Democrat Primary Shaping Up As Donnybrook

And then there were 21.  Former Vice President Joe Biden has officially joined the mushrooming list of Democratic Party candidates for president after months of speculation.  His announcement means Democrats will square off in one of the most hotly contested primary races in decades.

Democratic Party candidates who have announced they are running, includes governors, mayors, congressmen, senators, a former tech executive and a best-selling author.  Among the eclectic gaggle are six people of color, six women and one self-proclaimed member of the LGBT community. 

A least four other Democrats sitting on the sidelines are contemplating a run which would swell the ranks to 25, far eclipsing the 16 GOP candidates in the 2016 primary.  No one predicted Mr. Trump's primary victory and the Democrat winner may also be an improbable underdog.

At the outset, there are some trends developing that suggest an early winnowing of the field.  The latest Monmouth University poll shows Biden and Sanders garner support of nearly 50 percent of Democrat primary voters.  All the other candidates are lagging far behind in single digits.

Name recognition artificially inflates early poll data, reducing the numbers to fool's gold.  Anyone remember Hillary Clinton's double-digit lead over Barrack Obama in 2007?  It is nearly 10 months until the first primary on February 3 in Iowa.  Events can cripple or catapult a candidate's chances.

In sizing up the race, there are a couple of political wind vanes that are pointing to the likelihood that a dark horse might emerge from the pact.  One obvious sign is that former President Obama has remained on the sideline up until now.  That is a significant development for Biden.

Many assumed that Biden, a loyal sidekick during eight years of the Obama presidency, would nab an early endorsement.  But there are indications it may never happen.  After four women accused Biden of sexual misconduct, the former president never rose to defend his vice president.

The timing of the accusations is suspect, too.  In the run-up to Biden's expected announcement, allegations of inappropriate touching suddenly burst into the news.  This is not coincidental.  Likely someone in the Democratic Party or a candidate orchestrated the leaking of the allegations.

The suspicion here is that powerful donors and party insiders cannot abide the idea of Biden as the nominee.  His baggage includes two unsuccessful presidential campaigns (1988-2008). He is 76 years old, gaff prone and carries scars from his days in the Senate, including the Anita Hill episode.

The other front-runner Bernie Sanders was rejected in the last Democratic Party presidential primary.  He is older than Biden at 77.  Sanders, while popular with young voters, is not considered a "real" Democrat since he campaigns in Vermont as an Independent.  Labels matter to party kingmakers.

Party operatives working behind the scenes sabotaged Sanders in 2016.  Many remain in power.  Sanders is viewed by some party leaders as too strident, too much of an ideologue. His age, image as a party outsider and anti-business tone are non-starters for a clique of mega money moguls. 

Some media outlets and Democratic strategists are already asking aloud: "Should a White Man Be the Face of the Democratic Party in 2020?"  For many, the answer is a resounding "NO!"  Fervent purists in the party are demanding a fresh face, preferably a woman, African-American or Hispanic.

The problem for Democratic Party pundits is that none of the other candidates, except South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has gained traction with voters, but his fund raising efforts pale in comparison to other candidates.  The mayor has taken in $7.09 million, far behind Sanders $18.2 million.

Mayor Pete, a military veteran, has attributes that swept Obama to victory in 2008.  He is youthful at age 37.  He has served in obscurity as a mayor since 2012.  He is eloquent, intelligent and confident.  He is openly gay, which earns extra credit with Democrats insisting on diversity.

As a bonus, Buttigieg is not a Washington insider.  Being part of the established Beltway political class is no longer seen as a plus as President Trump proved.  Buttigieg can attack the mess in Washington instead of having to defend Democrats' obsession with impeachment.

Outside of Buttigieg, the more progressive wing of the Democratic Party is fond of Senators Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Corey Booker.  However, the triumvirate has not penetrated the news cycles to increase their profile.  The trio are searching for a lightning bolt to ignite their campaigns.

Their low standing in the polls is certainly not for lack of money.  Warren is second to Sanders with $17 million banked, but has raised just $6 million. Harris has a $12 million campaign war chest. Booker trails in fund raising in the first quarter with $5 million, damaging his chances.

Former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rouke, who lost a senate race to Ted Cruz, entered the campaign with enthusiastic fanfare.  He has Bobby Kennedy looks but lacks the gravitas for the glare of a presidential run.  However, he has raised $9.4 million in campaign funds giving him staying power.

By the end of March, the race will crystallize.  Democrats have front-loaded the primaries in key states such as California, Texas, Florida, Ohio and Illinois with big delegate counts.  Twenty-nine states will have voted in primaries before April.  Expect a clear front runner to emerge by then.

The big unknown for Democrats is the influence of the socialist wing of the party as exemplified by Alexander Ocasio-Cortez, the first-term representative from New York.  Although small in number, they have been very vocal about demanding the party embrace a socialist agenda. 

Thus the battle for the soul of the party could turn raucous, roiling the process all the way to the convention in Milwaukee in 2020.  Both parties in the past have suffered chaotic primaries that left wounds that failed to heal before the general election.  That is a legitimate concern for Democrats.

The other political booby trap is overconfidence.  Listening to Democrats, beating President Trump will only require a warm body.  They are sounding like it's 2016 again.  Expect a drapery designer to show up in the Oval Office any day to choose colors for the new Democrat occupant.

General elections are not won in the primaries.  But the presidential race can be lost in a tumultuous primary.  Especially if a candidate enters the national contest with his/her reputation bruised and saddled with a divided party.