An English prophetess with a shadowy past is an appropriate patron saint for modern day soothsayers. This sorcerer was known as Mother Shipton, although that wasn't her real name, and her prophecies were appallingly inaccurate or otherwise discredited.
Born about 1488 as Ursula Southell, this medieval prognosticator was credited with writing a pamphlet that predicted the Great London Fire. However, critics claim her manuscript refers to another catastrophe: the lack of liquor in downtown London.
Apparently, Mother Shipton confused the destructive inferno of burning buildings with fire water (alcohol). It can happen to the best of oracles. With that in mind, your scribe offers these predictions for 2017:
The Dow Jones Average flirts with 21,000 in the second quarter before dipping below 20,000 and rallying in the final quarter to end the year at 20,887. Rising interest rates, weak top-line growth at major companies and an unsettled global economy tamp down enthusiasm for a break-out market.
After eight years of no uptick in interest rates, the Federal Reserve finally emerges from its cocoon and announces two increases in 2017 as the economy improves. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen comes under attack from Republicans, who accuse her of playing politics by failing to tinker with rates during the Obama presidency.
A year after the United Kingdom's vote to exit the European Union, the nation's politicians continue to slow-walk negotiations with their continent partners before announcing plans to hold another election on the issue. The decision ignites protests across England and the current prime minister is forced to stand for election.
On-board intelligent voice control becomes the new must-have feature in automobiles, replacing today's add-on systems. Ford becomes the first auto maker to introduce features in its cars that allow the driver to do everything from lower windows, set the cruise control and initiate turn signals using voice commands.
A disgruntled FBI agent releases documents showing the investigation of Hillary Clinton's email server was compromised by interference from the Obama Department of Justice. The revelation sparks calls for reopening the probe, but recalcitrant Republicans urge the new Attorney General to drop the matter.
America's economy as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) finishes the year at 2.9 percent growth, the highest in eight years. The economic comeback is spurred by the growth in small businesses, particularly those in the Internet economy.
President Trump butts heads with Republicans over his signature issue of immigration reform, prompting some in the House of Representatives to call for the ouster of House Speaker Paul Ryan. The contentious issue involves how to deal with illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States.
After eight years of hailing the nation's financial recovery, the mainstream media suddenly unleashes stories about the lousy state of job growth in the United States, blaming President Trump for being too distracted by plans to build a wall on the southern border. The media will point to statistics about the falling Labor Participation rate and the anemic increase in job creation.
A major cyber attack on the White House communications system rattles the nation, finally raising a red flag about the failure of the country to harden its IT infrastructure against malicious hackers. Initially, intelligence community officials point to Russia, but the culprit turns out to be a cyber gang operating in Iran.
Eighty-three-year-old Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, an outspoken critic of Donald Trump, becomes seriously ill but refuses to resign. After months of speculation, she dies in office, leaving two vacancies for the new president to fill during his first term. With the naming of two justices, President Trump stamps the court with his own brand of judicial temperament.
Like Mother Shipton's visions, these predictions may also wind up being derided by historians with the hindsight of time. But at least for today, the forecasts have not proven to be inaccurate, something the good mother could appreciate if she were still around.
Monday, December 26, 2016
Monday, December 19, 2016
Fake News: Santa's Shocking Revelation
At a hastily called news conference at the newly built North Pole Tower, the world's most talked about person (not named Vladimir Putin) revealed that he intervened in the presidential election. Santa Claus make the shocking admission after weeks of speculation the Russians were involved.
"I decided to come clean," a repentant Claus disclosed to reporters. "Russians get blamed for everything these days. It would have been easy for me to remain silent, but that kind of behavior would wind up putting me on my own naughty list."
With a teary-eyed Mrs. Claus standing at his side, the jolly red-suited spirit of Christmas said he had spoken to the head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, James Comey. Contacted by email, the FBI director said no charges would be filed against Mr. Claus.
"We call it the "Hillary Clinton Rule," Comey wrote. "Clearly, what Mr. Claus did was a violation of election laws, but he just wanted to have a little fun with the presidential outcome. He was careless but his intent was not malicious."
Pressed to explain how he tampered with the election, Santa unleashed a laugh that make his ample belly shake like a bowl of jello. "It was really easy," the corpulent man admitted. "I sent elves to every voting precinct in America. No one would turn away an elf, even without a voter ID."
According to Santa, the elves waited until after all the votes were cast, then snuck into the building and jiggered with the electronic machines. "You know elves are very mechanical; they were able to change the results with just a screw driver and a hammer."
To distract the poll watchers and election officials, Rudolf the red-nosed reindeer pranced outside each precinct. "Everyone stopped what they were doing and went outdoors to watch that darn blinking red nose," Santa said with a grin. "That gave the elves just enough time to switch the votes."
While Rudolf put on a show, the other reindeer marched with signs that warned the Russians were planning to steal the election. A sampling of the signage: "Put a Putin Puppet In the White House;" "Vladimir Doesn't Dig Chicks In Pantsuits;" and, "The KGB Loves Free Elections."
"It was all a diversionary tactic," Santa explained. "The clever spooks at the NSA deciphered the signs and came to the conclusion that the Russians were planning a malicious campaign to decide the outcome of the American presidential election."
Santa expressed surprise that America's intelligence community fell for the ruse of a Russian election sabotage. "Even President Obama ordered an investigation," Santa said, shaking his head in disbelief. "I wonder if Hillary Clinton had won, would there have been a probe?"
Under pressure from the White House, Santa was forced to delete Mr. Putin from the "nice list" this year. "That was cruel," Santa complained. "Last year, I gave him Ukraine for Christmas. He was so appreciative. This year he wanted Eastern Europe. It would have been huge."
Santa found a kernel of good cheer in the episode. "The little mischief I concocted had all the media reporting fake news about Russian intervention in our election. Even The New York Times and The Washington Post took the bait. Of course today, the news is mostly fantasy just like me."
On a serious note, Santa said the election outcome had left Ms. Claus in a serious funk. "She was a big Hillary supporter," Santa told reporters. "She hasn't slept in our bed since election night. I think she is suffering from elect-tile dysfunction. She has even threatened to move to the South Pole."
As reporters filed out of the media conference, Santa returned to the podium in a flash and bellowed into the microphone: "Merry Christmas everyone! And don't forget to leave a plate of gluten-free cookies by the fireplace this year."
"I decided to come clean," a repentant Claus disclosed to reporters. "Russians get blamed for everything these days. It would have been easy for me to remain silent, but that kind of behavior would wind up putting me on my own naughty list."
With a teary-eyed Mrs. Claus standing at his side, the jolly red-suited spirit of Christmas said he had spoken to the head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, James Comey. Contacted by email, the FBI director said no charges would be filed against Mr. Claus.
"We call it the "Hillary Clinton Rule," Comey wrote. "Clearly, what Mr. Claus did was a violation of election laws, but he just wanted to have a little fun with the presidential outcome. He was careless but his intent was not malicious."
Pressed to explain how he tampered with the election, Santa unleashed a laugh that make his ample belly shake like a bowl of jello. "It was really easy," the corpulent man admitted. "I sent elves to every voting precinct in America. No one would turn away an elf, even without a voter ID."
According to Santa, the elves waited until after all the votes were cast, then snuck into the building and jiggered with the electronic machines. "You know elves are very mechanical; they were able to change the results with just a screw driver and a hammer."
To distract the poll watchers and election officials, Rudolf the red-nosed reindeer pranced outside each precinct. "Everyone stopped what they were doing and went outdoors to watch that darn blinking red nose," Santa said with a grin. "That gave the elves just enough time to switch the votes."
While Rudolf put on a show, the other reindeer marched with signs that warned the Russians were planning to steal the election. A sampling of the signage: "Put a Putin Puppet In the White House;" "Vladimir Doesn't Dig Chicks In Pantsuits;" and, "The KGB Loves Free Elections."
"It was all a diversionary tactic," Santa explained. "The clever spooks at the NSA deciphered the signs and came to the conclusion that the Russians were planning a malicious campaign to decide the outcome of the American presidential election."
Santa expressed surprise that America's intelligence community fell for the ruse of a Russian election sabotage. "Even President Obama ordered an investigation," Santa said, shaking his head in disbelief. "I wonder if Hillary Clinton had won, would there have been a probe?"
Under pressure from the White House, Santa was forced to delete Mr. Putin from the "nice list" this year. "That was cruel," Santa complained. "Last year, I gave him Ukraine for Christmas. He was so appreciative. This year he wanted Eastern Europe. It would have been huge."
Santa found a kernel of good cheer in the episode. "The little mischief I concocted had all the media reporting fake news about Russian intervention in our election. Even The New York Times and The Washington Post took the bait. Of course today, the news is mostly fantasy just like me."
On a serious note, Santa said the election outcome had left Ms. Claus in a serious funk. "She was a big Hillary supporter," Santa told reporters. "She hasn't slept in our bed since election night. I think she is suffering from elect-tile dysfunction. She has even threatened to move to the South Pole."
As reporters filed out of the media conference, Santa returned to the podium in a flash and bellowed into the microphone: "Merry Christmas everyone! And don't forget to leave a plate of gluten-free cookies by the fireplace this year."
Monday, December 12, 2016
America's Addiction to Pain Killers
More Americans die from overdoses of pain killers than are killed in auto accidents or murdered by guns. While lawmakers and activists are demanding action to reduce the carnage on the highways and on the streets, there is little outcry to deal with the rampant rise in opioid-related deaths.
There has been scant media coverage of the escalation of both the legal and illegal opioid use by Americans. The number of legal prescriptions for opioids has skyrocketed from 76 million in 1991 to nearly 207 million in 2013, according to Congressional testimony.
Opioids are a class of drugs that include well-known prescription pain relievers such as oxycodone, hydrocodone, codeine, morphine and fentanyl. You might recognize the drug brand names: Vicodin, OxyContin and Percocet. The illicit drug heroin is also an opioid.
These drugs work on the nerve cells in the brain and nervous system to produce euphoric effects and to relieve pain. When used properly, opioids help the more than 100 million people in the United States who suffer from chronic pain.
Despite the legitimate uses, opioids are often diverted for non-medical uses by patients or their friends. In many cases, the drugs are sold on the street. It has been estimated that non-medical use of opioid pain relievers costs insurance companies up to $72.5 billion annually.
In 2012, more than five percent of the U.S. population over the age of 12 used an opioid pain reliever for non-medical purposes. "The public health consequences of opioid pain reliever use are broad and disturbing," testified Dr. Nora D. Volkow, M.D., to a Senate caucus in 2014.
Doctor Volkow is director of the National Institute of Drug Abuse at the National Institute of Health. She has been sounding the alarm about the increasing worldwide problem of opioid abuse, which affects nearly 36 million people across the planet.
Drug overdose is now the leading cause of accidental death in the U.S. There were 47,055 deaths in 2014. The most recent statistics shows gun deaths in 2015 were 13,419. Automobile accidents killed 38,300 people last year. Why is there no outrage over the drug overdose epidemic?
The answer to that question underscores the problem with dealing with abuse. Over the past 20 years, laws governing the dispensing of opioid prescriptions have been relaxed. That has led to more doctors writing scripts for the drugs to patients who often demand the pills for minor pain.
Drug companies are also complicit, aggressively marketing the the safe use of pain killers. However, there have been no studies on the longer-term affects of usage. Despite the lack of evidence, pain killers are often viewed as benign by both doctors and patients.
The American Society of Addiction Medicine reports growing evidence of a relationship between non-medical usage of opioids and heroin abuse. It estimates that 23 percent of individuals who use heroin develop an opioid addiction. Four out of five new heroin users were first hooked on opioids.
The Center for Disease Control and Prevention found that women more often than men become addicted to pain killers because they are more likely to have chronic pain. Studies show doctors often prescribe higher doses over longer periods of time to address the continuing symptoms.
In a 10 year period ending in 2010, 48,000 women died of prescription pain reliever overdoses, the center found in its ground breaking study entitled, "Prescription Painkiller Overdoses: A Growing Epidemic, Especially Among Women."
Urgent action is required to address this issue. Opioid addiction is the main driver of the staggering rise in drug overdose deaths in the U.S. In 2014, there were 18,893 overdose fatalities related to prescription pain killers. That is 40 percent of all deaths caused by drug overdoses.
Even more disturbing, abuse by adolescents (ages 12 to 17 years old) has spiraled out of control. A study by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration documented that 168,000 adolescents are addicted to prescription pain relievers. Many graduate from opioids to heroin.
The problem will only worsen without a declaration of war on opioid usage.
Prevention of opioid abuse begins with education. Although these drugs can be effective in reducing pain, primary care doctors and patients need to armed with more information about the dangers associated with continued use and the linkage to heroin abuse.
Other solutions include more research on the treatment of pain without the use of opioids. More clinical studies are required to develop new drugs and compounds that do not have the same risks as opioids for dependence. Prescribing opioids should be a last resort, not the first treatment option.
Lastly, treatment of opioid addiction remains in the infant stages. More research should be undertaken to help patients deal with withdrawal symptoms and to regain control of their health. New medications need to be introduced as an essential part of weaning patients from opioids.
Dealing with opioid abuse must become a national priority. If not now, when? How many deaths will it take to awaken Americans to the problem? Whatever the number, it is too high. With so many lives at stake, further delay is unacceptable.
There has been scant media coverage of the escalation of both the legal and illegal opioid use by Americans. The number of legal prescriptions for opioids has skyrocketed from 76 million in 1991 to nearly 207 million in 2013, according to Congressional testimony.
Opioids are a class of drugs that include well-known prescription pain relievers such as oxycodone, hydrocodone, codeine, morphine and fentanyl. You might recognize the drug brand names: Vicodin, OxyContin and Percocet. The illicit drug heroin is also an opioid.
These drugs work on the nerve cells in the brain and nervous system to produce euphoric effects and to relieve pain. When used properly, opioids help the more than 100 million people in the United States who suffer from chronic pain.
Despite the legitimate uses, opioids are often diverted for non-medical uses by patients or their friends. In many cases, the drugs are sold on the street. It has been estimated that non-medical use of opioid pain relievers costs insurance companies up to $72.5 billion annually.
In 2012, more than five percent of the U.S. population over the age of 12 used an opioid pain reliever for non-medical purposes. "The public health consequences of opioid pain reliever use are broad and disturbing," testified Dr. Nora D. Volkow, M.D., to a Senate caucus in 2014.
Doctor Volkow is director of the National Institute of Drug Abuse at the National Institute of Health. She has been sounding the alarm about the increasing worldwide problem of opioid abuse, which affects nearly 36 million people across the planet.
Drug overdose is now the leading cause of accidental death in the U.S. There were 47,055 deaths in 2014. The most recent statistics shows gun deaths in 2015 were 13,419. Automobile accidents killed 38,300 people last year. Why is there no outrage over the drug overdose epidemic?
The answer to that question underscores the problem with dealing with abuse. Over the past 20 years, laws governing the dispensing of opioid prescriptions have been relaxed. That has led to more doctors writing scripts for the drugs to patients who often demand the pills for minor pain.
Drug companies are also complicit, aggressively marketing the the safe use of pain killers. However, there have been no studies on the longer-term affects of usage. Despite the lack of evidence, pain killers are often viewed as benign by both doctors and patients.
The American Society of Addiction Medicine reports growing evidence of a relationship between non-medical usage of opioids and heroin abuse. It estimates that 23 percent of individuals who use heroin develop an opioid addiction. Four out of five new heroin users were first hooked on opioids.
The Center for Disease Control and Prevention found that women more often than men become addicted to pain killers because they are more likely to have chronic pain. Studies show doctors often prescribe higher doses over longer periods of time to address the continuing symptoms.
In a 10 year period ending in 2010, 48,000 women died of prescription pain reliever overdoses, the center found in its ground breaking study entitled, "Prescription Painkiller Overdoses: A Growing Epidemic, Especially Among Women."
Urgent action is required to address this issue. Opioid addiction is the main driver of the staggering rise in drug overdose deaths in the U.S. In 2014, there were 18,893 overdose fatalities related to prescription pain killers. That is 40 percent of all deaths caused by drug overdoses.
Even more disturbing, abuse by adolescents (ages 12 to 17 years old) has spiraled out of control. A study by the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration documented that 168,000 adolescents are addicted to prescription pain relievers. Many graduate from opioids to heroin.
The problem will only worsen without a declaration of war on opioid usage.
Prevention of opioid abuse begins with education. Although these drugs can be effective in reducing pain, primary care doctors and patients need to armed with more information about the dangers associated with continued use and the linkage to heroin abuse.
Other solutions include more research on the treatment of pain without the use of opioids. More clinical studies are required to develop new drugs and compounds that do not have the same risks as opioids for dependence. Prescribing opioids should be a last resort, not the first treatment option.
Lastly, treatment of opioid addiction remains in the infant stages. More research should be undertaken to help patients deal with withdrawal symptoms and to regain control of their health. New medications need to be introduced as an essential part of weaning patients from opioids.
Dealing with opioid abuse must become a national priority. If not now, when? How many deaths will it take to awaken Americans to the problem? Whatever the number, it is too high. With so many lives at stake, further delay is unacceptable.
Monday, December 5, 2016
December 7, 1941: A Day of Infamy
Navy corpsman Sterling Cale had just finished his shift at the hospital and trudged toward the main gate at the military base. Light was approaching the island of Oahu, Hawaii, and a tired Cale needed sleep. He would never make it to bed that day, December 7, 1941.
Before Cale left the base, the first wave of Japanese planes launched an assault on the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet anchored at Pearl Harbor. The aircraft dive bombed American cruisers, aircraft carriers and battleships. One hour later, a second wave of planes carried out deadly raids on air fields.
By 9:55 a.m, Japan's stealth blitzkrieg had ended, leaving in its wake chaos and destruction. In a a few hours, the lethal strike killed 2,403 Americans, destroyed 188 aircraft and damaged or obliterated eight battleships. Plumes of acrid black smoke hung over the island.
Cale was startled by the thrumming of scores of planes as he was leaving the base. He looked back toward the harbor in stunned disbelief. He remembered seeing the red Rising Sun painted on the aircraft's fuselage and thinking, "My God, those are Japanese planes!"
A flabbergasted Cale sprung into action. He raced to the armory building, grabbed a fire axe and smashed the door. Cale began handing out rifles to American soldiers as they ran toward the harbor. When the men reached the main gate, they commenced firing at the enemy planes.
"I don't think they ever hit anything," Cale recalled. "Just too much distance." But the soldiers wouldn't stop firing because their buddies were being torpedoed and bombed by relentless swarms of Japanese planes intent on wiping out the Pacific Fleet.
"I saw about ten of them (planes) going to hit the USS Oklahoma, so I ran down to the dock and took the officer's barge," Cale reminisced. "With so much activity in the water, we never did get there." Undeterred, Cale began plucking Navy servicemen from the chilly waters.
"I only picked up 46 people in four hours," modestly recalled Cale, a native of Macomb, Illinois. "Some of them were dead already. Some of them badly wounded, some badly burned." The wounded were rushed to the Naval Hospital at Pearl Harbor.
During the first three hours after the Japanese attack, the 250-bed Naval Hospital received 960 casualties. Ironically, Cale was not ordered to remain at the hospital with the wounded. Instead, the master-at-arms had him stand guard at the receiving station with rifle in hand.
By nightfall, an eerie glow from the harbor was a grim reminder of the day's horrific carnage. The USS Arizona was still burning because it had sustained a direct hit to its ammunition locker. The Pennsylvania-class battleship would smolder for two-and-a-half days.
On December 10, Cale was assigned to lead a team of 10 men to begin recovery operations on the hulking Arizona. Cale warned his team about what awaited them. "Men, I don't know what we're going to see on the Arizona," he told the soldiers. No one was prepared for what they found.
When they arrived at the battleship, black ashes were wafting in the air. Tragically, those ashes were what was left of sailors who perished on the fiery USS Arizona. The memory of that mission still haunts Cale, a soft-spoken man who lives on the island of Oahu with his wife of 70 years.
"About once a week I go out (to the USS Arizona Memorial) and pay my respects to the people I left on the ship," a solemn Cale said. What remains of the Arizona rests in Pearl Harbor, where a 184-foot long white memorial spans the mid-portion of the sunken ship.
A total of 1,177 crewmen on the Arizona died during the attack. Many were buried with their battleship. To date, more than 30 Arizona crewmen who survived the bombing have chosen the ship as their final resting place. Others will surely follow.
Cale's military career didn't end at Pearl Harbor. He served in the Korean War and did a tour in Vietnam. His military service allowed him to see the world, something he never imagined as an adopted Illinois farm boy who had been shunted off to an orphanage at six weeks old.
Cale, who celebrated his 95th birthday on November 29, still proudly wears his cap stitched with the words, "Pearl Harbor Survivor." He had a front row view of the battle that hurtled America into World War II. His story is one of service, sacrifice and patriotism.
America could still use more men like Sterling Cale.
Before Cale left the base, the first wave of Japanese planes launched an assault on the U.S. Navy's Pacific Fleet anchored at Pearl Harbor. The aircraft dive bombed American cruisers, aircraft carriers and battleships. One hour later, a second wave of planes carried out deadly raids on air fields.
By 9:55 a.m, Japan's stealth blitzkrieg had ended, leaving in its wake chaos and destruction. In a a few hours, the lethal strike killed 2,403 Americans, destroyed 188 aircraft and damaged or obliterated eight battleships. Plumes of acrid black smoke hung over the island.
Cale was startled by the thrumming of scores of planes as he was leaving the base. He looked back toward the harbor in stunned disbelief. He remembered seeing the red Rising Sun painted on the aircraft's fuselage and thinking, "My God, those are Japanese planes!"
A flabbergasted Cale sprung into action. He raced to the armory building, grabbed a fire axe and smashed the door. Cale began handing out rifles to American soldiers as they ran toward the harbor. When the men reached the main gate, they commenced firing at the enemy planes.
"I don't think they ever hit anything," Cale recalled. "Just too much distance." But the soldiers wouldn't stop firing because their buddies were being torpedoed and bombed by relentless swarms of Japanese planes intent on wiping out the Pacific Fleet.
"I saw about ten of them (planes) going to hit the USS Oklahoma, so I ran down to the dock and took the officer's barge," Cale reminisced. "With so much activity in the water, we never did get there." Undeterred, Cale began plucking Navy servicemen from the chilly waters.
"I only picked up 46 people in four hours," modestly recalled Cale, a native of Macomb, Illinois. "Some of them were dead already. Some of them badly wounded, some badly burned." The wounded were rushed to the Naval Hospital at Pearl Harbor.
During the first three hours after the Japanese attack, the 250-bed Naval Hospital received 960 casualties. Ironically, Cale was not ordered to remain at the hospital with the wounded. Instead, the master-at-arms had him stand guard at the receiving station with rifle in hand.
By nightfall, an eerie glow from the harbor was a grim reminder of the day's horrific carnage. The USS Arizona was still burning because it had sustained a direct hit to its ammunition locker. The Pennsylvania-class battleship would smolder for two-and-a-half days.
On December 10, Cale was assigned to lead a team of 10 men to begin recovery operations on the hulking Arizona. Cale warned his team about what awaited them. "Men, I don't know what we're going to see on the Arizona," he told the soldiers. No one was prepared for what they found.
When they arrived at the battleship, black ashes were wafting in the air. Tragically, those ashes were what was left of sailors who perished on the fiery USS Arizona. The memory of that mission still haunts Cale, a soft-spoken man who lives on the island of Oahu with his wife of 70 years.
"About once a week I go out (to the USS Arizona Memorial) and pay my respects to the people I left on the ship," a solemn Cale said. What remains of the Arizona rests in Pearl Harbor, where a 184-foot long white memorial spans the mid-portion of the sunken ship.
A total of 1,177 crewmen on the Arizona died during the attack. Many were buried with their battleship. To date, more than 30 Arizona crewmen who survived the bombing have chosen the ship as their final resting place. Others will surely follow.
Cale's military career didn't end at Pearl Harbor. He served in the Korean War and did a tour in Vietnam. His military service allowed him to see the world, something he never imagined as an adopted Illinois farm boy who had been shunted off to an orphanage at six weeks old.
Cale, who celebrated his 95th birthday on November 29, still proudly wears his cap stitched with the words, "Pearl Harbor Survivor." He had a front row view of the battle that hurtled America into World War II. His story is one of service, sacrifice and patriotism.
America could still use more men like Sterling Cale.
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