Monday, December 21, 2020

Santa: Forget the Ferrari; Bring Us Tolerance

Dear Santa Claus:

Despite my semi-exemplary behavior, last year you ignored my Christmas wish for a  661-horsepower Ferrari with a turbo charged, naturally aspirated V8 engine. A red one, to match Rudolf's nose. Perhaps, you couldn't lug it down the chimney.  Maybe elves drive Porches and refuse to make Italian cars.   

I am willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.  Unlike Virginia, I still believe in you Santa. But I admit you are on shaky ground at the Roy residence.  Don't expect wine and cheese this year.  And if you are not wearing a mask, don't show up unless you want Dr. Fauci to place you on his naughty list.  

This year I am surrendering my selfish lust for a shiny red Ferrari.  I wish for something every American needs, especially me.  I am requesting Tolerance.  Note the capital T for emphasis.  We are becoming increasingly unwilling to respect other opinions or beliefs contrary to our own. Our minds are shuttered.

We lash out at those with whom we disagree.  We judge people based on their politics instead of their character. The undercurrent of narrow-mindedness is dividing families.  We ostracize friends who don't support our candidate.  We huddle in social silos, limiting our circle to those who nod in agreement.

People who share our dogmatism are our tribal nation.  Civil discussions are no longer possible between those with differing ideas. We condemn expressions we consider foreign to established norms. Once we were open minded. No belief was considered too eccentric because we valued freedom of thought.

I recall visiting the North Pole one year and being privy to a class on mutual respect taught by Prancer.  I was struck by how all the other reindeer asked thoughtful questions and received sensible answers. There was no paw wagging.  Not one reindeer tore down a statue or looted a North Pole Nike store.

Santa we need the Readers Digest version of that class in every stocking hung by the fireplace.  We don't respect those who view the world through a lens that deviates from someone's idea of mainstream.  We mock and criticize our friends and turn them into enemies over their political choices. 

Freedom of speech has been disfigured to mean freedom from speech we don't like.  There are safe places at our universities where disagreement with the prevailing Woke doctrine is prohibited.  Ideas cannot be challenged because dissent labels the objector as racist, homophobic, misogynist or jingoistic.

We find it hard to trust people who hold contrary perspectives.  If they believe that whacky theory, then their intellect is missing a neuron or two. How can seemingly astute adults fall for an outlandish conjectural theory?  Our fallback position is to mistrust them and their motives for their views. 

Worst of all, Santa, there is a growing tide of censorship in America.  I know you run the North Pole like it was Venezuela.  But for centuries in our country it was considered treason not to allow the free exchange of ideas, even bad ones.  Now our news media and tech firms quash speech they don't like.

I am beginning to ramble. But hear me out.  This censorship is a reflection of our intolerance.  There is an acceptable view, as sanctioned by the elite, that we all must endorse or face searing rejection.  Some even lose their jobs over it.  Can you imagine firing Blizten over his views on reindeer resettlement?

I don't know about you Santa, but I don't want to live in a world where everyone thinks alike.  It would be boring, unchallenging and plainly unAmerican.  I enjoy the repartee of a good old fashioned disagreement.  We learn when our biases are contested.  It provides an opportunity to reexamine our justifications.

Oh, and one more thing.  I wish we could just argue over facts and not squishy feelings.  We are each entitled to our own feelings.  But these emotions should not outweigh facts.  If we make everything about our selfish sensations then all hope of honest dialogue will vanish.

I know folks are now calling for unity. But I am afraid that is code for group think.  This country, despite what many think, has been divided since its founding.  What unites us is our belief in freedom not politics. That includes the freedom of speech.  Freedom of religion. Liberty for all.  Justice and American values. 

Santa, I am over the whole red Ferrari incident.  Tell Virginia I think she is a complete idiot for not believing in you.  That's my opinion and I am not changing my mind.  Geez!  I just remembered I wished for Tolerance.  Hurry, Santa.  As you can tell, I need that gift more than anyone this Christmas.

Your Semi-Naughty But Never Wavering Believer,

Drew Roy 


Monday, December 14, 2020

Scurrilous Media Raises Fears About Vaccine

Coronavirus is the first disease to kindle a anti-vaccine flrestorm even before the immunization is publicly available.  Surveys show disturbing numbers of Americans will refuse to be vaccinated, despite the endorsement of public health officials.  A dishonest media is guilty of swaying public opinion. 

Ever since President Trump spearheaded Operation Warp Speed to jumpstart research into developing a vaccine, a politically motivated media has deliberately draped ominous clouds of suspicion over the effort.  The scientists are being rushed.  Protocols are being skirted to benefit the president, the media insisted.  

This insidious effort, aided by Democrats, inflamed an anti-vaccine sentiment even before the results of immunization trials were publicly disclosed. A responsible media should be educating the public about the benefits rather than twisting the vaccine into a partisan or ideological issue.  It is disgustingly perverted.

Unfortunately, the unethical media has succeeded.  The non-partisan Pew Research Center unveiled a study documenting the propaganda's impact.  In May, 72% of Americans surveyed said they would get the vaccine.  By September, the percentage plummeted to 51%.  That is a precipitous attitudinal shift.

The research discovered that three-quarters of Americans think it is likely that a COVID-19 vaccine will be approved in our country before its safety and effectiveness are fully understood.  Another 78% are concerned the approval process is moving too fast.  That tracks will the media's coverage of the vaccine.

In this climate, the Federal Food and Drug Administration on December 11 authorized the emergency use of the COVID-19 vaccine produced by Pfizer and BioNTech to turn the tide in the battle against the Coronavirus. Vaccine shipments are underway today.  It won't matter if Americans don't get the shot.  

The media and the incoming administration do not want President Trump to get one iota of credit for delivering a knockout punch to the spread of the virus.  They will do whatever is necessary, even deceive the public, to ensure Americans will be skeptical of the Trump-led campaign.

If you doubt the premise, you have not be reading the New York Times, Washington Post or watching the major network news.  No opportunity has been wasted to quote scientists, professors, immunologists and health officials, who have what the media terms "grave doubts" about the vaccine.

Here is just one sample from Alison Buttenheim, an associate professor of nursing and health policy at the University of Pennsylvania, who referred to the situation as a perfect storm of "justified distrust." "I've heard people say, 'I'll get the European one,'" she said, adding others want Anthony Fauci to get it first. 

The naysayers are the grist of the media propaganda mill.  But most experts in the field are excited about the prospect of a vaccine to help arrest the surge of Coronavirus cases.

Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 2009 to 2017, cites the results of the trials as good news for Americans.  "The most obvious is the striking efficacy of the vaccines being produced by Moderna, Inc. and Pfizer and its partner BioNTech. "

He points out that the vaccines are game changers with efficacy levels of 90% or higher.  "A 70% uptake (people who voluntarily take the shot) vaccination could end the explosive spread of the virus," he noted in a piece he authored for The Wall Street Journal.  Endorsements like this are rare.

The injustice of the media cries of wolf is this: it preys on the increasing public apprehension about all vaccines, including those for children.  A study in the Journal of Pediatric Pharmacology and Therapeutics  cited the "parental refusal of vaccines" for children as a reason preventable diseases are more prevalent.

The research included a study that found 77% of parents reported having concerns about one or more childhood vaccinations.  Reasons cited are religious beliefs, personal or philosophical reasons, and safety concerns.  The report mentions public education as the key factor in gaining parental acceptance and trust.

Adults are just as nervous about vaccinations for themselves. Estimates from the CDC conclude in the last 10 years less than half of American adults received a flu shot.  It reached a high of 43.6% in 2014 and a low of 37.1% in 2017.  Those are worrisome statistics with the COVID vaccine arriving soon.

As the nation's hospitals, pharmacies and doctors are poised to begin vaccinations, the bureaucrats are still playing politics with Americans' health.  New York's Governor Andrew Cuomo has already signaled that racial preferences will be considered in decisions about who gets vaccinated first.

This flies in the face of commitments by Cuomo and other health officials that those in nursing homes would be a top priority, since they have suffered disproportionately from the virus.  There are 2.1 million adults in nursing homes, less than 1% of the population, but they represent 40% of all COVID deaths. 

In San Antonio and Bexar County, health officials are lobbying to make the vaccine available to teachers in the first wave, despite earlier assurances nursing home staff and patients would get preference. This stunning reversal is nothing more than a blatant political move to placate the teachers union.  

It is unconscionable for nursing home staff and their patients not to be prioritized for the vaccine.  Shame on those who continue to politicize this virus. The attitude of politicians and cultural elites is that old people are going to die soon anyway, so why waste the vaccine on them?  It reeks of a culture of death.

Politicians are not heeding the advice of an independent advisory panel of infectious disease experts, doctors and scientists. The group, known as the Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, recommended parcelling out the vaccine to healthcare workers and nursing homes first.

FDA approval lagged behind the United Kingdom and Canada, which green-lighted COVID vaccines two weeks before the U.S.  The UK rolled out its vaccination program last week, giving the first injection to a 90-year old woman. However, the U.S. media focused on a single negative to hike fears.

Big media hyperventilated over two Britons who suffered significant allergic reactions to the Pfizer vaccine.  Most overlooked the fact both individuals recovered. Of course, there will be those who endure allergic reactions to the COVID vaccine, as there are with even the most common vaccines.

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates the odds you will have a severe allergic reaction to a vaccine are about 1 in 760,000. To put that into perspective, your chances of being struck by lightening are a little higher: 1 in 700,000.  Don't expect those facts to appear in any American media.

A respectable media would be celebrating the arrival of vaccines that are 90% effective, not unnecessarily raising the specter of health-threatening outcomes.  The prediction here is that the media is setting the stage for the Biden Administration to halt vaccinations for more study to guarantee its safety.

It may sound outlandish but the media's unhinged hatred of all things Trump allows for such dire predictions.  Democrats cannot abide a Trump triumph.  Why else would the media be fostering an environment of distrust for a life-saving vaccine?

Monday, December 7, 2020

Electric Cars Failing To Energize Buyers

A decade ago, a spunky startup company named Tesla unveiled the first all electric automobile.  Despite the media hoopla, major car manufacturers sniffed in skepticism.  Now virtually every major auto maker has debuted its own electric car.  Despite the array of choices, consumers are energetically unimpressed. 

For all the media electricity surrounding the industry, gasoline powered light trucks remain the top selling model in the U.S. with sales of 12.2  million units in 2019.  By comparison, consumers purchased 2.1 million electric powered cars the same year.  Forecasts are for a modest uptick to 2.3 million this year.

Pioneering Tesla is far and away the consumer choice for electric cars. The California-based firm racked up sales of 381,190 vehicles in 2019. Nissan's electric car, Leaf, was a distant second with 130,000 units. Tesla's sales last year eclipsed the entire U.S. electric auto market of 361,000 cars in 2018.

Electric boosters point out that today's market is quadruple the 2015 U.S. sales. Since 2012, the average growth rate of electrics is 25% per annum.  There are an estimated 1.1 million electric cars purring along on streets and highways in America.  

Worldwide, Global EV Outlook estimates that sales in the first seven months of this year topped 2.1 million plug-in electric units.  There are about 7.2 million electric cars operating around the globe. However, it represents about 1% of the total fleet of an estimated 1.4 billion vehicles on the planet.

China has the largest number of electric vehicles in operation: 2.3 million. However, Norway lays claim to the title of Electric Champion. Nearly eight-out-of-every-ten (79%) of vehicles sold in October in this European country was electric.  In total, about 60% of autos driven in Norway are electric.   

The Norwegian government offers generous sale incentives, including eliminating taxes and road fees along with discounts for parking and tolls. Incentives are driving the American market too.  California, home to 46% of the nation's electric vehicles, shells out sales rebates, subsidies and other perks.

Electric supporters bemoan the obstacles to charging up sales: restricted supply, limited geographic availability, lack of consumer knowledge as well as perennial issues of cost, range and charging times.  They insist without these barriers, gasoline-powered cars would become extinct.  

Tesla, the global electric market leader with a 17% share, has a unfortunate history of missing production goals, which limits availability.  The issue of cost, however, is still a factor as new gasoline car prices average $38,000, while the average cost of an electric vehicle is $55,000, according to Car and Driver.  

But averages can be misleading.  A long-range Tesla Model S retails for $81,190, while its top brand scales upward of $100,000.  Tesla has introduced a smaller car, the Model 3, but the price tag is $50,190 for the long-range battery. Interested in an SUV? The Audi E-Tron carries a $75,000 sticker price.   

That is a tough sell when the median household income income in the U.S. is $64,000. 

One positive, despite the price tag, is the range of electric cars is expanding.  Tesla's newest long range battery powers its car for 322 miles, Nissan's long-range Leaf has a range of 226 miles, while the plug-in electric Hyundai can travel 258 miles on a single charge.  

A more pressing issue is the lack of charging stations in the country. Unlike gasoline stations, it can be difficult to find an electric charger unit.  Statista estimates there are about 13,093 charging outlets at grocery and retail stores, and 20,000 stand alone stations. China has 400,000 charging stations.  

Home charging equipment is not inexpensive.  The average cost nationwide to install an electric vehicle charger at home is $1,200, but it may be as much as $4,500, depending on your auto's battery range.  An electrician is normally required to install a 240-outlet, charger and wall-mounted system.  

For most electric models, fully recharging an average  lithium-ion battery will cost $9 in electricity.  Even with today's low gasoline prices, electrics are still cheaper to operate. Industry figures estimate a plug-in electric will cost about $421 annually, compared to $l,500 for a standard gasoline automobile.  

Electric cars are up to three times as efficient as their gasoline-powered cousins. The difference in performance can be attributed by the fact that electric motors are 90% more efficient at converting energy into motion.  And, of course, electric cars run without creating CO2 carbon dioxide emissions.

Achieving the world mantra of "net zero carbon emission by 2050" argues for embracing electric vehicles to save the planet.  But there are some "dirty" secrets about producing clean running electric cars. Hardly any attention has been paid to critical mineral commodities relied on to manufacture lithium-ion batteries.

Cobalt, graphite, lithium and manganese are the raw materials that are used to build the batteries.  These elements are concentrated in a small number of Third World countries where environmental and labor regulations are lax or nonexistent, according to a U.N. report.  Many of the mines employ child labor.

Mining for these minerals creates a trail of pollution from the source as well as the processing upstream.  A United Kingdom study estimated that acquiring the raw materials to fuel the next generation batteries would require doubling the annual production in 2018.

When a new EV appears in a Tesla dealership, it already has produced 30,000 pounds of carbon-dioxide emission during manufacturing.  The equivalent amounts for manufacturing a conventional gasoline powered automobile is 14,000 pounds, Forbes magazine reported this year.

There is also the issue of generating electricity to recharge the EV batteries.  Assuming a fleet of 261 million electric vehicles in the U.S., it would trigger a 29% increase in power generation by the nation's grid and spark a 44% hike in installed electricity capacity at a price tag estimated at $1.4 trillion. 

Most consumers are blind to these consequences and environmentalists are loathe to come clean.  Wider adoption of electric cars biggest hurdle, however, may be convincing consumers to part with their money for a car that does not fit their needs.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, Americans are taller, larger and their appetite for SUV's and trucks is nearly insatiable.  Buyers are looking for extra room, more horsepower, fuel efficiency and lots of gadgets that make their driving experience safer.  Even with hefty subsidies, consumers prefer space and power.

Small electric vehicles are a mismatch for today's auto consumer. Tesla and the other auto manufacturers need to reassess, redesign and reengineer a new generation of electric vehicles that hit the sweet spot with buyers at a price they can afford.  Until then, electrics will be stuck in sales purgatory.