Friday, January 6, 2012

Don't Be Fooled By Deceitful Unemployment Rates

U6 may sound like the name of a World War II German submarine, but it holds the key to unlocking the real unemployment figures in the United States.  Yet the mainstream media omits the U6 number when it reports jobless rates because it does not fit the narrative of an improving economy.

By way of explanation, U6 refers to one of several formulae the Bureau of Labor Statistics uses to calculate the nation's unemployment rate.  Under the Obama Administration, the bureau has camouflaged the U6  measurement in a stack of statistics, hoping it will be overlooked. 

Under the U6 calculation, the country's unemployment rate for December stood at 15.2 percent.  This measurement includes not only Americans unable to find work, but those who have given up seeking employment as well as people who want full-time positions but have settled for part-time jobs.

When President Obama assumed office in 2008, the U6 jobless rate was 8.8 percent.  It reached its zenith in October of 2009 when it soared to 17.4 percent, a level not seen since the Great Depression. However, most media outlets either buried the number or never reported it at the time.

Instead, the media and the Bureau of Labor Statistics tout what is known as the U3 unemployment rate.   This formula considers only unemployed Americans actively seeking work.   Those people with no job, but not looking for employment, are not counted.

In many cases, these workers have given up because they believe their search for employment would be futile.  They have cause for pessimism.  According to the latest government figures, there are more than 4.5 unemployed people for every job created by the economy. 

Using the "official" U3 measurement, the current unemployment rate is 8.5 percent.  That is a far cry from the real number of 15.2 percent.  But it shores up the media's argument on the president's behalf that the economy is trending in the right direction.

However, this ignores the fact that even under the "official" measurement there are still 23.7 million Americans out of work. Since December of 2007, the U.S. economy has shed 6 million jobs. Last year the country added 1.6 million jobs.  At that growth rate, economic prosperity will remain elusive for years.

Finagling the unemployment rate isn't the only fraud the media has perpetrated.  News outlets also have taken to trumpeting private-sector hiring numbers. However, the media conveniently fails to mention that most new jobs being added are "low wage" positions, according to the Labor Bureau.  

In recent months, the media has latched on to declining jobless claims to buttress the notion of economic recovery.  Each month's tally is breathlessly recited.  However, news outlets fail to report that seasonal hiring has been mostly responsible for the improvement.

In other cases, the media is indifferent to upward revisions in economic numbers.   For instance, the November jobless rate of 8.6 percent recently was revised to 8.7 percent but the change escaped media attention until the more favorable December figures were issued this month.  Coincidence?

None of this should surprise astute observers.  Big media is heavily invested in President Obama's reelection.   They will go to any length to secure a second term for the president, even if it means torpedoing the "real" unemployment numbers.

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