plan to stamp out truth.  A group is being organized behind closed doors in Washington to implement censorship.  The Orwellian squad is called The Disinformation Governance Board.  Why does a democracy need a censorship board?

Biden apologists argue the board, operating under the aegis of the Department of Homeland Security, will target the spread of disinformation by agents of Russia, China and Iran.  Why does the country need a draconian Disinformation Governance Board to do that?  Why can't the FBI arrest these "agents"?  

Once the media outed the board, the Team Biden fired the director and announced a "pause."  Don't be deceived. There is no pause. There is an ongoing effort to spruce up the charter for the board to appear more supportive of free speech.  America does not need a Ministry of Truth. 

Americans routinely ask: Why is all this happening? They are stunned watching their country riddled with chaos and a loss of American values. What may seem like a coincidental confluence of crises is a deliberate breakdown of law and order and a reordering of the economy and education. 

Before democracies loose their freedoms, most undergo frenetic chaos.  That creates a power vacuum for tyrants to grab power. They control speech, control law enforcement, control the justice system, control drug supplies, propagandize the citizenry and control children's minds.   

America is reaching an inflection point.  If Americans do not get involved, then the country will simply drift into Marxism.  There is still time but the clock is ticking and each day brings more destructiveness. Soon the country could devolve into a period of unchartered anarchy.  

We the people are the last defense for the preservation of freedom and American values. Courageous citizens are suing their government, showing up a school board meetings, using their voices to call out Washington's overreach and becoming more politically active. We all must do our part.    

Sunday, June 26, 2022

In Memory of Dean Patrick Roy

Among Dad's keepsakes was an old tattered, faux-leather photo album I inherited after he passed away. Tucked in a corner on the second page is a yellowed, barely one-inch newspaper article with the heartbreaking headline: Infant dies. It reads in part:

"Dean Patrick, infant son of Mr. and Mrs. Fernan Roy, died early Monday morning, 36 hours after birth. Funeral rites and burial were held Monday evening from (sic) the Iota (Louisiana) Catholic Church with Father Olan Broussard in charge. Burial was in the Iota Cemetery..."  

Dean Patrick Roy was born June 29, 1946 at 4:25 p.m. in Jennings (Louisiana) Hospital. I entered the world 15 minutes later.  We were identical twins. Dean tipped the scales at four pounds, four ounces while I was a puny four-pounder. We were born premature.  Our tiny bodies could fit in a shoebox.

Neonatal care of preemies at that era was primitive, especially at a small hospital in a city of less than 9,000.  Neonatal nurseries were in their infancy.  Dad describes the hospital's infant incubator as a small box-like crib with glowing heat lamp to keep his twins warm.  No oxygen hose in the crib. 

Dad paced outside the nursery keeping vigil over his boys.  He aired his concerns about the searing lamp to nurses several times during his visits.  Mom once told me: "Your Dad was insistent that the lamp would set fire to the blankets." His anguish must have gnawed at him every moment. 

Three days after our birth, Mom was sleeping in her hospital bed in Room 16 when a nurse gently touched her shoulder. She awoke with a shudder.  The nurse stood silent a moment before informing Mom one of her twins had died.  "Which one she asked?"  The shaken nurse answered, "Dean."

To understand her question, Dean and I looked so much alike that Mom admitted it was difficult even for her to tell us apart. In her confused mind, she tried to recall the image of Dean.  That just intensified her mental distress. 

I can only imagine the grief and heartache she felt.  Anyone who has lost a child understands the anguish and disbelief.  Rose Derveloy, Mom's mother, was there to comfort her unconsolable daughter.  I am unsure how Dad received the sad news.  But he, too, never forgot that night.

The memory of that evening haunted Mom for the rest of her life. Whenever she awoke during the night, a dread clung to her conscious. Had one of her seven children died?  The angst never subsided over her 96 years. The sudden loss of life of a child would be her nightly cross. 

A day after the tragic news, Mom fretted that Dean had not been baptized before his death.  The Catholic Church in that era erroneously taught unbaptized infants when to a Netherland called Limbo. It was a cruel man-law that nearly a half-century later was assigned to the dustbin of religious heresies.

A nurse, perhaps to comfort Mom, volunteered that she had indeed baptized Dean before he passed.  Although Mom was suspicious it was untrue, she chose to believe the kind nurse had acted out of compassion.  It soothed her to believe her little one received his baptism.    

Sadly, there are no photos of Dean. No footprints. The only testaments to his short life are a birth certificate, newspaper article and a grave in the Iota cemetery.  For many years, Dad and Mom drove to Iota to visit "the baby's grave." Nothing riled Dad more than to discover weeds growing near the grave.  

In Dad's album there is a a picture of Dean's grave in 2017.  The miniature grave had been restored to its alabaster white sheen and the grass was mown.  Dad snapped a picture of the grave and the memorial plaque. He framed the photo and displayed it prominently in their residence in El Campo, Texas.   

Dad and Mom never forgot Dean. Whenever he was asked how many children he had, Dad always replied eight.  Then would add, but one baby died. Once while I was with Dad, someone asked me my age. I replied, "I am 14, the oldest of seven."  Dad politely corrected me: "The oldest of eight."

Dianna and I named our firstborn son Dean in honor of my twin. Although they never voiced their approval, I know Mom and Dad were pleased.  They had a Dean in their lives again.  When they spoke the name, it was always with a touch of reverence for their lost son.   

As the years have rolled by I often wonder in my quiet moments what life would have been like if Dean had lived.  Would we have had the same interests and mannerisms? Would we still look alike?  Would we celebrate our birthdays together? How would my life be different? 

The answers will have to wait.  

As I turn 76 this year, I am entering the twilight of my earthly journey. The inevitable is creeping up on me.  I am unafraid because I can scarcely imagine the unutterable joy of seeing Dean for the first time. Twins reunited. What a glorious celebration it will be.

Sunday, June 19, 2022

How Your Tax Dollars Helped Fuel Inflation

Ask Americans what's fueling inflation and the answers are predictable.  Gas prices. Food costs. Higher wages. Supply chain snarls.  Even Putin.  No one blames Washington's big spenders. They should. In a two year period, Congress shelled out a record $9.95 trillion dollars, contributing to inflation. 

The classic definition of inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods.  Some modern economists prefer to define inflation as a general increase in prices and a fall in the purchasing value of money. That describes what transpired when the economy opened up in late 2020 after Covid lockdowns. 

Once the shackles of pandemic restrictions were lifted, Congress pumped a record $3.13 trillion in economic relief in 2020.  Then Washington's privileged class doubled spending to $6.82 trillion under Biden. The economy was flooded with money at a time when supplies of nearly everything was scarce. 

Economic experts, including Ben Bernanke and Larry Summers, sounded the alarm in early 2021 about the spending gusher.  No one listened.  The priority of every Washington sewer dweller is to get re-elected by showering their district or state with pet projects or sending checks directly to voters.

Mr. Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan in 2021 triggered  an avalanche of dollars cascading into the economy. Checks for $1,400 rolled out to Americans.  Unemployment insurance increased. Child tax cash payments replaced credits. Cities and states were the beneficiaries of billions of dollars. 

Both parties share the shame.  That's why they are looking for scapegoats like Putin. Congress is responsible for approving the annual budget and directing spending. In recent years, Washington has employed budget smokescreens to hoodwink the public while it continues the spending rampage. 

Congress last passed an annual appropriations budget bill in 1996. Since then, Congress has junked the time-honored appropriation process and resorted to a series of massive appropriation bills.  In addition, Washington's aristocracy uses so-called continuing resolutions to fund the government.

This budget chicanery is a deliberate charade to hide the gargantuan amount of taxpayer dollars spent in a single year.  This process led to a $2.2 trillion Cares Act in March 2020. It provided cover for a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill.  And the the mother of all spending, a $2.3 trillion appropriations bill in 2021.

Granted COVID lockdowns created a unique economy quandary: How to jumpstart the feeble economy?  A Tsunami of billions of dollars were dispatched to airlines, small businesses and stimulus payments to Americans.  All that spending, however,  led to a bloated supply of dollars in the economy. 

But Washington's nobility just kept doubling down on spending. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that more than "$1 trillion in pandemic relief and aid approved over the last year remains unspent."  Washington's bureaucracy cannot spend as fast as Congress appropriates money. 

While your tax dollars are idling, they get wasted by your federal government. The GAO, a government watchdog agency, presented its annual report in May identifying $552 billion in government waste and redundancy. Those dollars will never be refunded to the taxpayers who forked over the money.

That is just the tip of a Titanic iceberg. Non-partisan groups estimate that overall fraud in the COVID Paycheck Protection Act (PPA) and the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program reached $84 billion.  The money was stolen by criminals.  It was inevitable given lax reporting requirements.

Congress did that.  In its rush to prime the pump, it sent billions to the Small Business Administration which spent it as if money was candy at Halloween.  The Department of Justice has promised to find and prosecute criminals.  But taxpayers get nothing. Now the administration stumps for higher taxes.

Oh, and at a time when the White House was requesting more COVID relief funds this January, an enterprising report by a budget think-tank uncovered that the $1.9 trillion relief package had $800 billion remaining in unspent funds.  The appropriation had been approved in 2021.   

As your blood pressure spikes, the latest Federal Fumbles compiled by Oklahoma Senator James Lankford contains some doozies. Two billion dollars were frittered away by not finishing the border wall. Contractors were paid the money by the government not to build the wall.  Say what?

The U.S. Grant Presidential library in New Jersey received $500,000 for an art wall.  This is the penultimate of pet project payoffs to New Jersey's senators and Congressional representatives. Another $500,000 was dished out to the Nansen Ski Club in New Hampshire. Nice, huh?

But there's more.  A total of $2.65 million was conveyed to China for their health programs. The fisherman's co-op in Guam snagged a nifty $3 million. The government handed out safe smoking kits at the cost of $30 million. And, golly, $569,000 was doled out for lobster pot removal.

The gigantic levels of government spending over nearly three years injected trillions into the economy. Direct payments to Americans left them with money to spend after they returned to their jobs. To the untrained eye, it appeared to be just the tonic to boost the economy.

However, the mammoth government spending of your tax dollars created the perfect economic storm.  Supplies of goods were tight. Service firms were just getting back on their feet.  Trillions of dollars were sloshing around the economy. Too many dollars were chasing too few goods.

The Federal Reserve made matters worse by artificially holding down the funds rate to near or just above zero.  That encouraged more borrowing, more stock market speculation, more consumer debt. The Fed dawdled  too long, before finally inching up interest rates in the midst of record inflation.

The Fed's so-called accommodation recklessly added to the nation's supply of money at a time when Congress was on a spending frolic.  It was a double-whammy that poured gasoline on the fires of inflation. Yet the "smart" Washington noblesse told us inflation was only "temporary."

Congress and the Fed agreed the engorged spending would help the people who needed it most. But the people suffering the most today are those at the lowest rungs of the economic ladder.  They are making gut wrenching decisions about putting food on their tables and gas in their cars.  

That's why it is so disingenuous to hear Mr. Biden haranguing oil companies about inflationary prices. Biden, the Fed and Congress need to look in the mirror.  Start pointing the finger where the blame belongs.  Washington did this.  They own this crisis. Don't let them dodge accountability.