How Democrats Turned Red Wave Into Blue Foam

This year's midterm elections shattered every historical axiom.  Dating to World War II, the incumbent president's party has loss an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats.  Losses are normally worst in times of economic distress.  Yet Democrats defied precedent, staving off deep losses.  

Never have so many experts been so wrong about an election. Republicans seemed poised to rack up big gains. Instead, voters shrugged off record inflation, a brutal stock market, rising crime and an influx of illegal immigrants. They voted Democratic in spite of their sour mood about the country's future.   

Even the political class cannot explain this conundrum.  Exit polls by the National Election Pool Survey found about three-quarters of voters rated the economy as weak and about the same number believed the country is headed in the wrong direction.  Voters, illogically, cast ballots for the party in power.  

In the aftermath, political pundits, party strategists and the news media gleefully named former President Donald Trump as the culprit. Trump, a habitual target, certainly deserves some responsibility  for the GOP's lackluster results.  But this knee-jerk analysis doesn't hold up under scrutiny.

Another popular view is the caliber of some candidates hurt the GOP. But an unbiased observer must admit there were more than a few clunkers on the Democratic Party side.  Exhibit A is John Fetterman in Pennsylvania, a stroke victim who hid from voters and reporters for most of the campaign.

No Republican wants to confront the reason for their embarrassing performance.  Democrats outsmarted, out spent and out maneuvered the GOP, managing to narrowly lose the House and hold the Senate. Here are a few insights into how the Democrats crushed the red wave.

• Democrats focused on mail-in ballot initiatives to build sizable margins, just as they did in 2020.  More than 40.7 million Americans voted either by mail or early in person. More mail-in and early ballots were cast in this election than in the 2018 midterm (36 million), despite record turnout that year. Republicans spent too much effort on turning out voters on election day.  Banking votes early is the best way to guarantee turnout. The GOP still hasn't learned that lesson, disdaining efforts to harvest mail-in ballots.
• Democrats intervened in GOP primaries, spending money on negative ads to smear candidates they deemed less extreme and therefore the toughest to beat.  The move triggered blowback within the party because it cut into funds in Democrat primary races.  But in the end, it worked. The GOP primary winners often had baggage that made them vulnerable to Democrat attacks.     
• A record $16.7 billion in campaign funds was spent in the midterms. By some estimates the Democrats outspent Republicans two-to-one in key races.  The GOP, especially in Senate races, spread the funds too thin, often depriving candidates of needed dollars.  Mitch McConnell, in particular, made funding decisions based on Senators who would back his candidacy as minority leader. Too many "out of favor" GOP candidates were starved for campaign funds that could have made a difference.
• More young people turned out to vote in the midterm election than anticipated.  Estimates are 27% of young people (18-29) cast ballots in the election.  It is the second highest youth turnout percentage in the past 30 years.  The National Election Pool Survey estimated 63% of youths voted Democratic.  Those votes swung key races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia.  Polling showed the top issues with young voters were student loan forgiveness and abortion. 
• Republican messaging was a an incoherent hodgepodge, ranging from crime to the border.  This election was about the economy stupid!  Inflation and the economy should have been the laser focus. Even when candidates talked about this issue, they offered few solutions.  Illegal immigration didn't resonate with voters outside border states.  And even in crime ridden areas, voters didn't trust Republicans to fix the issue.

Despite the appalling showing, Republicans can take some solace from a few positives that emerged. Based on CNN exit polls and the National Election Pool Survey, Republicans made inroads with suburban women.  Hispanics and African-Americans were more supportive of Republicans than in past elections. The GOP garnered 5 million votes more than Democrats in the election. Those are encouraging signs. 

Republicans had more advantages this election than they may ever have again. But still lost. Republicans have no one to blame but party leadership in the House, Senate and the GOP National 

Committee.  If the GOP insists on following the same script, they will be a permanent minority.