American Jobs: A Dystopian Future

Just as President Obama was taking his latest victory lap for America's economic rebound, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) ruined his self-congratulatory parade.  The agency reported the country's lowest monthly job growth in nearly six years.  A puny 38,000 jobs were created in May.

The really "smart" people--economists, bankers, fund managers and stock analysts--dismissed the lousy report as an anomaly.  Politicians did what they always do, pointing fingers and blaming the other party.  No one provided perspective on an ominous trend undermining employment.  

In times of economic growth, America has generated an average of more than 300,000 jobs every month.  Those days may never been seen again. Robotics, automation and artificial intelligence are hollowing out the job market, reducing the need for people in a range of professions.

Since 2000, America has lost a stunning 11,833,000 jobs.  During that period, private and public employers produced 12,994,000 jobs.  That number sounds impressive, but 24,827,000 jobs were eliminated over the same timeframe, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Those figures likely are shocking to most Americans because the issue has received little attention. The media certainly has not highlighted the problem and most Washington policy makers are too worried about sustaining their power to consider an American future without job growth.  

However, it is The Issue of this century.  Since the 1940's, America has rung up more than 10 million new job additions each decade.  In the 1990's, the nation tallied 21.7 million jobs. Manufacturing is the face of the new employment reality, having shed five million jobs since 2000.

Automobile manufacturing jobs have been hardest hit.  In 2004, the nation's car plants employed more than one million workers.  Today, the number has tumbled to 202,000, according to the BLS. Robots have assumed many of the jobs, including welding and painting.

A recent report by the BLS projects dwindling opportunities in industries such as agriculture, information technology, utilities, textile, computer operators, sales and promotion. Often, the proliferation of data computing, technological improvements and automation are the culprits.

Information processing and automated translations services, are reducing the demand for nearly every class of worker.  Thousands of clerical, retail, administrative and telemarketing jobs have disappeared. Professions, such as law, financial services and medicine, have suffered job losses, too.

Robots may soon be displacing humans in warehouses.  Taxis, buses and trucks will be driven by computers, not humans.  Computer kiosks are replacing retail clerks. A CEO of one of the fast-food chains envisions a future of automated food preparation and service.

Digital versions of human intelligence are being employed in ways once unthinkable, affecting nearly every profession without consideration for workers. White collar professions are no longer safe either.  The medical profession is on the cusp of a technological revolution.

For instance, in many cases computers can have a more accurate diagnosis rate for certain cancers than humans.  A recently approved medical device will soon deliver low-level anesthesia to patients. Robotic systems could potentially remove tumors from tissue with more precision than humans.

In the investment industry, automated services are eliminating the need for personal financial managers, financial planners and even stockbrokers.  Computer systems are performing tasks once assigned to low-level lawyers and paralegals, including research and writing legal briefs.      

University of Oxford researchers Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne, who have done pioneering studies on the displacement of workers, estimate that 47 percent of the current jobs in the U.S. could be automated and handled by computers by 2033.

What is driving automation?  There is no single answer, but here's a laundry list of reasons: $15 minimum wage, Obamacare mandates, escalating benefits costs, technological advances, safety concerns, worker turnover, speed imperatives, increased productivity, improved efficiency and profits.

America, in fact the entire world, is facing a Dystopian future where jobs are sparse, incomes are stagnant and inequality becomes more acute. Despite the dire outlook, no policy makers, educators, economists or technologists are offering solutions to help Americans cope with cataclysmic change.  

In the new economy, America will need to retool its educational system, cultivate new managerial disciplines, reform career decision-making to reflect the new environment, design new technological training for workers and equip the current workforce with advanced computer skills.

The task ahead will require vision and creativity, two assets that have shaped this great nation. Will America once again rise to the task of coaxing growth from a shifting economy?  That question will not be answered until the country first comes to grip with the problem of job evaporation.