Wednesday, November 7, 2012

How Romney Lost the Election

Most pollsters got it wrong.  Many media pundits blew it.  Few predicted the kind of electoral tide that swept Barrack Obama into a second term in the White House.  The question on lots of Republicans' minds this morning is: How did this happen?

In his victory speech, President Obama tipped his hat to supporters and campaign workers.  But he never mentioned the one group that aided his reelection more than any other: the partisan American media.  If that sounds like sour grapes, the facts argue otherwise.

But Mitt Romney cannot lay all the blame at the feet of the media.  His campaign never got its footing until the presidential debates, when too many voters had already made up their minds.  Here is a review of what went wrong for Romney.  

1.  Romney Branded Early:  Romney was never able to overcome the negative image created by the Obama campaign.  Obama's ad blitzkrieg and the campaign's vipers nest of surrogates spent most of the summer and fall painting an ugly picture of Romney.  He was too rich, too inexperienced, too out of touch.  That caricature was firmly entrenched in voters' subconsciousness by the time Romney began introducing himself to the nation.

2.  Romney Gave Obama a Pass:  Like John McCain before him, Romney never personally attacked Obama.  While the president's campaign was slinging mud, the Romney folks tried to stick with the issues.  That may earn Romney praise in some quarters, but it lost him the election.  Both McCain and Romney had lots of ammunition to use against Obama, but they were intimidated over being branded a racist.  The last two Republican presidential campaigns are models of how to lose an election.  Candidates who play nice finish last in presidential politics. 

3.  Media Hammered Romney:  The mainstream media showed early it would abandon all pretense of journalistic fairness to plunge a dagger in Romney's chances.  No sooner had Romney cinched the nomination when the The Washington Post ran a 5,400 word pseudo expose about how a teen aged Romney had pinned down a boy and cut his hair. That set the tenor for the media coverage.  But it wasn't just the usual suspects (NBC, CBS, ABC).  Online media was solidly in Obama's camp.  That made a difference, especially with young voters.

4.  Media Buried Bad News:  Not only did the media bludgeon Romney, but faux journalists suppressed, twisted and misreported any hint of bad news for the Obama campaign.  There was a virtual blackout in the mainstream media over the fallout from the murder of the U.S ambassador in Benghazi.  The government-supported gun-running operation known as "Fast and Furious" disappeared as quickly as it became a news item.  Economic and unemployment numbers, which appeared at odds with reality, were never questioned.  Most Americans now may never know the truth about the stench surrounding the administration's missteps. 

5.  Turnout Conundrum: Final numbers are still dribbling in from the states, but an early analysis appears to indicate that Obama will grab less popular voters than he did in 2008.  So how did he win?  While Obama did worse among some constituencies, his campaign was successful in increasing turnout, particularly among Latinos and other ethnic groups.  The Romney camp was late to the game in several states, such as Pennsylvania, that came into play during the campaign's waning days.  More data will be available in the coming days, but at least initially, it appears the so-called "enthusiasm" gap for Obama was more wishful thinking than reality.

Many Republicans and independents awoke this morning with a case of election flu, including symptoms of regret, despondency and chagrin over the prospect of Barrack Obama's second inauguration.

But there is one fact that should comfort them.  Four years from now, the long American nightmare will be over. 

1 comment:

  1. Indeed, these are valid insights to help explain yesterday's election.

    In addition, though, this faithful reader of the Diatribe suspects that if states receiving the highest per capita government aid and entitlement payments AND the lowest per capita taxes were all colored blue, and those states with the lowest payments and highest per capita taxes were colored red, the map would look very much like the final election map. Why vote out the President that puts money in your pocket at the expense of national fiscal health, and is an avowed Robin Hood...shifting wealth from those that have it to those that don't.

    So far as the national nightmare being over in 4 years, that is juxtaposed to the morning talk shows conversing about "Hillary in 2016". Until the Republican Party can find a way to be relevant to the new majority, in addition to being relevant to all of us that are now the new minority, the nightmare will continue.

    My observation is that voters like us spend ample time sending derogatory emails to each other confirming our views of life, and our views of the opposition. But the statistics say folks like us didn't vote in the same numbers as 4 years ago. Voters like them spend time getting the vote out, insuring their voice is heard, and winning elections.

    Four years ago, it was called Morning in America. To most of us, today feels like Dusk in America. If a true Morning in America is ever to come again, we'll have to be an active part of it. We've learned that sending emails is fun, but a very ineffective campaign technique.

    I commend the Diatribe, and its author, for raising the voice, and the debate, about what needs to happen. Are we all willing to be part of the solution? I don't know the answer to that question. What do you think?

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