Monday, July 1, 2013

Today's Graduates: Unemployed and Underemployed

Few groups have been as loyal to President Obama as college students and recent graduates.  They have turned out in record numbers the last two presidential elections to propel Obama to victory.  However, the administration has not rewarded their loyalty by improving job prospects.

Federal government data compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) sheds a light on the bleak employment prospects for graduates.

The latest BLS numbers for May show that 13.2 percent of 20-24 year olds are without jobs, compared to 7.6 percent for the overall population.  Unemployment among this demographic was 6.5 percent in January of 2008 when Obama assumed the presidency.

The bad news doesn't end there for the 1.7 million young people expected to graduate in 2013.

There were 284,000 college graduates working in minimum wage jobs at the end of last year.  That is double the number of grads taking home minimum pay in 2007.  It represents a 70 percent increase from a decade earlier.

The unemployment rate for 16-19 year olds is worse. Unemployment for this demographic stood at 24.5 percent in the most recent BLS survey.  That compares with a rate of 17.8 percent in January of 2008 when George W. Bush turned over the reigns to Obama.

Employment isn't the only crisis facing newly graduated young people. An average graduate leaves college with $27,000 in loans used to finance their education. The average starting salary for a graduate is $44,928, according to a survey by the National Association of Colleges and Employers.

In 2009, the average starting salary for a college graduate was $49,307.  Young people burdened with college debt have counted on rising salaries to help them pay off their student loans.  Instead they are losing ground.  

A Department of Labor survey found that employers expect to hire 2.1 percent more new graduating college seniors than they did last year. That might sound like good news, but it is 13 percentage points lower than projections made in the fall of 2012.

Evan Feinberg is president of Generation Opportunity, a Washington, D.C.-based advocacy and research group that lobbies for more jobs for today's youth.  He pulled no punches about the outlook for today's graduates.

"Young people are suffering disproportionately in this down economy," he said.  "There are just no jobs out there."

As if to underscore his assessment, a New-York based public policy and advocacy group called Demos dug into the BLS numbers and found there are more than 5.6 million 18-34 year olds who are willing to work but can't find a job.

That group accounts for 45 percent of all unemployed Americans.

It is a sad tale.  Yet young people 18-to-29 years old voted overwhelming for Obama in 2012.  The president garnered 67 percent of their votes while challenger Mitt Romney carried only 30 percent. In key swing states, the youth vote tipped the scales for Obama.

So how do you explain the continuing loyalty of young people in the face of dire job prospects?

Today's graduates obviously don't vote their pocketbooks.  Perhaps, when they are older, this will change.  But for now they have no one to blame but themselves for sticking with the president who has presided over double-digit unemployment rates for young people during his tenure.

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