Affordability may be top of the mind with midterm voters, but politicians are having no such problem. Gobs of cash are flowing from deep pocketed donors to House and Senate candidates. With less than a month until Election Day, the contribution arms race is likely to shatter all records.
While voter enthusiasm may be flagging, donors are not facing a passion deficit. More than $1.94 billion in campaign funds has been spent on Congressional races, according to USA Facts, which tracks federal contributions over two-years cycles for political races.
The spending equals about 72.8% of the campaign funds raised this election cycle, which means there's still a gusher about to inundate the airwaves. And the money is still flooding in. By its own estimates, USA Facts projects the total campaign costs may eclipse the 2024 general election.
That bloated sum--$1.94 billion--represents only money spent by the candidates' campaigns. It does not include funds doled out by Political Action Committees (PACS) on behalf of candidates.
Two years ago, presidential and Congressional races rang up a total price tag, including PAC expenditures, of $11.2 billion. The midterms are on pace to hit $11.6 billion before the last ballot is cast, reports AdImpact, which tracks total political campaign spending.
If money is the mother's milk of politics, then this year's midterms are a collective of dairy farms.
The current title for biggest midterm spender goes to Democrat James Talarico, who has lathered on $47.012 million to sharpen his image in a bid to beat Republican Ken Paxton for the Senate in Texas. Paxton has spent $19 million. Neither figure includes spending by political action committees.
The money bag moniker in the House belongs to David Trone, a Maryland Democrat who has doled out $24.7 million. Fellow Democrat House member Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez from New York has run up a tab of $20.38 million. In the last House race, 192,555 New Yorkers voted in her district.
Other candidates raking in the dough and spending as fast as they can are: Democrats Jon Ossof (Georgia), $39.6 million; Raja Krishnamoorthi (Illinois), $31.4 million; Sherrod Brown (Ohio), $22.3 million; Joshua Weil (Florida), $15.9 million; and Hakeem Jeffries (New York), $14.85 million.
The lone Republican making the Top Ten in the money race is Lindsey Graham's sister Darline Graham Nordone in South Carolina: $20.07 million. She was appointed to fill Lindsey's Senate seat after his death and is now running for a full six-year term.
Will all those dollar signs add up to victory for those with bulging campaign coffers?
Not if you believe the polling data. More voters than ever tell pollsters they dislike both Republican and Democrat parties than in any recent election. There is deep disaffection with politicians as well as government. A Wall Street Journal poll found 21% of all voters want to throw out both parties.
More than 40% of those voters who reject both parties claim they remain undecided about which party's candidate will end up on their ballot. That means Republicans and Democrats will be vying for support among a key group that distrusts them both.
A poll by Pew Research supported the findings of the Journal. Half of Americans view both political parties as "too extreme." Only 42% of Americans say Democrats govern "ethically and honestly," while just 39% have the same dim view of Republicans. Americans want to throw out the bums.
Many pundits point to sagging approval ratings for President Trump, about 30% according to Pew, as an anchor for Republican candidates. However, the titular leader pf the Democrat Party, Senator Chuck Schumer, is more unpopular--polling only 27% approval in an average of national polls.
If you ask voters, there are no knights in shining armor jousting in the current political arena.
Disenchantment with politics explains why the airwaves are filled with ads that touch on corruption, insider stock trading or increases in wealth for entrenched politicians. More than 340 different ads since September 1 have tackled those subjects, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.
Frustration with both political parties makes it nearly impossible to predict winner. (This writer puts no faith in polls, based on lousy past performance.) Safe Republican or Democrat seats are now up for grabs. It's a topsy turvy environment where the odds flip daily.
All 435 House members are up for election. Ballotpedia, a non-partisan, not-for-profit that covers elections, has identified 46 districts that are toss ups. That is just 12% of the districts. On the Senate side, 35 seats are up for grabs. There are no clear favorites in only 12.
However, if history is any guide, then the Republicans will suffer the fate of past administrations. In 18 of the past 20 midterm elections since World War II, the president's party has lost House seats. The average is 26 seats. Thirteen times the party in power lost both the House and Senate.
The exceptions were in 1998 when Democrats gained four House seats during President Clinton's second term and in 2002 under President George W. Bush when Republicans picked up eight members in the midterms. So it wouldn't be unprecedented for President Trump to hold the House.
However, the odds favor Democrats to at least pick up seats in the House, wresting the Speaker's gavel from the GOP. The oddsmakers are evenly divided over the Democrats chances to gain the majority in the Senate. Nail biters are likely to tip the balance in the upper chamber.
Regardless, the nation will have to wait until November 3 to find out for certain which party will control the two chambers of Congress. One outcome is certain. The election results in California will not be available for weeks after the ballots are counted in every other state..
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