And The Winner Is....

There are three metrics that will determine the outcome of Tuesday's presidential election.  They are, in order, turnout, turnout and turnout.  With the latest polls predicting the race is virtually deadlocked, the candidate that coaxes the most supporters to the voting booths will win.

If you doubt this prognosis, look no further than the 2008 presidential race.  In that election, there was a ten percentage point gap between Democrat and Republican voters.  Exit polls conducted by Gallup showed Democrats made up 39 percent of total voters. Republicans represented 29 percent.  The remaining 32 percent were mostly independents.

Turnout mattered to President Obama because he won nine key battleground states by less than five percent of the total votes cast. Those states were: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Michigan, Virginia, Wisconsin, Indiana, Colorado and Iowa.  Recent polling data suggests nail-biters again this election.

As further evidence of the impact, when George W. Bush nipped Sen. John Kerry in 2004, Republicans had an edge in turnout.  Exit polling found 39 percent of all people who voted were Republican, while 37 percent self-identified themselves as Democrats.

Gallup's polling this time suggests that Republicans will outnumber Democrats by one percentage point (36 percent versus 35 percent).  Although there are many other polling outfits, non-partisan Gallup is the gold standard with 75 years experience in global research.

Most polls, except for Gallup, have sampled more Democrats than Republicans.  In other cases, pollsters have assumed Democrat turnout will surpass Republicans.  That explains why most polls predict the race is tied or give a razor-thin margin to the president.  But the turnout numbers are wrong.

In 2008, the turnout was the largest in American history.  More than 132 million people marked ballots, representing 56.8 percent of the voting age population.  That was 10.3 million more votes cast than the 2004 election, when 55.3 percent of the voting population elected to participate.

An indicator of turnout is early voting.  Gallup released a new poll reporting that more Republicans than Democrats have already voted by a margin of 19 to 15 percent.  People leaving the polls were asked to reveal their vote:  Romney holds a 52-45 percent margin in the exit interviews.

In the 2008 election, the president fared better in early voting. Polling data asserted that Obama had a 54 to 39 percent advantage over challenger John McCain.  Many Republicans, suffering from a lack of enthusiasm for the Arizona senator, stayed on the sidelines that election. 

This election night watch three key states for an early indication of the likely outcome.  New Hampshire, which has voted for the winning candidate in seven of the last eight presidential elections, could be a harbinger of momentum.  Other early reporting states Virginia and Florida hold keys to the electoral outcome.

As results are tabulated in those states, all eyes will turn to Ohio and its 18 electoral voters.  The president won Ohio last time, but benefited from a record turnout from young voters, aged 18-24.  For example, voting surged 90 percent in the precinct where Ohio State University is located.

In the last 10 presidential elections going back to 1972, Ohio has voted for the winning presidential candidate.  Will that trend hold true this time?

The prediction here is that Mitt Romney will occupy 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue next year.

Enthusiasm levels for the president are flagging, even among his die hard base.  The youth vote will dip below last election's record levels. Independents will swing toward the challenger.  GOP voters are more energized than last election.  Republican turnout will undo the president's reelection.

Romney will win the popular vote: 50.9 vs. 49.1 percent.  He will claim 290 electoral votes to the president's 248.  However, it would not be a surprise if Romney surpassed 300 electoral votes on his way to a landslide, ignited by the late momentum he has enjoyed.

After the election, Democrats will cry foul and dredge up all sorts of bogeymen.  Expect demands for recounts.  Romney voters will be branded racists.  The media will claim Obama was robbed of victory. Attorney General Holder will launch an inquiry.

But it will all be in vain.  President Romney will take the oath of office on January 20.