Top Ten Predictions For 2020

Futuristic predictions are notoriously goofed.  A glance in the rear view mirror of history illuminates the hazard of forecasting.  Consider in 1998 a well known futurist boldly prophesied that human life expectancy would rise to "over 100" by 2019.  He missed by a whopping 27.4 years.

In a 1994 book, a British commentator and editor foresaw the retirement age would inch up to age 70.  He was off by five years.  In the U.S. the average retirement age for men is 65 and 63 for women.  A few European countries have upped the retirement age to 67.

And there are more wrong-headed prognostications.  The International Food Policy Research Institute forecast 33 years ago that the world population would balloon to 8 billion by 2020.  Close but no cigar. The U.N. projects the world's population is 7.7 billion, a mere 300 million below the estimate.

One popular conjecture was the disappearance of paper books as consumers turned to wireless devices to devour their favorite novel.  That must be news to the U.S. book publishing industry which sold 675 million print books in 2018.  True, sales are declining, but readers aren't scrapping books.

Against this backdrop of conceited folly, your journalist once again boldy (some say egotistically) wades into the treacherous, murky waters of the future with predictions for 2020:

1.  The Dow Jones stock index soars to a record 30,000 in the first quarter before giving up ground in the third quarter to finish near 29,000 after business profits begin showing softness and global economies fail to meet market expectations. 

2.  Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of U.S. economic growth, defies forecasts by averaging 2.2 percent quarterly as consumer spending continues to spur the recent boom and recession fears evaporate.  Ninety percent of world economies lag behind U.S.  

3.  China's economy struggles to reach its former robust levels as more banks fail, consumer spending weakens and an increasing number of countries balk at investment because of human rights violations.  These developments compel China to make more concessions on U.S. trade.  

4.  The housing market, after a temporary slumber, awakens as the Fed dampens rate hike jitters triggering a 5 percent uptick in single family home starts, while inventory shrinks and prices for existing homes post single-digit gains, primarily in currently hot markets.  

5.   After much speculation, China launches a digital version of its currency, the Yuan, raising pressure on the United States to enter the digital currency age to maintain the dominance of the dollar as a worldwide currency.  The Treasury Department promises to "explore" the option. 

6.  American wireless firms, after trailing China's aggressive rollout, usher in the next generation wireless technology 5G with rapid deployment in more cities, but applications are a disappointment as handset manufacturers and network connected devices are slow to market.

7.   U.S. Attorney John Durham completes his investigation into FBI abuse regarding spying on Trump campaign and the abuse of FISA warrants, leading to indictments of senior Obama era officials, including John Brennan, James Comey and Andrew McCabe.  

8.  With birth rates falling in the U.S., American colleges and universities rethink higher education and begin reaching out to more than 49 million retirees in an effort to lure them back to campus by building senior housing and other amenities to offset dwindling enrollment.

9.  Early Democratic Party presidential primaries produce no clear frontrunner. Worried about beating President Trump, former President Barack Obama endorses a new entrant into the race, however, delegates to the convention in Milwaukee ultimately decide the nominee.    

10.  Articles of impeachment remain stalled in the House of Representatives as Democrats continue to scour for new charges to levy against President Trump.  Democrats launch new probes and adopt more articles as ammunition to defeat the president in the 2020 election.     

For readers who remain skeptical about your journalist's crystal ball wizardry, five of last year's predictions were absolutely on target, including the prophecy that Speaker Nancy Pelosi would initiate hearings for Articles of Impeachment after the Mueller Report produced no wrongdoing.

Now that you have been offered a glimpse of 2020, here's hoping you have The Best New Year Ever!