A decade ago, a spunky startup company named Tesla unveiled the first all electric automobile. Despite the media hoopla, major car manufacturers sniffed in skepticism. Now virtually every major auto maker has debuted its own electric car. Despite the array of choices, consumers are energetically unimpressed.
For all the media electricity surrounding the industry, gasoline powered light trucks remain the top selling model in the U.S. with sales of 12.2 million units in 2019. By comparison, consumers purchased 2.1 million electric powered cars the same year. Forecasts are for a modest uptick to 2.3 million this year.
Pioneering Tesla is far and away the consumer choice for electric cars. The California-based firm racked up sales of 381,190 vehicles in 2019. Nissan's electric car, Leaf, was a distant second with 130,000 units. Tesla's sales last year eclipsed the entire U.S. electric auto market of 361,000 cars in 2018.
Electric boosters point out that today's market is quadruple the 2015 U.S. sales. Since 2012, the average growth rate of electrics is 25% per annum. There are an estimated 1.1 million electric cars purring along on streets and highways in America.
Worldwide, Global EV Outlook estimates that sales in the first seven months of this year topped 2.1 million plug-in electric units. There are about 7.2 million electric cars operating around the globe. However, it represents about 1% of the total fleet of an estimated 1.4 billion vehicles on the planet.
China has the largest number of electric vehicles in operation: 2.3 million. However, Norway lays claim to the title of Electric Champion. Nearly eight-out-of-every-ten (79%) of vehicles sold in October in this European country was electric. In total, about 60% of autos driven in Norway are electric.
The Norwegian government offers generous sale incentives, including eliminating taxes and road fees along with discounts for parking and tolls. Incentives are driving the American market too. California, home to 46% of the nation's electric vehicles, shells out sales rebates, subsidies and other perks.
Electric supporters bemoan the obstacles to charging up sales: restricted supply, limited geographic availability, lack of consumer knowledge as well as perennial issues of cost, range and charging times. They insist without these barriers, gasoline-powered cars would become extinct.
Tesla, the global electric market leader with a 17% share, has a unfortunate history of missing production goals, which limits availability. The issue of cost, however, is still a factor as new gasoline car prices average $38,000, while the average cost of an electric vehicle is $55,000, according to Car and Driver.
But averages can be misleading. A long-range Tesla Model S retails for $81,190, while its top brand scales upward of $100,000. Tesla has introduced a smaller car, the Model 3, but the price tag is $50,190 for the long-range battery. Interested in an SUV? The Audi E-Tron carries a $75,000 sticker price.
That is a tough sell when the median household income income in the U.S. is $64,000.
One positive, despite the price tag, is the range of electric cars is expanding. Tesla's newest long range battery powers its car for 322 miles, Nissan's long-range Leaf has a range of 226 miles, while the plug-in electric Hyundai can travel 258 miles on a single charge.
A more pressing issue is the lack of charging stations in the country. Unlike gasoline stations, it can be difficult to find an electric charger unit. Statista estimates there are about 13,093 charging outlets at grocery and retail stores, and 20,000 stand alone stations. China has 400,000 charging stations.
Home charging equipment is not inexpensive. The average cost nationwide to install an electric vehicle charger at home is $1,200, but it may be as much as $4,500, depending on your auto's battery range. An electrician is normally required to install a 240-outlet, charger and wall-mounted system.
For most electric models, fully recharging an average lithium-ion battery will cost $9 in electricity. Even with today's low gasoline prices, electrics are still cheaper to operate. Industry figures estimate a plug-in electric will cost about $421 annually, compared to $l,500 for a standard gasoline automobile.
Electric cars are up to three times as efficient as their gasoline-powered cousins. The difference in performance can be attributed by the fact that electric motors are 90% more efficient at converting energy into motion. And, of course, electric cars run without creating CO2 carbon dioxide emissions.
Achieving the world mantra of "net zero carbon emission by 2050" argues for embracing electric vehicles to save the planet. But there are some "dirty" secrets about producing clean running electric cars. Hardly any attention has been paid to critical mineral commodities relied on to manufacture lithium-ion batteries.
Cobalt, graphite, lithium and manganese are the raw materials that are used to build the batteries. These elements are concentrated in a small number of Third World countries where environmental and labor regulations are lax or nonexistent, according to a U.N. report. Many of the mines employ child labor.
Mining for these minerals creates a trail of pollution from the source as well as the processing upstream. A United Kingdom study estimated that acquiring the raw materials to fuel the next generation batteries would require doubling the annual production in 2018.
When a new EV appears in a Tesla dealership, it already has produced 30,000 pounds of carbon-dioxide emission during manufacturing. The equivalent amounts for manufacturing a conventional gasoline powered automobile is 14,000 pounds, Forbes magazine reported this year.
There is also the issue of generating electricity to recharge the EV batteries. Assuming a fleet of 261 million electric vehicles in the U.S., it would trigger a 29% increase in power generation by the nation's grid and spark a 44% hike in installed electricity capacity at a price tag estimated at $1.4 trillion.
Most consumers are blind to these consequences and environmentalists are loathe to come clean. Wider adoption of electric cars biggest hurdle, however, may be convincing consumers to part with their money for a car that does not fit their needs.
In case anyone hasn't noticed, Americans are taller, larger and their appetite for SUV's and trucks is nearly insatiable. Buyers are looking for extra room, more horsepower, fuel efficiency and lots of gadgets that make their driving experience safer. Even with hefty subsidies, consumers prefer space and power.
Small electric vehicles are a mismatch for today's auto consumer. Tesla and the other auto manufacturers need to reassess, redesign and reengineer a new generation of electric vehicles that hit the sweet spot with buyers at a price they can afford. Until then, electrics will be stuck in sales purgatory.
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