Contested Conventions: A Political Donnybrook

The media mob, political pundits and Republican voters are hyperventilating over the prospect of a contested political convention this summer. Although, the likelihood decreases with each Donald Trump primary victory, the cacophony grows.  Shrill voices are predicting Armageddon.

The problem with the verbal histrionics is a lack of historical perspective.  Until the 1970's, contested political conventions were the norm rather than the exception.  In that decade, however, states began a stampede to hold presidential primaries to pick delegates to the party convention.

Before the primaries, there were some epic convention hijinks in both political parties.  Terms like "horse trading," "smoke-filled rooms" and "back-room handshakes" were often used to describe the wheeling and dealing at the raucous conventions.

No convention in this era will likely top the one in 1924.  John W. Davis waited until the 103rd ballot to be crowned the Democratic Party's nominee.  That record has stood for 92 years.  He was a compromise candidate after two other politicians could not muster a majority.

Democratic presidential nominee Adlai Stevenson was the last candidate not to win the nomination on the first ballot at the 1952 convention. He secured the nomination on the third ballot.  The last GOP convention that went more than one ballot happened in 1948.

That year Thomas Dewey arrived at the convention that year with the most delegates in his pocket. But there were strong challenges from two other candidates.  Dewey prevailed on the third ballot. However, it was a hallow victory.  He lost the presidency to Democrat Harry Truman.

Throughout history, presidential candidates who secure the nomination on the second ballot or later have suffered the same fate.  In 61 percent of the cases, the party nominee lost the general election, according to a study undertaken by Pew Research.

That helps explain why political parties abhor contested conventions. The outcome usually leaves emotional and political scars that make it nearly impossible for the nominee to unite the party.  The same concerns arise when no single candidate secures the required votes prior to the convention.

However, it is not necessarily a bad omen for the Republican Party.

Since the Republican Party's first convention in 1856, there have been 10 times when no candidate arrived with a majority of delegates. If you're a Trump supporter, pay attention.  In seven of those conventions, the eventual winner was plucked off the also-ran list.

Out of those 10 contested conventions, six Republican nominees went all the way to the Oval Office.

The last time a candidate of either party tiptoed into the convention without a majority of delegates was 1984.  Eventual nominee Walter Mondale was a few dozen short of the magic number.  But he cruised to the nomination after an eleventh hour blockade by Gary Hart was short-circuited.

In 1976, a battered President Gerald Ford paraded into Kansas City for the Republican Convention 226 delegates short of claiming the nomination.  Ronald Reagan had survived the bare-knuckled primary season with only 105 less delegates than the sitting president.

After a bloody floor fight over rules, the Ford forces emerged victorious, clearing the way for the president to secure enough uncommitted delegates to win on the first ballot.  But it was a squeaker. Ford's margin of victory over Reagan was 87 delegates.

Notably, both Ford and Mondale saw their dreams of winning the general election dashed.

With that historical perspective, the current fear and loathing over a contested convention appears somewhat justified.  There remains a good chance Trump will claim the nomination outright with enough delegates before the gavel goes down on the convention, making the point moot.

If Trump falls short, then the delegates elected by the people will fulfill their duty in nominating a presidential candidate.  There is nothing nefarious, illegal or unfair about the process.  The delegate rules were in place before the primaries were launched.

But there is one caveat.  If a candidate or party deal maker changes the rules at the convention, then all hell will break loose.  In that case, the Republican Party will be signing its own death warrant and Democrats will be more than happy to pull the switch to kill the GOP's election chances.