The presidential race is thundering toward the finish line in the most inconceivable American election. Donald Trump has been the target of two assassination attempts. Kamala Harris carries the Democratic Party banner without the benefit of being elected by primary voters.
Acts of political violence are a stain on American politics since the assassination of President Abraham Lincoln. Through the decades, three presidents have been killed and there have been seven presidential assassination attempts and the murder of Democrat candidate Robert F. Kennedy in 1968.
Another distinction of this election, Trump is the only presidential candidate who is a convicted felon. Although even Democrats have dropped the reference because independents and Republicans are convinced the verdict was produced by a sham trial, it hovers over the presidential race.
Vice President Harris holds the Democratic Party distinction of the only nominee to not receive a single primary vote since Vice President Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Humphrey's nomination at the Democratic National Convention ended with his defeat to Richard Nixon.
President Joe Biden after campaigning for more than a year dropped out on July 21, barely four months until election day. A humbling debate performance cleared the way for Harris to assume the mantle. Theories continue to ruminate about what prompted Biden's abrupt about face.
With the election in the homestretch, the polls continue to show the outcome will likely be decided by hundreds of thousands of voters in a few so-called swing states. On the bellwether list: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada.
In 2020, Biden's victory in those states cleared the way for his election. He won those six states by a total popular vote of 312,362. In Pennsylvania, the Democrat won by 81,660 votes out of more than 3 million ballots case. He carried Wisconsin by a slimmer margin, 20,682 votes and Nevada by 33,596.
Razor-thin vote margins in Arizona (10,457) and Georgia (11,779) benefited Biden. Even Michigan, a charter member of the Big Blue Wall named for traditionally voting Democrat, gave Biden a comparatively slim edge of 154,188 votes out of more than 5 million ballots.
Consider that the 2020 race was decided by less than 400,000 votes out of 158 million ballots cast. Turnout was seven percentage points higher than the 2016 election. A record 66% of citizens voted in the election. Some experts are forecasting higher turnout this cycle.
The two candidates are crisscrossing paths with each other ending up in the same state on the same day as they deliver their closing arguments in swing state voters. A shift in a scintilla of votes could end up titling the election to Harris or Trump. Dueling camps have bombarded the air waves with attack ads.
What started out as an election about issues, has descended into the junk yard politics mantra: Negative sells. Trump is painted as Adolf Hitler, who murdered six million Jews and started a world war. The caricature has been responsible for fueling a toxic political divide that threatens to rupture the country.
Trump has branded Harris a socialist and critiqued her intellect in demeaning language. His early reference to Harris' racial ethnicity cringed even his supporters. Both candidates are covered in mud and the voters are left in the quandary of selecting the person with the fewest smudges.
Unsurprisingly, national polls reveal the race is deadlocked with less than two weeks until Election Day. Looking under the hood of the polls, there are positive and negative signs for both campaigns. Polls agree on one point: Harris and Trump both have above average unfavorable ratings.
Worrisome for the team Harris is that she is underperforming with key demographics that were responsible for Biden's narrow win. She has lost support among Hispanics, African-Americans, Asians, particularly men in those demographics. If the trend continues, it will not bode well for Harris.
Trump is behind with college graduates and suburban women. Abortion is proving to be an issue that still moves the needle with swaths of voters across party lines. It was a crucial wedge issue in the 2022 midterms and could once again cleve Trump support among independents.
Mail-in voting, a tool used extensively during the Covid-era election of 2020, is trending lower. It turned out to be a boon for Democrats, but at least early signs don't indicate it will be as robust this year. However, early voting is on pace to break records, galloping ahead of 2020 and 2016 levels.
Political watchers are noticing early voting among Republicans is outperforming Democrats, a once unthinkable outcome. Republicans have traditionally preferred to cast ballots on Election Day.
On election night, the early results in Pennsylvania will offer a clue to the remainder of the evening. Biden banked 36.2 percent more early votes than Trump in 2020 to offset Republicans voting advantage on Election Day. If Harris falls below 25%, it will be a clunker of a start to a long agonizing evening.
The final tally could take days, since Arizona and Nevada are notoriously slow reporting results. Whatever the outcome, expect fireworks from the losing side. Candidates have accused each other of being a threat to Democracy. There will be no gracious concession speeches.
Adding to the turbulence is revelations by U.S. spy agencies that foreign actors are using covert influence campaigns to interfere in the election. Intelligence indicates Russia, Iran and China are sewing discord and disinformation. Expect the losing candidate to point to election interference as a factor in their defeat.
Campaign rancor and the divisive cultural chasm have the makings of a potential power keg in the election aftermath. The nation's temperature is north of 98.6 degrees. Let's pray for decorum in the name of saving democracy. We should all want a peaceful end to this fractious election.
