Monday, December 26, 2016

Top Ten Predictions For 2017

An English prophetess with a shadowy past is an appropriate patron saint for modern day soothsayers.  This sorcerer was known as Mother Shipton, although that wasn't her real name, and her prophecies were appallingly inaccurate or otherwise discredited.

Born about 1488 as Ursula Southell, this medieval prognosticator was credited with writing a pamphlet that predicted the Great London Fire.  However, critics claim her manuscript refers to another catastrophe: the lack of liquor in downtown London.

Apparently, Mother Shipton confused the destructive inferno of burning buildings with fire water (alcohol).  It can happen to the best of oracles. With that in mind, your scribe offers these predictions for 2017:

The Dow Jones Average flirts with 21,000 in the second quarter before dipping below 20,000 and rallying in the final quarter to end the year at 20,887.  Rising interest rates, weak top-line growth at major companies and an unsettled global economy tamp down enthusiasm for a break-out market.

After eight years of no uptick in interest rates, the Federal Reserve finally emerges from its cocoon and announces two increases in 2017 as the economy improves.  Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen comes under attack from Republicans, who accuse her of playing politics by failing to tinker with rates during the Obama presidency.

A year after the United Kingdom's vote to exit the European Union, the nation's politicians continue to slow-walk negotiations with their continent partners before announcing plans to hold another election on the issue.  The decision ignites protests across England and the current prime minister is forced to stand for election.

On-board intelligent voice control becomes the new must-have feature in automobiles, replacing today's add-on systems.  Ford becomes the first auto maker to introduce features in its cars that allow the driver to do everything from lower windows, set the cruise control and initiate turn signals using voice commands.

A disgruntled FBI agent releases documents showing the investigation of Hillary Clinton's email server was compromised by interference from the Obama Department of Justice.  The revelation sparks calls for reopening the probe, but recalcitrant Republicans urge the new Attorney General to drop the matter.

America's economy as measured by the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) finishes the year at 2.9 percent growth, the highest in eight years. The economic comeback is spurred by the growth in small businesses, particularly those in the Internet economy.

President Trump butts heads with Republicans over his signature issue of immigration reform, prompting some in the House of Representatives to call for the ouster of House Speaker Paul Ryan. The contentious issue involves how to deal with illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States.

After eight years of hailing the nation's financial recovery, the mainstream media suddenly unleashes stories about the lousy state of job growth in the United States, blaming President Trump for being too distracted by plans to build a wall on the southern border.  The media will point to statistics about the falling Labor Participation rate and the anemic increase in job creation.

A major cyber attack on the White House communications system rattles the nation, finally raising a red flag about the failure of the country to harden its IT infrastructure against malicious hackers. Initially, intelligence community officials point to Russia, but the culprit turns out to be a cyber gang operating in Iran.

Eighty-three-year-old Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, an outspoken critic of Donald Trump, becomes seriously ill but refuses to resign.  After months of speculation, she dies in office, leaving two vacancies for the new president to fill during his first term.  With the naming of two justices, President Trump stamps the court with his own brand of judicial temperament.

Like Mother Shipton's visions, these predictions may also wind up being derided by historians with the hindsight of time.  But at least for today, the forecasts have not proven to be inaccurate, something the good mother could appreciate if she were still around.

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