Top Ten Predictions For 2012

If you thought 2011 was a bad year,  just wait until you learn what's just around the corner in 2012.  From the world economy to international politics, all signs point to a new year shaken by one crisis after another.  Better chew a bottle of Maalox before you read any further.  

Crystal ball gazing has never been easy, but 2012 presents a Herculean challenge for prognosticators.  Turmoil has roiled financial markets, governments, trade and foreign policy, making predicting the future is as difficult as trying to nail Jello to a wall.

Despite the formidable challenge, here are the Top Ten Predictions for 2012:

1.  Rosy forecasts for economic recovery in the U.S. fail to materialize as GDP growth barely inches  above 2 percent after finishing below that level in 2011.   Consumer spending, the backbone of the economy, suffers as layoffs,  falling house prices and anemic wage growth scuttle the economy.

2.  The European Union teeters on the brink of a currency crisis as burgeoning sovereign debt compels some member nations to consider pulling out of the euro-zone.  Economic growth in the EU stumbles to a minuscule one percent as financial shock waves jolt the continent.

3.  Housing prices continue their downward spiral while annual sales barely eclipse 2010's low water mark of 4.91 million. Foreclosures jump in the first half of the year as mortgage firms clean up the mess of paperwork stalled by government investigations.

4.  North Korea's new leader, anxious to flex his power, provokes a confrontation with neighboring South Korea, which escalates into a massing of troops in the DMZ between the two countries.  After the dust-up, the military quietly begins looking for an opportunity to dump the new dictator.

5.  Gasoline prices in the United States leap past $5 a gallon as Iran begins meddling in the affairs of Iraq, destabilizing the Mideast.  As a result of Iranian coaxing, sectarian violence flares up, leading to the fall of the current government.

6.  In spite of a sour economy, cosmetic surgery procedures experience record growth in the United States.  The nip-and-tuck industry's revenues lift past the $15 billion mark in 2012 as aging boomers with discretionary income face their golden years with a new look.

7. Russian premier Putin, nervously watching growing unrest at home, secretly concocts a scheme to spark a domestic terrorist attack aimed at shifting voters' focus on homeland security. Rattled by the crisis, Russians return Putin to the nation's presidency.

8.  Real unemployment remains near 16 percent in the U.S., but the Bureau of Labor Statistics issues a report in the third quarter pegging the jobless rate at 8.4 percent in a desperate attempt to show the economic policies of the president are succeeding.

9.  A weak political organization and voter fatigue sink the presidential candidacy of Newt Gingrich, leaving Mitt Romney as the presumptive GOP nominee heading into summer's Super Tuesday primaries. However, he fares poorly in the southern state primaries, which raises the specter of an "open" GOP convention.

10.  After a sometimes raucous convention spiced with talk of a Romney challenge,  the former Massachusetts governor finally secures the GOP nomination.  He goes on to capture the nation's highest office with 53 percent of the popular vote to President Obama's 46 percent.

Some may complain about the dollop of gloom and doom saturating this year's predictions.  Get over it.  The world is a scary place with more uncertainty and disruptive forces than at any time in recent memory.  There are good reasons for pessimism.

If it's any consolation, the prediction here is that the Mayans are dead wrong about the world ending in 2012.  At least, we think so.