Organized Theft Buffeting Retail Industry

An epidemic of theft, fraud and robberies are forcing the shuttering of retail stores across many cities.  Walmart is closing stores in Chicago and New York City. Target shut down nine stores in four cities, including Portland and Seattle. Big box chains are abandoning downtown San Francisco.  

A CVS Pharmacy, located in Washington, D.C., has been ransacked so many times by mobs of teenagers that the firm announced it is abandoning the store next month.  A spokesman said groups of as many 45 teenagers regularly clean out the store, leaving rows of empty shelves.  

The crime wave is a burgeoning threat to the $1.3 trillion retail industry, according to a report by the National Retail Federation (NRF). Longstanding risks such as robbery and in-store theft are not the only problems. The industry also has been battered by return fraud, gift card fraud and payment fraud.

Petty theft and shoplifting are overshadowed by the emergence of gangs of organized criminals operating in major cities.  Teams of thieves smash stolen cars into stores and haul away hundreds of goods.  The criminals resell the merchandise on the black market to make a profit.  

NRF research found 70% of retailers reported an increase in organized crime incidents over the last five years.  The data shows 38% of organized crime occurred in-store, while 45% transpires en route from the distribution center to the retailer's store. 

The survey of retailers found that 48% of stores reduced operating hours because of crime. Another 29.7% trimmed product selection and 28.1% reported closing specific store locations.  Scores of Mom and Pop stores have been the hardest hit by criminal activity.

"Retailers are seeing unprecedented levels of theft coupled with rampant crime in their stores, and the situation is only becoming more dire," said NRF, VP David Johnson. "Far beyond the financial impact of these crimes, the violence and concerns for employee and customer safety are our priority."

Leaders from the retail industry testified before a Congressional Committee in December, detailing the scope of the problem.  Increased violence involving theft is causing injury to employees and consumers, the death of some retail associates and a fear of working or shopping in high-crime locations, they said. 

The NRF is lobbying Congress to pass a Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, to crack down on organized retail crime.  The bipartisan legislation, if approved, would create an intra-agency group within Homeland Security to coordinate with other federal law enforcement agencies to rein in crime.

Financial losses are soaring for retailers. Retailers were hit with $112.1 billion in retail theft in 2022, the latest annual data available.   Shoplifting losses grew 19.4% over 2021. Retailers lost an additional $84.9 billion in fraudulent sales returns, which represent a mushrooming concern for the industry. 

In the absence of 2023 numbers, William Blair Investment Banking analyzed NRF data and estimated that retailers absorbed $142 billion in inventory shrinkage and theft losses, a jump of 25% from 2022. Shrinkage is a retail industry term for the difference between inventory and actual physical goods.  

Large organizations of professional shoplifters are taking advantage of soft-on-crime policies in big cities to steal store goods and resell the merchandise openly on the streets, sometimes not far from the scene of the crime. The lucrative nature of the theft is encouraging more individuals to turn to crime. 

In California, home to the largest increase in organized theft, the state passed a law that stipulates stealing merchandise worth $950 or less is a misdemeanor.  It often means that law enforcement likely won't bother to investigate and prosecutors will let offenders off, even if police arrest someone.

Transnational criminal organizations crossing the southern border are contributing to the rising tide of theft in both urban and rural areas, Texas Rep. August Pfluger told a Congressional hearing.  Lenient crime legislation, no cash bail laws, reduced police presence and weak-kneed district attorneys are all to blame for the explosion of retail theft.

Many legacy news outlets and social justice advocates blame retailers, accusing them of manipulating theft data to camouflage a decline in profits.  Since most retailers are regulated by the Securities & Exchange Commission, auditors would have ferreted out these irregularities. 

There are liberals in Congress, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has repeatedly claimed that the spike in retail theft is evidence that desperate families are shoplifting food because of rampant hunger. The data undermines her attempt to raise sympathy for thieves.

Retail industry statistics show that among the most stolen items are athletic clothes, mobile devices, denim, cosmetics, handbags, jackets, sneakers, mechanic tools, beauty aids, alcohol, candy, gum and energy drinks.  Hunger may be a real issue in New York, but these items won't feed a family. 

The real victims are consumers--you and me--who end up paying for the thievery.  Retailers losses are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.  Without a sea change, stores will be forced to hire more armed guards and lock up merchandise to protect inventory, souring the shopping experience.

It's time to quit coddling criminals and declare war on organized theft. Since 2022, nine states have passed laws to impose harsher penalties for organized retail crime.  Inexplicably, states hardest hit, such as California and New York as well as the District of Columbia, continue their ineffective approaches.

Communities need to demand more police presence, stronger prosecutors and tougher laws.  Hard working Americans should not have to pay for the criminal spree sweeping the retail industry.  

Top 12 Predictions For 2024

Stock in prognosticators plunged in 2023.  Almost no one forecast last year would be a boon for the stock market.  Wall Street experts predicted doom and gloom, including the likelihood of an economic recession.  Despite bank failures and accelerated interest rate hikes, bulls trampled market angst. 

Many forecasters might be in hibernation after last year's experience, especially those who suffer from Atelophobia (the fear of being wrong). Against the current backdrop of wars, political chaos and global disorder, it will be challenging for prognosticators to divine a vision in a world of dense fog.    

Your writer has many flaws but doesn't suffer from failure anxiety nor does he shy from predictions.  My confidence is bolstered by picking the S&P would increase 20% in 2023.  The index finished with a gain of 24%.  With 2023 gone and forgotten, here are the Top 12 forecasts for 2024:

1. The economy defied predictions of a recession last year, but the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow a modest 1.9% for 2024.  Consumer spending was the driver for economic growth last year, however, signs point to a retreat.  Consumer debt is at a historic level of $1.3 trillion and credit card rates are near 20% APR.  After a robust 2023 and the usual Christmas splurge, consumer spending will taper off, but will not crater. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP.

2. The stock market rocketed higher in the final months of 2023, driven by the Magnificent Seven: Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Nividia, Tesla and Alphabet while the rest of the stocks were stuck in limbo.  Adoption of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI)  juiced average gains of 100% for the seven as PE ratios reached the stratosphere. This year Wall Street will be looking closer at AI revenues not just shiny forecasts.  Overall, the seven and a few big tech stocks will outperform the overall market, but the growth will be pale in comparison to last year. Presidential elections are usually good for markets, but the three major indices will give back much of last year's supersized gains, finishing with mixed results.  The NASDAQ will eke out a single digit gain.    

3. The Federal Reserve will lower rates twice in 2024, with reductions in the second and fourth quarters, surprising Wall Street and roiling the markets. After teasing three rate reductions, beginning in the first quarter, the Fed turns cautious as stubborn inflation remains above the preferred target of 2% throughout the year.  The nation's fiscal deficit will nudge $1.9  trillion, worrying Fed governors enough to temper major reductions in interest rates. Each rate cut will be a tepid 25 basis points with more promised in 2025. There is one caveat: If the economy weakens in an election year, the Fed may bow to political pressure and vote to cut rates four times. 

4. Major union contracts will help stoke inflationary pressure. Unions won big increases at UPS, the Big Three automakers and Hollywood studios last year but a full-year of costs will hit corporate bottom lines this year, leading to price increases.  There are several big contracts to be negotiated this year, including at AT&T, Boeing, American Airlines flight attendants, postal workers and Anheuser-Busch.  Wage hikes and offsetting price increases are a major risk to inflation.    

5. Momentum in the job market wanes from 2022-2023 levels because the economy has fully absorbed the labor displacement caused by the pandemic. While some industries cannot find enough workers, other sectors are beginning to layoff employees in the face of softer demand and rising expenses. Job growth in December was driven by payroll gains in state and local governments and healthcare. The job quitting surge will gradually return to normal levels. As a result of these issues, unemployment will drift higher throughout the year, reaching 4.1% in the fourth quarter.

6. With housing affordability metrics already at a 40-year low, sales of residential property will flatline. More Americans will choose renting because home values in many markets continue to rise amid tight supply.  About 75% of Americans have mortgage rates locked in at 4% or lower, presenting another headwind for a rebound in the housing sector.  One optimistic scenario: Soft sales may actually lower home prices, triggering a fourth quarter uptick.

7. Geopolitical risks are increasingly creating global economic shudders.  Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East coupled with saber rattling by North Korea are a powder keg waiting to explode. The widening of conflict in the Middle East will disrupt shipping of goods, trigger supply chain bottlenecks and destabilize global oil supply.  An unintended incident may spark an increased military escalation. Meanwhile, Russia will make significant progress in its ongoing war against Ukraine, dashing hopes for a peace agreement.

8 Local TV stations, supported by the National Association of Broadcasters,  will increase lobbying of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to regulate streaming services as the agency does cable companies.  With cord cutting showing no signs of abating, there is an urgency to the effort. Streaming services currently have agreements with the major networks for carriage, but local TV outlets claim the deals are too low to support their operations. Streaming services are fighting back with their own powerhouse lobbying effort, which will quash the regulatory push. 

9.  Investments in data hubs skyrockets as global business demand soars for online content, cloud services and artificial intelligence.    Data centers are already experiencing a once-in-a-generation growth making it financially attractive to add more capacity.  Unless capacity increases, the rapid development of generative AI applications will be adversely effected. The big cloud companies--Amazon, Microsoft and Google--cannot expand fast enough to handle skyrocketing demand. 

10. China resorts to using political upheaval in Taiwan to bring the island nation closer to Beijing's rule, much as it did in Hong Kong.  The Communist regime will continue its hostile military provocations around Taiwan to spook democratic independence. Chairman Xi Jinping has vowed to bring Taiwan under Communist control. With the Chinese economy melting down, the leader needs a distraction to rally his country. There is no better time to act than 2024 with the U.S. military occupied with the Middle East.  

11. Small and regional banks with significant exposure to commercial real estate will be under increasing pressure, fueling a handful of bailouts.  With $550 billion of maturing commercial real estate debt this year, losses are forecast to mount for lenders and investors. Commercial real estate faces other turbulence, including the highest vacancy rate since 1979.  The national vacancy rate hit 19.6% in the fourth quarter.  Since the pandemic, remote work has become so ingrained at many companies which will hollow out office buildings.    

12.  There is at least a fifty-fifty chance that neither President Joe Biden nor former President Donald Trump will be on the general election ballot in November.  Biden's age, historically low poll numbers and his erosion with the Democratic Party base will prompt the donor class to back an alternative.  The most likely scenario: the president will bow out at the Democratic Party National Convention.  Trump and his Mount Everest of legal problems will deal a fatal blow to his candidacy.  The Department of Justice is determined to jail Trump by mid-year and major GOP donors are lining up to support Nikki Haley.  Predicting a winner in November is impossible without knowing the nominees. Republicans take back the Senate but lose the House by a handful of seats.

Persons Of The Year: U.S. Border Patrol Agents

That publication fossil--Time Magazine--selected singer Taylor Swift as its Person of the Year.  The pop diva narrowly beat out stuffy King Charles III and Barbie, a plastic doll.  Apparently, there is a dearth of humans who met the magazine's news-maker criteria. 

How hard can it be to select the person who shook up the world's news? In 1938, the magazine chose Germany's Adolf Hitler.  In view of the conceited editors' shallow standards, it's surprising Time overlooked the Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar, who dominated worldwide news.  

Since Time bungled its selection, the Diatribe is offering a nominee that few appreciate. 

The top news makers arguably are the 16,878 Border Patrol Agents stationed along the 1,954-mile border between Mexico and the United States. These courageous men and women are on the frontlines of an ongoing war with Mexico's human and drug smuggling cartels.

Their bravery and service is ignored by most Americans who consume news from The Washington Post, New York Times, Associated Press, ABC, NBC and CBS News.  Cartels use social media to peddle fentanyl, so these disinformation platforms are blind to the role of border agents. 

The agents are the last line of defense against criminal syndicates that rake in billions of dollars annually by controlling the tide of drugs and migrants flowing from Mexico into the U.S. Their jobs are made harder by a lack of resources, technology, manpower and support from Homeland Security.

This year in particular has been the most challenging in the 20-year history of the U.S. Customers and Border Protection. Agents were swamped by 2.4 illegal immigrants who crossed the southern border from Mexico.  September saw the highest number of crossings, an 86% increase from June of this year.

Encounters, a sanitized word used by the government, increased 4% over 2022, but it represents a 40% hike since fiscal year 2021.  The numbers are staggering: 7.5 million encounters since January, 2021, at the southwest border.  The data does not include 1.7 million getaways.  

Just this year, agents arrested 35,433 immigrants with criminal convictions, 598 known gang members, including 178 were members of the notorious MS-13 gang, risking their lives to catch these law breakers.  Agents also apprehended 169 illegal immigrants on the terror watch list. 

Agents and their partners in Air and Marine Operations seized 27,293 pounds of deadly fentanyl that was smuggled across the southwest border.  That's enough fentanyl to kill more than 6 billion people. A total of 73,654 Americans died of fentanyl overdoses in 2022, according to the most recent data.

Fentanyl wasn't the only dangerous drug exported into the country. Agents seized a total of 241,000 pounds of illicit drugs this fiscal year.  In a drug bust in Temecula, California, Border Patrol agents stopped a gray sedan, driving suspiciously.

When the agents inspected the cedar, they discovered 62 bundles of the blue fentanyl pills concealed inside its door panels and seats. The pills weighed 81.4 pounds with an estimated street value of $3.6 million. Often, seizures follow dangerous high-speed car chases as the drug mules flee from agents.

Agents are in harm's way every day on the job.  In two separate instances, Customs and Border Protection agents were shot at by cartel members on the Mexican side of the border.  In May agents tended to a four-year old child dropped from a border barrier by smugglers.  

As agents rushed to aid the injured boy, cartel members opened fire on the agents.  Fire and rescue first-responders on the scene were forced to take cover.  An Air and Marine Operations helicopter came to the rescue, providing cover for the agents transport the boy to the helicopter.

In another incident, agents patrolling the San Isidro Mountains at nightfall came under heavy fire.  Remote surveillance camera operators captured video of an individual, armed with a rifle.  The shooter was firing from the Mexico side of the border.

One border agent was killed in 2023.  Since January 2021, 43 Customs and Border Protection agents have died in the line of duty, according to Homeland Security.  Likely, this may be the first time you are reading about this tragic death toll.   

The media cabal only covers the border patrol if there is an activist group accusing an agent of abuse. The deaths of agents apparently don't warrant a mention on the national news.  Perhaps, it's because Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas keeps assuring Americans the border is secure.

The unprecedented flood of drugs and immigrants is overwhelming the agents, who protect Americans.   They are the unsung heroes of 2023. The women and men of the Border Patrol deserve to be recognized as the Persons of the Year, despite the lack of news coverage. 

Warehousing America's Elderly

More than 1.4 million Americans reside in nursing homes. A few go voluntarily.  Most are placed in facilities by spouses or family members no longer able to provide around the clock assistance, despite their heroic dedication.  Costs are steep, the quality of care varies and abuse can be a problem.  

There are more than 15,500 Medicare and Medicaid-certified nursing homes nationwide. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates there are 1.7 million beds in licensed nursing homes.  The majority are small facilities with 61 beds are fewer.  About 70% are for-profit operations.

Typically, nursing homes provide assistance with daily living, including preparing meals, bathing, dressing and assisting residents to the toilet, managing medications and feeding residents. Skilled nursing is often available on site.  

Costs are an added stress for families.  A 2021 study by Genworth Financial, the most recent data available, found the average nationwide cost of care in a private room at a nursing home costs $108,405 annually, versus $94,000 for a semi-private room.  Costs vary by state but prices are towering. 

An estimated 80% of aged adults lack the financial resources to pay for two years of nursing care, reports a study by the National Council on Aging. The data shatters the myth that most seniors, especially Baby Boomers, have the financial resources to pay for nursing care.    

Only 12.6% of seniors have long-term care insurance to cover the cost. Medicare pays for the first 20 days at a skilled nursing facility. Many seniors are forced to sell their homes, cash in insurance policies, drain savings and bank accounts.  Often the money runs out while they are in the nursing home.  

A report by the National Center for Health Statistics documented that 83% of nursing home residents are 65 or older.  However, 38% are 85 or older and 26% are between the ages of 75 and 84.  Nearly one-half (49.1%) have Alzheimers or another form of dementia. 

About 818,000 Americans reside in assisted living facilities, which offer less care than nursing homes because patients are usually mobile and able to perform general hygiene.  About 18% of assisted living facilities have a dementia unit and 11% serve only patients with dementia or Alzheimers.  

Research published by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) found patients in long-term care settings are at high risk for abuse and neglect.  Physical abuse may include hitting, slapping, pushing or striking patients with objects, according to the research. Incidents of theft too often occur at a facilities.

Oversight of facilities is spotty at best.  The Centers for Medicare and Medical Services (CMS) is tasked with broad oversight. State regulators, licenses and inspects skilled nursing homes. Significant  violations of standards, may result in a state rescinding a facility's license.

Statistics are a sterile view of the nursing home industry.  Your reporter has seen first-hand the level of care at facilities where family members were housed.  These observations are admittedly unscientific, but most have been collaborated by others with loved ones in nursing homes.

A heartbreaking issue for patients being warehoused: About 7 in 10 receive no visitors. Ever. These poor souls are lonely, frail and virtually shackled to their beds.  They stare vacantly at a small television.  It is an existence in name only.  

It is gut-wrenching to watch patients waiting to be fed, their heads slumped down on tables.  Staff is too busy with other patients, which means some residents wait an hour or more for a meal.  Even those who can feed themselves, are not served in a timely manner in the dining area.  

The meals may include the minimum daily calories and dietary proteins but at the expense of appetizing food. Patient complaints about meals are disregarded as the ramblings of a grumpy old people. If staff were forced to eat the same meals, it would make a difference in quality and variety.

Patient rooms, even the private ones, are spartan and void of color. Wafer thin mattresses on the beds and lumpy pillows are standard. Some patients have televisions, but in many facilities the TVs are provided by the family.  The smell wafting from some rooms testifies to the lack of constant cleaning.

These conditions exist, despite dedicated, trained staff. Facilities are nearly always understaffed.  COVID dealt a devastating blow to nursing homes, killing more than 200,000 residents and staff, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. 

Isolation protocols forced staff to work excessive long hours, which caused burnout, triggering a worker exodus at many facilities.  As of the fourth quarter of 2022, the annual turnover rate at a nursing home was 53%. One-quarter of facilities reported turnover rates greater than 64%. 

Industry experts estimates there is a shortage of 200,000 nurses at long term care facilities. Recruiting firms forecast it may take five years or longer to reach pre-2020 staff levels.  The workforce problem must be addressed to improve care at nursing facilities.

Another issue is economic.  Although Medicaid pays for most patients' care, the government program reimburses facilities only 86% of the costs for a patient.  Nearly half of nursing homes are losing money, according to the American Health Care Association (AHCA).

As a result, the number of nursing homes is dwindling. An estimated 300 closed in 2020 and a combined 400 went out of business from 2021 to 2022.  This year already 135 facilities shuttered their doors.  These statistics were culled from reports by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid.   

Understaffing and economics aren't the only problems. With so many aged adults unable to afford more than two years of nursing care, Medicare and Medicaid are ill equipped to provide the safety net for the elderly. Both programs face financial shortfalls and prospects are dim for a short term fix. 

Nothing short of an overhaul of the nursing home model is required for America to meet the needs of a population living longer.  By 2030 more than 73 million Baby Boomers will be 65 or older. In 2035, the number of Americans 65 and older will outnumber those 18 years old and younger. 

Congress can help, but often Washington's heavy hand leads to regulations that add costs and disincentivize the adoption of technology and innovation. Throwing money at a problem without a coordinated plan leads to wasteful spending, fraud and misapplication of funds. See COVID spending. 

This issue requires an all hands of deck approach.

Solutions must involve the long term care industry, state governments, Medicare, Medicaid, nursing schools and organizations that represent seniors.  The technology industry has a role to play also. One solution to the staffing shortage is to use wearable devices to monitor patients. 

Alarm bells are sounding. Urgent action is required to prevent long term care from erupting into a national crisis. Up to now, the siren call is being ignored, putting in peril millions of elderly Americans.   

Unimaginable Savagery of Hamas Terrorists

Hamas terrorists unleashed a barbaric attack on Israel, murdering 1,300 ordinary civilians, including 30 Americans.  The sheer scale of the horror shocked most of the civilized world. Babies decapitated. Elderly gunned down in their beds. Families burned alive in their houses. Women raped and kidnapped. 

Young concert goers were senselessly slaughtered after killers floated from the skies on paragliders.  Two Holocaust survivors were shot in cold blood. Terrorists on motorcycles sprayed cars with bullets and then kidnapped the occupants.  More than 4,500 Hamas rockets exploded in a quiet residential area.

For perspective, the massacre of 1,300 people in Israel is the equivalent to more than 35,000 civilians casualties in the U.S. That's ten, 9/11 attacks.  After 9/11, Americans united in support of military action against the terrorists. The same national resolve is fueling Israel's strategic preparations for war.   

Unlike past Hamas incursions, this surprise invasion was meticulously planned and executed with military precision. Hamas killers breeched a virtually impenetrable concrete barrier separating Gaza and Israel. Some 1,500 heavily armed Hamas thugs invaded Israel, creating mass panic. That was their goal. 

Terrorists videotaped their heinous butchery and posted the images on social media.  The invaders also sent photos and videotapes to friends and families of victims. These sadistic killers are not "militants" or "soldiers" as portrayed by some media.  They are terrorists.  Period. 

News organizations self-censored the most gruesome images. Palestinian defenders and Hamas jihadists complained Jewish leaders were exaggerating the carnage.  An outraged Benjamin Netanyahu was compelled to release graphic photos and videos online to rebuke the deniers and propagandists.

The attack bears the fingerprints of Iran, although the State Department used parsed language to point out there was no "direct evidence" the Islamic Republic was involved.  Yet U.S. officials readily acknowledge that Iran is complicit in funding Hamas and providing it weapons and training. 

It strains credulity to suggest the Iran's ruling Islamic mullahs did not green light the attack. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard, the Islamic Republic's elite military arm, regularly trains state-sponsored terrorist groups, including Hamas and Hezbollah, according to intelligence sources.

Recent U.S. policy towards Iran has favored rapprochement and diplomacy in an effort to bring stability to the Middle East. The pursuit of peace is always preferable but Iran's malevolent words and its behavior make it clear the regime will never change under the current extremist leaders. 

The United States must course correct and implement every means possible to isolate Iran.  Deny the regime any funding.  Cut off its oil shipments, especially to China, the main buyers of Iran's crude. Launch a maximum campaign to pressure China to stop supporting the Iranian economy. 

Credit the Biden Administration for sending a flotilla of carriers and warships to the Mediterranean to deter a widening war against Israel. Hezbollah, which operates in Lebanon, is stepping up rocket attacks and shelling in the north of Israel.  Lebanon's military has missiles that can reach Tel Aviv. 

One of the first priorities must be the release of potentially 13 Americans held hostage in Gaza. Terrorists have threatened to murder hostages.  President Biden should announce America will hold Hamas responsible and will hunt down and kill any terrorist who harms a U.S. citizen.    

Even in these darkest of times, the ugly face of Antisemitism has been unmasked, both in the U.S. and abroad.  It is a reprehensible,  grim reminder of the Nazi's campaign to demonize Jews, paving the way for public acquiescence to the Holocaust.  Leaders must condemn those who applaud Hamas's attacks. 

Black Lives Matter chapters across America manufactured an image of a Hamas paraglider descending over Israel with the caption: "We stand with Palestine."  Not one corporate funder of BLM condemned the organization.  African-American leaders need to hold BLM accountable.

Four congresswomen criticized accusing the U.S.  of aiding and abetting "apartheid",while condemning Israel's response to Hamas violence.  Not one castigated Hamas for its inhuman brutality. The Hamas apologists are: Cori Bush, Ilhan Omar, Alexandria Ocascio-Cortez and Rashida Tlaib. 

College students at campuses across the country rallied behind Palestine, which amounts to veiled support for Hamas.  A student group at a Wisconsin college chanted, "Glory to the Murderers." Yes, their numbers were small, but college administrations were slow to denounce their actions.

Billionaire CEO Marc Rowan, a graduate of University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business and a mega donor, demanded the college's leaders resign and rallied donors to shut their checkbooks. He was understandably upset after the UPenn president and provost failed to condemn the "hate filled" student protests at a Palestinian event. 

There were also demonstrations in many America cities, including in New York City, supporting Palestine and blaming Israel for the Hamas attacks. Simultaneous protests broke out in Atlanta, Chicao, Denver, San Diego, Washington, D.C. and other cities. 

New York City Mayor Eric Adams made a powerful speech declaring Israel had a right to defend itself after the unprovoked attacks and said "we are not right" with Pro-Palestinian protests celebrating Hamas  in the nation's largest city. He was a lone voice among mayors across the country.  

In Australia, a crowd of 1,000 rallied near the Sydney Opera House, screaming "Gas the Jews."  In London, thousands of pro-palestinian protestors congregated near the Israeli Embassy, chanting "Israel is a Terrorist State." 

There were scores of demonstrations supporting Israel too.  But inevitably counter demonstrators backing Palestine and decrying Israel showed up at some, spoiling for a confrontation.  Heightened police presence is visible in the U.S. and the world as tensions rise.  

The media, often sympathetic to Palestine, is wringing its hands over Israel's bombardment of Gaza. The media fail to inform Americans the majority of Palestinians support Hamas terrorists and its leaders.  Palestinians regard Hamas as freedom fighters trying to take back disputed territory in Israel. 

The United Nations, a body known for its disdain for Israel, is already trying to head off an Israeli military response to attacks on its soil. Hamas is counting on worldwide condemnation of Israel so it can continue to stockpile weapons for an increasing number of bloody attacks.  

Hamas will resort to its playbook of using human shields once the ground war begins. Weapons, munitions and terrorists will relocated to hospitals, schools and residences.  Hamas wants civilian casualties. They have no regard for human life.  Innocents will be sacrificed in the name of jihad. 

The United States cannot bow to outside pressure.  Leaders must allow Israel to punish the perpetrators, just as the U.S. did after 9/11.  There can be no security for Israel until it roots out terrorists, who have traumatized its citizens for decades by killing Jewish civilians.   

Looting Surging In Major American Cities

A nation was stunned by videos of roving flash mobs smashing store windows and hauling off merchandise in Philadelphia.  Gangs of young adults, working in tandem, roamed the city in a caravan, stealing with impunity last week.  Overwhelmed police could not stop the brazen crime wave.

The rampage occurred after a peaceful demonstration to protest the decision to drop charges against a Philadelphia police officer who shot and killed a young adult.  The mayor and police were emphatic: the burglaries and thefts were unrelated to the shooting and the nonviolent protests.

Philadelphia's nightmare is just the latest in an outbreak of unbridled criminal looting.  Stores in Seattle, San Francisco, New York, Portland and Los Angeles have been victimized by thieves almost daily.  Retail theft has become an epidemic that is prompting businesses to shutter stores. 

Big box store Target recently announced it was closing nine stores in major cities, citing violence, theft and concern for the safety of its employees.  Clothier Lululemon, Walmart, Starbucks, Walgreen's, CVS and Nordstrom have closed stores in areas hard-hit by repeated looting and theft. 

Some businesses, including Lululemon, have ordered employees to take no action as stores are emptied by shoplifters and mobs.  Two Lululemon employees who confronted thieves were summarily fired by the company. The message to thieves is clear: We invite you to steal merchandise.   

The perpetrators for the most part are not individual shoplifters. These are criminal enterprises operated by individuals that steal merchandise and fence the ill gotten goods for cash.   This doesn't reflect tough economic times; it is increasingly a lucrative cash business for crime networks. 

The price tag for retail theft is $112 billion so far this year, according to a retail security survey conducted by the National Retail Foundation.  That figure compares to $94 billion in 2021. Most police departments do not have a separate category to distinguish looting from robbery and larceny. 

New York Congresswoman Alexander Ocasio-Cortez has characterized the thieves as individuals who just want food to eat.  The only people going hungry are the scores of  retail employees who lose their jobs in the aftermath of store closings. 

In Los Angeles, a group of thieves ransacked a Nike store, carting off trash bags full of high-priced shoes. In San Francisco, mobs attached Victoria's Secret and Swarovski a few years ago, leaving a trail of bras and pushed jewelry boxes littering the sidewalks in their getaway.   

Police and retailers blame the lack of prosecution of thieves and the implementation of laws that make shoplifting de facto legal. California's new penal code 459 made pilfering a misdemeanor if the pilfered merchandise was valued under $950.  

California Governor Gavin Newsome recently signed a new law making shoplifting a felony IF it is carried out by a organized ring of criminals intending to resell the goods.  That's a big IF.  The state's prosecutors often decline to bring shoplifting charges or allow individuals to walk free after booking. 

Unfettered looting isn't confined to California, as the scene in Philadelphia testifies.  Criminal looters have struck in New York City, Atlanta, Minneapolis, Tampa, Bellevue (Washington), Portland and others. Looting is likely the fastest growing crime, but no data exists to verify it.    

Looters encourage other young adults to join in, posting on social media live video of their criminal escapades.  The thieves even single out which stores have insurance to cover losses, making the crime appear harmless because after all, theft really doesn't cost the business in the long run.  

Looting sprees are an outgrowth of the George Floyd riots in the summer of 2020, More than $1 billion in damages caused by arson, vandalism, and looting occurred  in the wake of 10,600 "peaceful" demonstrations that erupted in the wake of Floyd's death at the hands of a Minneapolis policeman.

While hundreds were arrested nationwide during the riots, the crime of looting went mostly unpunished.  Some mayors, including Baltimore's chief executive, ordered police to stand down and let the looters vent their frustration at the Floyd killing.  Criminals got the message.  Looting will go unpunished.

Social justice proponents like to blame the pandemic.  That's a coincidence, not a cause.  The Floyd riots ignited during the pandemic.  That was the trigger for violence, arson, attacks on police and looting. Blaming the pandemic for looting lacks credible evidence. 

Executives of retail stores from Walmart to Walgreens are encouraging police and prosecutors to crack down on these organized thefts. Retailers warn they'll be forced to raise prices and close more stores without help to address the growing threat.

Some sates are enacting tougher laws to make looting and shoplifting with intent to sell a felony.  Others are beefing up police presence in retail districts.  That's a start.  Law enfacement needs real time data, which means tracking retail theft as a separate category at the national level.

Retailers also need to do their part.  Their warnings about store closings are ignored by the mobs.  Don't just wring your hands about the losses and pass on the increase to consumers in the form of higher prices. Issue ultimatums to cities: Stop the looting or we are leaving.

In light of America's other deeper crime issues, this one is imminently solvable.    

  

Scrutinizing Those US Economic Numbers

Flurries of numbers shower Americans each month when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) unveils the latest economic data. The blizzard is left to the media and financial experts to interpret.  Too often, Americans are fed headline numbers and little else, instead of contextual clarity. 

Confusion has persisted about U.S. economic numbers since the Bureau of Labor began collecting and publishing employment and payroll data in October, 1915.  Over time, the methodologies and terminology have changed, adding to the public bewilderment.  

A looming presidential election likely will turn on economic issues, underscoring the importance of understanding the data.   Wall Street and the media appear to have little interest in peering beyond the numbers, based on current reporting and the rose-colored economic forecasts.

Amid the dizzying amount of economic data, here are some current headline numbers that are ripe for interpretation  

The pace of inflation is cooling.

The BLS reported inflation for August rose 0.6%, based on the Consumer Price Index.  The monthly increase follows 0.2% upticks in July and June. August numbers indicate that inflation may be heating up again. The government is quick to point out gasoline prices accounted for the lion's share of the gain.

The media dutifully reports the monthly data in headlines without the same attention to the 12-month change in inflation.  Prices have increased 3.7% since last August. That is higher than the 3.2% increase in July and 3.0% in June.  Clearly, inflation is proving to be stickier than experts forecast.

To justify the narrative that inflation is slowing, the media and Wall Street remind Americans the current inflation is lower than the 8.0% inflation rate for calendar year 2022.   True but hardly comforting to consumers. 

Whenever the CPI drives up inflation, the media and Wall Street turn to so-called core inflation, the preferred measurement for the Federal Reserve. Core inflation excludes prices for food and energy because of volatility.  Core inflation inched up 0.3% in August, which is 4.3% higher than August, 2022.

For average Americans, the core inflation number might as well be an unlisted telephone number.  Americans don't have the luxury of excluding energy and food from their budget.  

For further context, consider that inflation has risen 16% since January 2021, when prices roared at historic levels.  Most consumers cannot quote that number, but they know their household budgets have been impacted more than the 0.6% August increase.   

Workers wages are continuing to rise.

Americans' wages are riding an upward trajectory.   Beginning in April of 2021, wages and salaries have risen steadily more than 3.4% every month,  hitting 6.7% in July of 2022.  That same month inflation was 8.5%.  The latest available data for June shows wages and salaries climbed 4.7%.

February marked the first month since 2021 that wages grew faster than inflation, according to data compiled by Statista. 

For hourly workers, the wage growth has failed to keep up with inflation for most of this year.  June marked the first month weekly earnings rose faster than inflation.  The latest data from July revealed average hourly wages are up 1.1% on an annual basis.  

Hourly workers are falling further behind the inflation rate, which is the reason there are mushrooming demands from unions for higher wages.   

Rising wages is usually a positive sign, but inflation has made today's dollar worth less.  The BLS calculates that a dollar today only buys 88.6% of what it did in 2021. Inflation is sapping Americans purchasing power.  

Job growth points to a healthy economy.

The economy added 6.7 million jobs in 2021, the largest annual total in U.S. history. That was followed by an impressive gain of 4.5 million last year.  Year-to-date the economy has created 1.6 million jobs. That's a total for 12.8 million jobs in less than three years. An estimated 72% of the job growth represents jobs lost during the pandemic.   

Average monthly job growth has moderated this year, despite the addition of 1.6 million jobs.  The average monthly growth rate this year is 258,000 compared to nearly 400,000 last year.  In the most recent report, the economy added 187,000 jobs in August.  Job growth is decelerating.   

Last year's booming job market wasn't as robust as the monthly numbers published by the media.  That's because the BLS adjusts the figures each month.  The trend has been that the adjustments wind up reducing actual job growth.  The media usually downplays the data or ignores it.

For example, in March the BLS revised the job growth downward by 306,000.  Do you recall reading or hearing that number?  June and July numbers were reduced by a combined 110,000.  Over the last three months, the economy recorded a modest average monthly gain of 150,000 after adjustments. 

Unemployment is at historic lows.

In the latest report, the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.8%.  The rate inched up from July's 3.5%.  That still reflects a healthy job market.  However, the BLS headline number for unemployment rate is just one indicator of employment.  And it may not be the best. 

A person out of work may not be counted as unemployed. The BLS unemployment figure does not include the following: 1. Millions of so-called discouraged workers. 2. The underemployed--part-time workers who prefer a full-time job. 3. Those who don't have a job but claim they have looked for one in the past four weeks.

To get an honest picture of the employment landscape, the BLS publishes a U-6 unemployment figure that measures the total number of employees who are part of the labor force, but without a job. For example, the U-6 rate was 7.2% in August, slightly higher than the July figure of 7.1%. 

However, you will never read or hear about the U-6 data because it is entombed  in rows of tables that are included in the monthly BLS unemployment report. 

By now, you may be shaking your head and asking: "Does any of this really matter?"  This writer believe it does.  We are a nation of economic illiterates, unfortunately.  (Excluding of course you dear reader.) That matters when the economy is the top issue with voters in most years.

Americans don't have to be economic experts.  But an informed voter is best for our democracy. And the media and Wall Street are flubbing their responsibility to provide context and interpretation to help Americans digest the government data.