Surging COVID Cases Spark Draconian Measures

As COVID cases flare like a rampaging California wildfire, a swarm of authoritarian governors are resorting to stringent infringements on personal freedoms in the name of health and safety. Many measures are clearly unconstitutional.  Others are inane with no basis in science.  

The restrictions come in the wake of harsh lockdowns that persisted from spring through most of the summer. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) assured Americans that forced isolations would "flatten the curve," thus relieving the stress on health systems while slowing the virus spread.

Most Americans abided by the dictates.  Of course, there were isolated cases of brazen misbehavior.  The actions of a few should not condemn the majority. But it is also fair to point out that scores of protests, riots, sporting events and post-election political celebrations were also contributors to the insidious spread.  

Once lockdown constraints were eased, the virus ticked up while hospitalizations remained within acceptable occupancies as determined by powerful health systems.  But as the new rules loosened, COVID cases began a steady march upward, triggering Draconian abuses of power. 

Michigan's Democrat  Governor Gretchen Whitmer ordered gatherings in personal residences be limited to include people from no more than two households. New Mexico's Democrat Governor Michelle Lyan Gresham slapped a limit of no more than five people per residence for Thanksgiving gatherings. 

Oregon's Democrat Governor Kate Brown capped indoor gatherings in personal residences at six people, threatening to use police to enforce her dictum.  Other states, such as Massachusetts and New Jersey, are ordering restaurants and bars to close between 10 p.m. at 5 a.m. based on whims not science.

Here is an example of the kind of condescending comments from health officials in support of the autocratic governors from Dr. Mark Dworkin, an infectious disease specialist at the University of Illinois:

"Plenty of people will congregate (on Thanksgiving) and nobody will get sick and they'll go 'hah nah, fake news.' But there will be other families that will be devastated and it will be very bad for them.  If you want to play Russian roulette with COVID, that's your right, but I think it's foolish."

What is clear by these haughty pronouncements from elitists is they believe you are the problem.  Forget their scientific-approved lockdowns failed.  These hypocrites believe you need to be punished despite the fact most Americans are wearing masks, social distancing and practicing hygiene in public.

There is no 100% safe way for people to go about their daily lives even masked and socially distanced. Sheltering in place 331 million people for a year is a prescription for health problems at least as life-threatening as the virus. Every country emerging from mass lockdowns is experiencing COVID spikes.

The governors, instead of haranguing citizens, should be embarrassed by their own miserable failure to protect the most vulnerable individuals, despite their pledges to make it a top priority of their COVID response.  COVID deaths at nursing homes are accelerating in every state.

The latest CDC figures show 37% of all new Coronavirus fatalities are linked to the nation's 26,000 nursing homes.  A total of 46% of all hospitalizations are for people aged 65 and older.  The CDC reports  a staggering 662,000 nursing home patients have been infected this year. 

Why haven't the governors been held accountable by the media and health officials?  The answer is the media's incessant political weaponization of the virus.  Now the media puppeteers are riveted on climbing cases to raise fear.  New tactics include deceitfully raising doubts about the safety of vaccines. 

Meanwhile, there has been no mention that the United States is now testing an average of 1.7 million individuals every day, contributing to the rising cases.  Nearly 200 million Americans (181.1 million) have been tested for the virus or 56% of the population, according to the COVID Tracking Project.

Of those individuals tested for COVID, more than 145.6 million tested negative.  The CDC estimates about 40% of those who tested positive are asymptomatic, meaning they exhibit none of the usual symptoms (dry cough, fever, lost of taste, etc.).

Although hospital wards are deluged with patients, stays for COVID patients are falling nationwide. A study by the Mayo Clinic hospital in Rochester, Minnesota, found hospital patient stays now average five days, half as long as in March. The reason: hospitals are armed with better treatment options now.  

The current billowing rise in cases could have been predicted as the cacacoon lockdowns were lifted.  Returning to the dark days of sheltering in place will be difficult if not impossible to enforce.  If nothing else, the country's hospitals and health officials should have beefed up staff for the inevitable flood.

This latest round of infringements clamped on individual liberties by governors is fueling more lawsuits.  Most state and federal courts have so far declined to invalidate state and local restraints to combat the virus, except for a handful of narrow rulings on curbs. But the tide is shifting.

A recent decision by the U.S. District Court of the Western District of Pennsylvania struck down unconstitutional aspects of Pennsylvania's emergency COVID order limiting the size of indoor gatherings and demanding the "closure of all business that are not life sustaining." 

That was followed last week by a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the restraints on religious freedom imposed by New York's Democrat Governor Andrew Cuomo, who clamped restrictions on churches and synagogues,  limiting worshipers to 10 or 25 during the pandemic.

The plaintiffs in the case claimed Cuomo's order unfairly targets houses of worship while treating secular institutions less stringently and allowing designated essential businesses to operate without similar limits.  Other state governors have also scapegoated religion as an enemy of public health and safety.

"Even in a pandemic, the Constitution cannot be put away and forgotten," the SCOTUS majority (5-4) wrote in its opinion.  "The restrictions at issue here, effectively banning many from attending religious services, strike at the very heart of the First Amendment guarantee of religious liberty."

    

It is about time the courts stepped into the breach of constitutional freedoms by politically ambitious governors who believe unelected scientists provide the authority to allow the government to order what Americans can do in the privacy of their homes.  

All Americans want to protect themselves from this virus. The overwhelming majority have followed the public orders to the letter. Blaming them for the upturn in cases is just a way for politicians to distract  responsibility for their own pathetic decisions which have fallen short in protecting the most vulnerable. 

Meet America's Clinical Trial Volunteer Heroes

They are nameless, faceless and unsung.  They could be a grad student, a writer or that individual you passed in the grocery aisle. These invisible Americans are risking their personal health to volunteer for about a 1,000 COVID-related research trials in our country. They are America's newest heroes.

Upwards of 100,000 Americans have volunteered for vaccine trials in America.  Thousands are participating in drug trials in other nations. Without these volunteers, the clinical trials required to approve the vaccines would be impossible.  The research ensures the vaccine's safety and effectiveness.

Let's reveal the identities of a few of these courageous volunteers: Ian Haydon, a 29-year old from Seattle. Sophia Upshaw, a 22-year-old graduate student from Atlanta.  Jennifer Haller, a 43-year-old mother of two. And Elle Hardy, an Australian freelance writer based in the United States.

Their personal stories reflect something about the nearly undefinable American spirit.  People in our country are imbued with a desire to help others out of a sense of patriotic duty.  We don't read or hear much about this trait any more yet it is instilled in all who believe in the principles of this country.

Take Jennifer Haller for example.  She had participated in other clinical research trials before volunteering for the COVID test.  Her son had enrolled in three medical trials unrelated to the virus.  She believes in the power of clinical studies, recognizing their value to protect the lives of others.

When she volunteered for the COVID trial by Kaiser Permanente, Jennifer did not realize she would be the very first patient receiving a vaccine that had never been tested on human beings.  Was she frightened? Did she consider aborting the opportunity?  Allow Jennifer to answer in her own words.

"No.  But not because I am super strong, but because I wanted to be able to give something back and contribute in some way.  A lot of people can't do something like what I'm doing.  They couldn't potentially take off work or be healthy enough to participate..." she says in a CNN interview. 

Her unselfishness is inspiring.  So is the story of volunteer Ian Haydon, who endured a systemic adverse reaction to the vaccine being developed by Moderna Therapeutics.  He is one of three people in the research effort to experience side effects from the revolutionary vaccine.

Moderna, a Cambridge, Massachusetts, based pharmaceutical firm, is using a genetic material that triggers the body to create a protein that trains the immune system to recognize the virus as an invader. Moderna partnered with the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NAID). 

Despite suffering a negative reaction, Haydon endorses the vaccine. "I understand that sharing the story, it's going to be frightening to some people.  I hope that it doesn't fuel any sort of general antagonism towards vaccines in general or towards even this vaccine, " he allows. 

Haydon's concern for others motivated him to sign up for the Phase I trail designed to be the first opportunity for researchers to evaluate the vaccine on humans. Although the vaccine made him sick, Haydon would do it again. "I don't regret the decision I made to enroll in this study."

Spoken like a patriot swayed by his altruism.  Haydon, a communications manager, learned about the study from a colleague who forwarded a link.  Even though he admittedly "doesn't like needles," He immediately applied and eleven days later Moderna contacted him.  Bravery in action.

Sophia Upshaw also leaped at the chance to help advance research on a vaccine.  "It's something I could do," she told Science News.  "We are all feeling helpless and trying to help in any way we can...Everyone is trying to do what they can," she explains.  

Sophia concedes her family was worried about her participation. "They are happy that people are choosing to participate in the trial. They're just not happy that it's me," she admits in an interview.  Her parents were relieved when Sophia did not develop a severe reaction to the vaccine.

Elle Hardy's original journey from journalist to clinical research volunteer was spurred by simple economics.  She was broke.  That sparked her interest in a medical trial for an anthrax vaccine several years ago.   She made a few dollars, but research volunteers certainly don't get rich.  

She was in South Korea this February doing research on a major Coronavirus outbreak and managed to escape infection.  She returned to her native Australia, but eventually flew to the U.S. to continue her freelance journalist career.  An opportunity arose when recruiting began for a Phase III clinical trial. 

"I wish I could say that I signed up for the vaccine trial out of some sense of public service.  But my first response when I was asked to take part in the trial was, 'Hell yes,' because I wanted a chance to get some protection from the Coronavirus as soon as possible," Elle confesses in a story in Business Insider.

Before she was admitted to the trial, the clinic reviewed her medial history, her medications, administered a pregnancy test, measured her blood pressure and pulse and extracted eight vials of her blood. Throughout the trial the clinicians monitored her blood samples.  

The trial was the Phase III test for Moderna's mRNA-1273 vaccine, which the pharmaceutical firm announced results show the drug is 94.5% effective.  Elle was one of 30,000 people enrolled in the study across multiple sites in the United States.  Participants were either given the vaccine or a placebo.

Elle is certain she did not receive the placebo.  She had a slight reaction to the two doses administered by the clinicians. A recent antibody test confirmed she was positive, meaning the vaccine had done its job giving her body the means to fight off Coronavirus.

"I wasn't concerned about receiving an experimental drug," Elle says. "In spite of political and market pressure, I can't see pharmaceutical companies blowing up their reputations by pushing forward with a vaccine that's dangerous to humans."

Ongoing trials for other Coronavirus drugs still need volunteers. Online screening surveys are available for those who wish to participate.  Compensation varies based on the vaccine trial you enter.  Some drug firms offer pay for travel and time involved with participating. 

However, most volunteers don't raise their hands for the money.  They view their participation as a noble calling and a selfless way to perhaps spare lives that otherwise may be taken by Coronavirus. Every American might pause this week to give thanks for these heroic volunteers.   

When the vaccine arrives soon, a grateful nation should celebrate Jen, Ian, Sophia and Elle along with the thousands of other fearless trial volunteers who made mass inoculation possible.  

How To Reform Elections To Restore Public Trust

Growing numbers of Americans have lost faith in the country's election system. It is not a new phenomenon.  Since the Bush-Gore presidential contest in 2000, polls show a decline in voters' trust in the system.  If the process is not overhauled, Americans will no longer view elections as democratic.

This gloomy state of affairs has only been exacerbated by the 2020 election.  Even today, almost two weeks since the national election day, states are continuing to count votes.  National elections are being decided by a few thousand votes in some states, placing a premium on timely and accurate tabulation.

Democrats whine President Trump shares the blame for the strain on election integrity.  They cite his derision of mail-in voting as being susceptible to fraud.  But they have convenient amnesia.  For four years, Democrats falsely claimed Mr. Trump colluded with Russia to steal the 2016 election.

People forget that Democrats were convinced Hillary Clinton was robbed of her rightful seat in the Oval Office.  Even after the Mueller Report found no collusion, a Reuters/Ipsos poll in March, 2019, discovered 48% of voters believed Trump conspired with the Russians to rig the election.

The drumbeat of the unscrupulous media's propaganda about Russian interference sowed the seeds of current public distrust in elections.  A Pew Research poll this August uncovered fully 75% of respondents said it was likely Russia or another country would influence the outcome of the 2020 election.   

These and other polls confirm Americans are suspicious of the transparency and fairness of the country's most important election. Part of it can be attributed to partisanship.  When your candidate loses, you are convinced the election was hijacked.  But as this election illustrates, there are reasons to question fairness.

Even if you are a partisan elated with the election outcome, surely you agree the current process of counting and reporting results adds to distrust and cynicism.  Without major changes, Americans will become fatigued with the election chaos and simply fail to show up at the polls or vote by mail.  

That would be a mortal blow to democracy.  Here are six major changes that should be adopted.  Five of the reforms fall under the authority of states.  If the country wants to restore Americans' faith in the fairness of the country's national elections, it is urgent to act now.   

1.  News networks and online platforms should refrain from calling any state's results before election authorities certify the final outcome.  This election news organizations called Arizona for Biden with Mr. Trump holding a solid lead.  In the case of Florida and Texas, where all trends pointed to a Trump victory, the networks waited longer to declare a winner.  The media cabal does not determine election outcomes. Only state election authorities have that responsibility. The media's anointing of winners contributes to election discord and turmoil, especially with millions of votes in a state to yet be counted.  It is practice that should be voluntarily halted in the public interest.

2.  States should be forbidden to mail out ballots to all registered voters on its rolls.  A 2012 Pew Research study found approximately 24 million--or one in every eight--voter registrations are no longer valid or inaccurate.  More than 1.8 million deceased individuals are listed as current registered voters.  Approximately 2.75 million people are registered in more than one state.  More recently, the conservative legal group Judicial Watch forced California to agree to begin removing 1.5 million inactive registered voters from its roles. The legal organization scrutinized the rolls and unearthed the implausible fact that 101% of California's eligible voters were registered.  Mailing ballots to people on outdated registration rolls is an open invitation for ballot harvesting and fraud. Voters should be required to submit a signed request for a mail ballot, just as they do for absentee voting. 

3. The harvesting of mail-in or absentee ballots should be banned. Period.  Ballot harvesting is a term which refers to the collection of mail-in or absentee ballots by paid activists or volunteers who deliver the votes to polling places.  Twenty-six states, plus the District of Columbia,  condone groups (many affiliated with political parties) to hoover up voter ballots.  Twelve of those states limit how many ballots one designated agent is allowed to collect.  The practice is fraught with loopholes for the exploitation by nefarious political operatives.  There have been numerous convictions for ballot harvesting fraud over the decades.  Every state should forbid the practice.   

4.  States need to recalibrate the voting deadlines to accommodate the realities of mail-in and early voting. Because of the pandemic, mail-in balloting exceeded in-person voting.  That trend likely may continue.  Therefore, states need to establish reasonable deadlines for voters to request and return mail-in and absentee ballots. Some pundits were chagrined over the fact many mail ballots were cast even before the presidential debates. Then move up the debate schedule. States should not be allowed to accept mail ballots on Election Day or after.  All the states need to do is to allow plenty of time to account for distributing the ballots and the handling of completed ballots by the postal service.  

5.  State election officials should be required to begin counting mail-in and in-person early votes as soon as they are received. Three key battleground states--Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan--refused to allow election officials to begin counting early votes until Election Day, slowing the tabulation process.  In Alaska, state election officials spent a week counting ballots cast on Election Day. Only last week did they allow mail-in ballots to be tallied.  As a result, the state only reported results for 55% of the votes cast nearly 10 days after the election. There is no legitimate reason to wait until Election Day to count early votes as long as the results are not publicly reported until the polls close.

6.  States are still processing and tabulating too many ballots by hand, causing inordinate delays.  The methodology and processes for counting and verifying votes varies from state-to-state.  Hand-counting is still used in combination with optical scanners in many states.  In other states, optical scanners verify mail ballot signatures, comparing those to the database of registered voters.  Almost all states use barcoding and optical character recognition machines to count votes. The technology exists to completely automate the entire process, but states have lagged behind in adopting changes, citing the costs.  What is more important in a state than to protect the integrity of elections and ensure prompt reporting of results?  Case closed.

State legislatures have the authority over most aspects of elections.   However, in Pennsylvania even after state legislators approved deadlines, the Secretary of Commonwealth (State) issued different guidance to election officials.  A court eventually ruled against the secretary, but the damage had be done.  

It was the same story in California where Gov. Gavin Newsom used the pandemic to justify issuing an executive order requiring vote-by-mail ballots to be sent to all registered voters.  A California judge ruled after the election that the governor had overstepped his authority. The ruling came months too late.   

Although the Elections Clause in the Constitution delegates to the states primary responsibility for regulating elections, it vests the ultimate authority for federal elections in the Congress.  The Congress has the power to pass laws that can preempt any contrary state statues.  Washington can remedy the problem.

In this divisive political climate, it is wishful thinking to believe any agreement on reforming federal election rules will be approved by the new Congress.  Too many states will resist efforts to institute meaningful reform.  For now, America is stuck with its flawed, obsolete and inherently fallible system.

Surreal Presidential Election Finally Ends...Maybe

Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden declared himself the winner in the 2020 contest as votes were still being tallied at a snail's pace in a handful of mostly Democratic Party-controlled states.  Legal challenges by the Trump campaign are pressing forward today in the midst of the contentious election.

That's the kind of year 2020 has been.  Screwy.  Surreal. Tumultuous. Implausible. Hostile. 

Democrats and the media cabal branding the president a sore loser have inchworm memories.  In the 2000 election, Democrat Al Gore's lawyers were able hold hostage vote certification in Florida for 47 days through legal challenges.  Every candidate has a right to demand a fair and full ballot count.

Even vanquished former presidential contender Hillary Clinton warned Democrats in advance of the vote to not concede the election too early.  The media in its giddiness over the trends in tabulations anointed Biden the victor despite the fact key states had yet to certify final vote totals.  

The media and Democrats were hoping for a clear repudiation of the president.  A sweeping landslide that would shame Mr. Trump's supporters, whom the media mocks as Neanderthals.  Instead the race was tightly contested in nearly every state, except for the ones that have seemingly outlawed Republicanism.  

The latest totals for the popular vote show Biden with a 2.8% edge over the president.  Biden captured 50.61% of the ballots cast to 47.73% for Mr. Trump. As the contest inches closer to finality,  Biden's vote count stands at 75.2 million to 71 million for the president.

In 15 states, including many battleground states, the victorious candidate's margin was 9% or less.  Biden's victory was a narrow escape not a mandate as he and his media allies have contended in their post election euphoria.    

In Wisconsin, Biden won by 20,540 votes out of 3.2 million ballots.  In Arizona, Biden is currently clinging to a 17,553 vote margin.  The Democrat is up 10,196 votes in Georgia out of 4.8 million. Even Nevada, which provided the final electoral votes needed to win, was a 31,464-vote squeaker for Biden.

While vote counting agonizingly proceeds today, it appear pundits will be wrong about the turnout topping 160 million.  According to the Associated Press, 146,285,631 million votes have been tallied.  Even with more ballots dribbling in, it will be difficult to reach 155 million.

However, one election aspect is already clear.  Both Biden and the president eclipsed former president Barrack Obama's record vote total of 69.4 million. Trump managed to pull 8.02 million more votes than he did in 2016, while Biden outperformed Clinton by 9.4 million ballots.

Democrats and Republicans should be embarrassed by the unfathomable delays in vote tabulation.  Some states, such as Texas, Florida and California, handled many more ballots than Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada with timely reporting.  Why did it take so long in those states and others, such as Georgia?

Democrat apologists blame the influx of mail-in ballots that swamped election officials.  That is bogus because virtually every state had more mail-in votes than in-person ballots.  In a nation that birthed high tech, it is unconscionable to wait a week until a final vote can be certified.  We are not Nigeria.

Three states under the thumb of Democrat governors--Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin--issued orders that thwarted timely reporting of votes.  Election officials in those states were not allowed to start tabulating the mail-in ballots until election day or a few hours before.  

There were computer glitches in at least two states, Georgia and Michigan.  In Michigan, the flaw caused 6,000 votes to be incorrectly given to Biden.  After initially blaming the malfunctions on tabulation machines, both states reversed course and attributed the errors to humans.  Interesting.

The company that manufacturers the vote tabulating computers is Dominion Voting Systems, which supplied its equipment to 28 states this election.  There were no other public reports of mishaps as happened in Michigan.  But it fosters conspiracy theories about the fairness of elections.

Even if there was no chicanery involved, the snafu triggered wholesale conjecture about transparency.  The mishap fanned conspiracy flames when an enterprising reporter dug up a Washington Post story that said Dominion had donated $25,001 and $50,000 to the Clinton Foundation in 2015.

For the benefit of Democrats shaking their heads, this was verified by liberal fact-checking site Snopes. 

There were other oddities.  In Wisconsin, nearly every registered voter cast a ballot.  The Wisconsin Election Commission reported there were 3,684,726 registered voters.  The state tallied 3,296,836 votes in the presidential contest.  That's a 90% voter turnout.  No other state came close.  Hmmmm. 

This election also signaled a shift in voting patterns that will likely become the new normal.  More voters cast their ballots before election day than in any previous presidential election.  By the last count, there were 101 ballots cast in early voting, more than double the number in 2016.

Mail-in voting drew both proponents and critics for increasing turnout. Eight states sent ballots to every registered voter on its rolls. The states were California, Colorado, Hawaii, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, South Dakota and Vermont.  Most other states required voters to request a mail-in ballot.  

For all the Democrat crowing, the party performed abysmally in state legislatives races in the Sun Belt and Rust Belt, handing Republicans an advantage ahead of redistricting after the Census determines the number of Congressional seats in each state.  The defeat came despite Democrats' record fund raising.

The Democrats failed to flip a single statehouse chamber in its favor, including in the key states of Texas, North Carolina and Florida.  The GOP appears poised to bolster its number of seats in the House of Representatives and has the prospect of holding the Senate, depending on two Georgia runoffs.

The biggest losers in the 2020 election, however, were the pollsters. Most polling is now designed to suppress an opponent's turnout, inflate candidate spending or deliberately mislead the public.  How else can you explain pollsters continuing failure to accurately predict outcomes and margins?

For example, the Real Clear Politics lists of polling results from various research firms showed that Biden would win by a margin of 11-to-7 percent.  One pollster had Biden with a 12% blowout.  Polling organizations also predicted toss-up races for incumbent Senators Lindsey Graham and Susan Collins.

Both candidates won by comfortable margins, but the polling data incentivized Democrats to pour nearly $200 million into the two races in an effort to flip the Senate seats. This happens too often to be coincidental.  Polling data can no longer be trusted to be accurate or authentically researched.

In the absence of demographic voting data, it is too early to critically analyze why Biden won.  However, certainly the president's handling of the pandemic was clearly on the minds of voters.  Even those who ranked the economy their top issue were worried rising virus cases would trigger shutdowns.

That said, it cannot be disputed that visceral hatred of President Trump, not Biden's appeal, was a deciding factor.  Whether Democrats will admit it, they conspired with the media and social platforms to viciously attack Mr. Trump for four years. No president has endured such orchestrated loathing.

A campaign based on searing hatred recalls the ugliness that led to Hitler's rise in Germany.  Disagreements on policies, style and personalities are natural, but it undermines democracy when bitter acrimony decides elections. In this corrosive atmosphere, Biden has issued a plea for unity.

Americans want unity and an end to the Washington belligerence. However, name a Democrat who called for cooperation instead of resistance during the past four years?  Still waiting.  That renders Biden's words hollow, political claptrap.    

Let's pray that no matter our political choices Americans can still civilly discuss our differences. We don't banish friends or family members who disagree with us.  We don't call dissenting voters miscreants for not seeing the world as we do.  Until there is mutual respect, the nation will remain hopelessly alienated. 

An Election Like No Other In American History

This presidential election is unprecedented.  One candidate has mostly campaigned from his basement, appearing publicly as often as a ground hog.  The incumbent has crisscrossed America in the midst of a pandemic.  More Americans are voting by mail than ever before. And vote tabulations may take months.   

Talk about crazy.  The Coronavirus outbreak turned political conventions into virtual events robbing the parties of must-see television.  The presidential debates were chaotic, raising the question if they will become a relic of the past.  A mask evolved into the symbol of a party.  Forget donkeys and elephants.

Not since the 1918 midterm election have Americans trooped to the polls during an epidemic.  Despite the Spanish Flu that resulted in the deaths of millions worldwide, voters ignored the perils of the contagion and showed up in person to cast their ballots.  Patriotic duty was a higher calling in those times.

The U.S. Election Project, run by Professor Michael McDonald at the University of Florida, estimates more than 93.1 million Americans voted by November 1.  About 34 million voters braved long lines to tap the screens of electronic machines.  More than 59 million mail-in ballots have been returned.  

The data suggests a historic turnout of voters in this presidential election. Based on the Election Project's projections total turnout may exceed 150 million, compared to 138 million in 2016.  If that happens, it will mean 62% of eligible voters will submit ballots.  In 2016, 58.7% of registered voters cast ballots.

However, those lofty estimates are based on past voting behavior when turnout on election day is usually robust. That may not be the case this election. No one knows if the convenience of mail-in voting will alter the annual election day stampede to the polls. November 3 could prove to be a historic anomaly.

There is partisan debate over which candidate benefits most from a large turnout.  A Gallup Poll conducted in July reported 32% of voters identified as Democrats, while 26% were Republican.  However, when you include those who lean toward one party or the other, Democrats have a 21% margin.  

Polls, usually closely watched in presidential elections, have lost much of their cache after their research was thoroughly discredited in the wake of President Trump's thumping of Hillary Clinton.  Pollsters had Clinton winning by a double-digit margin.  Both campaigns are gulping grains of salt with the polls.

Even a few pollsters are proclaiming that if their data is wrong again the industry will suffer a black-eye that will leave permanent damage to their credibility.  Polls have been politicized just like everything else in the country, which accounts for the large dose of public skepticism.   

According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Democrat Joe Biden should be polishing up his acceptance speech right now.  The polls as of November 1 have the former veep clinging to a seven percentage point lead.  However, Biden's lead has slipped from the 10.3% point edge on October 11. 

In the battleground states, the two candidates are running neck-and-neck.  Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan are rated toss ups in the polls with neither candidate holding a solid lead.  In the last election, Mr. Trump picked off a few states that had been Democrat strongholds.

Especially in tight races, the votes of African-Americans and Hispanics likely will tilt the outcome.  There are worrisome signs for Democrats. Mr. Trump captured 8% of the black vote and 29% of Hispanics in 2016, which was enough to beat Ms. Clinton by razor-thin margins in Rust Belt states.

An Emerson College poll shows Mr. Trump increasing his margin with both key groups.  The latest figures have 19% of African-Americans voting for the incumbent and 41% of Hispanics.  If those percentages hold on election day, it will make Mr. Biden's ascension to the Oval Office more difficult. 

The turnout among voters 18-29 will be closely watched too. Former President Obama racked up solid majorities in this demographic which voted in record numbers. However, turnout collapsed in the Trump-Clinton race. The question lingers if the 77-year old Biden can energize turnout among young people. 

Perhaps, the biggest question of 2020 is this one: Will high turnout result in the over representation of older, white voters relative to their share of the population? This group provided Mr. Trump with an edge in the 2016 election. But defections among this group could be the Achilles Heel for his campaign.

One miscalculation by Democrats may turn out to be fatal.  The Biden-Harris camp has turned the election into a a referendum on Mr. Trump's handling of the Coronavirus.  According to Gallup, the top issue with 90% of voters is the economy.  The virus ranks fifth, behind terrorism, healthcare and crime.

Mr. Trump received a pre-election bump with third quarter data showing a 33% rise in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a proxy for the country's economic growth.  The surge means that the American economy has clawed back most of its pandemic losses, sitting now at 3.5% below the year-end for 2019.

Polls do not tell you who will actually vote.  All that matters in every presidential election is which candidate is most effective in turning out their respective political bases.  In every election, there are turnout surprises and this one is guaranteed to be no different. 

However, headed into election day Pew Research Center's latest survey of registered voters shows an 11-percentage point "enthusiasm" gap between the two candidates.  Of those supporting Biden, 57% are "strong" backers.  Mr. Trump fares better with 68% of his likely voters expressing "strong" support. 

If media still matters, then Biden should get a boost from the fawning news coverage his campaign has been accorded.  Evening newscasts on ABC, NBC and CBS are significantly more negative toward President Trump, according to The Media Research Center (MRC).

The research group analyzed every episode of the three networks evening news from July 29 through October 20 and found 91% of Mr. Trump's coverage was negative.  Meanwhile, Biden had a 66% positive score.  Since Inauguration Day in 2017, MRC noted 90% of the Trump coverage has been negative.

When the voting tabulation begins November 3, expect agonizingly slow reporting of results in many states. Likely, more than a few states will be understaffed in verifying signatures on mail-in ballots. Three states are allowing mail-in ballot counting to continue past election day, further impeding timely results.

Both campaigns have assembled armies of lawyers and poll watchers to scour the nation sniffing for signs of voter suppression, ballot harvesting and mail-in ballot rejections.  Both sides already have been tussling in courts over mail-in voting. Presume a wave of court challenges and recounts after November 3. 

In the end, this campaign may not be decided by the voters.  It may come down to the candidate with the best legal team.  This bizarre election will likely lurch into the Twilight Zone.  The winner may not be known for weeks or months.  What else would you expect in 2020?