GOP Overconfidence Spells Trouble in Midterms

Giddy Republicans are popping the champagne corks in celebration of a Red Wave in the midterm elections.  That over exuberance may prove their undoing in November.  While the GOP is in party mode, Democrats are building a war chest and sharpening their political rhetoric to pull an upset.

For months, President Biden's underwater poll numbers fed GOP confidence.  Scorching inflation, record gas prices, a porous border, and education issues foreshadowed a Red avalanche.  Early national polls showed voters preferred GOP control of the House and Senate. Happy times are here again. 

Republican also have history on their side.  The president's party usually loses 30 House seats in the midterms.  Democrats currently hold a thin majority in the House, 220-211.  If history repeats, the GOP would begin 2023 with a solid 241-180 majority.  But history can be fickle.  

Currently, the Senate is deadlocked 50-50, although Vice President Kamala Harris casts the deciding vote in the event of ties. There are 34 Senate seats up for grabs this year.  However, Senate control will likely hinge on closely contested races in 10 key states, where turnout will tilt the outcome. 

The latest Monmouth University Policy Institute poll offers a clear picture of voters issues. Inflation and gas prices are the chief concerns.  More than four in ten Americans told pollsters they are struggling financially.  Despite the Democrat drum beating, abortion is a priority for just 5% of voters. 

Beware: Some polls show abortion as a priority issue but those are not open-ended, where respondents select their own priorities. Democrat-sponsored research limits the choices for respondents, forcing survey participants to select from a narrow list of issues, which includes abortion.  

Irregardless,  Democrats insist the emotionally charged issue will motivate its voters to turnout in the midterms.  To up the ante, Democrats are disingenuously claiming the Supreme Court ruling on abortion also imperils gay marriage, racially mixed marriages and LGBTQ protections.

Democrats are also banking on smearing Republicans as extremists in the January 6 hearings.  Although former President Trump is the target, the House committee is crafting a narrative that many GOP House and Senate members were tangentially involved in the Capitol riots. Thus Republicans are fanatics.

As an extension of this strategy, Democrat fund raising committees are supporting Trump-endorsed GOP candidates in the primaries in hopes they will be easier to defeat in the midterms. Some Democrats are beginning to notice and are criticizing their party for being hypocritical. 

In light of the Democrat maneuvers, Republicans need to quit reading the polls and stop taking victory laps.  Elections are won in November and voters preferences can flip in a heartbeat. Instead of just regurgitating voter issues, the GOP must begin offering solutions.    

Voters want to know how Republicans will govern and what changes they will make.  This is especially important to woo independents as well as traditional Democrat voting blocs, such as Hispanics, Asians and African-Americans.  Voters are keen on a change of direction in the country.

Republicans need a clarion call that resonates with voters.  How about the American Prosperity Plan? GOP candidates for the House and Senate should rally around an action agenda that stirs voters passion. instead of just reminding voters who bad things are. Here are a few suggestions:

To deal with inflation, the GOP should vow to stop the Democrats inflationary spending.  Republicans should pledge to reject boondoggles with clever names, such as the Inflation Reduction Act. They should adopt a "no new spending" mantra and end government welfare for green industries.

Since the House controls the purse string, the GOP should argue for less spending on federal government agencies, which are expanding. Republicans should insist on across the board 5% budget  cuts at every Washington agency to reduce the federal budget.

Budget cuts would also be a way to reign agencies or in other cases reduce the size of regulatory bureaucracies.  A plan to eliminate the Department of Education, for example, would draw broad support. States have their own Departments of Education.  No need for another layer of bureauracy.

On taxes, Republicans should campaign on lowering tax rates for all Americans making less than $400,000 annually.  Such a promise would offer a stark contrast to the Democrats plans for raising personal and corporate taxes in the midst of an economic recession. 

The border issue reverberates in many key election states, such as Arizona.  Republicans should pledge to pass legislation to finish the border wall.  The suppliers and the construction materials have been paid, but President Biden halted construction.  No additional funding would be required. 

To address energy, Republicans would pledge to revive the GOP-backed Keystone XL bill that died in 2021 in the Democrat controlled House. The bill to authorize completion of the  construction on the oil pipeline, specified the project would not need a permit from the president. 

Health care costs are a factor in rising inflation.  Republicans, who had a chance to end Obamacare in 2016, should cap funding of subsidies for government health insurance, which enrich private insurers.  Another way to reduce health costs is to oppose further expansion of Medicare.

Some Democrats are no doubt shaking their heads in laughter. President Biden would veto any legislation that does not fit the Democrat agenda.  Actually, that would help Republicans draw a clear distinction between the parties on key issues for voters now and in the 2024 presidential election.

Listen Republicans.  Don't waste this opportunity by touting an investigation of President Biden and his son Hunter will be your first act.  That might fire up the base, but average Americans don't care. There will be a time to address the issue at some point.  For now, can the comments.

There will be a time for celebration.  But right now the priority is to unite GOP candidates under a broad agenda to restore American prosperity.  That's what voters want to hear.