Surreal Presidential Election Finally Ends...Maybe

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden declared himself the winner in the 2020 contest as votes were still being tallied at a snail's pace in a handful of mostly Democratic Party-controlled states.  Legal challenges by the Trump campaign are pressing forward today in the midst of the contentious election.

That's the kind of year 2020 has been.  Screwy.  Surreal. Tumultuous. Implausible. Hostile. 

Democrats and the media cabal branding the president a sore loser have inchworm memories.  In the 2000 election, Democrat Al Gore's lawyers were able hold hostage vote certification in Florida for 47 days through legal challenges.  Every candidate has a right to demand a fair and full ballot count.

Even vanquished former presidential contender Hillary Clinton warned Democrats in advance of the vote to not concede the election too early.  The media in its giddiness over the trends in tabulations anointed Biden the victor despite the fact key states had yet to certify final vote totals.  

The media and Democrats were hoping for a clear repudiation of the president.  A sweeping landslide that would shame Mr. Trump's supporters, whom the media mocks as Neanderthals.  Instead the race was tightly contested in nearly every state, except for the ones that have seemingly outlawed Republicanism.  

The latest totals for the popular vote show Biden with a 2.8% edge over the president.  Biden captured 50.61% of the ballots cast to 47.73% for Mr. Trump. As the contest inches closer to finality,  Biden's vote count stands at 75.2 million to 71 million for the president.

In 15 states, including many battleground states, the victorious candidate's margin was 9% or less.  Biden's victory was a narrow escape not a mandate as he and his media allies have contended in their post election euphoria.    

In Wisconsin, Biden won by 20,540 votes out of 3.2 million ballots.  In Arizona, Biden is currently clinging to a 17,553 vote margin.  The Democrat is up 10,196 votes in Georgia out of 4.8 million. Even Nevada, which provided the final electoral votes needed to win, was a 31,464-vote squeaker for Biden.

While vote counting agonizingly proceeds today, it appear pundits will be wrong about the turnout topping 160 million.  According to the Associated Press, 146,285,631 million votes have been tallied.  Even with more ballots dribbling in, it will be difficult to reach 155 million.

However, one election aspect is already clear.  Both Biden and the president eclipsed former president Barrack Obama's record vote total of 69.4 million. Trump managed to pull 8.02 million more votes than he did in 2016, while Biden outperformed Clinton by 9.4 million ballots.

Democrats and Republicans should be embarrassed by the unfathomable delays in vote tabulation.  Some states, such as Texas, Florida and California, handled many more ballots than Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada with timely reporting.  Why did it take so long in those states and others, such as Georgia?

Democrat apologists blame the influx of mail-in ballots that swamped election officials.  That is bogus because virtually every state had more mail-in votes than in-person ballots.  In a nation that birthed high tech, it is unconscionable to wait a week until a final vote can be certified.  We are not Nigeria.

Three states under the thumb of Democrat governors--Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin--issued orders that thwarted timely reporting of votes.  Election officials in those states were not allowed to start tabulating the mail-in ballots until election day or a few hours before.  

There were computer glitches in at least two states, Georgia and Michigan.  In Michigan, the flaw caused 6,000 votes to be incorrectly given to Biden.  After initially blaming the malfunctions on tabulation machines, both states reversed course and attributed the errors to humans.  Interesting.

The company that manufacturers the vote tabulating computers is Dominion Voting Systems, which supplied its equipment to 28 states this election.  There were no other public reports of mishaps as happened in Michigan.  But it fosters conspiracy theories about the fairness of elections.

Even if there was no chicanery involved, the snafu triggered wholesale conjecture about transparency.  The mishap fanned conspiracy flames when an enterprising reporter dug up a Washington Post story that said Dominion had donated $25,001 and $50,000 to the Clinton Foundation in 2015.

For the benefit of Democrats shaking their heads, this was verified by liberal fact-checking site Snopes. 

There were other oddities.  In Wisconsin, nearly every registered voter cast a ballot.  The Wisconsin Election Commission reported there were 3,684,726 registered voters.  The state tallied 3,296,836 votes in the presidential contest.  That's a 90% voter turnout.  No other state came close.  Hmmmm. 

This election also signaled a shift in voting patterns that will likely become the new normal.  More voters cast their ballots before election day than in any previous presidential election.  By the last count, there were 101 ballots cast in early voting, more than double the number in 2016.

Mail-in voting drew both proponents and critics for increasing turnout. Eight states sent ballots to every registered voter on its rolls. The states were California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, South Dakota and Vermont.  Most other states required voters to request a mail-in ballot.  

For all the Democrat crowing, the party performed abysmally in state legislatives races in the Sun Belt and Rust Belt, handing Republicans an advantage ahead of redistricting after the Census determines the number of Congressional seats in each state.  The defeat came despite Democrats' record fund raising.

The Democrats failed to flip a single statehouse chamber in its favor, including in the key states of Texas, North Carolina and Florida.  The GOP appears poised to bolster its number of seats in the House of Representatives and has the prospect of holding the Senate, depending on two Georgia runoffs.

The biggest losers in the 2020 election, however, were the pollsters. Most polling is now designed to suppress an opponent's turnout, inflate candidate spending or deliberately mislead the public.  How else can you explain pollsters continuing failure to accurately predict outcomes and margins?

For example, the Real Clear Politics lists of polling results from various research firms showed that Biden would win by a margin of 11-to-7 percent.  One pollster had Biden with a 12% blowout.  Polling organizations also predicted toss-up races for incumbent Senators Lindsey Graham and Susan Collins.

Both candidates won by comfortable margins, but the polling data incentivized Democrats to pour nearly $200 million into the two races in an effort to flip the Senate seats. This happens too often to be coincidental.  Polling data can no longer be trusted to be accurate or authentically researched.

In the absence of demographic voting data, it is too early to critically analyze why Biden won.  However, certainly the president's handling of the pandemic was clearly on the minds of voters.  Even those who ranked the economy their top issue were worried rising virus cases would trigger shutdowns.

That said, it cannot be disputed that visceral hatred of President Trump, not Biden's appeal, was a deciding factor.  Whether Democrats will admit it, they conspired with the media and social platforms to viciously attack Mr. Trump for four years. No president has endured such orchestrated loathing.

A campaign based on searing hatred recalls the ugliness that led to Hitler's rise in Germany.  Disagreements on policies, style and personalities are natural, but it undermines democracy when bitter acrimony decides elections. In this corrosive atmosphere, Biden has issued a plea for unity.

Americans want unity and an end to the Washington belligerence. However, name a Democrat who called for cooperation instead of resistance during the past four years?  Still waiting.  That renders Biden's words hollow, political claptrap.    

Let's pray that no matter our political choices Americans can still civilly discuss our differences. We don't banish friends or family members who disagree with us.  We don't call dissenting voters miscreants for not seeing the world as we do.  Until there is mutual respect, the nation will remain hopelessly alienated. 

Mail Ballots: Facts About Potential Fraud

Congressional lawmakers and governors in many states are striving to force voting by mail in the November presidential election.  House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has been one of the most vocal proponents calling for eliminating in person voting during the pandemic for safety reasons.

Democratic Senators Amy Klobuchar and Ron Wyden have taken up the banner in the Senate by introducing the Natural Disaster and Emergency Ballot Act of 2020, a 57-page bill designed to promote online absentee ballot requests by any voter, not just those physically unable to go to polls.

Under the legislation, states would be required to allow individuals to use downloadable and printable absentee ballots which could be returned by mail or placed in designated drop box locations.  States are prevented from placing any security restrictions, such as a notarization or a witness signature.

Republicans have raised issues over voter fraud and vote harvesting, which have been dismissed by Democrats like a cow's tail swatting flies.  Mail-in or absentee ballots are susceptible to tampering, theft and shady schemes to dupe the elderly and the poor into voting against their interests. 

Democrats like to point to the fact mail-in voting is already used in some states, including Oregon which became the first to adopt mail-in voting exclusively in 1998.  The voters of Oregon however, not politicians in Washington, made the decision in a statewide ballot initiative.

Despite protections, Oregon's mail-in voting has shown how easy it is to exploit this system.  The Secretary of State in Oregon raised alarms after it found evidence 46 violations of election laws in the 2016 presidential election.

States without mandatory mail-in balloting, have their own problems with mail-in absentee voting. Cases have been uncovered where political advocates visit the homes of people and vote the ballots for them.  Victims rarely report the coercion because the perpetrators are politically connected.

In 2018, the North Carolina Board of Elections decertified the outcome of the 9th Congressional District race after charges of absentee ballot fraud.  In a closely contested race, the GOP candidate received 61% of all mailed votes, although only 16% of Republicans requested an absentee ballot

A year earlier a Florida mayor was convicted of a felony charge of voting fraud and misdemeanor absentee voting violations.  Prosecutors alleged the mayoral candidate coerced absentee voters to cast ballots for him.  He personally solicited a absentee vote from a nonresident, prosecutors charged.

In 2016, in the 78th House District race in Missouri the incumbent won the Democratic Party primary by just 90 voters. The race was contested over a lopsided absentee vote tally for the incumbent.  A new election was ordered and the challenger won by 1,533 votes. 

Absentee ballots are the "tool of choice" for those engaging in election fraud, concluded the Florida Department of Law Enforcement after investigations of a series of voter irregularities over a decade.  Absentee and mail-in vote systems also have been plagued by yawning discrepancies.

Between 2012-2018,  the federal Election Assistance Commision found more than 28.3 million mail-in ballots went missing. The ballots amounted to nearly one in five of all absentee ballots and mail-in ballots cast in states that vote exclusively by mail: Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah and Hawaii.

The Public Interest Legal Foundation (PILF), a nonprofit headquartered in Indianapolis, compiled the data from reports provided by the Election Assistance Commission. Although there was no evidence of voter fraud, the PILF noted the sheer volume raises serious doubts about election security.

PILF found that in Texas mail-in ballots have spawned a "mini-industry" of consultants who get out the absentee votes using questionable techniques.  The poor, elderly and minority communities are the most likely be be preyed upon by these ballot harvesters, according to the PILF.

Mail-in voting has another dark side.  The voter registration rolls include 1.8 million dead people and more than 24 million voters whose registrations are either invalid or inaccurate, according to research by the Pew Center on the States.  In some states, each voter on those rolls receives a ballot.

That inherent problem is magnified by the fact the use of mail-in ballots has more than doubled from 24.9 million in 2004 to 57.2 million in 2016.  The data suggest about 40% of the votes now cast in U.S. elections are transacted by mail.  Despite the increase, there have been no new safeguards.

Proponents of mail-in voting like to cast voter fraud as a rarity that should not taint the process.  According to data compiled by The Heritage Foundation, there have been 1,200 cases of voter fraud in all forms, resulting in 1,100 criminal convictions in the last 20 years.

Supporters of mail-in voting contend that data is not sufficient evidence to reject the idea.  But mail-in fraud is not the only threat to elections. There is growing scrutiny of elections at the local level, where election judges have wide discretion in the reporting and counting of votes.

In a filing last week by the Department of Justice, the complaint alleges the Judge of Elections for Philadelphia's 39th Ward 36th Division, took cash and checks to tamper with election results.  The department contends the judge would add fraudulent votes to the totals of preferred candidates.

In one count, the DOJ alleges the defendant and others certified results for 118 ballots cast during a primary election when only 91 voters physically appeared to cast ballots. On another occasion, the defendant is charged with certifying fraudulent voting receipts after polls closed.

Election fraud is real not some urban myth.  However, under some previous administrations, voter fraud has not been a priority, resulting in the underreporting of cases or ignoring calls for investigations.  Even if it is not widespread, it should not be shrugged off.

Fortunately, there appears to be little appetite in the Republican-controlled Senate to adopt the mail-in ballot bill, but that hasn't stopped Democrats from waging a campaign to mandate mail-in voting in the presidential election.  It is part of the political doctrine, "Never let a good crisis go to waste."

Some states, such as California, have already mandated that mail-in balloting will be used.  The decision was made by the governor, not the citizens.  In Texas, the state Supreme Court has already ruled that the risk of contracting the virus does not meet the state's qualifications for voting by mail.

The battle over mail-in voting may ultimately land on the doorstep of the U.S. Supreme Court.   The Constitution grants states wide power to hold elections for the U.S. House and Senate.  However, the Congress has authority to supplement states laws with its own rules in federal elections.

In the case of presidential elections, both states and Congress are delegated authority over times, places and manner of vote. This could be the first time for the Supreme Court to weigh in on  this important issue, establishing a precedent on the power to change voting methods.

Analysis of Democrat Presidential Race

Democrats worst nightmares might be coming to fruition.  With Super Tuesday looming on March 3, frontrunner Bernie Sanders frightens the Democrat establishment because of his full-throated socialist agenda.  Now there is speculation that Democrats may be hurtling toward a brokered convention.

Neither scenario bodes well for the Democratic Party's chances to reclaim the White House.  After a disastrous start to the primary season with the Iowa caucus debacle, Democrats had to be shaking their heads wondering what else could go wrong.  The answer is Senator Sanders heading the ticket.

After winning the popular vote in both Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders vaulted into lead on the strength of a stellar ground game.  Sanders has no trouble recruiting young volunteers to staff his statewide campaign offices.  The 78-year old also draws the largest and most enthusiastic crowds.

Many Democrat voters are not spooked by Sanders' endorsement of socialism.  A 2019 Pew Research Study found nearly two-thirds (65%) of Democrats have a somewhat positive or very positive view of socialism.  Republicans and GOP leaning independents are diametrically opposed: 84% against. 

Money is usually a strong indicator of the staying power of a primary candidate.  Just released Federal Election Commission figures underscore Sanders' appeal.  He raised $107.9 million in the latest reporting period, far outdistancing his primary rivals.  Sanders is not going away.

Former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, a virtual unknown a year ago, surprised pollsters by nipping at the heels of Sanders in the first two contests.  The Buttigieg campaign has steamrolled more well known opponents and has attracted better educated, upper income voters.

However, national polls show that among African-American Democrats only one percent back his candidacy.  If those polls are accurate, it spells trouble for Mayor Pete.  He will face tough sledding in upcoming primaries in which African-Americans are a larger share of Democrat voters.

In a national presidential match, a Democrat cannot win the Oval Office without high African-American voter turnout and a sizable margin over Mr. Trump  That leaves the Democrat establishment in a quandary because Buttigieg, like Obama in 2008, is a needed fresh face.

Buttigieg is polished, articulate and media friendly.  All assets Obama enjoyed in 2008.  Buttigieg also raised $75 million in the latest quarter.  He is the darling of Hollywood and Silicon Valley.  Both have shoveled millions of dollars into the Buttigieg campaign.

Rising political star Sen. Amy Klobuchar's stock is soaring after her third place finish in New Hampshire.  She represents the moderate lane in the party race.  Her strategy of a laser focus on the first two contests paid off.  But her campaign may be derailed by lack of funds.

Among the top tier candidates, she raised the lowest amount of money, $28.7 million in the recent quarter.  That was less than Sanders, Buttigieg, Warren and Biden.  She and Buttigieg are competing for the same big donors, who prefer a progressive without the socialist baggage.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren's campaign is cratering. Although she raised $81.7 million, she has underperformed in the opening round. After the woeful New Hampshire showing, he has turned more strident.  If she drops out, the chief beneficiary will be Sanders, who shares common views.

Former Vice President Joe Biden needs to throw a Hail Mary pass.  His campaign is flagging and donors are beginning to have doubts about his chances.  Biden is pinning his hopes for a jumpstart in Nevada and South Carolina primaries.  The states appear to be friendlier territory for Biden.

However, the latest Quinnipiac Poll finds Biden's support among African-Americans is eroding in South Carolina. That does not bode well for a comeback.  Plus his campaign is haunted by disappointing defeats.  Voters often are influenced by early results when they go to the polls.

Biden entered the race with a huge advantage in name recognition and his past association with the Obama presidency.  Neither have proven enough to woo the majority of Democrat voters who are looking for a populist candidate who will shake up Washington.  He represents the status quo.

Biden also suffered collateral damage in the impeachment trial.  Democrats aimed at Mr. Trump but struck Biden, whose son Hunter's affiliation with a corrupt Ukraine gas firm received glaring attention during the trial.  The mainstream media tried a blackout of news coverage to protect Biden.

It failed because social media was ablaze with juicy conspiracy theories and catty comments about the Bidens.  Although no Democrat will ever admit it, Biden's reputation was sullied.  Clever Buttigieg defended Biden in a debate, which only called more attention to the Biden imbroglio. 

When the inevitable happens, a Morning Consult Poll shows Sanders is the top second choice for Biden supporters with 27% claiming they would vote for the senator.  Fully 35% of Warren voters indicate they will switch to Sanders.  Assuming both drop out, Sanders will solidify his lead.

When former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg leaped into the race, there was early chatter about him claiming the middle ground and uniting the party.  Recent revelations about Bloomberg's views on minorities and crime have all but crippled his opportunity to ride his billions to the nomination.

That isn't Bloomberg's only achilles heel.  He is a billionaire in a candidate field that preaches disdain for the wealthy.  He is a solid but uninspiring campaigner.  Bloomberg lacks charisma that even money can't buy. He is anathema to the socialist wing of the party. Can he overcome his shortfalls?

But make no mistake about it.  Bloomberg is the Democrat establishment candidate.  His campaign has just recently unleashed ads attacking Sanders' supporters, a dubious tactic that could backfire.  For all the fawning over Bloomberg, he has yet to prove he can win a single primary.

Super Tuesday represents the last remaining test for Sanders.  Fourteen states will hold primaries, including delegate-rich Texas and California.  A total of 796 delegates will be at stake.  If Sanders emerges with the most delegates, his challengers will face daunting odds.

That leaves Democrats staring at the likelihood that Sanders will have bagged the most delegates prior to the convention in Milwaukee in June.  The question is: Will he have enough delegates to anoint him the presumptive nominee before then?  The prospect of a brokered convention portends.

If there is a brokered convention, where the frontrunner is short of securing the nomination, history suggests the eventual winner will be too bloodied to win.  The most recent brokered convention occurred in 1984 when Walter Mondale eventually won the nomination and then lost in a landslide.

Party purists are jittery about embracing Sanders, who runs for office in his home state of Maine as an Independent eschewing the Democrat label.  Knots of Democrat House representatives and senators openly worried about the down ballot effect of Sanders in a recent New York Times article.

All that said, Democrats are wary of denying Sanders the nomination. In 2016 after Sanders lost the nomination to Hillary Clinton, his voters were dispirited by what they viewed as a rigged system against their candidate.  As a result, most stayed home on election day.

Alienating Sanders and his base will create a chasm in the Democratic Party.  If another candidate emerges as the nominee, there is a real threat his supporters will remain on the sidelines. This is Sanders' last shot at the presidency.  A snub might compel him to run as a third party candidate.

The current Democratic Party dilemma may sound familiar to Republicans.  Not so long ago in 2016 the GOP establishment was bonkers about the prospect of Trump at the top of the ticket.  Although he drew the largest crowds, he wasn't conservative enough, a former Democrat and anti-establishment.

Grudgingly, old guard Republicans accepted the reality that he would be the nominee and abandoned efforts to sabotage his candidacy. The Democratic Party could learn a lesson from this.   Denying Bernie Sanders the nomination through skulduggery will likely sink the Democrat ship.