Monday, September 21, 2015

It's the Economy, Stupid

American voters historically care most about pocketbook issues. Foreign policy, immigration, nuclear treaties, the federal budget and even government debt, while important, are tucked away in the backseat. That political lesson seems to be wasted on presidential candidates this season.

Yet polls show that Americans overwhelmingly believe Mr. Obama's policies have failed to revive the country's economy.  In the latest Gallup survey, exactly one-half of Americans think the economy is getting worse.  Despite the evidence, no candidate has tackled voters' concern about the economy.  

America's economy, as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has limped along since the 2008 recession. The GDP is one of the primary indicators used to measure the health of world economies. It represents the total dollar value of all goods and services the country produces.

The world's largest economy has not reached three percent annual GDP growth during Obama's tenure. Since 1948, U.S. economic growth has averaged 3.23 percent annually.  A three percent growth rate is one sign of a flourishing economy.  

In six recoveries from past recessions the American economy averaged 3.97 percent growth after 23 quarters.  The average annual growth rate for the Obama economy is 2.24 percent, stamping it as the weakest recovery in U.S. history.  That fact has been buried by the mainstream media.      

The highest annual GDP growth achieved under Obama was 2.5 percent in 2010, according to figures published by The World Bank.  Last year's growth was 2.4 percent.  This tortoise-like expansion has been recorded despite the federal government borrowing more than $7 trillion in the last six years.

How bad is America's economic track record?  Here is a partial list of nations that beat U.S. GDP growth last year: Algeria, Kenya, Bangladesh, Guyana, Burundi, Honduras, Mongolia, Mali, Nepal and Bahrain.  Not exactly a who's who of world economic heavyweights.

While the U.S. economy resembles a 100-pound weakling, China's growth has out muscled the rest of the world.  It has been increasing GDP by 7 percent or more since 2010.  For all the talk about a slowdown in China's economy, it still expanded 7.4 percent last year.

America's economic malaise has hit wage earners where it hurts most. Inflation-adjusted wage growth has been almost flat, according to the Economic Policy Institute. Average hourly earnings for private sector jobs have risen $3.52 since 2008.  That's about 50-cents per hour annually.  

The percentage of Americans in the labor force is at a 38-year low of 62.6 percent.  It was 65.7 percent when President Obama arrived in the Oval Office.  Americans are fleeing the work force at an alarming pace, partly because of the retirements of the Baby Boomer generation.

Another factor behind the decline is the rip tide of Americans signing up for Social Security disability insurance.  The number of disability applications more than doubled between 2000 and 2010.  As a result, there are nearly 9 million Americans now receiving disability benefits from the government.

Not helping matters, the number of part-time workers has soared to 18.1 percent of the labor force. Many of them want full-time jobs but cannot find one.  In a recent paper, the Federal Reserve of Chicago found a strong link between slow wage growth and the uptick in part-time workers.

From his perch in the White House, President Obama spins all this ugly economic news as Republican chatter.  He brags that he personally saved America from a second Great Depression. Unemployment has nosedived below 6 percent, he crows to reinforce his egotistical boast.

However, low unemployment usually means higher wages because of the demand for new workers. Hasn't happened.  It nearly always results in more economic activity as consumers increase spending. Hasn't happened.  Full-time payrolls should be swelling.  Hasn't happened.

Mr. Obama's legacy will be a flaccid economy that never achieved lift-off despite massive spending and record debt.  The next president must be prepared to jump start the American growth engine. It would be encouraging for voters to hear candidates airing ideas on their plans for economic revival.

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