Monday, May 28, 2012

The 1.8 Percent That Matters This Election

While President Obama obsesses over the wealthy one-percent, Republican challenger George Romney is courting the 1.8 percent of the nation's 131 million voters who tipped the electoral scales in the 2008 election.  These Americans reside in nine battleground states targeted by the GOP.

Obama claimed victory by a combined margin of 2,372,750 votes in these key states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, Indiana, Colorado and Iowa. In all but three, the president had an edge of 4.5 percent or less of the total votes cast.

Without these wafer-thin wins, Barrack Obama would have spent the last four years in the U.S. Senate.  If the nine states had swung to John McCain, the Republican would have won the electoral vote 305 to 233 instead of losing 365 to 173.  This year, like 2008, the closely contested race is expected to turn on these same states.

Much has changed since Obama claimed the presidential prize, particularly in the nine pivotal states where the GOP has chalked up decisive gains in state and Congressional elections.  Here is a look at the state-by-state issues that could alter the political landscape this election.

Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Michigan account for 78 electoral votes, which represents 28 percent of the total needed to win the presidency.  To underscore how close the last election was, Obama won North Carolina's popular vote by 14,177 out of 4.2 million ballots.

The Big Four are fertile ground for the Republicans this time around. Voters in Florida, Ohio and recently North Carolina have approved bans on same sex marriage by overwhelming majorities.  The president thumbed his nose at these voters by "evolving" his position to pro-gay marriage.  

Republicans have more than social issues going for them. Unemployment rates in Michigan, Florida and North Carolina exceed the national average of 8.1 percent as the recession lingers.  Florida, Michigan and Ohio rank in the top ten worst states for home foreclosures.

In Virginia, the president's margin of victory over GOP nominee John McCain was 234,527 out of 3.7 million ballots.  Since the last presidential election, Virginia voters green-lighted a ban on same-sex marriage.  Voters in two other swing states, Colorado and Wisconsin, also came down on the same side of the issue.

Home foreclosures also have swamped Wisconsin.  It ranks tenth nationally among the hardest hit states. Republicans have flexed their political muscles in Wisconsin, picking a fight with public sector unions.  Contrary to pundit opinion, the brouhaha may end up harming Democrats worse than the GOP.

Not much has been made in the mainstream media about the issue of the Catholic Church's legal assault on behalf of religious freedom.  As the controversy festers, it could become a defining issue for voters in states like Wisconsin, where more than 40 percent of the population is Catholic.

Indiana was another squeaker for Obama.  He posted a razor-thin margin of 28,397 votes out of 2.75 million ballots.  Hooiser state voters had voted Republican in every presidential election since 1972 until Obama's upset in 2008.  Republicans now control the governor's mansion and other key offices.

In Iowa, the political winds are shifting after Democratic Party presidential candidates eked out wins in five of the last six general elections.  Obama's victory margin was less than 10 percent of all the ballots cast.  Republicans now hold most of the state's top elective offices, including the governorship.

Obama has deep divisions within his own party, too.  As evidence, an imprisoned felon received 41 percent of the vote in West Virginia's Democratic Party presidential primary.  Obama narrowly won the Arkansas primary after an unknown Tennessee lawyer garnered 42 percent of the vote.  In Kentucky, "uncommitted" finished second to Obama with 42 percent of the ballots.

That's why it is comical to watch the president harp on the one-percent in every speech.  His arrogance misleads him to believe Americans owe him another term in office.  The president is in for a rude awakening.   

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