U.S. Economy Slips Into Recession Quicksand

The U.S. economy is sinking into a recession, a persistent, widespread contraction of economic activity.  It will not become official until July 28 after the government releases the data for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  However, the economic storm clouds have been forming this entire year. 

In the face of warning signs, economists, market analysts and the Biden Administration never wavered from rosy economic predictions. Even when the GDP declined 1.6% in the first quarter, they spun the news as a speed bump. The economy was poised for a rebound.    

There will be a rude awakening when the second quarter GDP data drops on Wall Streets this week. The Atlanta Federal Reserve, which tracks GDP weekly, is forecasting a 1.6% decline.  Negative growth in two consultive quarters meets the economic criteria for a recession. 

Experts assured Americans that inflation was only temporary.  The economy was just shaking off the cobwebs after the pandemic lockdown.  Recession was a distant chance. How did everyone from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to Wall Street get it so wrong?   

The answer: They viewed the current economic conditions through the lens of past economic recoveries. 

There has never been a volcanic disruption as what occurred in 2020 with the exception of the Great Depression.  The U.S. sustained massive job losses, extensive business closures, broken supply chains and the shutdown of manufacturing. This was unlike any past economic jolt.  

For months, the recession-deniers have pointed to strong job growth as a sign the economy is rebounding from the first quarter GDP doldrums.  In the past, job growth indicated a growing economy.  But the job figures are not a reliable predictor in the wake of the pandemic that shutdown the economy. 

The American economy lost 22 million jobs from February to April, 2020.  By the end of that year, there were still more than 11 million unemployed Americans.  In 2021, the economy added 6.7 million jobs. This year the job gains stand at 2.74 million.  That's 9.4 million jobs in one-and-a-half years. 

For the most part, these gains reflect people returning to their former jobs after being laid off. Most are not new jobs created by innovation or business investment, which would indicate growth. Federal Reserve data shows the number of workers today are 500,000 below the level in February, 2020.

In the midst of reported job gains, 11 million job openings remain unfilled, despite six million unemployed workers.  During the economic boom of 2019, job openings averaged 7 million.  America's labor supply has been depleted because fewer workers are in the job market.

The labor pool shortage may be partially attributed to the 2.4 million workers who retired early in the first 18-months of the pandemic. Total retirements from March 2020 to July 2021 reached 4.2 million. Anecdotal evidence suggests some retirees are re-entering the workforce due to inflation. 

A phenomenon know as the "Great Resignation" is also roiling the job market.  The BLS reports 47 million workers voluntarily quit their jobs in 2021.  The trend is likely to continue.  A McKinsey study finds 40% of workers and the self-employed expect to leave their jobs in the next three to six months.

Many take time off to re-evaluate their career options and personal priorities. If they return to a job, it usually is for better pay, more opportunities for advancement, improved work-life balance and job flexibility.  This constant churn in-and-out of the workforce helps explain the 11 million job openings. 

Confronted with this evidence, experts cite the low unemployment of 3.6% as as sign a recession is unlikely. Bureau of Labor Statistics unemployment data does not count so-called discouraged workers or those "marginally" attached to the workforce who haven't sought a job in a month. 

Buried in the BLS statistical tables is a figure known as the U-6 data. The St. Louis Federal Reserve watches this number more closely than the headline figure generated by the government.  The metric measures real unemployment at 7.0%, by including discouraged and marginally attached workers.

Another measurement of economic activity is total retail sales, a key indicator of consumer spending.  Retail sales ticked up 1% in May, but adjusted for 1.3% price inflation for the month, sales actually declined.  

Consumer spending is the best barometer of the economy, because it accounts for about 70% of the GDP.   Looking back, the feverish spending of late 2021 and earlier this year was predictable. 

The average American had saved 33% of household income during 2020, building a financial cushion. Coupled with stimulus payments, consumers were flush with cash. After paying off $82 billion in credit card debt in 2020, credit availability shored up consumer confidence to keep shelling out money. 

However, as inflation heated up, soaring to 9.1% recently, spending began tapering off over time.  Stimulus payments dried up.  Enhanced unemployment benefits ended. Americans began dipping into savings to sustain spending.  Today households  are saving just 4.4% of income.   

The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis shows credit card debt jumped 20% in April (the latest figure available) to a near record of $1.103 trillion.   The Fed reports revolving debt and credit card balances combined skyrocketed 19.6% from the previous year in April. 

In another harbinger of a slowdown, June saw a 20-year low for home mortgage applications as average home prices hit a record.  A spike in interest rates, orchestrated by the Fed, discouraged many first-time homebuyers from purchasing a home.  Homebuilders are are preparing for a downturn. 

Perhaps, the clearest clue of economic trouble is Americans are cutting back on driving.  Motorists purchased almost 10% less fuel in the week ended July 9 and an estimated 7.8% less in the week ended July 16.  Gas prices are falling because inflated prices are curbing demand.  

With the spending binge ending, consumers are in a gloomy mood. Consumer Sentiment data tracked monthly by the University of Michigan reveals confidence has fallen to 51.1% from 81.2% just a year ago. When people feel less confident, it influences their spending and saving habits. 

Businesses are grappling with uncertainty too.  Microsoft, Tesla, Netflix, Google and J.P. Morgan head a list of business firms either laying off workers or reducing hiring. In May, the latest figure available, 1.4 million workers were laid off and discharged.  Jobless claims in June were the highest since January. 

Once the government data confirms what consumers already know, don't expect an about face from the experts or an admission of failure to forecast the recession.  The usual suspects, Wall Street and the administration, will begin preaching a recovery is just a quarter away.

No doubt, at some point, the economy will begin to right itself.  But the lingering question is: "How long will that take?" Be forewarned that no one really knows that answer, however, you can bet there will be plenty of forecasters touting a turnaround soon.   

Unfriendly Skies For Airline Travelers

Airlines are flying into headwinds, stirring thunderous passenger turbulence. Thousands of flights are cancelled, leaving travelers stranded for days at a time.  Flight schedules are routinely scrambled. Airlines are scrapping routes. Flight delays are a daily occurrence. Turmoil shakes the skies. 

The downdraft in airline performance is documented by Department of Transportation data. Year-to-date, 430,444 U.S. flights have been delayed, a 250% increase from 2021.  A staggering 76,776 flights have been scrubbed, a 253% rise.  On-time performance is its lowest level since 2014.

Snarled flights are a nightmare for Americans ready to resume vacations after two years of pandemic bondage.  Hikes in travel bookings should be good news for airlines which weathered two years of crippling losses totaling nearly $200 billion.  Instead  it has created wind shears for airlines.

In the midst of this bumpy ride, passengers are paying more for worst service.   In the last year, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for airline tickets rose 25%, the largest jump since the Federal Reserve of St. Louis began tracking in 1989.  High prices and uneven service are unnerving passengers. 

The main issue for U.S. and global airlines is a shortage of pilots.  U.S. airlines are scrambling to hire 13,000 pilots this year, more than double the previous annual record.  For perspective, the industry hires about 5,000 to 7,000 annually, according to United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. 

The pandemic exacerbated the shortage by scuttling new pilot training and hiring, while triggering a wave of early retirements. Despite a $100 billion government bailout, which included $54 billion for benefits and wages, the big commercial carriers offered pilots early retirements to cut labor costs.  

After a wave of offers, American Airlines lost 5,400 pilots; Delta 2,000; and United 450, plus 1,750 were furloughed. Airlines are now poaching each others pilots, with higher salaries and benefits. To stem losses, pay for senior pilots at United Airlines now top $450,000 annually.

Easing the shortage will be practically mission impossible.  About 5,5773 pilots a year are hitting the mandatory retirement age of 65 each year.  The number reflects the aging of the pilot labor pool. Seniority pay and benefits encourage pilots to work until retirement. 

Normally, the big carriers fill jobs by recruiting pilots from the cockpits of regional airlines. However, the number of regional pilots has dwindled from its peak of 19,000 to about 14,000, draining the talent pool of pilots for the large carriers.    

To retain pilots, American recently extended 50% pay premiums for regional pilots through August, 2024.  The military, a source for trained pilots, is struggling to find aviators. The Air Force reported a shortage of 1,650 aviators at the end of 2021. 

The Federal Aviation Administration, which certifies new pilots, handed out an average of 6,500 certificates annually in the past decade.  When the virus disrupted training programs, there were fewer certificates issued in 2020 and 2021.  Regional airlines are career entry points for newly minted pilots.  

The prognosis for solving the pilot shortage is cloudy. There is industry momentum for raising the retirement age to 67, a bandaid solution. Regional carriers are petitioning the Federal Aviation Administration to reduce the standards for flight hours by 50% for new pilots.

Both proposals raise safety issues which regulators have so far frowned upon. It means the pilot shortage will continue at least through 2029, according to industry executives. The problem won't be helped by the fact the U.S. carriers will lose about half of its pilots to retirement in the next 15 years.

Although it's hardly comforting, the U.S. isn't the only nation dealing with a dearth of pilots. Europe has not only faced pilot issues, but labor strikes and understaffing at airports. London's busy Heathrow Airport asked airlines to curtail schedules as mountains of baggage could not be handled.

Unless airlines can reach smoother air,  travelers may soon decide it is not worth the hassle to fly.  That would be a downburst to an industry recovering after two years of financial disaster.  The carriers must act with urgency and innovation to recruit and train the next generation of aviators.   

America Being Undermined By Marxist Ideology

America is under siege with rampant lawlessness.  Murders in Atlanta have spiked 43%.  Rapes have soared 236.6%. Los Angeles gun violence has jumped 40% since 2020.  Downtown shootings in Chicago have increased 64%.  New York City's crime index is up 27.8%.  

Lost in the data, is the cruel fact that 181 children aged one month to 11 years old have been murdered. Two year olds are gunned down while their mothers watch in horror.  A total of 681 teenagers have died in gun violence this year.  A least 36 policemen have been killed trying to protect citizens.

George Soros-backed district attorneys responsible for prosecuting violent offenders are instead releasing the thugs into society. Criminals with long rap sheets are set free, only to be arrested again. What kind of a society allows this to happen?  Sounds like Venezuela or Tijuana, Mexico.

Much of the blame for the upsurge belongs at the feet of politicians in big cities who refuse to back police.  During the riots of 2020, mayors stood by as buildings were torched, stores were looted, police were injured and bystanders beaten.  The current vice president offered to pay bail for the rioters.  

In the bloody aftermath, defunding the police became a battlecry for politicians who wanted to cozy up to Black Lives Matter, Antifa and other violent groups.  Police budgets were slashed.  Politicians issued new restrictions on policing,  leaving citizens and businesses at the mercy of criminals.

This lawlessness extends to the Southern Border with Mexico. An unprecedented flood of illegal immigrants are brazenly invading the U.S.  In fiscal year 2022, there has been a 78% increase in the number of crossings compared to the same period a year ago.

The crisis will only grow worse as Title 42 is expected to expire soon. The Trump Administration invoked the order to restrict migrants entry into the U.S., including those seeking asylum.  Whenever it is lifted, there will be a Tsunami of crossings.   

Estimates are the end of Title 42 will boost the number of illegal alien crossings to more than 3 million by the end of fiscal year 2022.  That's more than the population of Chicago (2.6 million). Even that projection likely understates the massive tide of illegals because it does not include "getaways."

The Customs and Border Protection agency estimates 220,000 illegal immigrants evaded Border Patrol capture in just a a four-month period from October 2021 to February 2022.  These so-called "getaways" were spotted on cameras and sensors at the border but the agency lacked manpower to capture them.   

Estimates of the total "getaways" range from 400,000 to 800,000, who have stole into America undetected since January, 2021, according to former Border Patrol brass.  Although no one can say for sure, Border Patrol agents suspect many are drug and human smugglers now operating in the U.S.  

This incursion is the handiwork of powerful Mexican drug cartels. While the Biden-controlled media focuses on the bedraggled masses, the news outlets ignore the fact that every single person who enters the U.S. illegally has paid a member of the drug cartel.

Human smuggling is the dirty underbelly the media refuses to expose. Smuggling rings in Central America recruit poor citizens and then exploit them by demanding money for a ticket to the U.S.  The immigrants then pay guards at the Mexican border before they are handed off to cartel traffickers

Drugs, including Chinese-made fentanyl, are being transported by immigrants who do the cartel's dirty work as payment for entry. U.S. fentanyl deaths are setting records.  Law enforcement officials know an undetermined number of drug mules link up with Central American drug gangs in the U.S. 

The smugglers operate with impunity in broad daylight.  Why is America impotent to stop this criminal activity?  Other countries around the globe have found ways to deal with the problem.  But the most powerful country on Earth is powerless to stop these cartel criminals?  That makes no sense.  

Beyond lawlessness, the Biden Administration has overseen cataclysmic economic disruption. Inflation is running at a 40-year high.  Gasoline prices are the highest ever. Fuel costs have rippled through the economy,  driving up prices of food and other goods. Empty grocery shelves are a new reality. 

Biden upset the economic equilibrium in 2021 when he embarked on a new green deal policy offensive. His decisions shackled oil production in the U.S., driving up gas prices 66% before the Ukrainian war. American consumers are bearing the brunt of this disastrous government policy.

A fair examination of today's biggest issues leads to the inevitable conclusion that these disasters, from lawlessness, to overheated inflation, are all self-inflicted by the Biden Administration.  It could still reverse course but there appears to be no sense of turning back for this deeply unpopular president.

Biden campaigned on the promise to fundamentally change America. Few voters realized that would  involve denigrating American values, reordering the economy, shrugging at lawlessness and importing a permanent underclass dependent on Washington for food, housing, healthcare and free education.  

His ideological approach has all the earmarks of Marxism, Communist or Socialism.  Today the media refers to those who support Biden policies as progressives.  That term was coined as a distraction.  What Americans are witnessing is the implementation of a new dogma linked to Marxism.  

To buttress that view, look no further than the government sanctioned indoctrination of American children in the nation's schools. Classrooms are being turned into re-education camps, which preach anti-American themes.  Kids are taught America is a racist, patriarchical country.

Critical race theory and gender identity are high on the list of today's educator tenets Children as young as five are being treated to drag queen shows as part of their learning.  Kids are being sexualized in an effort to replace parental upbringing with a government orthodoxy about families and gender.  

Communists are masters of indoctrination of children to make the state the most important parental figure for kids.  The breakup of families is a goal of Marxism.  Why are America's schools being overtaken by powerful teachers unions with a decidedly pro-socialist viewpoint?  

Next to indoctrination, a key strategy of Communists is a takeover of the distribution of information and news.  The state controls what citizens watch, listen and read.  America is getting closer as censors at social media platforms filter the information to fit an agenda supported by the administration. 

The big media cabal no longer ferrets out truth but falls in lock step with the Biden Administration. Journalism has long since died. Activist reporting is the new rule in newsrooms.  Reporters who don't adhere to doctrine are fired.  The truth may set us free, but the media will imprison our minds. 

The Biden Administration has its own plan to stamp out truth.  A group is being organized behind closed doors in Washington to implement censorship.  The Orwellian squad is called The Disinformation Governance Board.  Why does a democracy need a censorship board?

Biden apologists argue the board, operating under the aegis of the Department of Homeland Security, will target the spread of disinformation by agents of Russia, China and Iran.  Why does the country need a draconian Disinformation Governance Board to do that?  Why can't the FBI arrest these "agents"?  

Once the media outed the board, the Team Biden fired the director and announced a "pause."  Don't be deceived. There is no pause. There is an ongoing effort to spruce up the charter for the board to appear more supportive of free speech.  America does not need a Ministry of Truth. 

Americans routinely ask: Why is all this happening? They are stunned watching their country riddled with chaos and a loss of American values. What may seem like a coincidental confluence of crises is a deliberate breakdown of law and order and a reordering of the economy and education. 

Before democracies loose their freedoms, most undergo frenetic chaos.  That creates a power vacuum for tyrants to grab power. They control speech, control law enforcement, control the justice system, control drug supplies, propagandize the citizenry and control children's minds.   

America is reaching an inflection point.  If Americans do not get involved, then the country will simply drift into Marxism.  There is still time but the clock is ticking and each day brings more destructiveness. Soon the country could devolve into a period of unchartered anarchy.  

We the people are the last defense for the preservation of freedom and American values. Courageous citizens are suing their government, showing up a school board meetings, using their voices to call out Washington's overreach and becoming more politically active. We all must do our part.    

In Memory of Dean Patrick Roy

Among Dad's keepsakes was an old tattered, faux-leather photo album I inherited after he passed away. Tucked in a corner on the second page is a yellowed, barely one-inch newspaper article with the heartbreaking headline: Infant dies. It reads in part:

"Dean Patrick, infant son of Mr. and Mrs. Fernan Roy, died early Monday morning, 36 hours after birth. Funeral rites and burial were held Monday evening from (sic) the Iota (Louisiana) Catholic Church with Father Olan Broussard in charge. Burial was in the Iota Cemetery..."  

Dean Patrick Roy was born June 29, 1946 at 4:25 p.m. in Jennings (Louisiana) Hospital. I entered the world 15 minutes later.  We were identical twins. Dean tipped the scales at four pounds, four ounces while I was a puny four-pounder. We were born premature.  Our tiny bodies could fit in a shoebox.

Neonatal care of preemies at that era was primitive, especially at a small hospital in a city of less than 9,000.  Neonatal nurseries were in their infancy.  Dad describes the hospital's infant incubator as a small box-like crib with glowing heat lamp to keep his twins warm.  No oxygen hose in the crib. 

Dad paced outside the nursery keeping vigil over his boys.  He aired his concerns about the searing lamp to nurses several times during his visits.  Mom once told me: "Your Dad was insistent that the lamp would set fire to the blankets." His anguish must have gnawed at him every moment. 

Three days after our birth, Mom was sleeping in her hospital bed in Room 16 when a nurse gently touched her shoulder. She awoke with a shudder.  The nurse stood silent a moment before informing Mom one of her twins had died.  "Which one she asked?"  The shaken nurse answered, "Dean."

To understand her question, Dean and I looked so much alike that Mom admitted it was difficult even for her to tell us apart. In her confused mind, she tried to recall the image of Dean.  That just intensified her mental distress. 

I can only imagine the grief and heartache she felt.  Anyone who has lost a child understands the anguish and disbelief.  Rose Derveloy, Mom's mother, was there to comfort her unconsolable daughter.  I am unsure how Dad received the sad news.  But he, too, never forgot that night.

The memory of that evening haunted Mom for the rest of her life. Whenever she awoke during the night, a dread clung to her conscious. Had one of her seven children died?  The angst never subsided over her 96 years. The sudden loss of life of a child would be her nightly cross. 

A day after the tragic news, Mom fretted that Dean had not been baptized before his death.  The Catholic Church in that era erroneously taught unbaptized infants when to a Netherland called Limbo. It was a cruel man-law that nearly a half-century later was assigned to the dustbin of religious heresies.

A nurse, perhaps to comfort Mom, volunteered that she had indeed baptized Dean before he passed.  Although Mom was suspicious it was untrue, she chose to believe the kind nurse had acted out of compassion.  It soothed her to believe her little one received his baptism.    

Sadly, there are no photos of Dean. No footprints. The only testaments to his short life are a birth certificate, newspaper article and a grave in the Iota cemetery.  For many years, Dad and Mom drove to Iota to visit "the baby's grave." Nothing riled Dad more than to discover weeds growing near the grave.  

In Dad's album there is a a picture of Dean's grave in 2017.  The miniature grave had been restored to its alabaster white sheen and the grass was mown.  Dad snapped a picture of the grave and the memorial plaque. He framed the photo and displayed it prominently in their residence in El Campo, Texas.   

Dad and Mom never forgot Dean. Whenever he was asked how many children he had, Dad always replied eight.  Then would add, but one baby died. Once while I was with Dad, someone asked me my age. I replied, "I am 14, the oldest of seven."  Dad politely corrected me: "The oldest of eight."

Dianna and I named our firstborn son Dean in honor of my twin. Although they never voiced their approval, I know Mom and Dad were pleased.  They had a Dean in their lives again.  When they spoke the name, it was always with a touch of reverence for their lost son.   

As the years have rolled by I often wonder in my quiet moments what life would have been like if Dean had lived.  Would we have had the same interests and mannerisms? Would we still look alike?  Would we celebrate our birthdays together? How would my life be different? 

The answers will have to wait.  

As I turn 76 this year, I am entering the twilight of my earthly journey. The inevitable is creeping up on me.  I am unafraid because I can scarcely imagine the unutterable joy of seeing Dean for the first time. Twins reunited. What a glorious celebration it will be.

How Your Tax Dollars Helped Fuel Inflation

Ask Americans what's fueling inflation and the answers are predictable.  Gas prices. Food costs. Higher wages. Supply chain snarls.  Even Putin.  No one blames Washington's big spenders. They should. In a two year period, Congress shelled out a record $9.95 trillion dollars, contributing to inflation. 

The classic definition of inflation is too many dollars chasing too few goods.  Some modern economists prefer to define inflation as a general increase in prices and a fall in the purchasing value of money. That describes what transpired when the economy opened up in late 2020 after Covid lockdowns. 

Once the shackles of pandemic restrictions were lifted, Congress pumped a record $3.13 trillion in economic relief in 2020.  Then Washington's privileged class doubled spending to $6.82 trillion under Biden. The economy was flooded with money at a time when supplies of nearly everything was scarce. 

Economic experts, including Ben Bernanke and Larry Summers, sounded the alarm in early 2021 about the spending gusher.  No one listened.  The priority of every Washington sewer dweller is to get re-elected by showering their district or state with pet projects or sending checks directly to voters.

Mr. Biden's $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan in 2021 triggered  an avalanche of dollars cascading into the economy. Checks for $1,400 rolled out to Americans.  Unemployment insurance increased. Child tax cash payments replaced credits. Cities and states were the beneficiaries of billions of dollars. 

Both parties share the shame.  That's why they are looking for scapegoats like Putin. Congress is responsible for approving the annual budget and directing spending. In recent years, Washington has employed budget smokescreens to hoodwink the public while it continues the spending rampage. 

Congress last passed an annual appropriations budget bill in 1996. Since then, Congress has junked the time-honored appropriation process and resorted to a series of massive appropriation bills.  In addition, Washington's aristocracy uses so-called continuing resolutions to fund the government.

This budget chicanery is a deliberate charade to hide the gargantuan amount of taxpayer dollars spent in a single year.  This process led to a $2.2 trillion Cares Act in March 2020. It provided cover for a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill.  And the the mother of all spending, a $2.3 trillion appropriations bill in 2021.

Granted COVID lockdowns created a unique economy quandary: How to jumpstart the feeble economy?  A Tsunami of billions of dollars were dispatched to airlines, small businesses and stimulus payments to Americans.  All that spending, however,  led to a bloated supply of dollars in the economy. 

But Washington's nobility just kept doubling down on spending. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) estimates that more than "$1 trillion in pandemic relief and aid approved over the last year remains unspent."  Washington's bureaucracy cannot spend as fast as Congress appropriates money. 

While your tax dollars are idling, they get wasted by your federal government. The GAO, a government watchdog agency, presented its annual report in May identifying $552 billion in government waste and redundancy. Those dollars will never be refunded to the taxpayers who forked over the money.

That is just the tip of a Titanic iceberg. Non-partisan groups estimate that overall fraud in the COVID Paycheck Protection Act (PPA) and the Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program reached $84 billion.  The money was stolen by criminals.  It was inevitable given lax reporting requirements.

Congress did that.  In its rush to prime the pump, it sent billions to the Small Business Administration which spent it as if money was candy at Halloween.  The Department of Justice has promised to find and prosecute criminals.  But taxpayers get nothing. Now the administration stumps for higher taxes.

Oh, and at a time when the White House was requesting more COVID relief funds this January, an enterprising report by a budget think-tank uncovered that the $1.9 trillion relief package had $800 billion remaining in unspent funds.  The appropriation had been approved in 2021.   

As your blood pressure spikes, the latest Federal Fumbles compiled by Oklahoma Senator James Lankford contains some doozies. Two billion dollars were frittered away by not finishing the border wall. Contractors were paid the money by the government not to build the wall.  Say what?

The U.S. Grant Presidential library in New Jersey received $500,000 for an art wall.  This is the penultimate of pet project payoffs to New Jersey's senators and Congressional representatives. Another $500,000 was dished out to the Nansen Ski Club in New Hampshire. Nice, huh?

But there's more.  A total of $2.65 million was conveyed to China for their health programs. The fisherman's co-op in Guam snagged a nifty $3 million. The government handed out safe smoking kits at the cost of $30 million. And, golly, $569,000 was doled out for lobster pot removal.

The gigantic levels of government spending over nearly three years injected trillions into the economy. Direct payments to Americans left them with money to spend after they returned to their jobs. To the untrained eye, it appeared to be just the tonic to boost the economy.

However, the mammoth government spending of your tax dollars created the perfect economic storm.  Supplies of goods were tight. Service firms were just getting back on their feet.  Trillions of dollars were sloshing around the economy. Too many dollars were chasing too few goods.

The Federal Reserve made matters worse by artificially holding down the funds rate to near or just above zero.  That encouraged more borrowing, more stock market speculation, more consumer debt. The Fed dawdled  too long, before finally inching up interest rates in the midst of record inflation.

The Fed's so-called accommodation recklessly added to the nation's supply of money at a time when Congress was on a spending frolic.  It was a double-whammy that poured gasoline on the fires of inflation. Yet the "smart" Washington noblesse told us inflation was only "temporary."

Congress and the Fed agreed the engorged spending would help the people who needed it most. But the people suffering the most today are those at the lowest rungs of the economic ladder.  They are making gut wrenching decisions about putting food on their tables and gas in their cars.  

That's why it is so disingenuous to hear Mr. Biden haranguing oil companies about inflationary prices. Biden, the Fed and Congress need to look in the mirror.  Start pointing the finger where the blame belongs.  Washington did this.  They own this crisis. Don't let them dodge accountability. 

American Farmers Bearing Brunt of Inflation

American farmers are under siege.  Soaring costs for diesel, fertilizer, equipment and seed are threatening to cripple the farm industry. Consumers see high grocery prices, but most are indifferent to the plight of the men and women who produce the food that ends up on America's kitchen tables.

This year the price of nitrogen fertilizer jumped 53%. Key nutrients used in chemicals ballooned 242%. The doubling of natural gas prices since 2020 raised the cost of nitrogen production. Texas A&M estimates the cost of fertilizer alone has added $128,000 to an average grain farmer's annual costs.  

Diesel fuel has skyrocketed 74% in a single year.  Diesel fuel powers most farm equipment, including trucks that transport grain.  Diesel cost $3.21 a gallon last May.  Now diesel tops $5.57 a gallon and mounting.  Fuel represents about 20-25% of the cost of grain farmers.

Farm equipment, especially for grain operations, is in short supply. Farmers are delaying purchases into 2023. Tight inventory is driving up prices.  As one example, prices for self-propelled combine harvesters rocketed 27%.  Large combines can cost as much as $500,000.  

Seed prices are increasing at the same time when farmers are reporting scarcities of corn and wheat seed. The average price to plant an acre of grain has risen from $3.75 to $7.50, according to Bloomberg. The price tag for corn seed has jumped $10 just since January.  

In a normal year, rising demand for food would prompt farmers to increase planting of crops.  Just the opposite is happening because inflation is making it more difficult for farmers to make a profit.  The U.S. Department of Agricultural (USDA) predicts a 7.9% decline in farm income this year.  

Inflation is rattling the cattle market also. The USDA reports cattle inventory is down 2.3%. Some farmers are thinning their herds, selling heifers and steers because of increased costs for fuel and hay.  Prices for a large square of premium hay has spiked from $171 last year to $300 to $350 in some areas.

Hay prices are escalating because farmers are producing less hay because of the inflated cost of fertilizer and diesel fuel to harvest the crop.  Droughts also have punched up hay prices.  But droughts are an annual issue every hay season in various parts of the country.   

The supply of cows and heifers is declining. The total number of cattle headed for feedlots is estimated at 1.81 million, a decrease of 1%.  Feedlots are the last stop for cattle before the animals are slaughtered As a result of the shortage, beef and veal imports from foreign countries are 29% higher than last year. 

Dairy farmers are not immune from the costs of hay and feed. Costs are spiking because there are 81,000 fewer cows than last year.  Even a 1% decline in cow inventory, is critical to the supply of milk and butter. Farmers cannot afford to build their herds. Milk prices are the highest in eight years.

Despite the data, uninformed media and politicians are pointing a finger at farmers, blaming them for the highest food prices in U.S. history. They rant about greedy wholesalers and grocery chains raising prices. The limousine elitists in Washington don't have a clue how their policies are hurting farmers.

The overall food index, a measure of prices for everything from eggs to meat, has increased seventeen consecutive quarters, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) for food soared 10.1% this May over the same month in 2021.  It is the largest ascent in 41 years. 

A poll by Morning Consult found that over one-half (51%) of consumers surveyed reported experiencing shortages of groceries and food, a hike of 43% from the same month in 2021.  America is beginning to resemble the Soviet Union, where empty grocery store shelves are a fact of everyday life.  

The common dominator driving food costs is fuel.  There is no way to avoid the issue of oil prices if you are serious about addressing the problem of spiraling food prices.  Costs for crop production and the transportation of food to market are rising to unheard of levels.  It's about energy stupid. 

The Biden Administration has done everything in its power to sabotage the energy industry.  Cancelling pipelines. Instituting new restrictions on exploration and permitting. Stopping drilling offshore and in Alaska. Discouraging  private institutional investors to pour capital into oil companies.     

This is a deliberate, Biden crisis.  Don't even mention Putin.  If America was energy independent as it was pre-Biden, the Ukraine war would still roil global prices, but the U.S. would be better equipped to soften the impact. Unshackled oil companies could meet demand. Stop blaming Putin.

In 2020, the U.S. was the world's top producer of crude oil and a leader in production technology. Policies encouraging oil production and large investments by private markets provided the draft that led to American dominance in oil output.  Today that situation has been turned upside down.  

As a result of Biden policies, the diesel fuel crisis is growing worse by the day.  Some countries are beginning to ration diesel as nations scramble for the fuel.  What happens if U.S. farmers cannot get enough fuel?  It is a scary scenario no one wants to entertain.  But it is a real and present danger. 

The United Nations warned this month that up to 181 million people in 41 countries could be hit by severe food shortages.  Surely that couldn't happen here?  Perhaps not, but there are many signs that it may be a reality if the current inflationary farm costs do not subside. 

Many farmers don't have the financial resources to absorb the surging price increases.  A Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank survey found capital spending by farm-borrowers was higher than last year. Delays in farm loan repayments are expected to rise, according to a Fed survey. 

Only the corporate and large farm operations will be able to ride out the inflation storm.  Smaller farms, which are the backbone of American farming, will suffer financially.  Unfortunately, it may prompt many small farmers to exit the industry, leaving a monopoly of corporate agriculture operators.   

In many states in the KC Fed region, dramatic increases in fertilizer, chemicals and fuel costs are predicted to reduce crop yields. That means less food no matter how you calculate the situation.  If you think the food situation is troubling now, just wait a few months.  

A recent Texas A&M Agricultural and Food Policy Center (AFPC) report contained this worrisome line: "Given the farm safety net is not designed to address rapidly rising cost of production, there are growing concerns in the countryside about the need for additional assistance."

The farm safety net refers to USDA programs that supplement the income of farmers and ranchers in times of low farm prices and natural disasters.  There can be no debate that the current situation facing farmers is a disaster for them and consumers.  

There is a looming food emergency and no one in Washington appears to care. Trillions of dollars are being spent in Washington and not one dollar is being invested in struggling farmers who feed not only Americans but millions around the world. Washington needs a wake up call to dodge yet another crisis.  

Monkeyshines Over Monkeypox Outbreak

Editors Note:  With apologies to the Babylon Bee, this column is meant to be humorous and satirical. It is a complete fabrication. Don't spend your valuable time at Snopes website fact-checking the details. The Washington Post would  give it five Pinochios. It is a work of fiction. 

WASHINGTON, D.C.--Dr. Anthony Fauci, El Jefe of an agency called NIH, issued an urgent warning about the spread of Monkeypox.  There have been 92 cases in 12 countries.  The oldest living federal government executive appealed to Americans to take Monkeypox "really, really seriously."

"We can't let our guard down," Fauci told a media conference.  "I'm still mad that some Red States dropped masking requirements during COVID. That ain't happening again on my watch.  The Monkeypox scourge is an existential threat to our very civilization. Even in Florida."

The saintly Fauci, an icon on morning television, explained that Monkeypox is spread through close contact with people, animals or material infected with the virus.  Human-to-human contact is believed to occur through respiratory droplets,  according to the World's Worst Health Organization (WWHO).

"Everyone will need to mask up," the diminutive doctor told reporters, straining to get a view of him.  "One of the first symptoms likely to appear is an insatiable appetite for bananas.  Others signs include walking on all fours, picking at sores on your body and swinging from tree-to-tree."

In rare cases, Fauci said some individuals may grow long, furry tails after four weeks.  "It usually only occurs in males because, let's face it, some men act like apes.  Especially those dimwits who won't follow the science.  They think Monkeypox is just like having the flu."

Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, advised the most vulnerable in the population will need two pox shots and 14 boosters. "Those most at risk are Americans with hairy bodies," she warned.  She recommended full body waxes as a precaution. 

Walensky, formerly with the Flying Walenskies, promised her agency would send 10 billion home tests kits to Americans over the next 20 years.  In addition, the CDC is urging the use of masks indoors, outdoors, in your bed and in the closet, while you cower in fear of the pox.

The CDC honcho urged the Department of Justice to hunt down and arrest anyone appearing in public without a mask.  Merritt Garland issued a statement pledging his department would deputize a self-righteous squad of virtual signaling elites to aid in the effort to Mask Up America.

"Mask vigilantes are just the first step,"Garland revealed.  "There will be $1,000 bounties paid to  people who snitch on their neighbors." Asked by a reporter if this was unconstitutional, Garland replied: "Under our constitution there are no absolute rights.  The only rights are those granted by the DOJ."

WWHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreysus (yeah, that's his real name) called on all countries to institute harsh lockdowns like those China employed during the COVID pandemic. "No one should be allowed out of their house, even for a Starbucks latte.  No trips to grocery stores either."

The Ethiopian WWHO master challenged a reporter's question about the severity of such lockdowns. "What would you rather be--well-fed or alive?" Tedros (etc) barked.  "Look how well this has worked in China.  Locking people up helps the government keep track of everyone. It's genius."

The federal Department of Agriculture tasked the Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service to round up monkeys in America's zoos and place the primates in isolation to protect the public. Zookeepers will be quarantined for the next six months to prevent the spread of Monkeypox.

(If you're shaking your head in disbelief, your federal government is so large it does have an Animal Plant and Health Inspection Service to enforce the Animal Welfare Act approved by Congress in 1966. Your tax dollars pay for it. Don't you feel safer?)

The New York Times, Washington Post and ABC, CBS and NBC praised the administration for its quick action on Monkeypox.  "We may be running out of gasoline, infant formula, while inflation is wiping out ordinary people's savings, but the nation's health is THE priority," the media echo chamber gushed.

Forty-three scientists with federal government grants, the entire intelligence community, eight retired Postmasters and a couple of homeless people in San Francisco took out an ad in the Wall Street Journal appealing to Americans to become sheep-like, following the health shepherd Fauci.

When pressed on the science behind the monkeypox restrictions, Dr. Fauci became defensive.  "I am science. We don't need research. That's why we are allies with the United Kingdom and Israel.  They do scientific studies.  I don't need a study to tell me Monkeypox is bad, bad, bad."

Within hours of the media show, President Biden signed his 110th executive order, this one requiring grocery stores to pull bananas from store shelves.  In addition, songs and books mentioning the word "monkey" have been banned. "Monkey is now a four-letter word," the president said earnestly. 

Polls show Americans plan to remain unmasked.  However,  77% of the population believe monkeys have the right to self-identify as elephants. "This could end the Monkeypox crisis," Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell said.  "But I guess then we'd have elephants showering with monkeys."