Washington's Failures to Supercharge EV Industry

With exuberant fanfare, the Biden Administration unveiled a plan in 2021 to spend $7.5 billion to build thousands of electric vehicle charging stations. The funding was shoehorned into the engorged $1.3 trillion Infrastructure Bill.  Three years later, guess how many stations have been constructed?

If you said "thousands" you are in the camp of most Americans.  The exact number according to the Federal Highway Administration is seven as of March 29.  The progress--or lack of it--is an indictment of government intervention into free market capitalism.

By comparison, Tesla, the U.S. EV market leader, has constructed a labyrinth of 4,436 charging stations with 27,527 total ports.  Elon Musk's company has stations in all 50 states. The public firm has managed to build out an extensive network while still making a profit for share owners. 

Companies selling electric vehicles are now partnering with Tesla to adopt a charging station standard that will support their autos. Tesla has opened its super fast charging network to Ford and GM.  Other auto companies will make their future EV's compatible with Tesla's chargers.

A group of seven auto firms recently revealed plans to open 30,000 of their own charging stations across the country under the Ionna brand name.  It is a clear signal that EV makers recognize the lack of a charging infrastructure as a major impediment to consumers purchase of electric vehicles.

Washington bureaucrats carrying suitcases full of money are no match for private industry. The charging revolution is surging without taxpayers picking up the tab.  Big government cannot not compete with the innovation and speed of businesses incentivized by profits. 

When gasoline cars replaced horses and buggies, the government did not spend a dime to build gas stations across the country.  Oil companies invested in gas stations because it was in their economic interest.  Now there are 145,000 gas stations in the U.S--not one built by Washington. 

What if the charging industry followed the evolutionary map of gas stations? Electric utility companies, like the oil producers, stand to benefit from millions of vehicles hooked up to chargers. Unleashing utilities to build retail charging networks would accelerate the deployment of a national infrastructure. 

Naturally, there would be resistance from the New Green Deal crowd, who would carp about increasing electricity output, likely through fossil fuels.  Do they not realize government chargers will be hooked up to the electric grid?  The grid will collapse without added capacity for chargers, regardless of which entity constructs the station.

The federal government also has shelled out millions of dollars in subsidies to charge up sales of electric vehicles while using regulations to quash companies building gasoline powered cars. Taxpayers, most of whom own gas vehicles, are underwriting these generous handouts to wealthy EV buyers.

A study by Harvard's Law School's Labor and Worklife Program found the so-called subsidies end up going to more affluent Americans.  The government gives up to $7,500 as an incentive for the purchase of an electric vehicle.  The study by Ashley Nunes, Ph.D., concluded the following:

"By subsidizing richer households and not secondhand (EV) buyers, we are rewarding those who aren't always helping to reach emissions targets while ignoring those who actually do.  It's a situation that is both unfair and detrimental to our climate goals."

Nunes points out that many EVs are purchased by wealthier households as secondary cars, which are typically driven fewer miles than a primary gas vehicle.  His research showed that "electric vehicles must, when used as second cars, remain in service longer to deliver an environmental benefit."

Even with government largess, the Biden Administration's plan aimed at achieving 50% of new vehicle sales to be electric by the end of the decade remains an auto galaxy too far. 

U.S. electric vehicle sales hit a record 1,189,051 last year. Electric vehicles accounted for 7.5% of the light vehicle market (excluding trucks).  However, the rate of sales growth has dipped slightly over the last six months, although it remains on a steady incline. 

Tesla has garnered the largest share of the electric vehicle market in the U.S.  Although its share dipped last year, Tesla sold 654,888 cars in 2023.  Worldwide Teslas sales soared to 1,808,581.  Tesla now has a bigger share of the U.S. car market (4.2%) than Volkswagen, Subaru, BMW or Mercedes. 

There will be an eventual rationalization of the EV market. The winners will be determined in the free market place, not dictated by Washington. Government sales goals are a poor substitute for American consumers, who are capable of choosing their next automobile purchase.

Electric car makers, especially Tesla, are gradually shrinking the cost disparity between electric and gas vehicles to even the playing field. Kelley Blue Book estimates the price paid for the average electric vehicle was $53,469 last year. By comparison, the average gasoline powered car sold for $48,334. 

With parity within grasp, there is no justification for the federal government to continue to ask taxpayers to underwrite someone who buys an electric vehicle.  Likewise, the government should scrap its exorbitantly costly plan for building chargers.

It's past time for Washington to butt out of the electric vehicle business. Less big government heavy-handed intervention and regulation will provide more impetus for the growth of the EV industry.  

Poisoning American Civility One Day At a Time

Americans are reminded ad nauseam that we are a nation divided. There is no agreement on any issue. Pundits of varying intelligence urge us not to discuss politics. The subject is too incendiary for even the family dinner table. Hunker in a bomb proof bunker until the presidential election is decided.  

Those who carp about divisions in our country never cracked a book on American history.  The United States has been disunited for most of its 247 years.  After the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860,  seven states seceded and the bloodiest war in the nation's history killed 618,222 Americans.

In 1968, the Democratic Party convention meeting in Chicago turned bloody as protestors fought with local police and national guardsmen. Tear gas was used to disperse thousands who commandeered Lincoln Park. Inside the convention, there was raucous infighting over the seating of state delegations.  

Our democracy has survived these earthquakes as well as hundreds of political aftershocks.  Division is a natural outgrowth of America's brand of democracy.  Even during World War II when America outwardly was united, there were voices of dissent in the country and in our politics. 

Step back and ask yourself: Why is the country divided today?  If you pin the blame on one of the two candidates for president, you have fallen for the partisan media's mindless doctrine. America's current divisions, like many in the past, are the byproduct of failed institutions.  

Today's media is biased, hyper-partisan and devoid of journalistic principles.  Throw social media in the mix and the result is a toxic brew which poisons politics and feeds conflict.  Americans who still care about information and news are left to sort through bins of partisan garbage to find a kernel of truth.  

Coverage of politics evokes negativity and stokes the worst human emotions.  Daily controversies are ginned up by the media to generate clicks and drive viewership numbers.  Broadcasters, newsrooms and social media influencers treat politics as a bloodsport.  

The media coverage of society, politics, issues and policy is designed to sort people into categories.  If we view America by looking in the media crockpot, we are destined for sharper divisions, perverse political discourse,  and mental stress.  

But history informs us that America's nascent media was not much more distinguished. In 1796 presidential election scandalous broadsheets were used to mercilessly smear the combatants John Adams and Thomas Jefferson. One newspaper claimed Adams wanted to become king. Sound familiar?

Congress takes no back seat to the media when it comes to name-calling and combustible rhetoric. We the people elect the 535 members of the House and Senate.  Each year the ideological center becomes smaller until it now resembles a pinprick. Lawmakers who seek compromise are voted out of office.

Congressional elections are becoming contests of the South Poles of both parties.  Each primary season Republican and Democrats vote for candidates who are more partisan.  Some would use the pejorative "extreme" to describe the electoral transition.  But, what does extreme mean today?

Elected officials must pass their party's litmus test on the issues.  If a lawmaker is not ideologically pure, then a primary opponent uses a wedge issue to displace the incumbent.  Our politics are more polarized and less civil.  Don't put all the onus on politicians.  Voters are the enemy of accommodation.

Lawmakers and the media have adopted incendiary political language that inflames public opinion.  Phrases such as far left liberal, ultra-conservative, MAGA and "woke" politicians are the equivalent of carpet bombing our politics.  Such labels do not promote dialogue or civility.   

Every national election, including the current campaign, brings out the loathsome in America.  Negativism is the grist feeding political advertising.  Pundits claim positive ads don't motivate voters, so slick campaign managers insist on a steady diet of acerbic, dreary, personal attack advertising.   

Today's ad campaigns are volcanic, but in 1964 a TV ad by Democrat President Lyndon Johnson figuratively reduced his opponent Barry Goldwater to ashes. The ad, dubbed "Daisy," featured a little girl and a nuclear mushroom cloud ignited by the Republican.

There is little new in American democracy, except the admonition not to discuss politics.  Our senses are too delicate to have conversations with friends, acquaintenaces.  Surely, you have seen unruly eruptions everywhere from school board meetings to city councils to the halls of Congress.

As a result, we have become a country of political tribalism.  People are less willing to see those of opposing views as human beings rather than enemies or dunderheads. Americans should stop taking their cues from the media and politicians and become their better selves.  

We should heed the advice of the aforementioned Thomas Jefferson:

"I never considered a difference of opinion in politics, in religion, in philosophy, as a cause for withdrawing from a friend."

Uncovering Undocumented Immigrant Crime

The brutal murder of a Georgia student shocked the nation and catapulted the illegal immigration issue front and center in the presidential election. The victim, 22-year-old Laken Riley, went for a jog and never returned. A day later an illegal immigrant from Venezuela was charged in her death.  

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) records show that the suspect, Jose Antonio Ibarra, 26, entered the United Sates illegally in September 8, 2022. Ibarra was arrested in New York City a year later for "acting in a manner to injure a child less than 17."

Despite his arrest, Ibarra was released by New York City authorities.  ICE should have been notified of the arrest and detained Ibarra.  By the time ICE learned of the details, the Venezuelan had fled the sanctuary city.  Had New York City officials followed protocol, Laken Riley would be alive.

As details of the grisly murder began gaining circulation, the legacy media launched a disinformation campaign.  Big media omitted the detail of Ibarra's immigration status in reporting on the incident. The details seeped through the national conscience on social media, exposing the cover up.

The New York Times, Washington Post and its television echo chambers tried to deflect the simmering national anger by claiming the arrest of an illegal immigrant was an isolated case.  America doesn't have a problem with "undocumented immigrant crime" was the common theme.

That became an administration talking point too, but facts keep surfacing indicating illegal immigrant crime is a bigger problem than most Americans had been led to believe.  The arrest of one Venezuelan is only the tip of a growing iceberg:

• An illegal immigrant from Honduras was arrested this month in Louisiana for robbing a man at knifepoint and repeatedly stabbing him.  After his arrest, he was also charged with allegedly raping a 14-year old girl.
• A Mexican national who entered the U.S, illegally was arrested in Washington State for allegedly crashing his SUV into a state trooper's car, killing him. Arrest documents stated the suspect had admitted drinking alcohol and smoking marijuana before getting behind the wheel.
• An illegal Salvadoran immigrant was arrested in connection with the murder of a two-year old toddler in Maryland.  He was one of five suspects arrested for the killing.
• A 34-year old Guatemalan illegal immigrant was arrested in Boston for the sexual assault of a 14-year old girl.  The suspect had been released weeks earlier by Gloucester District Court and ICE was not notified.  
• A gang of illegal immigrants stomped and kicked two New York City police officers in Times Square, the center of the city.  Five alleged assailants were released without bail and several fled to California.  

There are likely many similar illegal immigrant crimes that have gone unreported, particularly in sanctuary cities. NBC news tried to soft pedal the ugly incidents, claiming data did not support charges of a migrant crime wave.

However, the news outlet was forced to concede that "the data is incomplete on how many crimes each year are committed by migrants, primarily because most local police don't record immigration status when they make arrests." NBC's attempt at whitewash collapsed on its own admission. 

Had the reporters at NBC not had an agenda, they could have searched the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement data base.  In a weeklong law enforcement effort in January, ICE arrested 171 "non-citizens" with pending charges for murder, homicide or assaults against children.  

In fiscal year 2023, the agency arrested 73,822 "non-citizens" in the U.S. with criminal histories.  Those individuals were "associated" with 290,178 crimes and convictions, according to border patrol statistics.  If this is not a crime wave by NBC's definition, then what is?  

Agent arrests and seizures at the border offer further testimony to the crime surge.  Since 2021, agents have arrested 43,674 illegal immigrants at the border with one or more criminal convictions; seized 18,507 weapons; and, confiscated 2,031,059 rounds of ammunition.  

Finally, the Federal Bureau of Prisons released some eyeopening statistics.  As of January, 8.1% of inmates are Mexican nationals.  Non-citizens make up 15.4% of the prison population.  The numbers do not include illegal immigrants in state prisons or local jails because there is no available data.

Communities are becoming less safe because of crimes by illegal immigrants and transnational gangs, such as MS-13 from El Salvador, which ICE labeled "a threat to public safety."  Covering up this menace will not fool Americans, who now see illegal immigration as the top issue facing the nation. 

The Silent Killer That No One Likes To Talk About

It is the second leading cause of preventable deaths.  An estimated 300,000 people die annually from diseases related to this condition. Yet the issue lurks in the shadows because of unhealthy anguish about social stigma. By not shining a light on the subject, America is inviting a catastrophic health crisis.

Obesity is a health risk the nation can no longer ignore.  Obesity is linked to chronic medical conditions, including Type 2 diabetes, heart attack, stroke, kidney failure, nerve damage, gum diseases and some forms of cancer.  And there are a host of lesser disorders, such as sleep apnea.     

Statistics document that obesity is one of the most serious public health challenges of the 21st century:

• Data shows that 41.9% of adults are obese according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).  In 1995, obesity affected 15.3% of adults.  Adult obesity rates have increased 37% since 2008.

• More than 80% of obese people develop Type 2 diabetes, according to research from the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Obesity related cardiovascular disease deaths tripled between 1999 and 2020, reports the American Heart Association. 

• The American Cancer Society data found excess body weight is responsible for about 7% of all cancer deaths in the country, including 11% in women and 5% in men.  

• The rate of childhood obesity is increasing at a faster rate than adult obesity. As of 2023, one in five children in the country is obese. Youth obesity rates have increased 42% since 2008. 

• A recent report by the Milken Institute estimates the annual medical and economic impact of obesity exceeds $1.3 trillion. The direct medical costs to treat obesity related diseases ranges from $147 billion to $260 billion annually, reports the CDC. 

Who is considered obese?  Answering that question would appear simple.  The process involves a calculation based on a person's weight in pounds, divided by the height in inches squared, multiplied by 703, to determine a Body Mass Index (BMI).  The number is adjusted for age and gender.  

For the average American, it sounds like voodoo medicine.  A study reported by the NIH found only 22% of obese women and 6.7% of obese men correctly classified themselves as obese. Complexity is the enemy of dealing with preventable health issues.

Improbably, the American Medical Association has been at the forefront of quashing honest discussions about obesity and its impact on health. A report in the AMA Journal of Ethics stated that focus on BMI and weight has "yielded few health benefits and contributed to weight related discrimination."

How can the country tackle obesity if the leading medical group hushes information about unhealthy weight gain?  Apparently, the medical profession prefers to treat obesity related diseases rather than target prevention. No wonder U.S. medical costs are soaring, reaching $4.5 trillion in 2022.

Another impediment is the country's obsession with race.  Since African-Americans are disproportionately impacted by obesity, many academics and medical groups blame systemic racism for the rise of obesity.  Even pointing out the statistics is considered racist.  What does that solve?

Lifestyle choices play a large role in obesity.  Unhealthy diets and Americans addiction to screen time --cell phones, computers, video games and television--contribute to sedentary lifestyles. Only 28% of adults and 22% of adolescents meet the CDC's physical activity guidelines.

Prevention can be as simple as a healthy diet and exercise, such as walking 20 minutes a few times a week.  But let's acknowledge that for some, hormones and genetics make some people predisposed to obesity or excessive weight gain.  Unhealthy stress can also be a contributing factor. 

But why eat healthy and exercise when a drug can do the heavy lifting? It's the American way, and pharmaceutical companies are eager to profit from the solution.  The Food and Drug Administration has approved two Type 2 diabetes drugs, administered with an epipen, for weight loss.  

Diabetes medications Mounjaro from Eli Lilly and Ozempic from Novo Nordisk are soon expected to be rebranded and marketed for weight loss. Currently, the drugs cost about $1,000 to $1,200 for a month's supply. No prices have been announced for the weight loss versions.

Today most insurance companies do not cover weight loss drugs.  A 2003 law prohibits Medicare from doing so.  However, given the size of the obesity cohort, expect growing political pressure for insurance companies to cover the drugs, which will raise the cost of health premiums for everyone.

The sensible solution is for the medical profession and public health organizations to launch campaigns to increase education about the causes of obesity, while describing its harmful effects.  The campaign should include information on unhealthy foods and the benefits of physical activity. 

Unfortunately, many medical organizations and health advocates want the government to step in and legislate health.  Zealots want Washington to pass laws mandating better food labeling, healthier fast food, organic vegetables while outlawing red meat.

Onerous federal edicts are not the answer.  Arresting obesity rates requires individuals and families to take responsibility for their health. Prevention starts in the home with healthy food and physical activity. That means arming Americans with facts, not silencing discussion of obesity.  

34 Trillion Reasons To Cut Federal Spending

Every hour the U.S. debt jumps $218 million. That's $5.2 billion each day.  Current total government debt stands at a staggering $34.228 trillion. As scary as those figures are, the debt is expected to skyrocket to $50 trillion by 2033, less than a decade away.

For perspective, the nation's debt was $5.67 trillion at the beginning of 2000.  In just over two decades, the current debt is nearly seven times higher.  Since 2018, Congress has shoveled on another $12.7 trillion to the debt mountain. 

Today there is no limit on how high the federal debt can rise.  Congress passed a bill in June of last year suspending the nation's debt limit through January 1, 2025.  It is the equivalent of handing a credit card for Congress to continue to rack up more debt without any restraints.   

The debt balloon is the result of Congress's insatiable appetite for spending more than the tax dollars the government collects. In the most recent fiscal year 2023, the federal government collected $4.44 trillion in taxes, but spent $6.13 trillion, creating a $1.7 trillion deficit hole. 

Deficits matter because the feds issue debt to fund the yawning canyon between revenues and spending.  Beginning with fiscal year 2020 through 2023, the government accumulated deficits totaling $9 trillion. Even drunken sailors are spendthrifts by comparison.   

Don't expect a baptism of fiscal responsibility to convert the current Congress. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts a $1.6 trillion deficit by the end of fiscal year 2024 on September 30. Deficits are expected to top $2 trillion annually after 2031, reaching $2.6 trillion in 2034.

Revenues are not the problem.  Tax collections and fees rose 8% from 2022 to 2023.  Individual taxpayers forked over $2.18 trillion, accounting for 49% of the revenue collected by the feds. Fiscal accountability is a fleeting idea that has been drowned by a gusher of spending.

Paying for the debt created by deficit spending is getting more expensive.  Interest costs have nearly doubled the past three years from $345 billion in 2020 to $659 billion in 2023.  Interest is now the fourth largest spending category, behind only Social Security, Medicare and defense.

Those eye watering figures are projected to get worse.  Based on trends, the CBO forecasts that interest on federal debt will reach $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2033, creating a budget nightmare.  This is fiscally unsustainable without Draconian tax increases or budget cuts or both.   

Balancing the budget, a feat performed by millions of American households, is apparently beyond the mental acuity of Congress.  Only twice in the last half-century has Congress found the political will to reach financial equilibrium--in 1969 and from 1998-2001 under President Bill Clinton,

Before even tackling a balanced budget, Congress must first reign in deficits.  Although it's easy to blame COVID spending for the spike in the size of deficits, Congress has been spending more than government revenues for the last 22 years.  Lawmakers have a spending dependency. 

Since 1997, senators and representatives of both parties have ignored the regular budget process of approving a budget that fully funds the government.  Congress seems to prefer chaos, failing to pass more than five of its 12 regular appropriation bills by the deadline in the last 26 years. 

In 11 of the past 13 fiscal years, lawmakers have not passed a single spending bill by October 1, which marks the beginning of a new federal budget year.  Instead, Congress employs a shell game, approving what's called continuing resolutions to partially fund the government over several months. 

Continuing resolutions maintain government funding at current levels, but often supplemental appropriations are shoehorned into a CR.  These stopgap gimmicks allow lawmakers to spend while obfuscating the full impact on deficits. This lack of transparency would not be tolerated in any business.

For all the brouhaha over CR's, these appropriation measures only cover discretionary spending. The hefty money is federal outlays for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment compensation and other entitlement programs. Funding is mandated by statues.  

These programs accounted for $4.6 trillion in spending in 2023, about 73% of the federal budget. Unless Congress tackles mandatory appropriations, spending will reach the stratosphere.  Lawmakers of both parties are deathly afraid of the political blowback of even suggesting a reduction in programs. 

Representatives and Senators are easily spooked.  Mention "government shutdown," defaulting on the national debt," or "reducing food stamps" and lawmakers capitulate. They prefer political theatre and gamesmanship to tackling the unpalatable but essential choices to restore fiscal integrity. 

What will it take to restore financial sanity?  Most likely an economic meltdown.  Short of a financial Armageddon, the solution is for voters to quit electing the same people to Congress and expecting a different outcome.  If voters make balancing the budget their top priority, there is hope for change. 

Organized Theft Buffeting Retail Industry

An epidemic of theft, fraud and robberies are forcing the shuttering of retail stores across many cities.  Walmart is closing stores in Chicago and New York City. Target shut down nine stores in four cities, including Portland and Seattle. Big box chains are abandoning downtown San Francisco.  

A CVS Pharmacy, located in Washington, D.C., has been ransacked so many times by mobs of teenagers that the firm announced it is abandoning the store next month.  A spokesman said groups of as many 45 teenagers regularly clean out the store, leaving rows of empty shelves.  

The crime wave is a burgeoning threat to the $1.3 trillion retail industry, according to a report by the National Retail Federation (NRF). Longstanding risks such as robbery and in-store theft are not the only problems. The industry also has been battered by return fraud, gift card fraud and payment fraud.

Petty theft and shoplifting are overshadowed by the emergence of gangs of organized criminals operating in major cities.  Teams of thieves smash stolen cars into stores and haul away hundreds of goods.  The criminals resell the merchandise on the black market to make a profit.  

NRF research found 70% of retailers reported an increase in organized crime incidents over the last five years.  The data shows 38% of organized crime occurred in-store, while 45% transpires en route from the distribution center to the retailer's store. 

The survey of retailers found that 48% of stores reduced operating hours because of crime. Another 29.7% trimmed product selection and 28.1% reported closing specific store locations.  Scores of Mom and Pop stores have been the hardest hit by criminal activity.

"Retailers are seeing unprecedented levels of theft coupled with rampant crime in their stores, and the situation is only becoming more dire," said NRF, VP David Johnson. "Far beyond the financial impact of these crimes, the violence and concerns for employee and customer safety are our priority."

Leaders from the retail industry testified before a Congressional Committee in December, detailing the scope of the problem.  Increased violence involving theft is causing injury to employees and consumers, the death of some retail associates and a fear of working or shopping in high-crime locations, they said. 

The NRF is lobbying Congress to pass a Combating Organized Retail Crime Act, to crack down on organized retail crime.  The bipartisan legislation, if approved, would create an intra-agency group within Homeland Security to coordinate with other federal law enforcement agencies to rein in crime.

Financial losses are soaring for retailers. Retailers were hit with $112.1 billion in retail theft in 2022, the latest annual data available.   Shoplifting losses grew 19.4% over 2021. Retailers lost an additional $84.9 billion in fraudulent sales returns, which represent a mushrooming concern for the industry. 

In the absence of 2023 numbers, William Blair Investment Banking analyzed NRF data and estimated that retailers absorbed $142 billion in inventory shrinkage and theft losses, a jump of 25% from 2022. Shrinkage is a retail industry term for the difference between inventory and actual physical goods.  

Large organizations of professional shoplifters are taking advantage of soft-on-crime policies in big cities to steal store goods and resell the merchandise openly on the streets, sometimes not far from the scene of the crime. The lucrative nature of the theft is encouraging more individuals to turn to crime. 

In California, home to the largest increase in organized theft, the state passed a law that stipulates stealing merchandise worth $950 or less is a misdemeanor.  It often means that law enforcement likely won't bother to investigate and prosecutors will let offenders off, even if police arrest someone.

Transnational criminal organizations crossing the southern border are contributing to the rising tide of theft in both urban and rural areas, Texas Rep. August Pfluger told a Congressional hearing.  Lenient crime legislation, no cash bail laws, reduced police presence and weak-kneed district attorneys are all to blame for the explosion of retail theft.

Many legacy news outlets and social justice advocates blame retailers, accusing them of manipulating theft data to camouflage a decline in profits.  Since most retailers are regulated by the Securities & Exchange Commission, auditors would have ferreted out these irregularities. 

There are liberals in Congress, such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who has repeatedly claimed that the spike in retail theft is evidence that desperate families are shoplifting food because of rampant hunger. The data undermines her attempt to raise sympathy for thieves.

Retail industry statistics show that among the most stolen items are athletic clothes, mobile devices, denim, cosmetics, handbags, jackets, sneakers, mechanic tools, beauty aids, alcohol, candy, gum and energy drinks.  Hunger may be a real issue in New York, but these items won't feed a family. 

The real victims are consumers--you and me--who end up paying for the thievery.  Retailers losses are passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.  Without a sea change, stores will be forced to hire more armed guards and lock up merchandise to protect inventory, souring the shopping experience.

It's time to quit coddling criminals and declare war on organized theft. Since 2022, nine states have passed laws to impose harsher penalties for organized retail crime.  Inexplicably, states hardest hit, such as California and New York as well as the District of Columbia, continue their ineffective approaches.

Communities need to demand more police presence, stronger prosecutors and tougher laws.  Hard working Americans should not have to pay for the criminal spree sweeping the retail industry.  

Top 12 Predictions For 2024

Stock in prognosticators plunged in 2023.  Almost no one forecast last year would be a boon for the stock market.  Wall Street experts predicted doom and gloom, including the likelihood of an economic recession.  Despite bank failures and accelerated interest rate hikes, bulls trampled market angst. 

Many forecasters might be in hibernation after last year's experience, especially those who suffer from Atelophobia (the fear of being wrong). Against the current backdrop of wars, political chaos and global disorder, it will be challenging for prognosticators to divine a vision in a world of dense fog.    

Your writer has many flaws but doesn't suffer from failure anxiety nor does he shy from predictions.  My confidence is bolstered by picking the S&P would increase 20% in 2023.  The index finished with a gain of 24%.  With 2023 gone and forgotten, here are the Top 12 forecasts for 2024:

1. The economy defied predictions of a recession last year, but the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow a modest 1.9% for 2024.  Consumer spending was the driver for economic growth last year, however, signs point to a retreat.  Consumer debt is at a historic level of $1.3 trillion and credit card rates are near 20% APR.  After a robust 2023 and the usual Christmas splurge, consumer spending will taper off, but will not crater. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of GDP.

2. The stock market rocketed higher in the final months of 2023, driven by the Magnificent Seven: Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Nividia, Tesla and Alphabet while the rest of the stocks were stuck in limbo.  Adoption of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI)  juiced average gains of 100% for the seven as PE ratios reached the stratosphere. This year Wall Street will be looking closer at AI revenues not just shiny forecasts.  Overall, the seven and a few big tech stocks will outperform the overall market, but the growth will be pale in comparison to last year. Presidential elections are usually good for markets, but the three major indices will give back much of last year's supersized gains, finishing with mixed results.  The NASDAQ will eke out a single digit gain.    

3. The Federal Reserve will lower rates twice in 2024, with reductions in the second and fourth quarters, surprising Wall Street and roiling the markets. After teasing three rate reductions, beginning in the first quarter, the Fed turns cautious as stubborn inflation remains above the preferred target of 2% throughout the year.  The nation's fiscal deficit will nudge $1.9  trillion, worrying Fed governors enough to temper major reductions in interest rates. Each rate cut will be a tepid 25 basis points with more promised in 2025. There is one caveat: If the economy weakens in an election year, the Fed may bow to political pressure and vote to cut rates four times. 

4. Major union contracts will help stoke inflationary pressure. Unions won big increases at UPS, the Big Three automakers and Hollywood studios last year but a full-year of costs will hit corporate bottom lines this year, leading to price increases.  There are several big contracts to be negotiated this year, including at AT&T, Boeing, American Airlines flight attendants, postal workers and Anheuser-Busch.  Wage hikes and offsetting price increases are a major risk to inflation.    

5. Momentum in the job market wanes from 2022-2023 levels because the economy has fully absorbed the labor displacement caused by the pandemic. While some industries cannot find enough workers, other sectors are beginning to layoff employees in the face of softer demand and rising expenses. Job growth in December was driven by payroll gains in state and local governments and healthcare. The job quitting surge will gradually return to normal levels. As a result of these issues, unemployment will drift higher throughout the year, reaching 4.1% in the fourth quarter.

6. With housing affordability metrics already at a 40-year low, sales of residential property will flatline. More Americans will choose renting because home values in many markets continue to rise amid tight supply.  About 75% of Americans have mortgage rates locked in at 4% or lower, presenting another headwind for a rebound in the housing sector.  One optimistic scenario: Soft sales may actually lower home prices, triggering a fourth quarter uptick.

7. Geopolitical risks are increasingly creating global economic shudders.  Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East coupled with saber rattling by North Korea are a powder keg waiting to explode. The widening of conflict in the Middle East will disrupt shipping of goods, trigger supply chain bottlenecks and destabilize global oil supply.  An unintended incident may spark an increased military escalation. Meanwhile, Russia will make significant progress in its ongoing war against Ukraine, dashing hopes for a peace agreement.

8 Local TV stations, supported by the National Association of Broadcasters,  will increase lobbying of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) to regulate streaming services as the agency does cable companies.  With cord cutting showing no signs of abating, there is an urgency to the effort. Streaming services currently have agreements with the major networks for carriage, but local TV outlets claim the deals are too low to support their operations. Streaming services are fighting back with their own powerhouse lobbying effort, which will quash the regulatory push. 

9.  Investments in data hubs skyrockets as global business demand soars for online content, cloud services and artificial intelligence.    Data centers are already experiencing a once-in-a-generation growth making it financially attractive to add more capacity.  Unless capacity increases, the rapid development of generative AI applications will be adversely effected. The big cloud companies--Amazon, Microsoft and Google--cannot expand fast enough to handle skyrocketing demand. 

10. China resorts to using political upheaval in Taiwan to bring the island nation closer to Beijing's rule, much as it did in Hong Kong.  The Communist regime will continue its hostile military provocations around Taiwan to spook democratic independence. Chairman Xi Jinping has vowed to bring Taiwan under Communist control. With the Chinese economy melting down, the leader needs a distraction to rally his country. There is no better time to act than 2024 with the U.S. military occupied with the Middle East.  

11. Small and regional banks with significant exposure to commercial real estate will be under increasing pressure, fueling a handful of bailouts.  With $550 billion of maturing commercial real estate debt this year, losses are forecast to mount for lenders and investors. Commercial real estate faces other turbulence, including the highest vacancy rate since 1979.  The national vacancy rate hit 19.6% in the fourth quarter.  Since the pandemic, remote work has become so ingrained at many companies which will hollow out office buildings.    

12.  There is at least a fifty-fifty chance that neither President Joe Biden nor former President Donald Trump will be on the general election ballot in November.  Biden's age, historically low poll numbers and his erosion with the Democratic Party base will prompt the donor class to back an alternative.  The most likely scenario: the president will bow out at the Democratic Party National Convention.  Trump and his Mount Everest of legal problems will deal a fatal blow to his candidacy.  The Department of Justice is determined to jail Trump by mid-year and major GOP donors are lining up to support Nikki Haley.  Predicting a winner in November is impossible without knowing the nominees. Republicans take back the Senate but lose the House by a handful of seats.