This presidential election is unprecedented. One candidate has mostly campaigned from his basement, appearing publicly as often as a ground hog. The incumbent has crisscrossed America in the midst of a pandemic. More Americans are voting by mail than ever before. And vote tabulations may take months.
Talk about crazy. The Coronavirus outbreak turned political conventions into virtual events robbing the parties of must-see television. The presidential debates were chaotic, raising the question if they will become a relic of the past. A mask evolved into the symbol of a party. Forget donkeys and elephants.
Not since the 1918 midterm election have Americans trooped to the polls during an epidemic. Despite the Spanish Flu that resulted in the deaths of millions worldwide, voters ignored the perils of the contagion and showed up in person to cast their ballots. Patriotic duty was a higher calling in those times.
The U.S. Election Project, run by Professor Michael McDonald at the University of Florida, estimates more than 93.1 million Americans voted by November 1. About 34 million voters braved long lines to tap the screens of electronic machines. More than 59 million mail-in ballots have been returned.
The data suggests a historic turnout of voters in this presidential election. Based on the Election Project's projections total turnout may exceed 150 million, compared to 138 million in 2016. If that happens, it will mean 62% of eligible voters will submit ballots. In 2016, 58.7% of registered voters cast ballots.
However, those lofty estimates are based on past voting behavior when turnout on election day is usually robust. That may not be the case this election. No one knows if the convenience of mail-in voting will alter the annual election day stampede to the polls. November 3 could prove to be a historic anomaly.
There is partisan debate over which candidate benefits most from a large turnout. A Gallup Poll conducted in July reported 32% of voters identified as Democrats, while 26% were Republican. However, when you include those who lean toward one party or the other, Democrats have a 21% margin.
Polls, usually closely watched in presidential elections, have lost much of their cache after their research was thoroughly discredited in the wake of President Trump's thumping of Hillary Clinton. Pollsters had Clinton winning by a double-digit margin. Both campaigns are gulping grains of salt with the polls.
Even a few pollsters are proclaiming that if their data is wrong again the industry will suffer a black-eye that will leave permanent damage to their credibility. Polls have been politicized just like everything else in the country, which accounts for the large dose of public skepticism.
According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Democrat Joe Biden should be polishing up his acceptance speech right now. The polls as of November 1 have the former veep clinging to a seven percentage point lead. However, Biden's lead has slipped from the 10.3% point edge on October 11.
In the battleground states, the two candidates are running neck-and-neck. Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan are rated toss ups in the polls with neither candidate holding a solid lead. In the last election, Mr. Trump picked off a few states that had been Democrat strongholds.
Especially in tight races, the votes of African-Americans and Hispanics likely will tilt the outcome. There are worrisome signs for Democrats. Mr. Trump captured 8% of the black vote and 29% of Hispanics in 2016, which was enough to beat Ms. Clinton by razor-thin margins in Rust Belt states.
An Emerson College poll shows Mr. Trump increasing his margin with both key groups. The latest figures have 19% of African-Americans voting for the incumbent and 41% of Hispanics. If those percentages hold on election day, it will make Mr. Biden's ascension to the Oval Office more difficult.
The turnout among voters 18-29 will be closely watched too. Former President Obama racked up solid majorities in this demographic which voted in record numbers. However, turnout collapsed in the Trump-Clinton race. The question lingers if the 77-year old Biden can energize turnout among young people.
Perhaps, the biggest question of 2020 is this one: Will high turnout result in the over representation of older, white voters relative to their share of the population? This group provided Mr. Trump with an edge in the 2016 election. But defections among this group could be the Achilles Heel for his campaign.
One miscalculation by Democrats may turn out to be fatal. The Biden-Harris camp has turned the election into a a referendum on Mr. Trump's handling of the Coronavirus. According to Gallup, the top issue with 90% of voters is the economy. The virus ranks fifth, behind terrorism, healthcare and crime.
Mr. Trump received a pre-election bump with third quarter data showing a 33% rise in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for the country's economic growth. The surge means that the American economy has clawed back most of its pandemic losses, sitting now at 3.5% below the year-end for 2019.
Polls do not tell you who will actually vote. All that matters in every presidential election is which candidate is most effective in turning out their respective political bases. In every election, there are turnout surprises and this one is guaranteed to be no different.
However, headed into election day Pew Research Center's latest survey of registered voters shows an 11-percentage point "enthusiasm" gap between the two candidates. Of those supporting Biden, 57% are "strong" backers. Mr. Trump fares better with 68% of his likely voters expressing "strong" support.
If media still matters, then Biden should get a boost from the fawning news coverage his campaign has been accorded. Evening newscasts on ABC, NBC and CBS are significantly more negative toward President Trump, according to The Media Research Center (MRC).
The research group analyzed every episode of the three networks evening news from July 29 through October 20 and found 91% of Mr. Trump's coverage was negative. Meanwhile, Biden had a 66% positive score. Since Inauguration Day in 2017, MRC noted 90% of the Trump coverage has been negative.
When the voting tabulation begins November 3, expect agonizingly slow reporting of results in many states. Likely, more than a few states will be understaffed in verifying signatures on mail-in ballots. Three states are allowing mail-in ballot counting to continue past election day, further impeding timely results.
Both campaigns have assembled armies of lawyers and poll watchers to scour the nation sniffing for signs of voter suppression, ballot harvesting and mail-in ballot rejections. Both sides already have been tussling in courts over mail-in voting. Presume a wave of court challenges and recounts after November 3.
In the end, this campaign may not be decided by the voters. It may come down to the candidate with the best legal team. This bizarre election will likely lurch into the Twilight Zone. The winner may not be known for weeks or months. What else would you expect in 2020?
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