A plan to legalize an estimated 11 million undocumented immigrants living in the country is being hammered out by House Democrats. Nothing in the proposal addresses an accurate count of illegals in the U.S. or the inequity of the treatment for legal immigrants who wait years for citizenship.
The last time America paved the way for amnesty for immigrants living illegally in the country was 1986. The Immigration Reform and Control Act provided citizenship for three million non-citizens and made it illegal to hire undocumented immigrants while increasing funding for tightened border control.
Although the comprehensive details of the House bill are unknown, preliminary signs indicate the plan would provide illegal immigrants a five-year temporary citizenship status, after which they would be eligible to apply for a three-year green card and then citizenship following that period.
When the topic of amnesty is raised, those who support the Biden plan virtually always cite the generally accepted figure of 11 million undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S. However, there is no official government data on how many non-citizens are residing in the country at this moment.
The 11 million figure has its origins in studies done by the non-partisan Pew Research Center as early as 2005. In 2014, Pew raised the figure to 11.1 million, then lowered it to 10.5 million in its 2017 study. Estimates are based on modeling data and Census Bureau studies. These are not facts but guesses.
Pew's figures are extrapolated from the Census Bureau's annual American Community survey, a method used for at least three decades by most demographers. Assuming the estimate is accurate, granting citizenship to 11 million individuals is the equivalent of adding a state the size of Georgia.
There are recent studies that cast doubt on the 11 million number. In fact, research based on new modeling techniques indicate the 11 million number is a gross underestimate. The number matters because these undocumented immigrants would be eligible for federal and other benefits.
Is the 11 million figure accurate?
The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), a non-partisan, public interest group, estimated there are approximately 14.3 million illegal immigrant residing in America. Their estimate, using more sophisticated modeling than Pew Research, was published in 2019.
In 2018, the Migration Policy Institute released a study that found there were 19 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. Nearly one-half of all undocumented immigrants live in three states (listed with percentage of nation's total): California, 24%; Texas, 16%; and New York, 8%.
A Yale School of Management study in 2018, employing yet another methodology, suggests the actual figure for the undocumented immigrant population may be more than 22 million. The Yale researchers used mathematical modeling on a wide range of demographic and immigration data.
Even employing parameters aimed at producing an extremely conservative measurement, the Yale study placed the low end estimate of illegal immigrants at 16.7 million. After running 1 million simulations of the model, the 95% probability range is 16-to-29 million with 22.1 million the mean.
A Bear Stearns report issued in 2005 estimated there were 20 million illegal immigrants residing in the country, roughly the population of New York state. Moreover, the analysts asserted between 12 and 15 million jobs in the country were held by illegal immigrants, representing 8% of the workforce.
Bottom line: the 11 million number is most likely off by millions. For those who support amnesty, it improves chances of public support for their position to deliberately downplay the figure as well as the costs of adding millions to the citizenship rolls.
Whatever the accurate data, it is well to remember that those who receive amnesty could then sponsor the lawful immigration of family members who still live abroad. According to federal records, each immigrant, on average, sponsors three-to-four additional family members for green cards.
A green card means the individual obtains permanent residence permission allowing the person to live and work in the U.S. The immigrant still must go through the legal process to become a citizen.
If you believe the number is 22 million that theoretically means legalization could potentially open the door for 66-to-88 million immigrants. Of course, the U.S. establishes annual limits on immigration. However, the Biden plan apparently includes increasing the ceiling to allow more immigration.
In the debate over immigration, reformers point to an Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy estimate that illegal immigrants contribute $11.74 billion to state and local economies. However, at least 26 states currently pay these immigrants benefits ranging from food assistance to healthcare.
In Arizona, it adds up to about $1.6 billion annually in benefits. California and New York, two of the countries largest states, offer illegal immigrants healthcare access, food assistance and cash benefits. Providing citizenship to millions of undocumented immigrants will hike federal and state benefit costs.
Undocumented immigrants, including 387,642 so-called DACA dreamers, are currently ineligible to receive most federal public benefits.
Legal Immigration Works, So How Do You Justify Citizenship For Illegals?
In the rush for amnesty, the media owes it to Americans to inform them our country has more legal immigrants than any country on Earth: 44.9 million. That is the largest number of immigrants living in America since census record-keeping began. Since 1965, the number of immigrants has quadrupled.
The next closest country is Germany with 12 million immigrants. We are anything but a xenophobic nation.
Those 44.9 million legal immigrants waited an average of one to one-and-half years before becoming naturalized citizens. The entire process, from gaining permission to enter the country to acquiring citizenship, can take from three to five years, according to government records.
The 16-to-22 million undocumented immigrants did not enter the country legally, a fact the media glosses over in its reporting about the Biden plan. In effect, they will gain citizenship without the hardships and costs endured by those who played by the rules and immigrated legally to the U.S.
Another media tactic is to demagogue the illegal immigrant issue by raising the specter mass deportation. Legacy media conjures up images of millions of immigrants being frog-marched and sardined into buses and planes to be swiftly deported under the cover of darkness.
No one is proposing this, but it paints amnesty critics as heartless Neanderthals, a favorite Biden term.
Legalizing current undocumented immigrants will not staunch the flow of illegals across the U.S.-Mexico border. In 2018, Customs and Border Protection apprehended 369,579 people illegally crossing into the U.S. By 2019, the number had spiraled to 851,509. It plummeted to 458,088 in 2020.
Last year the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement bureau made 103,603 arrests of illegal immigrants. Of those arrested, nine-in-ten had criminal convictions on their record. Those immigrants had a total of more than 374,000 convictions and charges, an average of four per person.
Immigration officials deported 185,000 migrants attempting to cross into the country illegally in 2020. By comparison, during President Obama's eight-year tenure 1.5 million undocumented immigrants were deported, including a record 409,000 in 2012.
Amnesty will encourage, not discourage, more illegal crossing. Thousands of Central Americana, including residents of El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, have trekked through Mexico to reach the U.S. in the last five years.
Right now there are thousands more illegal immigrants clustered on the Mexico-U.S. border, wearing campaign-style tee shirts reading: "Biden: Please Let Us In!" As soon as Mr. Biden nodded agreement to halt border-wall construction, illegal immigrants began flocking through the unfinished areas.
The escalating influx, has spurred Mr. Biden to dispatch senior administration members to the border to report back on the situation. Leaked Health and Human Services documents show Customs and Border Protection is referring an average of 321 illegal immigrant children every day.
The promise of amnesty is exacerbating the problem at the border forcing law enforcement in Arizona and Texas to deal with this federal problem. Amnesty acts as a magnet to lure increasing numbers of immigrants willing to breech the border to skulk into the U.S.
Before Congress approves any amnesty plan, it should obtain an accurate count of undocumented immigrants in the country. The federal budget agency also should be required to provide an estimate on the expected costs to states and American taxpayers of adding 16-to-22 million new citizens.
Republicans must insist the new law contain funding to continue to harden the U.S.-Mexico border to shut off the flow of illegals into our country. If that isn't done, in another decade to two, the country will be considering yet another amnesty plan for more than 40 million undocumented immigrants.
Lawmakers need all the facts before they take a vote on the Biden plan. Those who argue it is too difficult to get the data are making an excuse to avoid finding the truth. Lack of transparency breaks faith with all Americans, especially those 44.9 million immigrants who entered the country legally.
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