Futuristic predictions are notoriously goofed. A glance in the rear view mirror of history illuminates the hazard of forecasting. Consider in 1998 a well known futurist boldly prophesied that human life expectancy would rise to "over 100" by 2019. He missed by a whopping 27.4 years.
In a 1994 book, a British commentator and editor foresaw the retirement age would inch up to age 70. He was off by five years. In the U.S. the average retirement age for men is 65 and 63 for women. A few European countries have upped the retirement age to 67.
And there are more wrong-headed prognostications. The International Food Policy Research Institute forecast 33 years ago that the world population would balloon to 8 billion by 2020. Close but no cigar. The U.N. projects the world's population is 7.7 billion, a mere 300 million below the estimate.
One popular conjecture was the disappearance of paper books as consumers turned to wireless devices to devour their favorite novel. That must be news to the U.S. book publishing industry which sold 675 million print books in 2018. True, sales are declining, but readers aren't scrapping books.
Against this backdrop of conceited folly, your journalist once again boldy (some say egotistically) wades into the treacherous, murky waters of the future with predictions for 2020:
1. The Dow Jones stock index soars to a record 30,000 in the first quarter before giving up ground in the third quarter to finish near 29,000 after business profits begin showing softness and global economies fail to meet market expectations.
2. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of U.S. economic growth, defies forecasts by averaging 2.2 percent quarterly as consumer spending continues to spur the recent boom and recession fears evaporate. Ninety percent of world economies lag behind U.S.
3. China's economy struggles to reach its former robust levels as more banks fail, consumer spending weakens and an increasing number of countries balk at investment because of human rights violations. These developments compel China to make more concessions on U.S. trade.
4. The housing market, after a temporary slumber, awakens as the Fed dampens rate hike jitters triggering a 5 percent uptick in single family home starts, while inventory shrinks and prices for existing homes post single-digit gains, primarily in currently hot markets.
5. After much speculation, China launches a digital version of its currency, the Yuan, raising pressure on the United States to enter the digital currency age to maintain the dominance of the dollar as a worldwide currency. The Treasury Department promises to "explore" the option.
6. American wireless firms, after trailing China's aggressive rollout, usher in the next generation wireless technology 5G with rapid deployment in more cities, but applications are a disappointment as handset manufacturers and network connected devices are slow to market.
7. U.S. Attorney John Durham completes his investigation into FBI abuse regarding spying on Trump campaign and the abuse of FISA warrants, leading to indictments of senior Obama era officials, including John Brennan, James Comey and Andrew McCabe.
8. With birth rates falling in the U.S., American colleges and universities rethink higher education and begin reaching out to more than 49 million retirees in an effort to lure them back to campus by building senior housing and other amenities to offset dwindling enrollment.
9. Early Democratic Party presidential primaries produce no clear frontrunner. Worried about beating President Trump, former President Barack Obama endorses a new entrant into the race, however, delegates to the convention in Milwaukee ultimately decide the nominee.
10. Articles of impeachment remain stalled in the House of Representatives as Democrats continue to scour for new charges to levy against President Trump. Democrats launch new probes and adopt more articles as ammunition to defeat the president in the 2020 election.
For readers who remain skeptical about your journalist's crystal ball wizardry, five of last year's predictions were absolutely on target, including the prophecy that Speaker Nancy Pelosi would initiate hearings for Articles of Impeachment after the Mueller Report produced no wrongdoing.
Now that you have been offered a glimpse of 2020, here's hoping you have The Best New Year Ever!
Showing posts with label Housing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Housing. Show all posts
Monday, December 30, 2019
Monday, May 27, 2013
Buying Votes With Taxpayer Bail Outs
Even the shackles of sequestration haven't stopped the Obama Administration from dreaming up new schemes for government handouts.
In the latest hustle, those twin mortgage misfits, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have created an insidious subterfuge to reward irresponsible behavior at the expense of taxpayers who bailed out the agencies five years ago.
In a little noticed move, the mortgage giants have announced they will offer lower payments to borrowers who become 90 days or more past due without requiring any proof of hardship. Fannie and Freddie bragged the plan would reduce monthly mortgage payments 30 percent. Repayment terms would be extended to 40 years under the plan.
With implementation scheduled in July, Democrats also are pushing behind the scenes for even more aggressive loan modifications, including reductions in the principal owed by distressed borrowers. The Congressional Budget Office estimates 1.2 million borrowers would be eligible under the arrangement.
These maneuvers are more about politics than economic reality.
Housing prices have rebounded in most markets. Sales are on the upswing. The share of homeowners behind in their payments is shrinking. The latest figures reveal that borrower delinquencies have dipped to their lowest level since 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
When the need was greatest during 2008, the Obama Administration rolled out flawed programs aimed at struggling homeowners. The arrangements were roundly criticized by academics and policymakers. The programs, designed to reach 3 million borrowers, only had 900,000 takers.
Past failures have been swept under the rug in the mad rush to dole out government favors before the mid-term elections.
With the latest gimmick, Fannie and Freddie are eliminating most paperwork used to establish a genuine hardship. Instead, they will aggressively court borrowers with letters containing the loan modification offer. Lower payment terms will be offered to borrowers without having to document their finances.
Once a homeowners inks the offer, the reduced remittances automatically become permanent after three payments are made. Like magic, poof, the homeowner gets to pay less money while occupying a home he couldn't afford. Homeowners who kept up their payments get nothing.
In case you have forgotten, Fannie and Freddie went belly up in 2008. Taxpayers shelled out $137 billion to bail out the firms, which were taken over by the Treasury Department. Although the government backed companies have begun repaying Treasury, taxpayers are out $127 billion.
A bi-partisan policy group, which includes former Democrat Sen. George Mitchell and ex-Housing and Urban Development Secretary Henry Cisneros, is calling for replacing Freddie and Fannie with a public guarantor to oversee the mortgage market.
One proposal by the group would wind down Fannie and Freddie. The suggestion is long overdue. The mortgage behemoths deserve to be scrapped before their risky lending behavior leads to another plea for a taxpayer bailout.
In the latest hustle, those twin mortgage misfits, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, have created an insidious subterfuge to reward irresponsible behavior at the expense of taxpayers who bailed out the agencies five years ago.
In a little noticed move, the mortgage giants have announced they will offer lower payments to borrowers who become 90 days or more past due without requiring any proof of hardship. Fannie and Freddie bragged the plan would reduce monthly mortgage payments 30 percent. Repayment terms would be extended to 40 years under the plan.
With implementation scheduled in July, Democrats also are pushing behind the scenes for even more aggressive loan modifications, including reductions in the principal owed by distressed borrowers. The Congressional Budget Office estimates 1.2 million borrowers would be eligible under the arrangement.
These maneuvers are more about politics than economic reality.
Housing prices have rebounded in most markets. Sales are on the upswing. The share of homeowners behind in their payments is shrinking. The latest figures reveal that borrower delinquencies have dipped to their lowest level since 2008, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
When the need was greatest during 2008, the Obama Administration rolled out flawed programs aimed at struggling homeowners. The arrangements were roundly criticized by academics and policymakers. The programs, designed to reach 3 million borrowers, only had 900,000 takers.
Past failures have been swept under the rug in the mad rush to dole out government favors before the mid-term elections.
With the latest gimmick, Fannie and Freddie are eliminating most paperwork used to establish a genuine hardship. Instead, they will aggressively court borrowers with letters containing the loan modification offer. Lower payment terms will be offered to borrowers without having to document their finances.
Once a homeowners inks the offer, the reduced remittances automatically become permanent after three payments are made. Like magic, poof, the homeowner gets to pay less money while occupying a home he couldn't afford. Homeowners who kept up their payments get nothing.
In case you have forgotten, Fannie and Freddie went belly up in 2008. Taxpayers shelled out $137 billion to bail out the firms, which were taken over by the Treasury Department. Although the government backed companies have begun repaying Treasury, taxpayers are out $127 billion.
A bi-partisan policy group, which includes former Democrat Sen. George Mitchell and ex-Housing and Urban Development Secretary Henry Cisneros, is calling for replacing Freddie and Fannie with a public guarantor to oversee the mortgage market.
One proposal by the group would wind down Fannie and Freddie. The suggestion is long overdue. The mortgage behemoths deserve to be scrapped before their risky lending behavior leads to another plea for a taxpayer bailout.
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