Mexican Drug Violence: Illegal Immigation Nightmare

As drug violence escalates along our southern border, it is beginning to appear that the Mexican government is losing its four-year war with the powerful cartels. Heavily armed drug death squads continue to murder with impunity, wiping out government soldiers, police, rival gang members, politicians and news reporters. Innocent bystanders are often part of the collateral damage. In one attack, six children, including a two-year old, were slaughtered. No one is spared in this grisly violent spasm that has gripped the country.

Earlier this month the killings reached a nadir when the country recorded its bloodiest weekend. In a string of attacks, 14 were killed in an assault on a drug house, 12 federal officers died in an ambush and 19 drug addicts in a rehabilitation clinic were executed in gangland fashion. In a single 24-hour period, the death toll reached 85, surpassing the previous record of 58 killings in 2008. That same week more than 160 people were murdered. Even for Mexico, these are mind-numbing statistics.

Since December 2006, more than 23,000 people have been killed in drug-related violence. In just one year period, murders jumped 300 percent. As the killings have mounted, the incidents have turned more grotesque with each passing day. Decapitations, mutilations, sexual abuse, torture and sadistic ritual violence have been used by the drug gangs to intimidate and silence those who would oppose them. The message is clear to Mexico's frightened population.

For the government's part, the response has been lacking in resolve. Instead of an all out offensive, the government of Felipe Calderon has treated the conflict as more of a war of containment. In a sprawling country of 111 million people, the government has dispatched 50,000 troops, hardly a show of massive force. Often the troops are out gunned by heavily armed drug cartel forces that are better trained in tactical warfare. In addition, the level of corruption in the local police and the military remains high. That helps explain how the cartels have gained the upper hand.

As one example of the government's failure, the city of Cuidad Juarez on the Texas border with El Paso has been a hotbed of violence. Nearly ten people are murdered every day. Almost 1,200 have been killed this year. The city is emptying at an alarming rate as citizens flee the violence and businesses shutter their shops. By some estimates, 30,000 people have abandoned the city of 1.3 million. Instead of establishing a massive, heavily-armed military presence and declaring martial law in Juarez, the government has been content to send a few thousand troops in hopes of quelling the violence. This approach has been an utter disaster.

President Calderon, taking a page from President Obama's playbook, continues to blame the U.S. for all Mexico's problems. The U.S. appetite for drugs and the flow of weapons across the border to Mexico are to blame, Calderon complains. Granted he does have a point, but Mexico's own failures to cope with the issues speak louder of the government's performance. Instead of finger-pointing, Calderon needs to quit pussyfooting around with the cartels and wage war on the drug lords.

It's hard to imagine that ordinary Americans would stand idly by if the U.S. military and police could not stamp out rampant violence in our cities. However, Mexico's citizenry has a long history of passivity, ignoring corruption and drugs. Looking the other way is ingrained in the Mexican culture. That has allowed the cartels to operate brazenly without fear of a revolt by the populace.

For that reason, one must question the long term stamina of the Mexican government's anti-drug battle. People and businesses are growing tired of the violence. They view the government as ineffective in protecting them. No section of the country remains untouched by the violence. Once tourist towns were considered safe havens, but all that is changing, too, as murders rack every corner of the country, sparing no city. Even in President Calderon's home state, drug lords recently gunned down 12 federal officers. They were beheaded and their bodies dumped along side a busy highway.

In a sign of the cartel's growing influence, one of the Mexican President's top anti-drug prosecutors was recently arrested and charged with accepting more than $500,000 in bribes from the powerful Sinaloa cartel, headed by Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman, a billionaire and one of Mexico's richest men. Incredibly, Guzman and other drug kingpins are not arrested; their assets are not confiscated; and, they travel freely about the country. Meanwhile, the cartels are raking in an estimated $10 to $25 billion annually in profits from illegal drugs.

There appear to be two possible outcomes to the violent upheaval gripping the country. The most likely may be that Calderon abandons his campaign, leaving the cartels to fight it out among themselves for the most lucrative drug routes. This would not stop the bloodshed, of course. Perhaps fewer police and military would die. However, if Calderon gives in, it would embolden the drug cartels to spread their tentacles even deeper into society and business. The country would slowly collapse, causing hundreds of thousands of citizens to flee over a period of time.

The second scenario is more ominous. Under that outcome, Mexico dissolves into complete turmoil as drug cartels literally take over the country. The government is under siege. Civil war breaks out in the streets. People flee in the millions for their very lives.

Whichever outcome unfolds, the U.S. would be the most likely escape route for Mexicans. That means thousands of illegal immigrants would be streaming into the U.S. If U.S. policy-makers today are hard-pressed to close the borders, it will be all but impossible if chaos erupts. People willing to risk everything for a job is one thing, but the desperation of people fleeing from a bullet is something altogether more difficult to contain.

Already, there are troubling signs that should make the Washington crowd sit up and take notice. Asylum requests from Mexican nationals are increasing at an alarming rate. There are 12,100 such requests pending, according to the Justice Department's Executive Office for Immigration Review. There would be thousands more, but Mexicans are discouraged by the few requests that have been granted: only 232 to date. No one knows how many Mexicans today are surreptitiously leaving the country for the U.S. to escape the violence. However, it is clear that many fleeing Mexico are increasingly criminals, who are eluding rival gangs or seeking shelter while they regroup.

Some Americans may see the increasing drug violence as solely Mexico's problem. But the increase in kidnappings of Americans should be a wake up call. Nearly 70 U.S. citizens have been kidnapped by cartels on both American and Mexican soil. Phoenix now holds the distinction as the city with the second highest reported kidnappings in the world. In just the last year, kidnappings in that city have risen 40 percent. (Is it any wonder Arizona was the first state to pass tough illegal immigration legislation?) Mexico City ranks number one with 30-50 kidnappings every day.


Up to now, the U.S. government has limited its assistance to technical and financial aid. The Obama administration is spending $1.3 billion to train police, reform the courts and supply military equipment to the Mexican government. But our government has been poring millions of dollars to fund Mexico's effort for nearly a decade without any impact on reducing the violence and restoring a measure of peace.

The Obama Administration would be well advised to take heed. There is a brewing storm in Mexico that threatens to unleash a mass migration unlike any the U.S. has ever witnessed. That is why border security should be a top priority for the administration. A year from now may be too late.

Sadly, up to this point, the government has seemed more willing to criticize Arizona's attempt to stem the tide of illegals, rather than offer concrete solutions. Every day that the administration delays addressing this issue, it imperils the future safety of all Americans.