Monday, November 30, 2015

Climate Change: Assessing the Health Impact

When the Earth began to form an estimated 4.6 billion years ago, the climate was decidedly inhospitable.  Scientists believe clouds of hydrogen and helium and interstellar dust cloaked the Earth. Astroids, meteors and comets bombarded the globe before it morphed into a habitable planet.

Even today, the Earth is still adjusting, progressing through periods of cooling and warming as it continues to evolve.

Unfortunately, Americans have been indoctrinated to believe any changes in climate are abnormal. However, scientific research shows the Earth's history has been marked by ice ages, followed by shorter-term warmer temperatures, the retreat of glaciers and then the return of colder temperatures.

Researchers at the Utah Geological Survey have documented at least five major ice ages on the planet.  The earliest was more than two billion years ago and the most recent one began three million years ago and it continues today.  Surprise! The Earth is at the tail end of an ice age.

About 20,000 years ago, the average temperature on Earth was about 10 degrees Fahrenheit colder than today.  In some regions of the world, it was as much as 40 degrees colder.  Around 11,500 years later, there was a sudden 20 degree Fahrenheit spike in temperatures, the Utah scientists reported.

During the last 100,000 years, scientists have recorded sudden changes in temperatures 24 times, the Utah geologists have written. That fact has never crept it into the mainstream media because their narrative has argued that even one degree change in temperatures will produce catastrophic results.

Another "mini-ice age" may be in the Earth's future.  Climate modeling by Northumbria University in Wales predicts colder temperatures from 2030 through 2040 as a result of decreased solar activity. In a study released last week, scientists estimated a 60 percent drop in the sun's activity for a decade.

Regardless of what you believe about the credibility of claims about man-made climate change, there is indisputable evidence that the Earth's climate is not static.  Today's climate will not be the same 1,000 years from now as it is today, even if all greenhouse gasses are eliminated.

Against that background comes a new report from the Government Accountability Office (GAO) on the potential health impact of changes in the climate.  The document does not wade into the debate about what causes climate change, instead focusing on planning for the inevitable health risks.

Whether the Earth warms or cools rapidly, sudden and sustained changes will affect health of the world's inhabitants.  Since climate changes unequally affect some regions and countries, the impact may be more severe in different parts of the world, including the United States.

Changes in temperatures, precipitation, storms and sea levels have the potential for increasing health risks for allergies, asthma, respiratory diseases, food-and-water-borne illnesses, heat-related deaths and vector-borne diseases transmitted by insects, the GAO report points out.

Planning for the likelihood of these health calamities is a prudent precaution. The problem is that an alphabet-soup of federal and state agencies are involved in the planning, reporting  and researching of the the adverse effects of climate change on health, according to the GAO.

In its research, the GAO interviewed staff at 26 federal agencies involved with the issues connected to climate change and associated health risks.  That is part of the problem.  The myriad of federal agencies have shared few details with the states and cities that are on the front lines of health issues.

In its recommendations, the GAO called on the Health and Human Services Secretary to direct the Centers for Disease Control to develop a plan to assume the lead role in assessing the health risks and communicating the results to states and cities.  That is a sensible first step.

Instead of debates over climate change causes, the country would be better served by preparedness to deal with health issues.  Moves to levy carbon taxes, ban gasoline automobiles, outlaw coal plants and stifle debate will have a tiny or no impact on the Earth's natural maturation process.

Politicians have employed scare tactics to raise fears over climate change.  What has been missing is a historical perspective on the Earth's inevitable climate evolution.  Too many Americans have been duped by climate fiction promoted by activists masquerading as scientists.

Once Americans better understand the health risks, they will support plans to prepare for the inevitable changes in the Earth's climate.

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