Annual predictions are not for the easily offended. Skeptics scoff. Political partisans pooh-pooh. The Intelligentsia sniff: prognosis is a job for pros, not mortals. Few critics dare to tiptoe on the forecast limb. Such is the weighty yoke shouldered by those who peer into the future and divine destiny.
For those interested in your prognosticator's accuracy, look under the archive tab on the far right side of the current blog and click on 2021. Scroll to the bottom and you will find last year's Top 12 Predictions. An unbiased reckoning (mine) will find that at least nine forecasts were (mostly) correct.
Compare your columnist's record to stock market forecasters whose estimates are always rosy and wrong half the time. Or to economists who regularly err but leave wiggle room, just in case their conjecture veers off course. Or political pollsters and pundits whose dismal record speaks for itself.
What about the politicians and health officials who boldly predicted Americans could resume their normal lives in 2021? How did that work out? And don't get me started on meteorologists. Most weather forecasters cannot accurately predict the weather beyond the next 30 minutes.
Fact is foreseeing the future is an imprecise science that requires a heaping spoonful of luck and a pinch of skill. That explains why prognosticators often issue updates throughout the year, praying no one will remember their original premonition. Your fearless seer gets one shot. And this is it.
Here are the Top 12 Predictions for next year.
1. A red wave swamps Democrats in the mid-terms as the GOP picks up 69 seats in the House and two in the Senate, earning majorities in both halls of Congress. After the thunderous defeat, Democrats convince President Biden to announce he will not run for president in 2024.
2. Inflation worsens in the first quarter because price increases have been baked into the costs of goods due to rising producer expenses. Wages continue to tick up, but inflation hits 7.9% in the first quarter, wiping out real gains in income. Inflation vaults to the top issue in the mid-terms.
3. Because it waited too long to taper purchases of Treasury notes and hike interest rates, the Fed finds itself in an election year pickle. It raises interest rates twice but the Fed stalls the planned third increase as spikes in mortgage rates and credit card interest curtail consumer spending.
4. A 22% increase in stock markets since the end of last year has inflated prices for many equities, especially SPAC's which come under fierce scrutiny from the SEC after values plummet. Markets are roiled by elevated volatility, but equities rise a combined 13% in the three leading indices.
5. Blockchain, a decentralized database to generate and store records, expands beyond crypto currency applications as the technology is adopted for solutions in the energy, health care and banking industries. The open and secure system attracts record business investment.
6. The Gross Domestic Product, a measurement of economic health, continues to skid downward, ending the year with an annualized growth of 2.9%. First quarter figures signal sustained economic expansion, however, growth stalls as lockdowns cripple business recovery.
7. Real estate prices keep surging next year, escalating by 14% nationwide, a drop from the scorching hike of 19.5% in 2021. Prices is some cities jump even higher, but uncertainty in the mortgage market triggers a construction slowdown in many locations as inventory grows.
8. Omicron, the variant that provoked a nationwide panic, begins to fizzle at the end of the first quarter with few fatalities despite skyrocketing cases. The variant proves to be a blessing, conferring natural immunity on millions as the pandemic morphs into an endemic by yearend.
9. Amidst the boom in electric vehicles, China increases its monopoly--now 85%-- of rare earth elements, including many critical in the manufacturing of batteries: lithium, copper and cobalt. China embarks on a buying spree, snapping up mines in Africa, South America and Afghanistan.
10. The hybrid work from home (WFH) model gains little traction as more workers prefer to live in locations far from big city offices. With labor shortages in technology and digital industries, firms scrap the hybrid and offer WFH as a benefit to fill critical job vacancies.
11. Intensifying cyber attacks on energy, medical institutions and governments by state actors under the control of Russia and China cause so much chaos that one Western government brands the intrusions as acts of war, raising the stakes in the cyber security battle.
12. TikTok, the Chines- owned video app, comes under increasing Congressional criticism as investigations expose its algorithms flood minors with videos about sex, drugs and eating disorders. Despite the disclosures, the administration rejects calls to ban the app.
Let the second-guessing begin. Bring in on. However, the last word belongs to those whose vision withstands the test of 12 months. Print and save this column. Then compare these predictions of those of the pros at the end of 2022. The outcome may surprise you or humble your columnist.
Whatever happens, be assured another set of predictions will be issued at the end of 2022. Your blogger has learned the secret of other prognosticators: if you make enough forecasts you are bound to hit a few.
