Showing posts with label Coronavirus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Coronavirus. Show all posts

Monday, December 21, 2020

Santa: Forget the Ferrari; Bring Us Tolerance

Dear Santa Claus:

Despite my semi-exemplary behavior, last year you ignored my Christmas wish for a  661-horsepower Ferrari with a turbo charged, naturally aspirated V8 engine. A red one, to match Rudolf's nose. Perhaps, you couldn't lug it down the chimney.  Maybe elves drive Porches and refuse to make Italian cars.   

I am willing to give you the benefit of the doubt.  Unlike Virginia, I still believe in you Santa. But I admit you are on shaky ground at the Roy residence.  Don't expect wine and cheese this year.  And if you are not wearing a mask, don't show up unless you want Dr. Fauci to place you on his naughty list.  

This year I am surrendering my selfish lust for a shiny red Ferrari.  I wish for something every American needs, especially me.  I am requesting Tolerance.  Note the capital T for emphasis.  We are becoming increasingly unwilling to respect other opinions or beliefs contrary to our own. Our minds are shuttered.

We lash out at those with whom we disagree.  We judge people based on their politics instead of their character. The undercurrent of narrow-mindedness is dividing families.  We ostracize friends who don't support our candidate.  We huddle in social silos, limiting our circle to those who nod in agreement.

People who share our dogmatism are our tribal nation.  Civil discussions are no longer possible between those with differing ideas. We condemn expressions we consider foreign to established norms. Once we were open minded. No belief was considered too eccentric because we valued freedom of thought.

I recall visiting the North Pole one year and being privy to a class on mutual respect taught by Prancer.  I was struck by how all the other reindeer asked thoughtful questions and received sensible answers. There was no paw wagging.  Not one reindeer tore down a statue or looted a North Pole Nike store.

Santa we need the Readers Digest version of that class in every stocking hung by the fireplace.  We don't respect those who view the world through a lens that deviates from someone's idea of mainstream.  We mock and criticize our friends and turn them into enemies over their political choices. 

Freedom of speech has been disfigured to mean freedom from speech we don't like.  There are safe places at our universities where disagreement with the prevailing Woke doctrine is prohibited.  Ideas cannot be challenged because dissent labels the objector as racist, homophobic, misogynist or jingoistic.

We find it hard to trust people who hold contrary perspectives.  If they believe that whacky theory, then their intellect is missing a neuron or two. How can seemingly astute adults fall for an outlandish conjectural theory?  Our fallback position is to mistrust them and their motives for their views. 

Worst of all, Santa, there is a growing tide of censorship in America.  I know you run the North Pole like it was Venezuela.  But for centuries in our country it was considered treason not to allow the free exchange of ideas, even bad ones.  Now our news media and tech firms quash speech they don't like.

I am beginning to ramble. But hear me out.  This censorship is a reflection of our intolerance.  There is an acceptable view, as sanctioned by the elite, that we all must endorse or face searing rejection.  Some even lose their jobs over it.  Can you imagine firing Blizten over his views on reindeer resettlement?

I don't know about you Santa, but I don't want to live in a world where everyone thinks alike.  It would be boring, unchallenging and plainly unAmerican.  I enjoy the repartee of a good old fashioned disagreement.  We learn when our biases are contested.  It provides an opportunity to reexamine our justifications.

Oh, and one more thing.  I wish we could just argue over facts and not squishy feelings.  We are each entitled to our own feelings.  But these emotions should not outweigh facts.  If we make everything about our selfish sensations then all hope of honest dialogue will vanish.

I know folks are now calling for unity. But I am afraid that is code for group think.  This country, despite what many think, has been divided since its founding.  What unites us is our belief in freedom not politics. That includes the freedom of speech.  Freedom of religion. Liberty for all.  Justice and American values. 

Santa, I am over the whole red Ferrari incident.  Tell Virginia I think she is a complete idiot for not believing in you.  That's my opinion and I am not changing my mind.  Geez!  I just remembered I wished for Tolerance.  Hurry, Santa.  As you can tell, I need that gift more than anyone this Christmas.

Your Semi-Naughty But Never Wavering Believer,

Drew Roy 


Monday, October 12, 2020

Media's Misleading COVID Data To Indict Trump

Democrats and their candidate Joe Biden have pounced on the opportunity to turn the presidential election into a referendum on Mr. Trump's 'bungling' of the pandemic.  The theme taps into a rich vein of public anger over the never ending outbreaks, lockdowns, job losses and work-from-home issues. 

Understandably,  the patience of Americans is all but exhausted.  The nation's citizens feel imprisoned by a virus they initially thought would be no worse than garden-variety flu. Tragically, some Americans have lost loved ones to the virus.  A return to normalcy appears to fade with each passing day.

Americans can at least agree that doctors, nurses and staff on the front lines at hospitals are the genuine heroes in the fight to provide urgent healing in the midst of chaos, along with the scientists who have waged their own battle in labs to unravel the mysteries of the virus.

However, public angst has been heightened by sometimes conflicting scientific theories and hypothesizes.  For example, on February 28, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Centers for Disease Control Director Dr. Robert Redfield and a colleague published an analysis in the New England Journal of Medicine

In an analysis of widely reported global death rates for COVID-19, they wrote the disease's fatality rate was "more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza." Their report influenced Mr. Trump's perspective.   Hindsight has proven their assessment was flawed, but scientists were grappling with a novel virus.   

Scientists' work was complicated by the lack of cooperation from China, where the Coronavirus originated.  No one blames scientists who worked feverishly in labs to solve the secrets of COVID-19. But when scientists are confounded, it opens the door for the media to create its own narrative. 

The media klieg lights shine on infections (cases) and deaths.  The numbers make scary headlines: Death toll surpasses 210,000! Coronavirus cases soar past 7 million! Instead of putting the figures into perspective through meaningful comparisons, the media flaunts the numbers to fuel public outrage. 

News outlets make no secret their mission to pin the blame on the president for the pandemic. Pundits regularly cite as 'evidence' of the administration's epic failure the following statistic: the United States has only five percent (4.29%) of the population but more than 20% of global COVID-19 deaths.

Your fact-checker can confirm these statistics are true as verified by the Centers for Disease Control and Johns Hopkins Research. However, it is not a useful measurement of success or failure of the administration.  The data point is skewed by the size of the U.S. population, the world's third largest.

Using the same metric (global population percentage and COVID deaths), Belgium's death count is seven-times greater than its population percentage.  Chile, Spain and Britain are five times greater.  Italy and Sweden have recorded fatalities that are a smidgen under five-times their population percentage.

It is a meaningless statistic if you a serious journalist determined to make apples-to-apples comparisons.  But let's acknowledge critics' argument there are countries, such as Germany, who have done a better job in terms of managing the worse effects of the pandemic. Let's test that premise with data.

The statistics listed are from the following sources: World Health Organization, Johns Hopkins Research, Centers for Disease Control, Statista, a global provider of data.   All numbers and percentages are as of October 2 reports.  

  • The United States has conducted 111 million Coronavirus tests. That is second only to China's 160 million, a country three times the size of America. The U.S. has conducted 336,250 tests per one million population.  Israel (402,619) and the U.K. (368,471) are the only countries that rank higher than the U.S. on that metric, which is the fairest comparison. Germany ranks below the U.S. in tests per million (202,724).
  • The U.S. ranks 48th in the world in fatality rates for the virus. The U.S. death rate as a percentage of confirmed cases is 2.87%.  Italy, for example, is 11.2%. The United Kingdom is 9.2%,  Germany (3.14%) and France (5.2%) are among the 47 countries with worst fatalities as a percent of confirmed cases.
  • To adjust for population differences, it is fair to compare the data on deaths per 100,000 population.  The U.S. ranks eleventh in the world on this metric (64.11 per million) with the United Kingdom only slightly behind.  Belgium, Brazil and Mexico all rank higher. Germany has reported 15.21 deaths per million population, a lower rate than the U.S. 
  • The U.S. ranks seventh in the world in the number of confirmed cases per one-million population: 25,554.  That means about 2.5% of America's population has been infected with the virus.  Germany's rate is 3,703 confirmed cases per one-million with an infection rate of less than 1%.  The U.S. has four times the population of Germany and America is more than 20 times larger than the European country in terms of land mass.  
Even those comparisons do not take into consideration differences in culture, democracies, healthcare systems  and domestic freedoms. However, it is fair to point out that some countries have done better than the United States on a few metrics.  That begs the question: What did those nations do differently?

Since Germany is often singled out as a model, it is interesting to learn their protocols were not significantly different from the United States.  Here is what Germany's Federal Minister of Health wrote on the World Economic Forum website about how his country contained the Coronavirus:

"First the German healthcare system was in good shape going into the crisis; everyone has had full access to medical care.  With an excellent network of general practitioners available to deal with milder COVID-19 cases, hospitals have been able to focus on the more severely ill.

"Secondly, Germany was not the first country to be hit by the virus, and thus had time to prepare.  Accordingly, the country's ICU capacity was increased by 12,000 to 40,000 (beds) very quickly."

"Third, Germany is home to many laboratories that can test for the virus and to many distinguished researchers in the field, which helps to explain why the first COVID-19 test was developed here."

To summarize, Germany used its hospitals for the worst cases; with more advance warning than the U.S., it increased its ICU capacity rapidly; and the country was blessed with more private labs than the U.S. to do testing needed to staunch the virus.  Germany's advantages had little to do with its political leadership.

Germany managed its health crisis much the same way as the U.S., allowing its 16 federal regions the latitude to make local decisions based on the seriousness of the outbreak in each territory.  Even these measures have not spared Germany from a second wave of infections now hitting Europe.

With an uptick in new cases, German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently vowed to avoid another national lockdown.  In addition, she announced the country plans to improve its testing and contact tracing system, including levying fines of 60 euros ($58 US) for individuals providing false information.

Ms. Merkel made a political calculation that most world leaders are embracing.  Opening the economy, even a crack, likely will spur more social contact and infections.  However, countries can no longer remain locked down without risking the collapse of their economy, hindering a recovery for many years.

Like Mr. Trump, the German chancellor also has critics who accused her of not doing enough to halt the virus and reopen the economy. Virtually every nation's leader has faced harsh criticism.  It is an outgrowth of the natural despair, anxiety and frustration people are experiencing in every country.

Indulging in political gamesmanship during a pandemic solves no issues and serves to polarize the population.  President Trump can certainly be faulted for his optics (not wearing a mask) and his narcissist bravado.  Many object to the president's preening and exuberant optimism during crisis briefings.

These optics have shaped perceptions instead of data.  Information about the virus is constantly evolving as the world's scientific community increases its knowledge of the virus. Throughout the pandemic, there has been an evolution of treatments, protection protocols, data reporting and testing regimes.   

Perhaps another American president would have made faster decisions that could have mitigated the virus. Realistically, hindsight is a luxury leaders cannot afford during the midst of a mushrooming health crisis. The history of the COVID-19 pandemic is too recent to be fairly and definitively assessed. 

Presumptions about the virus based on politics are unreliable. But regardless, numbers of  Americans will be motivated to cast their ballots for a change in direction in the handling of the Coronavirus. Today perceptions matter more than factual data on most issues. That's just the world we live in.

Monday, September 21, 2020

America Unmasked: Will We Like What We See?

Americans are in for a shock.  When the pandemic mask mandates are abolished, some of us might shriek in astonishment.  We will be seeing folks entire faces for the first time in months.  Family, neighbors, doctors, grocery clerks will look...well, different.  Will we like what an unmasked population looks like?

The question demands serious commentary. The Great Masking of Americans commenced about July 3, 2020 BC.  Before Corona.  Since then, the populace has hidden behind face coverings of all sizes, shapes and colors. Not even virus guru Dr. Fauci knows what to expect when our disguises are removed.  

Imagine your consternation when you realize you must start brushing your teeth regularly.  With that mask cloaking your mouth, no one could smell your stinky breath.  You could eat garlic three meals a day and no one would notice.  When you drop the mask, you will have to relearn to brush and gargle mouthwash. 

No longer will you be able to mask that pimple the size of a Texas anthill on your chin.  Uncovered, male grooming will be in vogue again.  Gone will be that goatee you thought was manly.  Checking your self image in a mirror can no longer be avoided, even if you have Quarantine 15 (as in pounds gained.)

Women who have been wearing makeup but no lipstick behind the mask are going to be forced to add extra time to prepare to go outside their homes.  Some stores are gearing for the inevitable rush by stocking dozens of shades of lipstick.  Lord knows we have enough toilet paper to last a lifetime. 

Without masks, Americans' voices will sound normal again.  Those face coverings muffle our speech, forcing us to practically yell at friends or Starbucks baristas.  Most of the time we nod although we don't understand a single word, even with hearing aids. Seniors will have to relearn to lip read.  

Another dilemma in Unmasked America with be what to hang on the review mirror in your car. For months your mask has hung like a badge of virtuous honor from the mirror.  Now it sits empty.  Looping a pair of your underwear on the mirror seems creepy, but hey, it is a new era in America.

That reminds me: What are we going to do with all those masks once decrees come tumbling down like the Berlin Wall?  Some folks have one to match every outfit, like Nancy Pelosi.  Can't just toss them away. Perhaps, guys could convert their face coverings into a Speedo-like swim suit.  Awful image, right? 

On the subject of mask etiquette (notice the smooth transition), can we just agree in future pandemics it is uncool to wear your face covering while riding alone in your car?  You've seen those goofballs. Are they trying to protect their car from COVID?  I can understand if you drive a Bentley.  But a Honda?

New decorum rules should be established for Zoom meetings.  No one needs to wear a mask for a virtual meeting.  It violates scientific propriety and makes you appear goofy.  Alert: the virus does not spread through the ethernet. The good news is you don't have to wear pants on these video conferences.  

And while we are on the subject of protection, a bandana is not a mask. It is bad manners to wear one, particularly in a bank.  You resemble a member of the Butch Cassidy gang.  Emily Post would never approve of an accessory more at home in a rodeo or at a cattle ranch to be worn at your favorite bistro.  

Mask shaming should be outlawed too.  Nothing worse than when you absentmindedly stroll toward a grocery store and someone confronts you in the parking lot.  "Why aren't you wearing a mask?" the stranger demands.  Uh...I have it in my pocket and I will don my face covering once I enter the store.

The stranger, likely a Democrat, huffs.  "You can catch the virus even in a parking lot!" Obviously, he has been watching too much CNN. There is no scientific research on spreading COVID in parking lots.  But likely a scary study will surface soon claiming parking lots are a petri dish for the virus. 

This shaming has gotten so out of hand in places like California that a Golden State online newsletter felt compelled to consult a former FBI hostage negotiator on how to approach people about wearing masks. You can't make up this stuff folks.  He advised using soothing, non-threatening language.  Oh, goodie!

Apparently, a couple in Manhattan Beach, California, did not read the newsletter.  They accosted two unmasked men in a cafe.  Under California guidelines, diners could remove their masks once their food arrived.  The woman angrily doused one of the men with coffee.  The police were summoned.   

In Park City, Utah, a woman sauntered into a Walmart without a face covering.  She had been exempted by public health authorities because of a medical condition.  That didn't stop a masked shopper from ramming his cart into the woman.  Charges were filed against the male assailant.   

Self-righteous vigilantes are patrolling neighborhoods too.  During Corona, a cadre of snitchers are reporting unmasked violators to the Neighborhood Mask Watch Patrol.  Who knew you were living next door to a stoolie?  Even Never Maskers are bowing to the pressure.

A Pew Research study in June found that 65% of adults said they wore a mask regularly in stores or other businesses.  A followup survey in August, shows the mask wearers are now 85% of the adult population. Mask wearing has now become a normal part of our fashion statement.  

At this juncture, you are probably wondering when the mask orders will be rescinded.  No one really knows except the Dear Leaders In Our Benevolent Government.  But I had a premonition.  I dreamed it would be during the third term of President Joe Biden.  Surely, by then we can Unmask America.   

Monday, September 7, 2020

Unhealthy Consequences of Pandemic Lockdowns

Lockdowns imposed by mayors and governors during the pandemic are fueling a health epidemic. While nearly 200,000 deaths are blamed on the virus, millions are suffering from drug overdoses, suicides, divorces, domestic violence and life-threatening risks associated with scrubbing elective surgeries.

It raises a legitimate question: Did experts at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC),  health authorities and elected officials weigh the consequences of a quarantine to protect Americans from the virus against the ramifications of a protracted, enforced isolation on Americans health?" 

Just to be clear, quarantine-like edicts, endorsed by scientists, were necessary to staunch the spread of the virus in the earliest months of the outbreak.  However, the continuation of solitary confinement-like restrictions and social restraints elevate concerns for a plethora of residual health complications.  

A review of past statements and official pronouncements of health experts unearths evidence a few recognized the danger of extended shutdowns. For the most part, their warnings were unheeded. It is patently untrue to call the mushrooming health crisis a result of "unintended consequences."  

If health executives did not realize the complications, they are derelict in their duty to consider the inevitable problems with elongated lockdowns.  In every crisis, civic leaders and health officials must balance actions with their duty to protect every citizen.  It is essential to equitable solutions.

In the rush to free up hospital beds, elective surgeries were one of the first victims of the lockdowns.  Doctors will vouch that many procedures that were postponed were not optional.  Cancer patients and organ recipients were forced to wait. Their surgeries, inexplicably, were deemed non-critical.  

Breast cancer surgery, for example, was considered an elective procedure.  The American College of Surgeons supported this illogical decision.  Most Americans thought elective surgery meant face lifts or perhaps rotator cuff surgeries that could be delayed without serious consequences. They are wrong.

The World Economic Forum estimates 28 million elective surgeries were cancelled during the height of the epidemic.  The group's study found 38% of global cancer surgeries were postponed or cancelled. The backlog will take at least 45 weeks to clear, according to their calculations.

Researchers at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston analyzed 15 years worth of data on cancer treatment and survival rates.  As an example, the study showed even a 30-to-40 day delay in treatment significantly reduced the chances of survival for colon cancer patients.  

Delayed treatment is not the only cause for concern.  Americans with symptoms were avoiding preventive screenings and biopsies, raising the specter that their cancer would go undiagnosed, thus delaying treatment.  There are no statistics on Americans now facing long odds of survival due to the lockdown.

Surgery postponements could also be one contributor to a sharp increase in suicides and drug overdoses as people try to cope with the pain and anxiety.  Dr. Robert Redfield Jr., a virologist and a specialist at the CDC, presented evidence of the catastrophe during a medical conference on July 28. 

"We are seeing sadly far greater suicides than deaths from COVID," he lamented.  "We are seeing far greater deaths from drug overdose....than we are seeing the deaths from COVID." New data confirms drug overdoses have risen 18% nationally. 

The report was done by the Washington, D.C. based group the Overdose Detection Mapping Application Program at the University of Baltimore.  In summary, the study reveals more than 60% of counties participating in the project reported increases in drug overdoses during the pandemic.

America's young adults have not been spared the anxiety of the long confinement.  A CDC report issued last month found 25.5% of adults between the ages of 18-24 reporting having "seriously considered suicide" due to the pandemic.  A total of 10.7% admitted having suicide ideas.

"Isolation, which is also disconnection from other people, will unravel us psychologically very quickly," said Dr. Kevin Gilliland, a clinical psychologist and director of an outpatient resource center.  "I think we have all been surprised by it." 

Calls surged 335%  from March through July to the U.S. government-funded Disaster Distress Helpline, which offers counseling and emotional support.  Help line counselors report callers expressed "feelings of isolation and interpersonal concerns" related to physical distancing and social confinement.  

No one should be shocked by the data.  In May, a group of 500 doctors wrote President Trump to raise awareness of the "short, medium and long-term harm to people's health with a continued shutdown." In the letter, the doctors described exactly the health problems now surfacing.

"The millions of casualties of a continued shutdown will be hiding in plain sight, but they will be called alcoholism, suicide, heart attack, stroke or kidney failure.  In youths, it will be called financial instability, unemployment, despair, drug addiction, unplanned pregnancies, poverty and abuse," they warned.

Suicide data is notoriously slow to collect nationally so it will likely be years before the country knows the extent of the fatalities.  

However, data exists on divorces.  Legal Templates, a firm that provides legal documents online, found a 34% increase in divorces compared to 2019.  An analysis shows marriages began to crumble as early as three weeks into the lockdown.  A majority (58%) were married less than five years.

A coalition of American attorneys had predicted the acceleration in divorces because of the extended quarantines, shaky finances, mounting unemployment, child care issues and mental health.  Their warnings fell on deaf ears in most quarters.

Likewise, the Center for Battered Women's Legal Services triggered alarms when it called on communities to expect an inflection in domestic violence with so many couples stuck at home.  The group predicted an increase in more violent abuse as the lockdowns wore on.

A United Nations report called abuse a "shadow pandemic" that went unnoticed.  Globally the number of abuse cases soared 20%.  That number may be understated for the U.S.  In one Colorado county, the group Rise Above Violence recorded a 51% increase in calls about abuse and a 25% hike in domestic violence.

As the case with most data, there is a long lag between the collecting and reporting of national figures on abuse, both among couples and child abuse.  By the time the truth emerges, most people will have forgotten how quarantines, lockdowns and forced isolation wrecked havoc on millions of lives.

A J.P Morgan Chase analysis suggests shutdowns failed to alter the course of the virus.  The report states: "Unlike rigorous testing of potential new drugs, lockdowns were administered with little consideration that they might not only cause economic devastation but potentially more deaths" than the virus.

Some reading these grim assessments may dismiss the impact as Monday Morning Quarterbacking or hindsight.  Even if you agree with that appraisal, there is ample proof many experts admonished officials of the impending health disaster.  Few listened and even fewer addressed the issues.

Others will insist the shutdowns were needed to save lives for the "greater good."  But don't all lives matter? How many life-years will be stolen from cancer patients, suicide victims, battered women and people in need of organ transplants? How many young people will develop mental health issues?   

The lesson for leaders and health officials is that consequences of decisions are not to be treated as inevitable.  Trade-offs are implicit in a health crisis, too, whether or not experts want to admit it.  It is a balancing act that demands a thorough analysis before guidelines and shutdowns are ordered. 

Monday, July 27, 2020

Coronavirus: How China Hoodwinked the World

Just when America thought the Coronavirus had been staunched, it has struck again with a vengeance. As cases and deaths rise, the political blame game is in full swing.  Scapegoats are needed for every American crisis.  The media plays pin the tail on the politician. Incrimination is in season.

Many sincere Americans seem to have amnesia about where this virus originated.  It sprung from the city of Wuhan in China and galloped throughout the world.  Few countries have been immune from its deadly tentacles.  Americans need to wake up to China's role in covering up the pandemic.

The Communist regime in China deliberately hid the outbreak in December of 2019.  In collusion with the World Health Organization (WHO), the corrupt government used propaganda to coverup how the virus was transmitted.  Communist censors muzzled doctors and scientists in their country.

To support these allegations, there is evidence from many sources. Beginning in December, twenty-seven people were hospitalized in Wuhan with what was diagnosed as a mysterious pneumonia. Eight doctors in the hospital attempted to warn their colleagues on social media about the outbreak.

When their posts went viral, the Communists deleted their messages. The local police summoned the doctors and demanded they sign a pledge to cease their "rumor mongering" about the outbreak.  This incident triggered a massive coverup of epic proportions by Communist leaders.

Recent medical studies and investigations have revealed the extent of the masquerade.  In its first report, the Wuhan health commission claimed the first patient to exhibit symptoms was hospitalized on December 12.  It later revised the date to December 8 without explanation.

A study published by the Lancet medical journal divulged the first patient presented symptoms on December 1.  That means the Communist government knew long before the outbreak was announced within China on December 31.  What the Communists did next is a stunning duplicity.

The Chinese National Health Commission released statements on January 10 reassuring the public the disease was contained at the same time hospitals in Wuhan were swamped with infected patients. Meanwhile, China allowed citizens to continue to travel worldwide without checking for symptoms.

When word of the pandemic began to seep out of China, the government health authorities denied the disease could be transmitted between humans.  WHO, citing Chinese research, issued a public statement on January 14 claiming there was "no clear evidence" of human-to-human transmission.

It was a deliberate lie.  On January 20, Communist health officials, faced with mounting evidence of a deadly pandemic, were forced to admit the Coronavirus was a contagious pathogen that could indeed be carried from human-to-human.  The subterfuge blindsided the rest of the world.

Once Chinese officials acknowledged the inevitable, they locked down Wuhan.  No one could leave the city without government permission. Metro lines, railways, flights and ferries were shutdown. The regime later extended the strict quarantine to 15 other nearby cities, affecting 50 million people.

Guards patrolled the providence of Hubei, where the quarantine was ordered, to enforce an edict requiring citizens to shelter in place. Violators who ventured outdoors were rounded up and jailed. These harsh restrictions, not testing, were responsible for the containment.

But it was too late.  The virus had erupted into a furious pandemic.  Chinese media giant Caixin ran an expose February 29 outlining how authorities suppressed information that would have alerted its citizens. Caixin reported the government even had DNA samples of the virus but kept it secret.

"Tests from multiple labs in December suggested there was an outbreak of a new virus.  However, the results failed to trigger a response that could have prepared the public," the investigative report concluded.  Caixin, 40% owned by the Chinese regime, showed courage in running the article.

While the rest of the world remained in the dark, the Chinese government filled warehouses full of ventilators, masks, medical supplies, drugs and other materials.  China is the global manufacturer and supplier of many of these items.  It was no coincidence that China was prepared for the worst.

Throughout the pandemic, Chinese officials lied about the extent of the cases and deaths. Researchers who analyzed local data from Wuhan and other Hubei Province cities noticed the tallies did not match the data reported by China's National Health Commission.

In Shandong Province, the local CDC kept an internal record of samples that tested positive for the virus. The official government data deflated the numbers. In Liaoning Province, health authorities were instructed by the government to destroy documents and data on Coronavirus cases.

Wuhan health commission internal documents reviewed by journalists found 91 positive samples were recorded on March 14.  That same day the Chinese regime publicly reported four new cases.  Eventually, the regime ordered all samples dispatched to Beijing for analysis to manipulate the data.

It is naive to believe China has only recorded a little more than 83,000 cases and 4,635 deaths in a country of 1.39 billion.  In Beijing, a city with a population of 20.4 million, China's health leaders have reported 929 cases and nine deaths.  Those numbers are preposterous.

Hong Kong scientist Dr. Li-Meng Yan, who fled to the United States in April, has provided a peek underneath the Chinese government's facade. The immunologist corroborated that China knew in December about the extent of the virus but camouflaged the news from the rest of the world.

Dr. Yan has detailed how propaganda was used by top officials, including President Xi Jinping.The immunologist has evidence doctors and scientists in China tried to contradict the government's false claims about the virus, but were prevented from contacting WHO or Chinese health authorities.

Dr. Yan, who specialized in virology and immunology at the Hong Kong School of Public Health, was given the opportunity to investigate an odd cluster of virus cases coming out of mainland China at the end of 2019. The Communist government refused to allow her to visit China to gain data.

She reached out to her extensive network of professional contacts within China to determine what her colleagues knew about this new virus.  After gaining some initial cooperation, the doctors and researchers suddenly clammed up.  They acknowledged they were told not to talk about the virus.

Dr. Yan discovered "hospital doctors were scared" but advised her that people needed to start wearing masks. After reporting her findings about the virus to her supervisor on January 16, she was warned to "keep silent and be careful."  Dr. Yan alleges WHO knew about the seriousness of the virus.

A frustrated Dr. Yan acknowledged that she suspected collusion "because I know the corruption among this kind of international organization like the WHO to China government and to China Communist Party."  When Dr. Yan decided to speak out, she risked her life and career.

After officials got wind of her suspicions about the virus, she feared for her safety.  Her husband, a reputable scientist in Hong Kong, cautioned her "they will kill all of us" if she persisted in exposing the truth. Dr. Yan made a decision April 28 to leave Hong Kong for the U.S. without her husband.

China can no longer escape blame for the spread of the Coronavirus. Had the Communists been transparent and alerted health agencies in every country the virus could have been stopped in its tracks. Nations, economies and ordinary people have suffered needlessly because of China.

Let's stop playing political games by accusing our own officials of neglect.  Our anger should be reserved for the Chinese regime.  They lied about the virus and hid the facts from the world.  And they encouraged its global transmission by allowing flights to continue in the midst of the pandemic.

America and its allies must not allow China to go unpunished for spreading misery and death. Doing nothing is an invitation to the despots ruling the country to use future pandemics to achieve its goal of world domination through deliberate deceptions, false propaganda and deceitful tactics.

Monday, July 20, 2020

How I Survived The Dreaded Polio Epidemic

In the 1950's, I lived through the worst pandemic imaginable.  Polio, a highly contagious virus that crippled and killed mostly children, raged in America.  Parents shivered in fear their child would be the next victim. Some big cities closed pools, schools and churches.  Businesses remained open.

Despite these precautions, the evil scourge refused to flee. Parents shielded their kids from the knowledge of the deadly virus.   I remember hearing whispers from classmates in first grade.  They spoke in hushed tones about a friend who had suffered paralysis. No one mentioned death. 

With the Coronavirus continuing its deadly march across the globe, there are lessons the world could learn from the battle against polio.  Like COVID, polio was not a new pathogen.  Scientists now know it had existed for thousands of years.  However, medical science was in its infancy.

Polio spread unchecked throughout the developed world. By 1910, frequent outbreaks occurred in the United States, striking in the summer months in large cities.  In the 1940's and 1950's polio killed or paralyzed over a half million people worldwide every year.

By the late 1940's, polio outbreaks in America spiked, crippling an average of more than 35,000 each year.  The victims were mostly kids.  Parents sheltered their children indoors.  Travel and commerce between cities was sparingly restricted.  Fear paralyzed a nation just recovering from World War II.

The prevalence of polio in summer triggered a popular explanation that flies were guilty of infecting the innocent.  Cities began dousing their neighborhoods with highly toxic pesticide DDT in hopes of eradicating the disease.  Yet the number of cases grew larger each season.

I recall the infamous "fog" machines roaring at nightfall in Jennings, Louisiana, during 1951.  Kids treated the evening distraction as a welcome event.  I remember chasing the foggers with friends, inhaling the deadly toxin.  No one ever warned us it was dangerous.

In 1952, the number of polio cases reached a peak of 52,000. Surveys found Americans feared only nuclear annihilation more than polio.  Americans were traumatized.  Parents felt helpless because the disease struck in random patterns. A national hysteria simmered because there was no vaccine.

My memory prickles at the time I saw a boy in metal leg braces struggling with metal crutches.  I cringed at the thought that could be me or a sibling.  When I was older, I met a boy trapped in a contraption called an iron lung. It was a terrifying sight and a sobering reminder that no one was safe.

Then a miracle happened.  On March 26, 1953, American medical researcher Dr. Jonas Salk announced on national radio the development of a vaccine to halt polio in its tracks.  Dr. Salk became an instant celebrity.  President Dwight Eisenhower invited Dr. Salk to the White House.

What isn't well known about Dr. Salk's discovery is that it took nearly a decade to find a cure.  In 1948, he chaired a project funded by the National Foundation for Infantile Paralysis to study polio.  He built a research team and directed their efforts during the next seven years in search of a vaccine.

Salk conducted the first human trials on former polio patients and on himself and family.  There were no government delays or insistence on endless trials to assure the vaccine's safety.  This was a war against a virus that demanded an urgent approach.

In 1954, Salk used his now famous vaccine on nearly two million American school children in what was billed as a clinical trial.  The vaccine was pronounced safe and effective.  Not many days after mass inoculations began, defective dosages of the vaccine were injected into 200,000 people.

Thousands of polio cases erupted; 200 children were paralyzed and 10 died.  The tragic incident delayed the inoculations for a short period.  Parents were undeterred even with the risks. Vaccinations resumed and by 1957 the number of polio cases in the United States nosedived to under 6,000.

I remember lining up with my siblings outside an elementary school for the shot.  The line snaked around the school.  Kids, yours truly included, whined and cried in anticipation of the dreaded needle sting.  Children leaving the school sobbed.  I was suffocated by fear waiting for the injection.

This recounting of the polio virus has some valuable lessons for Americans dealing with today's pandemic.  Here are a few I find illuminating:

Fear is a natural enemy during a pandemic.  We should recognize it and not criticize those who appear to be overreacting.  But in the 1950's , there was no social media.  Today unfortunately you find conspiracy theories, misinformation, anecdotal nonsense and a flood of pity parties online.

The media adds to our natural anxiety with around-the-clock news coverage.  People cannot escape the tide of bad news about mounting cases and deaths.  In the 1950's, there were fewer media outlets and the news coverage was less hysterical.  Media informed without inflaming panic.

Despite the relentless pandemic, the media never engaged in politicizing the government's handling of polio.  The Eisenhower Administration could have been blamed for the faulty batch of vaccine, which was labeled the "worst disaster in pharmaceutical history." The media refused to take the bait.

Another lesson is that vaccines require time to develop.  Anyone who thinks a safe and effective Coronavirus vaccine will be in mass production soon may want to consider the polio experience.  Sure, today's scientists in labs and research facilities are armed with glittering technology.

However, this doesn't change the basic science of learning what triggers the virus, how it spreads, its molecular properties and a host of other issues.  Honest scientists will admit there are still many unknowns about Coronavirus.  We don't have all the answers.  You cannot rush science.

Another feature of the Polio experience was the willingness of parents to subject their kids to vaccinations even in the face of a disturbing setback.  Imagine today if that happened when the Coronavirus vaccine was newly released.  There would be an outcry to halt all vaccinations.

Add to that the unhealthy aversion many parents have to the idea of vaccinations for childhood diseases, such as measles and mumps. As many as 7 of 10 adults in some communities refuse to allow their kids to be vaccinated.  Will the Coronavirus vaccination be any different?

Finally, we must realize there is nothing unusual or new about a pandemic.  The world has lived with far worst infectious diseases than Coronavirus.  For those experiencing it for the first time, it is a nightmare.  The media has failed us by not putting this virus into perspective to calm the distress.

Sadly, more viruses will visit us in the future.  We live and trade in a global economy, where travel between nations is a staple of business and pleasure.  Most diseases are transmitted by humans.  All humanity must accept this risk and insist nations bolster preparedness for the next pandemic.

Monday, July 6, 2020

The Insidious Coronavirus Turns Personal

For months the Coronavirus outbreak has been viewed by yours truly as data.  Statistics.  It was a detached reality.  Now it is personal.  My remarkable 93-year-old mother-in-law Dorothy Anderson succumbed to the insidious virus last week.  It was a sad ending to her extraordinary life.

Mom, as I affectionately called her because she always treated me as her son, resided in a nursing home in Seguin. Despite precautionary measures, a worker at the long term facility tested positive for the virus two-and-one-half weeks ago.  Since that incident, four residents have been hospitalized.

This scenario has been too often repeated in the nation's nursing homes.  According to data, at least 42% of all Coronavirus victims been been residents in long term care facilities.  More needs to be done to protect the vulnerable among us.  No more excuses from governments or nursing homes.

Mom's iron determination was tested when she was quarantined to her room in March.  She could no longer use her walker to saunter to the dining room for meals or stroll the halls.  Her existence was confined a tiny room with a small bed and a recliner.

No longer could family visit her.  Her meals were eaten alone in her room.  She lost interest in reading. Although she had a television, her hearing had deteriorated to the point where she gave up listening. Oppressive silence was Mom's constant companion.

It was a cruel, lonely way to spend what turned out to be her last days.  As the months wore on, our usually alert Mom seemed confused and unable to carry on long conversations by telephone.  Her spirit sagged and you could hear the desperation in her voice to be spared further incarceration.

Her 93rd birthday in April was a dispiriting occasion instead of a joyful celebration shared with hugs and kisses.  Nurses wheeled her to a picture-frame window near the lobby of the nursing home where a clump of family members had gathered.   Mom initially looked haggard, dazed.

Family held signs, balloons and sang "Happy Birthday" to her as she listened on the mobile phone she clutched in her hand.  She smiled, waved and seemed to be cheered up.  But it was not a proper birthday party, such as her 90th where the entire family embraced her with love and affection.

More than a few tears were shed after the family dispersed.  We realized what incredible suffering Mom was forced to endure.  Yes, isolation was scientifically and medically necessary, especially for Mom who had a pre-existing heart valve issue that made her more susceptible to the virus.

Yet for her and the other residents it was more like prison than simple seclusion.  Her world had shrunk to the unbearable.  It extracted a terrible toll on her mental and physical well being. We could all see it and it was excruciating to watch.  No one should be forced to involuntarily endure this.

Her final hours were more heartbreaking.  Last Thursday, Dianna visited Mom along with a few family members.  They waved to Mom as she slumped in her wheelchair in front of the nursing home's picture-window.  Dianna instinctively knew there was something visibly wrong.

Later Mom was whisked by ambulance to the Seguin hospital, complaining of shortness of breath.  Hours droned by before she was given a COVID test.  It came back positive.  She was placed in an isolated ward and given respiratory aid.  Her breathing was labored.  The end was drawing near.

Friday afternoon the hospital graciously agreed to push Mom's bed next to a hospital window so we could say our goodbyes.  Tears flowed as we viewed Mom surrounded by dedicated health care workers.  One nurse held Mom's hand, stroking it gently, sweetly.

We wanted to be the ones clutching her hand  and comforting her.  Giving her a hug.  Assuring her she was loved and would soon be in the arms of her merciful God.  All we could do is talk through the window of the hospital, praying, hoping she could hear us.  She nodded faintly a few times.

As family somberly drifted away, Dianna and I took turns standing vigil at the small window.  Mom's last breath was thankfully peaceful after she had been sedated.  It was the most distressing end because we knew she would have liked nothing better than to be surrounded by her family.

This is a mournful tale but I make no apologies.  Americans need to understand this evil virus has been worse for the elderly, especially those over 80.  Like Mom, many spend their final months, locked away for their own protection, only to still contract the virus.  That is unconscionable.

Workers and patients at the facility had been tested for the virus.  But the tests are not conducted daily.  Workers, especially, should be required to submit to daily testing.  Quarantine is no guarantee anyone's safety because staff deliver meals, check patient vitals and perform close contact duties.

Until this happened to Mom, neither Dianna nor I knew anyone personally with the virus.  Since less than 1 percent of the population has been infected, most of you are probably in the same situation.  We felt removed from this wicked virus, but we nonetheless follow the guidelines faithfully.

Next time you view a headline announcing COVID deaths, remember each one of those numbers is a real person.  Each is more than a statistic.  And family members are devastated by their passing.  They too are victims of COVID.  Not just those whose lives are claimed by the virus.

Finally, another lesson of Mom's experience is that it is human nature to search for a scapegoat.  Who is to blame for her sudden death?  The nursing home? The local government? The state? Washington? This virus is foreign born, transported to our country by unwitting carriers.  No one wanted it.

What matters is that we demand more be done to protect the 2.1 million Americans in long term care  facilities.  Our voices should also advocate for more humane treatment of those forced to be locked in their rooms.  Facilities must find more ways to spare residents a sense of imprisonment.

Anger and blame, no matter how understandable, will not change what happened to Dorothy Anderson or the hundreds of thousands of elderly held captive until they are taken from us.  The search for answers can only be found in faith and prayer.

Mom's life should not be defined by this demon virus.  She had a dynamic presence and was the personification of Texas grit.  She conquered breast cancer, a heart attack, a near fatal automobile accident, two knee surgeries, two devastating floods and cared for her Alzheimer's-stricken husband.

She and her husband John were pioneers in the pecan business, wholesaling and retailing the nuts. They managed multiple orchards, harvesting and shelling pecans too.  Mom operated a tractor, laid irrigation pipe, packaged pecans, worked as hard as any farm hand.

She served as the state representative for the Texas Pecan Growers Association, a rare post for a woman. She volunteered  to be on the city of Seguin's "Welcome Wagon" team, taking newcomers gift baskets and greeting them with a smile and kind words in her unique way.

Her joy and pride was birthing her five children into the world.  She fiercely defended and protected each one.  Raised them to be strong and independent.  Her life revolved around family, especially grandkids in later years. This is how I want Mom to be remembered.  God Bless you Mom.

Monday, May 4, 2020

How New York Officials Botched Covid Response

New York City and state officials, including those in the Health Department, are to blame for the devastating impact of COVID-19 that galloped across the burroughs, swamped city hospitals and killed thousands of its citizens.  Their actions are incomprehensible and indefensible. 

The result of their negligence is born out in the terrifying numbers from New York City, the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S.  New York City has accounted for 30.7% of all the fatalities and 29% of confirmed cases in the country, yet represents just 2.5% of the nation's population.

The latest data from The New York Times paints a grim picture.  There have been 321,833 people infected in the city and 24,576 deaths as of today.  To put this in perspective, New York City has more fatalities than entire countries, such as Germany, Russia and Poland.

New York apologists claim the density of the city and its sprawling transportation are the reason for the excessive number of deaths and cases.  No doubt, density and transportation are unique environmental circumstances to New York City, but also to many major cities around the world.

Officials in New York cannot escape responsibility by citing their surroundings.  Their actions and inactions have left an indelible mark on the crisis.  Both Governor Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Bill DeBlasio have a lot of explaining to do to their citizens.

Months after President Trump restricted travel to China, the mayor and his top health official were telling citizens to take the subway and attend parades.  Both public figures were openly advising city dwellers that the virus was not as widespread as people thought.

Unfortunately, for them video tape and news archives provide damning evidence.  On February 2, New York City Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot urged citizens to "take the subway" go out to their favorite restaurants, ride the bus and attend the Chinatown parade.  The mayor agreed.

On February 7, Barbot suggested the risks of the virus were minimal for New Yorkers.  Her words: "We're telling New Yorkers, go about your lives, take the subway, go out, enjoy life."  She downplayed the spread of the virus, suggesting the risks were minimal.

Not to be outdone, DeBlasio three days later appeared on MSNBC and urged New Yorkers under 50 years old they were safe from the virus.  "If you're under 50 and healthy, which is most New Yorkers, there is very little threat here." He likened the virus to the "common cold or flu."

On March 3, when it was clear a pandemic was coming, DeBlasio took to social media to promote going to movie theaters and "encouraging New Yorkers to go on with your lives and get out on the town despite Coronavirus."  Many New Yorkers followed the mayor's lead.

As if his incompetence wasn't enough, the mayor offended millions of New Yorkers by scapegoating Jews during the virus outbreak.  His words:

"My message to the Jewish community, and all communities, is simple: the time for warnings has passed.  I have instructed the NYPD to proceed immediately to summons on even arrest those who gather in large groups.  This is about stopping this disease and saving lives. Period."

His warning came after a single Orthodox Jewish funeral was held.  Jeff Ballabon, a lawyer and former CBS executive, and Mark Goldfeder, a law professor, scolded the governor, saying "Jews across the spectrum overwhelmingly adhered to the guidelines."

The mayor also was uneven in application of justice, allowing funerals in some areas to proceed while targeting Orthodox Jews.  "Stereotyping a group based on the actions of a few people is never appropriate...and blaming Jews is by definition anti-Semitic, " Balabon and Goldfeder wrote.

Meanwhile, the city's subways kept shuttling 5 million people daily.  It was a prescription for a disaster that would unfold in March and throughout April.  On April 24, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) released a study documenting the subways seeded the massive outbreak.

"New York City's multi-pronged subway system was a major disseminator--if not the principal transmission vehicle--of Coronavirus infection during the initial takeoff of the massive epidemic that became evident throughout the city during March," the 19-page report concluded.

The report's author wrote: "A crowded subway train is thus an ideal incubator for Coronavirus transmission."  The virus continued to spread along subway lines through at least the third week of March.  At the height of the outbreak, the Metropolitan Transit Authority made a fatal decision.

The agency opted to reduce train service to reflect declining ridership, which packed more passengers in fewer subway cars.  The cars were not being disinfected each time the subway emptied out, the report revealed. The agency's decision "enhanced the risk of the contagion," the data confirmed.

Governor Cuomo, who has been universally praised for his handling of the contagion by the media, made the call to keep the subways running. Under New York law, the governor controls the subways.  The MTA in the midst of a surging virus has continued to operate on a reduced schedule.

But that isn't Cuomo's only error in judgment.  He made a worst decision that has led to thousands of deaths. After consulting with his health officials, Cuomo ordered nursing and rehabilitation centers to take in COVID-19 patients.

His logic was that it would relieve the burden on hospitals and thus save lives by allowing more people to be treated.  It backfired with disastrous results.  Placing infected patients with the most vulnerable in society, the elderly and sick, was beyond the pale of comprehension.

The state now concedes that 3,448 residents of nursing homes and adult care facilities died of the virus.  That is nearly 25% of the deaths in the city.  However, the reports have been sketchy leading many officials to acknowledge that the real numbers might be even higher.

Cuomo's move also has to be viewed through the context that the first full scale outbreak of the virus in the U.S. took place in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington, where at least 24 patients have died.  How could the governor and his state health officials ignore the danger to elderly people?

Cuomo's decision was conceived the same exact week that Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institutes of Health's National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Disease, made this public statement carried by nearly every media outlet:

"It's so clear that the overwhelming weight of serious disease and mortality is on those who are elderly and those with a serious comorbidity, heat disease, chronic lung disease, diabetes, obesity, respiratory difficulties."  His pronouncement was made at the American Medical Association.

There are other indictments of city officials. For instance, a funeral home overwhelmed by hospitals transporting COVID fatalities to their establishment, began storing dozens of bodies in unrefrigerated rented U-Haul trucks outside the facility.

The practice only came to light when neighbors complained about the smell outside the funeral home.  Police were summoned to investigate.  They found 50 corpses in trucks and sprawled on the funeral home's floor.  No criminal charges were filed.  It is unconscionable act of cruelty. 

For their parts, not surprisingly both DeBlasio and Cuomo have refused to accept any responsibility for the New York City debacle. They prevaricate, blame the current administration and accuse others of malfeasance.  The may get away with it because most media outlets have covered up for the pair.

At a news conference, the governor was asked directly about his nursing home order that sentenced thousands of seniors to death.  His answer was stunning. "That's a good question.  I don't know."  He turned to the state health commissioner Howard Zucker for a further explanation.

"If you are positive, you should be admitted back to a nursing home," Zucker told reporters.  "The necessary precautions will be taken to protect the other residents there."  Obviously, the number of nursing home deaths are proof the "necessary precautions" were not taken.

On a personal note, I recognize many reading are invested in holding President Trump solely responsible for bungling the COVID response.  They will not be moved by the facts about the negligence of the New York City mayor and the state's governor.  Sadly, the truth no longer matters.

Monday, April 27, 2020

Why Data Is Critical To Arresting Coronavirus

An increasing number of scientific studies shedding new light on the Coronavirus are raising doubts about previous assertions the pandemic is far deadlier than seasonal flu.  While it is still too early to make a definitive call, the evidence should trigger a reassessment of how data is compiled.

The studies, conducted by two universities and New York, reveal far more people may have contracted the virus than official reports of confirmed cases.  In Los Angeles County, for example, a sample discovered an infection rate 40 times more than the cases reporting from testing results.

For some, the research will not sway their opinions about the steps taken by the government to deal with COVID-19.  But data matters when a nation is dealing with an infectious respiratory virus.  Without credible data, how can hospitals and states act responsibility to take precautionary measures?

An analogy would be investing in the stock market with limited or contradictory data about listed firms.  Inevitably it would lead to poor decisions, the kind that empty your bank account.  In much the same way, data is the most important tool for effectively dealing with a pandemic.

Let's start with the three recently released studies.  A study from the Stanford University School of Medicine as of April 1 found that infection rates for northern California were 55 times higher than the official confirmed cases count.  The study was based on 3,000 blood samples taken from volunteers.

The samples were tested for antibodies to COVID-19 using a test made by Euroimmun.  Based on the data and modeling estimates, the researchers estimated that the infection fatality rate was between 0.1% and 0.2%.  The death rate for seasonal influenza in the U.S. is 0.1%.

Another study released by University of Southern California (USC) unearthed similar results.  Using parallel methodology to the Stanford study, researchers estimated the number of infected people in Los Angeles County may have been 28 to 55 times higher than the reported confirmed cases.

On the heels of these findings, New York Gov. Anthony Cuomo announced the state's first survey shows that 13.9% of those tested had Coronavirus antibodies in their system, meaning they had contracted the virus and recovered.  That suggests 2.7 million people statewide had been infected.

That number is far higher than 134,824 cases that had been reported at the time the governor made the results public.  What this study and the two from California suggest is that virus is not as lethal as has been previously reported by health officials but is far more infectious than scientists suspected.

Another factor raises suspicions about current data.  Some states are counting COVID-19 deaths differently than others.  For instance, the Pennsylvania State Health Secretary reduced the fatality toll by 200 in a single day.  The official reason was to reduce "confusion" around the death count.

A California scientist believes some states are diagnosing patients with the virus AFTER they have entered the hospital for another disease.  If the patient succumbs, the cause of death may be the virus or the underlying disease.  It is a judgment call based on no universal standards.

For perspective, in the 2017-2018 flu season, 79,400 people died. There were 48.8 million people infected, requiring 959,000 to be hospitalized.  Those numbers are higher than today's COVID-19 figures. No one should take comfort, however, because COVID-19 continues to spread.

Now that research is piling up the scientific models produced by experts are quietly disappearing from the Internet.  The one estimate that sparked the panic predicted 2.2 million deaths in the U.S.  This same model projected 500,000 fatalities in the United Kingdom.

It was done by a respected authority, Professor Neil Ferguson, director of the MRC Centre for Global Disease Analysis at Imperial College in London.  Prime Minister Boris Johnson ordered a lockdown of the country based on this data.  This is why credible data matters. It drives decision making.

As data evolves, we are seeing a familiar influenza pattern.  Exactly 80% of the deaths have been people 65+ years. The highest percentage are those 85+. Those 65 and older are 22 times more likely to die of the virus than those 55 and under, according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Deaths in nursing homes and long-term care facilities for the elderly haven't generally been tracked by the CDC or other health organizations, which is odd considering the first outbreak occurred in a nursing home outside Seattle. The Wall Street Journal investigated and uncovered startling details.

At least 4,800 nursing home facilities in the country have been hit by the virus, the Journal reported. The number of people infected, including residents and staff, totals more than 56,000.
The number of deaths at nursing homes and long-term care facilities have topped 10,000.

In some states, the nursing home deaths account for most fatalities.  In Minnesota the Journal reported a state health care spokesperson acknowledged that 131 of its 179 total deaths were linked to long-term care facilities.  In Massachusetts, 55% of COVID-19 victims were nursing home residents.

The Journal's numbers were developed by contacting state officials across the country.  Many states did not have the data.  It begs the question:  "How can you stop a pandemic when there is no data to document where urgent testing needs to be concentrated?"  There is no excuse for the lapse.

There are other statistics that have not appeared in any media that offer perspective.  These may surprise some of you because it illuminates a different way to view this virus and its impact:

Percentage of Americans of who have died from the virus: 0.0001352602033%
Percentage of Americans with confirmed cases of the virus:  0.00243353907%

That means 99.9% of Americans have escaped infection and death. The news media would infer your writer takes the current pandemic too lightly.  Facts do not represent an opinion.  If facts offend people, then the country is lost.  Today's journalists fight facts with anecdotal evidence.

There are breaking news alerts each time pandemic fatalities cross another milestone number.  Someone should be asking: "Is this more deaths than previous pandemics?" It is akin to reporting traffic deaths monthly without any comparison to previous years.  Context is essential.

And finally: Percentage of all U. S. confirmed cases in just three states: New York, New Jersey and Connecticut:  45.3% By demanding tests in every state, precious testing kits were dispatched elsewhere when the most pressing needs were in three states. Facts matter in allocating resources.

In times of crisis, the country needs more data, facts and analysis.  If these outbreak teaches the country nothing else, it should be that we need accurate, standardized data collection and improved modeling.  These are essential for policy makers to conceive informed decisions.

Monday, April 20, 2020

Reopen Economy To Save American Lives

Now's the time for the American economy to be unplugged from the ventilator.  Without decisive action, the U.S. will plunge into the abyss of an economic depression that will ruin far more lives than Covid-19.  The longer the lockdown continues the country risks plummeting into financial ruin.

There are growing signs that Americans are fed up with the quarantine.  Protests are popping up in many cities.  For example, in Michigan thousand gathered to protest sweeping restrictions imposed by the governor.  Americans yearn to return to their jobs.  Politicians are starting to take notice.

A growing number of governors are contemplating reopening for business. Texas Governor Greg Abbott has announced a gradual plan to allow workers to return by Friday.  If it happens, there will be domino effect across the country.  States that remain shutdown will face criticism from voters. 

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has raised impossible hurdles to any lifting of the lockdown.  She and other Democrats are demanding a "guarantee of a safe world" before returning to normalcy.  No doctor, scientist or politician can make such a guarantee.  The world, by nature, is not a safe place.

Governors understand better than Pelosi the inherent risks. They are staring at data that suggests an economic Armageddon will bankrupt their states. Even states whose economy was booming before the outbreak are not immune from an epic disaster for their workers.

At the current pace, COVID-19 will trigger the worst economic collapse in U.S. history.  Whole industries are on life support:  Travel, airlines, aircraft manufacturers, oil, hotels, tourist operators, cruise lines, conventions, food and beverage service and virtually every small business in America.

Small businesses under 500 workers, which employ half of the American workforce, are particularly vulnerable.  Most operate on a razor's edge between profitability and insolvency. The new Small Business Administration loan program will help cover some expenses but only about 50%.

Loans will not cover payments due suppliers, maintenance and loan repayments from previous borrowing. By some estimates, these small businesses generate 44% of the country's Gross Domestic Product, a measurement of economic output.  Many are in danger of permanent closure. 

Corporate furloughs are at historic levels.  Macy's has furloughed most of its 125,000 workers.  Boeing plans "voluntary" layoffs to slice its 160,000 workforce.  Walt Disney has furloughed 43,000 employees.  J.C. Penny is cleaving most of its 85,000 workforce. Furloughs will soon turn to layoffs.

The Department of Labor calculated a record-shattering 22 million Americans have applied for unemployment in the last four weeks.  For perspective, at the worst of the Great Depression there were 15 million unemployed.  In the 2008 financial meltdown, unemployment peaked at 9 million.

The current situation is unprecedented in American history. A stunning 13.25% of the workforce has disappeared from the rolls of the employed.  The country is losing 33,000 jobs every hour of every day right now.  Based on unofficial figures, experts estimate the current unemployment rate is 16%.

Unemployment is the tip of the iceberg.  Credit card companies and banks are holding their collective breaths in the face of a expected wave of defaults.  These institutions are extending credit for now, but at some point, borrowers will be required to repay.  Economic freefall will make it impossible.

At this juncture, household and business debt are already at historic highs.  Delinquency on student and auto loans is skyrocketing.  The spectre of a financial pandemic is real.  If you thought the last $700 billion government bailout in 2008 was unfathomable, just wait a few more months.

Economists are predicting the Gross Domestic Product will shrink by 25%-to-50% in the second quarter.  Any rebound depends on consumer spending, which represents about 68%-72% of the economy.  Bloated unemployment data offers little hope for an uptick in consumer spending.

That's causing hand wringing among states because economic decline equals less tax revenue.  An economic collapse will force steep government budget cuts. An even larger issue is state worker pension funds, estimated at $1.2 trillion in obligations.  Most state plans are underfunded now.

The American financial system is precariously nearing the precipice. Even the U.S. government cannot print enough money to paper over the looming disaster that will all but render a recovery a moot point.  These are dire times but most Americans are unaware of the scale of the consequences.

All the focus in the media has been on the toll of the virus and rightly so.  But workers have been forgotten in the stampede to staunch the virus.  No one appears concerned about what will happen to everyday, ordinary Americans.  This has been deliberate, especially by the mainstream media.

The nation is in uncharted territory.  The U.S. has never, repeat never, voluntarily shuttered business activity, even in world wars or during past pandemics.  Those experts predicting a sudden, rapid economic recovery are fool hearted.  A long, painful road awaits the economy and its workers.

No one, certainly not this journalist, is underestimating the risks of opening up America.  Precautions need to be in place: testing kits, thermometers, masks, appropriate distancing.  The timing should be dictated by scientific and economic experts, not by politically motivated guidelines in newspapers.

In states where the virus is scarcely present, people should be allowed to go back to work, open up shops and congregate in churches.  Wyoming, Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota and South Dakota come to mind. On the other hand, New York and California may need months before normalcy returns.

Some will read this and assume your writer has no empathy for the sick and dying.  Believe as you wish.  The real concern here is that by continuing a lockdown America will be forcing millions more than this virus affected to suffer lost of jobs, homes, cars, life savings, credit access and more.

Yet some politicians are huffing the country needs to remain in quarantine until a vaccine is readily available.  That could be months or even more than a year away based on the record of vaccine development for previous coronavirus contagions.  In a year, there will be no American economy.

Presidential candidate Joe Biden famously said this: "We need to accelerate the development and treatment (sic) of a vaccine.  Science takes time."  The nation does not have time to wait on the FDA and scientists to plod along using endless trials before approving any new drug or vaccine.

No one can deny there are risks to resuming commerce.  A second wave of virus cases.  A spike in hospitalizations.  Fatalities may continue.  There simply is no way to erase every risk no matter what criteria the nation uses for business resumption.  Even a zillion tests will not eliminate every risk. 

This isn't a choice between commerce and saving lives as some would construct it.  This is a choice about the best way to spare lives and prevent unparalleled economic agony.  It is not an either or proposition as politicians suggest.  Why can't we have both? We have done it before.

Of course, when the initial state resumes business the media will pounce on the first virus death that occurs.  The cry will be the governor has "blood on her (or his) hands."  This hyper partisan nation knows no shame. Ignore the politicians and media invested in promoting economic bondage. 

When this virus recedes into history, the prediction here is a day of reckoning is coming when American anger turns on politicians, especially governors and mayors who dictated arbitrary  restrictions that defied common sense.  The uproar will be thunderous and will have repercussions.

Monday, April 13, 2020

Will the Pandemic Spark a Spiritual Reawakening?

December 8 the world awoke to the news of the first reported case of Covid-19 in Wuhan, China.  Few experts at that time could have forecast a cataclysmic pandemic that would kill thousands, swamp hospitals, exhaust medical supplies and pulverize world economies.

Facts dribbled out of the Communist regime like water from a melting glacier.  A month passed before scientists, immunologists, health organizations and political leaders understood the demon that had been unleashed.  Each new detail fueled public panic, stark fear, uncertainty and hopelessness.

In the wake of past calamitous disasters, Americans usually have rediscovered God.  Chastened by the horrors of World War II, church attendance skyrocketed.  A Gallup survey reported three-out-of-four Americans were members of a house of worship.  People rediscovered peace in God.

Even after the memory of the war began to fade, nationwide attendance at worship services spiked at a faster rate than the population during the 1950's.  Membership in churches and synagogues doubled.  It was no coincidence the words "under God" were added to the Pledge of Allegiance then.

After the horrendous attacks of 9/11, houses of worship were jammed that evening as Americans cued up to grieve and pray.  Citizens organized their own candlelight and prayer vigils.  There was a somber fog that cloaked  the country, compelling many of us to reexamine our own lives

However, after a few weeks, attendance at worship services lapsed into normalcy.  We retreated to our former ways, comforted by new security measures that made us feel safe again.  God was no longer needed.   

In troubled times, we confront the fragility of life.  The certainty that we too will die.  The illusion that we control our circumstances is shattered.  We come to grips with how trivial some of our concerns have been in light of the precarious nature of life itself. 

These dark days beg for a beacon.  A lamp to guide us through the valley of death and despair.  In the best of times, we find solace in life's pleasures.  We are distracted by what our eyes see rather than the whispered yearning in our hearts for the Creator.  Perhaps, this devastating virus will alter that.

Many Americans are ripe for a reawakening.  Weekly attendance at houses of worship is plunging.  Pew research found 37% of us attend a synagogue or church weekly.  Nearly one-in-three people seldom or never take part in worship services.  Those numbers are rising annually.

Diving deeper into the research, even people with religious affiliations find reasons to avoid worship services.  The majority (37%) cite personal issues with the church, including disagreements with religious beliefs or with church leadership.  Around 16% say they are just too busy.

Others mention personal priorities prevent them from attending.  They specify work conflicts, health problems or transportation difficulties.  This is no judgment about why people choose not to attend.  Obviously, they are valid justifications that make worship attendance impossible.

Let's stipulate at this point regular worship attendance does not make someone a "good" person. That is judgmental.  But there are other signs, besides worship attendance, that signal a glacial shift in America's once sacred tradition of honoring God in private and public places.

The Ten Commandments are forbidden in courthouses.  Crosses have been removed as offensive.  Prayer in public schools is taboo.  Courts have decreed rules passed by Congress trump religious rights.  Bans on public Nativity scenes.  Subpoenas for pastors who oppose homosexuality.

For decades, there has been a secular campaign to strip America of any vestige or symbol of the Creator.  There have been a few courageous religious organizations that have battled the tide.  But truthfully there has been mostly benign acceptance.  A shrug.  A silent resignation.

Will Americans, shaken by the reality of our risky universe, stand up for religious liberty? Will they will again flock to houses of worship?  Will they become kinder, more compassionate, less selfish and lift their voices in praise of God?

If not now, when?

We have endured the agony of being separated from loved ones drawing their last breath.  Funerals are cancelled by social distancing, aggravating inconsolable grief.  Human lives have been reduced to government statistics. Numbing isolation threatens our collective mental health.

During the outbreak, Americans have placed their faith in scientists and the government.  The common plea is for a miracle vaccine that will chase the virus into oblivion.   God is nowhere in the public discussion. We should first and foremost focus our faith in God, the ultimate miracle worker.

If anything good can emerge from these virus, a revival of faith would be a welcome outcome.  This abhorrent virus won't be he last microbe to scourge the world.  Future ones might be worse.  Let's not wait for the next global affliction or terrorist strike to turn toward our Creator in faithful worship.  

Monday, March 23, 2020

Covid 19: The Facts The Media Won't Report

Americans grappling with the Coronavirus need facts instead of half-baked worst case scenarios.  The news media in collusion with politicians continue to sow seeds of fear, paralyzing the nation, promoting hoarding of food and condemning anyone voicing optimism instead of gloom.

The disinformation avalanche among dubious scientists, politically active doctors, past administration officials, uninformed journalists and the World Health Organization (WHO) has overwhelmed the public with a dizzying array of conflicting reports and dire projections.

In point of fact, the head of WHO has warned of a massive "infodemic", an overabundance of data and information, some accurate and most inaccurate, that makes it difficult for "people to find trustworthy sources and reliable guidance when we need it."  Amen.

Most worst case scenarios are based on models that assume minimal government intervention, hospital bed shortages, doctors too sick to treat patients, lack of a strict quarantine and no school closures.  Using this model, a European journalist projected 100 million cases.  This is not credible.  

The news media is the most unreliable source of unbiased, scientific information and data.  My advice is tune it out.  Turn to the experts in infectious diseases.  Those include Johns Hopkins University, the National Institute of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

Using the data from those three sources, here are facts the mainstream media, including Fox News, have not reported in their haste to dish up around-the-clock, audience boosting, Apocalyptic  perspectives on COVID-19. Note: All data below is as of March 21 from CDC, Johns Hopkins and NIH.
  •  83% of all the deaths reported have been in just four countries: China, Italy, Spain and Iran.
  • 57% of all the cases worldwide have been reported in those same four countries.
  • 94,176 individuals globally have recovered from the virus without complications.
  • The fatality rate worldwide is 0.4%, one of the least lethal viruses in recent times.
  • The worldwide death rate for those 80+ is 14.8%.
  • Infected patients over age 65 account for 80% of U.S. deaths.
  • The current fatality rate in the U.S. is .01%, identical to the seasonal flu deaths (.01%).
Those highest risk of infection are elderly, especially those with with preexisting conditions.  Here are the death rates for those seniors, calculated by Worldometer a respected reference website. The stats are fatality rates for those infected with the virus with the following preexisting conditions:
  • Cardiovascular Disease  13.2%
    • Diabetes 9.2%
    • Hypertension  8.4%
    • Chronic Respiratory Disease 8.0%
    • Cancer 7.6%
    These are facts not hyperbole.  The numbers cited above clearly indicate most Americans are not at a high risk even if that contract the virus. That fact has been absent from most news articles and from many medical experts rhapsodizing on television.

    Yet alarmists persist, in spite of the statistics, claiming this virus is more deadly than any we have faced.  This is patently false.  The SARS death rate was 9.6% and MERS was 34%.  Even though COVID 19 rates are in flux, credible sources put the worldwide fatality rate at 0.4%. 

    In an effort to make the current crisis appear likely to escalate, some health officials are warning this could be another 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic that killed 50 million people worldwide and infected 500 million individuals.  About 675,000 Americans died of complications from the Spanish Flu.

    Certainly, those are frightening numbers.  However, what the experts do not tell you is that comparing the health care in 1918 to today is akin to the comparing automobiles from that era to the present. To being with, there were no vaccines and no antibiotics to fight the infection in 1918.

    Health care was limited to non-pharmaceutical intervention.  In other words, people sheltered in place.  That was the only available tool to fight the spread of the disease.  The number of hospitals in the U.S. in 1918 is dwarfed by the modern facilities we have today in the country.

    Any "expert" using the 1918 virus as a predictor of what will happen in America today is an irresponsible charlatan.  

    The view of many politically motivated journalists and those who have lobbied for a Draconian lockdown of America can be summarized in this opinion piece from Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan who penned the following:

    "Is all this an overreaction?  If it is, we'll recover.  If we're too cautions we'll realize after a while and we'll all get angry at the economic cost of it and have big arguments and fights.  But we'll be here to argue and fight."

    This tortured logic, which has been repeated often by politicians, exhibits a callous disregard for the millions of Americans who will be laid off, unable to feed their families, suffer economic hardships, forfeit their life savings in the stock market, lose their homes or be forced on welfare.

    These average Americans are viewed by the media as collateral damage. But isn't it interesting that every sports superstar or Hollywood celebrity who contracts the virus becomes "breaking news."  These folks have fortunes to sustain them whatever the adversity.  Others have no safety net. 

    While the media and critics continue to complain about the lack of a vaccine, here is a sobering observation from Johns Hopkins.  "A new vaccines might be at least 12 to 18 months away though new drug treatments will likely come sooner," the School of Public Health reported on its website.

    The good news is that Johns Hopkins is leading a pioneering effort using plasma recovered from survivors of the Coronavirus as a treatment for those infected as well as a prevention of infection.  With cooperation from the FDA, the plasma treatment could be rolled out in three to four weeks.

    This strategy is already being used in China, which has shipped plasma to Italy. Johns Hopkins experts say the plasma is very safe because it is screened for bloodborne pathogens.  Blood transfusions are some of the most regulated industries in the U.S. and one of the safest.

    Early results also show that a common drug used to treat malaria offers promise in arresting he Coronavirus.  The drug has the advantage of already being approved by the FDA and supplies are readily available throughout the country.  Testing and trails have begun in earnest.  

    These examples are evidence that America is not standing still waiting for some miracle to spare us from the Coronavirus.  The entire scientific community, pharmaceutical companies and global healthcare institutions are actively racing to find a treatment and a vaccine.

    Americans need to be informed that once this epidemic subsides that the risk of future pandemics is mushrooming every year with global business and pleasure travel, worldwide supply chains where medicines and health products and other goods are regularly transported across borders.

    The incidence of infectious disease calamities has more than doubled from the 1940's to the 1960's, according to EcoHealth Alliance, a New York based nonprofit research group.  The rates of such incidents surged in the 1980's with the advent of HIV and is escalating, the group reports.

    This century alone the world has confronted a legion of viral scares, including SARS in 2002 and 2003, the swine flu (H1N1) in 2009, MERS in 2012, Ebola in 2014 to 2016, Zika in 2015 and Dengue fever in 2016. The United States survived these outbreaks without a nationwide lockdown.

    America and the world needs a post mortem after the Coronavirus subsides to assess how we dealt with the pandemic without playing the blame game.  What can we do next time to minimize economic and social disruption and still protect people?  That should be the objective of any plan.      

    If there is a beacon of hope in this current panic, it has been the response of average Americans.  Teachers are preparing lunches for school children who depend on this meal. One Texas school teacher is hosting a Facebook video to teach homebound kids to play chess.

    Restaurants are offering take-out food to keep their businesses running and provide employment for their hourly wage workers.  Students in a small Nebraska community are making get well cards for those with the virus.  Pharmacies are open, dispensing critical medications to sick people.  

    The Food Bank and extraordinary volunteers are distributing groceries to shut-ins and the elderly.  Churches are conducting online services.  I have observed kindnesses of complete strangers who share their food, toilet paper and disinfectants.  This should make everyone proud to be an American.

    And let's not forget the real heroes--those doctors, nurses, medical assistants, hospital emergency room personnel and other healthcare workers who are on the frontlines in the battle against this virus. They have put their own health at risk to save others.  There is no more noble sacrifice.    

    Our resilient nation will survive this emergency just as we always have.  Put your faith in God and not in the government to end this trauma.  He remains our eternal hope. This trial too shall pass. After it does, let a grateful nation bend its knees in praise of our Creator.

    Monday, March 16, 2020

    An Open Letter To My Fellow Americans

    An Open Letter To My Fellow Americans:

    Never in seven decades have I witnessed such panic, hysteria and anxiety.  This assessment is from a person who lived through the Cuban Missile Crisis, the Vietnam War, the attacks of 9/11, the swine flu, SARS and Ebola pandemics and the deadliest U.S. influenza season (2016-2017) in four decades.

    The America I know has always risen above any crisis with unmistakable resilience to carry on with life whatever the peril.  It is part of our DNA as Americans that in the darkest of hours we the people are a shining beacon of optimism.  Our indomitable spirit is what makes us Americans.

    But since late January America has morphed into pessimistic defeatists, paralyzed by dread and delirium. This in no way demeans the health threat of the COVID-19 virus.  It is real, not some hoax.  However, the reaction--far from measured- has been disproportionate to the facts on the ground.

    The following statistics are from the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center as of March 16:

    There have been 3,707 cases of the virus reported in 46 states and D.C.  There have been 69 fatalities. Most of the deaths (22) occurred in nursing homes in Washington state. King County in the state is the U.S. epicenter of the virus, where 35 deaths have been reported.

    The scientific jury is still out on the death rate because many patients recover before they are even diagnosed with the virus.  That has made it difficult to judge how lethal the pandemic may be.  Therefore, speculation has replaced facts in raising alarm among the American public.

    Perspective and context are needed most in the onslaught of incendiary news media reporting. The H1N1 Virus pandemic of 2009, commonly known as swine flu, resulted in the deaths of 12,469 Americans.  Sixty-one million contracted swine flu and 273,304 were hospitalized.

    At the start of the outbreak, President Obama announced it was a health emergency.  However, he did not declare a national emergency until October 24, 2009, after at least 1,000 deaths had been reported in the U.S.  Viruses are not political in nature.  To treat disease as such is ghoulish.

    To add further context, in 2009 CDC initially suggested districts to only shut their doors if a student contracted the disease but later reversed course and ordered schools closed. A swine flu vaccine did not even begin CDC trials until July 22, well after the virus had run its course.

    No sporting leagues cancelled seasons.  Broadway did not go dark.  Conventions went on as planned.  America did what it always does.  People took precautions but refused to be cowed by the epidemic. In contrast, COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented shutdown of every aspect of American life.

    How can this be justified?  It can not based on the known risks and facts.  But today's political climate is all about virtue signaling.  Once one sports league capitulated, the others acted like lemmings so as not to appear insensitive to the health issue.  It is a sign of today's cultural correctness.

    Churches are scrubbing services.  Schools are shuttering.  St. Patrick's Day parades are erased. Restaurants and bars are closed.  The list goes on and on.  Each day brings another cancellation--not out of an "abundance of caution"--but borne out of a fear of lawsuits if opening triggers an outbreak.

    Despite the lockdown of America, it has not quelled media speculation.  The once respected New York Times ran a scare mongering headline on Friday about the "Worst Case Estimates of the U.S. Coronavirus Deaths."  Other Chicken Littles are reporting the death count could soar to 150,000.

    Despite the deliberately provocative reporting, the facts remain that most cases of the coronavirus are mild.  Most people infected with the flu like disease recover.  The majority of deaths have been in people 80+ years and older in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

    Yet millions of my fellow Americans are stockpiling toilet paper, disinfectant wipes, bottled water, hand sanitizers and respiratory masks.  In trips to three local grocery outlets this week, I found rows and rows of empty shelves where these products once were stocked.

    The same news media that has driven the panic buying now has taken to scoffing at those who are swarming stores in a frenzied search for supplies.  What did they expect?  If you treat a pandemic as the Apocalypse, naturally people will react as if he world is nearing its end.

    Americans have watched in horror as the stock market plummeted on panic selling.  Their companies have issued warnings of dire economic times ahead.  Financial analysts are predicting an economic Armageddon that will fuel a nightmarish recession.  Any wonder Americans are worried?

    This man-made sabotage of the American economy will hurt the people who can least afford to do without a paycheck.  Hourly wage earners are the most vulnerable, particular those in food and beverage service industries and small businesses.  They may never recover economically. 

    In our global economy, we can expect foreign born viruses to become a regular fixture of our world.  Will our current response to COVID-19 become the new normal?  I pray not because it means constant disruption, chaos and economic cataclysm.  Viruses will always be with us. 

    I have a suggestion: let's issue a declaration of sanity in dealing with this virus.  Prudent steps should be taken.  But Americans do not succumb to boogiemen.  After September 11, we refused to be rattled by terrorists who killed 3,000 of our fellow citizens in a single day.  Remember?

    After a temporary pause, Major League Baseball, the National Football League and Broadway were open for business.  The president encouraged Americans to demonstrate to those who would murder us that we would not be terrorized.  We would live unafraid, unbowed and free from fear.

    This is unscientific research but I went to a high school baseball game right after the major sports leagues dove off the cliff.  The adults were joking about the pandemonium over the virus.  No one wore a mask, or refused to sit next to a stranger but many carried hand sanitizers. Folks were calm.

    I believe most Americans actually feel the same about this virus.  They are the ones who don't spend all day in front of a television watching cable news. They don't wait for the government to tell them what to do in a crisis.  They use common sense and are not consumed by an unhealthy state of anxiety.

    President Franklin D. Roosevelt, in his first inaugural address in 1933, reassured a deeply troubled nation in the throes of economic despair over the Great Depression,  that the "only thing we had to fear was fear itself."

    That was wise counsel 87 years ago.  The president's words are even more appropriate today.

    Respectfully,

    Drew Roy