Demographic Data: Older Voters Are The Future

Conventional wisdom often is dead wrong.  Take the latest election hyperbole perpetuated by both major political parties.  Their widely accepted thesis is no presidential candidate can win without courting support from Millennials.  It has become the mantra of the 2020 presidential election.

In a recent column posted on Fox News, a political analysis appeared under the headline: "To Triumph in 2020, Republicans Will Need to Win Over Millennials." At the opposite end of the political media spectrum, NPR opined online, "The Game for 2020: Wooing Millennials."

This political obsession with Millennial voters is nothing new.  In 2016, virtually every political pundit forecast that Millennials would be the deciding factor in the presidential race.  Hillary Clinton won 53% of young voters, but lost the election.  So much for conventional wisdom.

Those who blindly embrace the theory of Millennial power have overlooked two easily discoverable facts.  One issue is a matter of simple demographic data.  The largest increase in voting age groups in the past few presidential elections has been Americans aged 65 and older, according to Census data.

The total number of citizens who reached voting age in the 2016 election increased by nine million from the 2012 presidential contest.  Of that number, six million or two-thirds were Americans aged 65 and over.  The country's electorate is graying, the opposite of what the media has portrayed.

An intelligent observer would expect the political parties to zero on seniors, especially in light of their propensity to show up on election day.  For the first time in decades, voters over 65 years old outnumbered those aged 18-34 in the 2016 presidential contest.  Let that sink in.

Somehow this fact has escaped the highly paid political consultant class.  Try this.  In 2008, Mr. Obama's win was fueled by the fact young voters outnumbered older ones by six million.  Eight years later, Mr. Trump was victorious because older voters exceeded youthful ones by more than a million.

For at least the next few election cycles, Census demographics underscore the importance of the senior vote, despite the media and political party hoopla about Generations X, Y and Z.  Pew Research estimates 23% of voters in the 2020 election will be 65-plus, the highest level since 1970.

Two trends are influencing this growth in older voters.  Birthrates have dwindled substantially since the baby boom period from 1946-1964.  And secondly, Americans are living longer than in any previous generation.  Those two data points are indisputable evidence of the Gray Wave.

The future should be clear by now.  In the war of generations, the old folks are winning at the ballot box.  Politicians ignore this at their own peril.  In fact, focusing on Millennials can actually alienate seniors because they tend to be more conservative than liberal-minded young people.

The other issue is the lower turnout rates for Millennials.  Analysis of voting over the last several decades confirms that people 65+ are more likely to cast votes than any other age group.  In the 2016 election, turnout for Millennials was 50%, compared to 71% for seniors, a yawning disparity.

Democrats are planning an urgent appeal to Millennials in 2020 to gin up enough excitement to motivate young people to show up.  The nadir for Millennial turnout was the 2008 election when Barrack Obama ignited youthful enthusiasm.  The turnout rate was still only 52%.

After looking at the historical data, Washington Post political columnist Phillip Bump concluded that a campaign that depends on the Millennial vote is "doomed to failure."  One political analyst in Mr. Bump's article noted that Millennials were "stuck to their phones and uninterested in politics."

Actually, that last comment may be another example of conventional wisdom gone awry.  The Center for the Study of Democracy at the University of California found that today's Millennials are about as interested in politics as prior generations of American young people.

Studies show many Millennials are politically active in protests, demonstrations and on campuses.  However, they are less likely to vote or to influence others to go to the polls than their counterparts were in the 80's generation or the first wave of Boomers in the 1960's.

Tufts University reported that Millennials are often early in their careers with inflexible schedules that afford them less time to vote.  They also tend to be more mobile in these years, which could delay voter registration in their state.  But those things have always been true about young people.

Reviewing voting and Census data, a trend emerges that better explains this phenomenon. The numbers indicate that young people tend to have lower voter turnout in most every decade with a few exceptions.  As they get older, mature and their priorities change, they are more likely to vote.

But it is also true that as voters age they have historically become more conservative than they were when they were young.  Despite this fact, political gurus are insisting today's voters in their 20's and 30's are unlikely to change their views as they turn older.  We have heard that one before, too.

While Republicans and Democrats chase after those rabbits known as Millennials this election, those turtles sunning in their wheelchairs and pushing their walkers will decide the outcome of the 2020 presidential contest.  That prospect is enough to make a young person to stay home on election day.