Sunday, October 28, 2018

Sizing Up the Midterm Election

Leading up to the November midterm election, the most hackneyed headline is: "Democrat Voter Enthusiasm Surging." Virtually every mainstream media propaganda machine has churned out stories predicting a Blue Wave sweeping Democrats into power.  Forecasters are ignoring the past.

In the last midterm election in 2014, the country recorded the lowest voter turnout in history.  Even by midterm standards, turnout was a clunker.  An anemic 36.4 percent of eligible voters bothered to go to the polls.  That was five percent less than 2012, another disappointing year for turnout.

Going back to 1916, midterm voter turnout has been significantly less than presidential election years. Since 1970, midterm election turnout has been sinking.  In every single one of those years, both political parties claimed voter enthusiasm was soaring off the charts.  Reality always bites.

Midterms since 1970 have generated turnout in the 40-percent range.  By comparison, presidential election years historically attract higher turnouts, mostly in the 60-percent range. The highest voter turnout in the midterms in recent history was the 1962 election with 47.7 percent.

The 2014 midterm is a likely predictor for the upcoming election.  That year was the most expensive midterm in United States history with an estimated $3.7 billion lavished on election campaigns.  Even gobs of cash failed to nudge the enthusiasm needle.  Turnout was the worst in 72 years.

Experts have analyzed midterm elections and written weighty tomes about why voters stay home. Voters lack interest.  Midterms don't have the sizzle of a presidential campaign.  There are fewer candidates on the ballot.  There are more excuses than votes cast.  (That's hyperbole by the way.)

So why will this midterm be different?  Because the media tells us so?  New polling data indicates that despite all the  media hype, this midterm may see an uptick in turnout, but mostly in Blue states. The rest of the country may follow the midterm norm. Expect frosty voter interest.

Already the two parties are hyperventilating about the long lines of early voters foreshadowing a record turnout.  However, analytics have shown there is no correlation.  In fact, a Pew Research analysis of past elections concluded that heavy early voting indicates a reduction in total turnout.

Early voting is billowing because growing numbers of people prefer to skip the long lines on election day. In the 1996 election, Pew found an estimated 10.5% of voters cast early ballots.  By the 2012 election, the number had zoomed to 36.6%.  In some states, more than 50% of people vote early.

There is no scientific evidence that early voting signals an inflated turnout, regardless of media claims to the contrary.  None.  Nada.  Perhaps this election will prove to be an outlier.  But claims that swollen early ballots is a precursor to heavy turnout should be taken with a heavy dose of skepticism.

Millennials may be a better barometer of turnout.  A poll released by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic found that only 28 percent of young people aged 18-29 say they will "certainly vote."  That compares with 74 percent of seniors.  Midterms are a snooze for Millennials.

Latinos, another reliable Democrat voting bloc, normally sit out the midterms. A Pew Research analysis found a record 29 million Latinos are eligible to vote this year.  However, Latino turnout in the midterms has declined every year since 2006, tumbling to a historic low 27 percent in 2014.

Despite all the hubbub over the influence of the Latino vote, no one mentions that 71 percent of Hispanics who are eligible to vote live in six states: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Arizona and Illinois.  At least three of those states are traditionally Blue Dog Democrat strongholds.

In recent elections, the media point to the power of suburban professional women voters. Democrats traditionally do well with this group.  But even with this geographic solidly in the Blue corner, Democrats have to energize young and Latino voters to gain a clear advantage.

History may turn out to be the Democrats' best friend.  The president's party has lost seats in Congress in 40 of the 43 midterm elections held in the United States.  It's almost impossible to buck the trend.  The exceptions to the rule occurred in 1934, 1998 and 2002. Will 2018 follow the script?

One unknown factor is  the rising voter approval for President Trump.  In the most recent national poll his approval scaled a peak of 47 percent.  Going into the 2014 midterms, former President Obama's approval stood at 43 percent.  Will that three-point gap made a difference?  No one knows.

Pundits are making predictions based on outdated forecast models.  Put no faith in them because their sophisticated tools have been proven wrong too often. (See 2016 Presidential Election.) Tell me which voters will turnout and I will be able to forecast the winning party with 100 percent accuracy.

Ignore the polling, excessive campaign spending, targeted voter appeals and the media hype and party evangelism. This midterm will hinge on how many people actually go to the polls.  It's that simple. The rest is just mind-numbing political mumbo jumbo.

Monday, October 22, 2018

Tribute to The Passing of an Old Friend

It is with melancholy that I mark the passing of an old friend.  This companion was in my home when my children were born.  The friend clothed my family, delivered Christmas presents and even mowed my lawn.  That's why I despaired when the news broke about the demise of iconic retailer Sears.

Our relationship began when I was a child.  The arrival of the Sears Christmas Catalog in our home was met with shrieks of joy.  My siblings and I pored over the toy section, dreaming of Santa Claus and Christmas morning.  By Christmas day, the catalog was dog-eared and tattered from use.

After Princess Dianna and I were married, one of our initial purchases was a Kenmore washer and dryer.  It survived two babies in the era before disposable diapers, chugging almost nonstop to clean cloth diapers.  Those sturdy machines, like many Sears appliances, lasted 15 years.

I acquired my first lawn mower from Sears after buying my first home.  The first set of tires I purchased came from Sears.  When the battery died in my car, I made a trip to Sears for a DieHard.  The first tool box and tools I owned were Sears' Craftsman.  (I never did learn how to operate them.)

Sears products were the gold standard for reliability.  If an appliance ever stopped working, there was a local store with a repair person to fix it.  Even small towns had a Sears outlet.  At the height of its retailing empire, there were nearly 1,000 Sears stores stretching from coast to coast.

The retail Goliath was born more than a century ago when a former railway station agent (Richard Sears) and a watchmaker (Alvah Roebuck) partnered together to become Sears, Roebuck and Company. They launched a catalog of watches and jewelry in 1888 and incorporated in 1893.

From those humble beginnings, Sears branched out from watches into a full blown retail company, offering clothes, appliances and products for cars.  Its beloved catalog ballooned to 532 pages, serving as a consumer Bible.  Not to mention that it was used as toilet paper in the era of outhouses.

The firm sold stock in 1906 in the first initial public offering for an American retail firm.  The same year it opened a 40-acre logistics center in Chicago, then called the Seventh Wonder of the World by admiring business leaders.  Sears became a symbol of America's burgeoning economic strength.

As consumers tastes changed, Sears altered its business model launching its first retail stores in the 1920's.  By 1931, Sears stores surpassed the cherished catalog in sales and revenue.  Sears introduced its own brands, including Craftsman, DieHard and Kenmore and began selling Allstate insurance.

These were the glory days when Sears topped $1 billion in sales in 1945, which equates to $14 billion in today's dollars.  The company even debuted a mail-order automobile in 1952 manufactured by the Kaiser-Frazer Corporation.  It was named the Allstate.  A year later lagging sales caused its death.

By 1969, Sears claimed the title as the largest retailer in the world.  To crown its achievement, the innovative company began construction on the world's tallest skyscraper, the 110-story Sears Tower, in Chicago.  It was completed four years later, dominating the Windy City's skyline.

Like the soaring corporate building, Sears was rocketing into the retailing stratosphere.  However, its meteoric rise in the world of retail became a giant bullseye for a teeming gaggle of competitors eager to enter the lucrative sector.  Sears' leaders ignored the threat and embarked on a buying binge. 

In the 1980's, Sears expanded into everything from stocks, real estate, credit cards to a pre-Web portal known as Prodigy.  During this stage, the company lost focus on its core retailing business as an upstart competitor Walmart began to syphon customers with lower prices.

The downward spiral was officially recognized in 1991 when Walmart supplanted Sears as the nation's top selling retailer.  The final chapter was written on October 15 when Sears Holdings Corporation filed for bankruptcy.  The firm listed $6.9 billion in assets and $11.3 billion in liabilities.

Sears downfall is a cautionary tale for today's Herculean companies.  No business is too big to fail. Sears reacted too slowly to competition, lost touch with its loyal customer base, expanded into businesses far afield from its core strength and failed to invest in its retail stores and product lines.

I admit, like many former Sears customers, I haven't peeked in one of its retail stores in decades.  However, I still mourn its passing.  Sears was part of my childhood and adulthood.  Now that its gone, all that remains are cherished memories of trusted products that made our family's life better.

Rest in peace old friend.   

Monday, October 15, 2018

Dogs Have A Nose For Detecting Cancer

Cancer researchers are finally going to the dogs.  After decades of anecdotal evidence, studies now confirm that canines' keen sense of smell can detect cancer in humans. The challenge for scientists is to figure out how to harness dogs' ability to sniff out cancer to detect the disease in its earliest stages.

Over decades, many stories emerged about dogs discovering cancer in their owners.  Scientists mostly dismissed the accounts because there was no research to validate the episodes.  However, a growing number of studies have verified that trained dogs can indeed spot many types of cancer.

That finding doesn't surprise dog owners with first-hand experience with the phenomenon.  For instance, a San Antonio woman noticed her golden retriever began drooping his head in her lap.  He repeated this every day.  The women went for a check up and was diagnosed with kidney cancer.

A Rochester, Minnesota, woman was studying for a university test when her golden retriever-St. Bernard mix-breed began nosing at her left side.  The dog became agitated.  When the woman wiped away the dog's slobber, she felt a lump.  She was later diagnosed with breast cancer.

A Hollywood actress reported a similar experience with her German Shepherd.  She discovered that she had breast cancer too.  So what enables a dog to be able to sense the disease?  The answer is dog gone simple.  Canines have a nose for it.

Dogs have about 300 million odor receptors, compared to about six million for humans.  They also are equipped with a second smelling apparatus, the vomeronasal organ.  It has sensors near the back of the nasal cavity that detect certain chemical substances.  But dogs have another advantage.

The section of the dog's brain devoted to analyzing smells is 40 times larger than a human's brain capacity.  By some estimates, scientists claim that the dog's sense of smell may by 10,000 to 100,000 times more sensitive than we lowly human beings.

Law enforcement officers may have been the first to employ dogs to sniff out illegal paraphernalia.  They trained canines to find hidden drugs and contraband using their sense of smell. Dogs have been deployed by security and the military from airports to war zones to detect concealed bombs.

A few years ago scientists began investigating another application: using dogs to detect cancer in humans. Oncologists generally agree that cancer tumors emit unique odors, which cannot be recognized by humans or even the latest detection technology.  Could dogs smell cancer?

That question triggered a series of studies in the United States and abroad.  Among the most exciting was an Italian study which showed that two German Shepherds analyzing urine samples from nearly 900 patients correctly identified cancerous specimens with almost 100 percent accuracy.

The findings generated headlines but also skepticism among some scientists, who can be stubbornly resistant to new ideas.  They needed more convincing.  Veterinarians came to the rescue.  The Penn Vet Working Dog Center the University of Pennsylvania demonstrated the power of dog's nose.

Dogs at the center were trained using what they refer to as a "scent wheel"--a round table hung with bread-loaf sized, perforated steel boxes around the perimeter.  The boxes are stuffed with odor samples.  A few boxes include cancerous urine, tissue and blood samples.

If the dog smells cancer, it sits in front of the box.  As part of the training, researchers put decoy boxes with blood samples that are noncancerous.  After intensive training, the dogs learn to spot cancer with surprising accuracy.  The demonstration convinced even some skeptics.

Other trials have quantified that dogs can be trained to sniff urine, blood and even biological samples to detect a range of cancers, including bladder, breast, colorectal, lung, ovarian, prostate and skin.  Dogs can't identify the particular cancer, but do smell the presence of the disease.

Scientists are warming to the idea of training dogs to sniff cancer screening samples.  However, the humans in the white lab coats consider it a logistical nightmare to train thousands of dogs.  But what if a machine that could mimic a dog's sense of smell?  There must be an app for that, right?

The Monell Chemical Senses Center, a nonprofit that collaborates with the University of Pennsylvania, has begun to tackle the issue of designing a computer chip with enough capacity to match the canine's olfactory ability.  Scientists admit it it may be an impossible feat.

However, there are devices (i.e. electronic noses) that are already used in breath tests administered by law enforcement officers.  Other devices have been engineered to detect one particular smell.  But to be effective, the new technology must be able to distinguish hundreds of different smells.

In the future dogs, perhaps will work along side instrument-based cancer detectors. This approach may yield earlier detection for some cancers.   If it does, dogs will no longer be just a human's best friend.  Canines could be a humanity's best chance for surviving cancer.

Monday, October 8, 2018

Born To Be The King: New Rules For America

Envision a dystopian America.  The Constitution has been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court.  Congress has abolished the government.  Angry mobs roam the streets. In desperation, America returns to its colonial roots and elects to be ruled by a king once again.

Your writer is retired, has plenty of free time, so I am anointed The King. Why me, you ask? I have a regal surname.  My ancestors migrated from France.  Roi was the original spelling of the family surname.  The word means "king" in French.  That settles the issue of legitimacy.  Get over it.

With my coronation looming, I am outfitted with a jeweled crown and purple silk robes flecked with 14K gold and ascend to my throne in Bald Knob, Arkansas.  After entertaining my fawning court with tales of my golfing prowess, I turn to serious royal business.

My subjects are anxious to know what I consider the priorities for America, the greatest nation on Earth. I consult my astrologist and a couple of former Enron executives.  I scale a mountain seeking solace and wisdom, sitting alone gazing at the stars and watching funny cat videos on my iPhone.

After forty days, I return to my anxious Earthly subjects and issue the following decrees that will greatly remake America:

1.  Tea Spoons Are Required In Every Restaurant.  Too many eating establishments serve ice tea with a plastic straw.  No tea spoon to stir in the artificial sweetener.  A straw is no substitute for a thin, long spoon.  Stirring with a fork or knife is gauche.  Where have all the tea spoons gone?  Why is there a shortage in restaurants?  A special prosecutor will be appointed to find the answers.

2.  No Subject Is Allowed To Use the Phrase 'No Problem.' Your King has grown weary of hearing those two words.  Compliment a restaurant waiter for the service and he will answer: "No problem."  Tell a dental hygienist your appreciate the cleaning and she likely will say: "No problem."  This is a problem.  The correct answer is "THANK YOU." When did "No Problem" enter the lexicon as a substitute for a simple "Thank you?" Getting rid of 'No Problem" will be no problem for your King.

3. All Men's Slacks Must Be Made With Elastic Waistbands.   Nothing chafes your King more than having to pay a tailor to let out his slacks after every meal of a burger, fries and a milkshake.  Then after a couple weeks of diet and exercise, the pants need to be taken up.  This back-and-forth fluctuation in waist size costs thousands of dollars each year.  Elastic waistbands are as American as bottled water or tofu.  No pants can be sold without elastic waistbands. It's a weighty decision

4. No Plastic Tops Will be Permitted on Pharmacy Prescription Bottles:   After a certain number of birthdays, many of my loyal subjects complain they can no longer open their medication bottles.  The damn caps are senior proof.  You need a pair of pliers and a blowtorch to remove the plastic top so you can gulp your medication.  Pharmacies will now be required to give seniors pill bottles with no tops.  No problem, right? Thank you.

5. Barbecue Will Be Added To the Food Guide Pyramid.  The Department of Agriculture erred by not including barbecued meat as essential to a healthy diet. Because of the agency's oversight, many people are made to suffer unnecessary guilt when consuming heaps of barbecued ribs and beef brisket.  The new Food Guide Pyramid will suggest every individual requires at least two servings of barbecue each day. By the way, this explains why men need elastic waistbands.

6. All Cars Must Be Equipped With Texting Sensors.  Every state in the union has laws that make texting and driving a violation.  Problem is no one enforces it.  Millions of drivers can been seen every day with their wireless device propped on the steering wheel, both thumbs tapping the screen.  This dangerous situation requires stern measures.  This edict will require car manufacturers to retrofit their vehicles with sensors that trigger an explosion if the driver is texting. The blast will blow off the driver's thumbs but he or she will be otherwise unharmed. This is a thumbs up winner.

7.  No Person Will Be Allowed To Hold Up The Line At Any Public Place.  This order applies to grocery stores, banks, the post office, Department of Motor Vehicles and retail stores.  My subjects waste too much time standing in line when they could be home texting or eating barbecue.  Persons who knowingly hold up a line of fellow citizens while they fish for grocery coupons or a credit card, ask the postmaster for a single stamp or return clothes to the rack after the cashier rings up the sale will be guillotined.  I will not put my neck on the line for those who ignore this edict.

8. Bradley Cooper Movies Will Be Outlawed.  Face it, actor Bradley Cooper is a man-hunk.  He takes off his shirt in a lot of movies to show off his chiseled physique.  It intimidates your king and makes his queen's legs quiver. Conversely when the king strips off his shirt, the queen giggles.  Removing the actor's image will make men, including The King, feel better about their lumpy bodies.

Clearly, being king is no laughing matter.  There are life-or-death issues that require royal solutions.  Now, if someone could just find my crown. Shockingly, I  misplaced it in one of the 50 rooms in my palace.   Surely, a humble subject can develop an app to locate it.  Let's hope she has both thumbs.