2020 is now officially a four-number, vulgarism. People refer to their Congressional representative as a 2020 hole. The neighbors dog deposited a pile of 2020 in your yard. Preachers warn congregants they will go to 2020 unless they mend their ways. 2020 was such $%#@! Good 2020 riddance.
Fortunately, the calendar now reads 2021. It's a New Year. But will it be any better than 2020? That's the question your favorite prognosticator ponders as he makes his annual predictions. Some readers chide your journalist for gazing into the future when so often he has been slightly, occasionally wrong.
However, I would point out many celebrated economists, Wall Street wizards, respected scientists, data modelers and captains of industry flubbed 2020. Every one of them still hold their jobs despite their record of failed forecasts. Cut me some slack. I deserve at least an opportunity to match their ineptitude.
Normally, your forecast analyst offers ten predictions. But, if you haven't heard, 2020 was an unusual year. A break from tradition seemed appropriate to remove the stench of 2020. With that introduction and without further 2020, here are the Top 12 Predictions for 2021:
1. Churches will continue to be the target of forced closures and limited attendance until at least the summer. When churches and synagogues finally are able to welcome back flocks, attendance will hover around 70% of pre-pandemic rates as believers settle into a comfortable routine of online worship.
2. Only 60% of Americans eligible to receive the new Coronavirus vaccines will get the shot. As a result, businesses and state governments will require all employees to be vaccinated. The new administration will issue an order mandating all Americans be vaccinated, but it will be overturned in court.
3. Government certificates proving you have been vaccinated will be required to travel, go to college, dine inside restaurants, visit hospitals and attend movies. A cottage industry will spring up offering fake certificates and schemes will emerge offering Americans a way to jump ahead of others for a vaccination.
4. Big movie theaters will become rare after months of closures and empty seats force the entertainment industry to shutdown 65% of its facilities. In their place, smaller theaters that serve food will arise from the lockdown ashes. Most movies and even some Broadway plays will debut on streaming services.
5. Hollowed out office buildings and malls will become permanent symbols of the wreckage of the Coronavirus. Leased space buildings will face vacancy rates of more than 32%. Work-from-home will become the norm, fueling skyrocketing sales of office furnishing and remodeling for residences.
6. Local and national retail businesses will remain permanently crippled as online retailers Amazon, Walmart and others gobble up most of that segment of the economy. Online sales will rise from 16.1% to 27.4% of all retail sales in 2021, the largest annual increase in a decade.
7. President Biden, citing the rise of a new super-spreader COVID variant, will order strict nationwide lockdowns in January as cases and deaths continue to spiral. The president will mandate masks, initiate invasive contact tracing and demand Americans shelter in place for the duration of a "dark" winter.
8. Lockdowns and the issuance of more government stimulus checks will drive unemployment into double digits. The Dow will decline by 16.9%; the S&P will fall 11%; the NASDAQ will increase 19% as big tech reaps the benefits of restrictions. The annual Gross Domestic Product for 2021 will be 2.9%.
9. Prosecutors in the cases against Hunter Biden, who is charged with tax evasion and money laundering, will be replaced by the incoming president. Hunter will pay a $5 million fine to settle the charges, which mostly stem from his dealings with China. The media will drop the matter to protect President Biden.
10. An already throttled travel industry slumbers as big cruise ships are dry docked, international flights are scuttled and hotels operate with 60% vacancies. Airbnb will double its revenues. Domestic travel returns in summer, however, airlines slash flight schedules. Travel industry recovery stalls until 2022.
11. Schools in most Democrat-run states and cities will remain closed except for virtual learning for the remainder of the year as powerful teachers unions balk at reopening without pay raises and the requirement of vaccinations of all children. Enrollment in private schools will leap 22% during the year.
12. Independent restaurants, which comprise 70% of all eateries, will suffer losses as restrictions limit indoor dining. A staggering 75% of all independent restaurants will shutdown by the end of 2021. Those that remain will have a tough time rehiring furloughed staff receiving unemployment benefits.
Some of you are already shaking your heads in doubt. You may be thinking 2021 will be the dawning of a new era of prosperity as the economy reopens, the virus is reeled under control and the nation breathes a sigh of relief with a new administration in Washington. Your vision may indeed be 2020.
I have no desire for another year of crisis. I honestly hope my forecasts are spectacularly wrong. However, that dusty old crystal ball of mine follows the mists of the future wherever it leads. Don't blame me. I believe in the science of forecasting and I donned a mask to protect myself from a computer virus.
That makes me above reproach.
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