Immigration: Pandering to Hispanic Voters

As Congress hammers out details of a bipartisan immigration bill, pundits and the media elite have begun lecturing Republicans on why they must embrace the sweeping legislation.  Conventional wisdom maintains it would be political suicide for the GOP to oppose reform, even if it is flawed.

This notion fluttered out of the ashes of GOP nominee Mitt Romney's stinging defeat to President Obama, who won 71 percent of the Hispanic vote.  A hue and cry arose about Romney's chilly support (27%) among Hispanics as evidence the elephantine party would never win another national election.

Political hacks, inside the Beltway eggheads and the GOP cognoscenti panicked, calling for Republicans to pander to Hispanics to regain power.  Latino birthrates are soaring, which means hordes will be voting for Democrats unless there is a sea change, they argued.

There is just one problem with this story line.  Mitt Romney lost the election because of the low turnout among white voters and a high black voter turnout, not because of the Latino vote.  Had turnout among whites and blacks matched 2004 levels, Romney would now occupy the Oval Office.  

That is the conclusion of demographer William H. Frey of Brookings Institute. Frey reached that determination after examining Census data, voter turnout records and exit polling conducted by the Pew Research Center and others in the last presidential election.

African-American voter turnout eclipsed Hispanics. The later represented 10 percent of the total vote, while blacks were 13 percent.  Turnout among Latinos was a dismal 50 percent, compared to 65 percent for blacks.  Overall turnout was 58 percent of registered voters.    

There is so much misinformation about Hispanic voters that a few facts are required to set the record straight:

• Beginning with the 1980 presidential election when research began, Democrats have always carried the Latino vote by healthy margins.  No Republican has ever received more than 40 percent, a high water mark reached by George W. Bush in 2004. Democrats have garnered at least 60 percent of the Hispanic vote in every presidential election since 1980 with the exception of 2004.  Hispanics with household incomes below $50,000 voted overwhelmingly Democrat (82% vs. 17%) in the last presidential election.  
• Despite rising population growth, Hispanics are not projected to surpass the share of eligible black voters until at least 2024.  That estimate is based on historic turnout, voter registration levels and the requirement of citizenship to cast a ballot.   Today Latinos represent 17 percent of the population, but only 11 percent of eligible voters.  By comparison, African-Americans represent 12 percent of eligible voters.  
• Even if the 11 million illegal immigrants now living in the U.S. are granted instant citizenship, Hispanics could only claim 16 percent of eligible voters by 2026.  That assumes current registration levels among this minority group.  Some media estimates have put the number of potential Latino voters at 25 to 30 percent of the electorate in 13 years  Pseudo experts are basing those guess-estimates solely on birth rates, an unreliable gauge of registration and turnout.    

No one is arguing that Republicans ignore Hispanics or any demographic for that matter.  However, Republicans have been trying for decades to coax a larger share of the black vote without success.  Their chances with Latinos are equally bleak.  Both minorities have historic Democrat Party roots, cultivated for decades by embedded liberal activists groups and community agitators.      

The GOP needs to disabuse itself of the idea that support for immigration reform will make Latinos swoon for Republicans.  No matter what happens on immigration, Hispanics will cling to the Democrat Party.   That's why Republicans should base their immigration vote on principles not politics.