What Statistics Tell Us About the World's Future

Population and demographic projections offer clues of a seismic shift ahead for the world.   The numbers and the associated forecasts raise unsettling questions about economic, religious and geopolitical inflections for the future.

Studies conclude more people than ever will inhabit Earth. The world's population doubled in 40 years from 1959 to 1999 when the count reached 6 billion.  By 2042, birth rate patterns suggest the population will increase by 50 percent to 9 billion.  Twenty years after it will climb to 10 billion.

Those estimates from a World Population Prospects report published by the United Nations foreshadow slower growth than many had predicted only decades ago.

In most countries, birth rates have fallen despite previous dire predictions of a population explosion. The United States hit a record low in recent years.  European birth dates have precipitously nosedived.  Even in China and India, the fertility rates have slipped from stratospheric highs.

According to figures compiled by the United Nations, Africa is now the fastest growing continent.  Population is expanding at a rate of 2.46 percent a year.  There are 1.1 billion people today living in Africa.  By 2050, estimates are 25 percent of the world's inhabitants will reside in Africa.

Asia will account for 54.1 percent of the population in 2050, despite lower growth rates.  Today China and India make up nearly 37 percent of the planet's population.  By comparison, the United States represents more than four percent of the world's population, but its share is shrinking.

To underscore the African boom, eight of the top ten fastest growing countries in the world are located on the continent, reports the U.S. Census Bureau.  Africa is the second largest continent on the planet in both land area and population today.

What concerns demographers is that Africa has the highest rate of poverty in the world, according to the U.N. Human Development Report.  Thirty-four of the 54 countries on the continent hold spots on the U.N.'s list of least developed nations.  Sub-Sharan Africa has the world's worst HIV epidemic.

Africa also has the world's highest death rates and the lowest life expectancy, which underscores that soaring birth dates are driving the prolific population numbers.  The boost in new inhabitants can mainly be attributed to the continent's thriving Muslin population.

Birth rates among Muslin women worldwide average 2.4 children. This is significantly above the population replacement level of 2.1 births. Nigeria, which ranks fifth worldwide in number of Muslin inhabitants, has the planet's highest fertility rate at 6.01 births.  The U.S. average is 1.97 births.  

Studies conducted in 2011 by the Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion and Public Life confirmed Islam is the world's fastest growing religion.  In 2010, there were 1.6 billion Muslims, representing one-fifth of the world's population.  Pew estimates Muslims will comprise 26.4 percent in less than 20 years.

A total of 79 countries will have a million or more Muslin inhabitants by 2030, prophesies Pew. Indonesia has more than 205 million Muslims today, about 88 percent of the country's population. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Egypt, Iran, Turkey, Algeria and Morocco rank among the top ten in numbers of Muslims.

If current birth rates among Muslins follow trend projections, Islam "may remain the fastest growing religion in the world for the foreseeable future," predicts the Population Reference Bureau. Pew's findings echo that outlook.

In its 209-page report, Pew researchers wrote that the "Muslin population is forecast to grow about twice the rate of the non-Muslin population over the next two decades."  During that period, Pakistan is expected to overtake Indonesia as the world's most populous Muslin nation.

In the United States, Pew forecasts the number of Muslims will more than double rising from 2.6 million to 6.2 million by the year 2030.  If that happens, Muslims will be as roughly numerous as Jews or Episcopalians are today in the U.S.

Islam is the legally favored religion in nine countries today, including Afghanistan, Iraq, Malaysia, Pakistan, Morocco, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia and Jordan.  However, only Saudi Arabia and Iran are ruled by Islamic law.  

What do all those numbers and forecasts mean for the the United States and the rest of the world?

The honest answer is no one knows for certain. Trends can and do change.  Witness the world's declining birth rate.  However, if the projections materialize then the U.S. along with the rest of the world's nations better start preparing for a very different future.