Monday, November 12, 2018

Midterm Elections: The Important Numbers

In the rush to analyze the midterm elections, most media and political pundits have stuck to a partisan script.  They have zeroed in on party control of Congress, the Trump factor and the impact on the 2020 presidential election.  Their interpretations missed some eyeopening numbers.

Voter turnout was the biggest surprise of this midterm.  Despite declining voter turnout in previous midterms, there was a sharp reversal of form.  According to the U.S. Election Project, an estimated 113 million voters cast ballots, making it the first midterm to exceed 100 million votes.

If those projections are verified, it means nearly 48 percent of eligible voters exercised their right in these midterms.  In the most recent midterm in 2014, the turnout was a paltry 36.4 percent.  The last time voter turnout reached 49 percent was in the 1966 midterm elections, more than 50 years ago.

Political forecasters were stunned by the size of the early balloting results in many states.

For instance, by November 1 the number of Texans who cast an early ballot had exceeded the state's entire turnout for the 2014 midterm.  Another 19 states, plus the District of Columbia, recorded higher early voter turnout than the entire total for the last midterm.

In previous years, early voting had no influence on total turnout. This midterm was clearly an exception to that rule.  One difference from previous midterms is that more than 3.3 million voters aged 18 to 29 voted via early ballot, a whopping 188 percent increase from 2014.

However, seniors were the largest demographic to vote early.  By some estimates, seniors aged 65 and up comprised more than half of those who cast ballots before November 6.  Voting early is a trend that is likely to mushroom as people decide to skip the dreaded lines on election day. 

Turnout for this midterm hopefully signals a renewed desire for people to become engaged in democracy. America, forget the political parties, wins when people vote.  America needs citizen participation for democracy to succeed as the founding fathers intended.  

More women were elected to Congress and state legislatures than ever before.  There were 3,379 females running in midterm races nationwide, according to a report from Rutgers University's Center for American Women and Politics.  That represents a 25 percent increase from the last midterm.

As a result of these midterms, more women will serve in Congress than at any point in our nation's history.  There will be at least 118 females in the House and Senate.  The total includes 31 first-time House members, seven more than the previous high established in 1992.

The majority of the women in the House are aligned with the Democratic Party--84 of the 96 females that will represent state districts.  And 30 of the 31 female newcomers in the House are Democrats.  But the first Korean-American ever elected to Congress is a Republican from California.

The House and Senate will be the most diverse in history.  That bodes well for a country that embraces diversity.  These midterms ushered in a new era for women in politics. And it portends a day when a woman soon will occupy the White House.

The 2018 midterms were the most expensive in history.  The Center for Responsive Politics estimates that the two political parties raised a record-breaking $5.2 billion.  That smashed the previous mark of $3.7 billion in fundraising in the 2014 midterms.

Democrats benefited from the numbers of retiring Republicans.  The media tried to pin the blame on President Trump for Democrats flipping the House.  However, Republicans had the largest number of congressional retirements since the Brookings Institute began tracking the statistic 88 years ago.

There was an exodus of 39 before the midterms.  Most of them were House members.  Many, but certainly not all, represented suburban districts where the demographics have changed in favor of traditional Democratic voters.  GOP newcomers faced steep odds to hold these districts.

Incumbency is a sizable advantage in any election.  As a result, Republicans lost 31 seats in the midterms against well funded Democrats.  Historically, the party of the sitting president loses the House and Senate in midterms, however, the GOP survived a catastrophic defeat.

In 1994, President Clinton lost 54 House seats in the first midterm after his election.  President Obama suffered an even worst fate as his party surrendered 63 seats in 2010.  Measured against those midterms, Mr. Trump's party fared better than previous first-term presidents.

Although Democrats will control the House and Republicans will be the majority in the Senate, there are 14 Congressional races that remain unsettled a week after the polls closed.  This may be the most contests hanging in the balance in election history.

As of this writing, Democrats will have a 227 to 198 majority.  There are still 11 House races that are awaiting final tabulation of votes.  Despite all the advances in technology, counting votes remains a labor intensive process that often leaves neither political party satisfied.  This must be addressed.

In the Senate, there are three races undecided, all likely headed for recounts.  For now the Republicans hold a 51-46 majority.  The Democrats had more seats to defend in battleground states that President Trump carried in 2016, giving the GOP the upper hand.

By now your head is spinning with numbers, so here is an antidote for data overdose.  In Nevada, a dead man won a seat in the state assembly.  Republican Dennis Hof, owner of a brothel, passed away a month before the midterms.  Officials ruled it was too late to scratch his name.  It didn't matter.

Voters overwhelming elected Hof.  Apparently, having a pulse is not a requirement for election to the state assembly in Nevada.   Truly a sad state of affairs.  But nothing should surprise anyone after the tumultuous midterm elections of 2018. 

No comments:

Post a Comment