If you thought 2011 was a bad year, just wait until you learn what's just around the corner in 2012. From the world economy to international politics, all signs point to a new year shaken by one crisis after another. Better chew a bottle of Maalox before you read any further.
Crystal ball gazing has never been easy, but 2012 presents a Herculean challenge for prognosticators. Turmoil has roiled financial markets, governments, trade and foreign policy, making predicting the future is as difficult as trying to nail Jello to a wall.
Despite the formidable challenge, here are the Top Ten Predictions for 2012:
1. Rosy forecasts for economic recovery in the U.S. fail to materialize as GDP growth barely inches above 2 percent after finishing below that level in 2011. Consumer spending, the backbone of the economy, suffers as layoffs, falling house prices and anemic wage growth scuttle the economy.
2. The European Union teeters on the brink of a currency crisis as burgeoning sovereign debt compels some member nations to consider pulling out of the euro-zone. Economic growth in the EU stumbles to a minuscule one percent as financial shock waves jolt the continent.
3. Housing prices continue their downward spiral while annual sales barely eclipse 2010's low water mark of 4.91 million. Foreclosures jump in the first half of the year as mortgage firms clean up the mess of paperwork stalled by government investigations.
4. North Korea's new leader, anxious to flex his power, provokes a confrontation with neighboring South Korea, which escalates into a massing of troops in the DMZ between the two countries. After the dust-up, the military quietly begins looking for an opportunity to dump the new dictator.
5. Gasoline prices in the United States leap past $5 a gallon as Iran begins meddling in the affairs of Iraq, destabilizing the Mideast. As a result of Iranian coaxing, sectarian violence flares up, leading to the fall of the current government.
6. In spite of a sour economy, cosmetic surgery procedures experience record growth in the United States. The nip-and-tuck industry's revenues lift past the $15 billion mark in 2012 as aging boomers with discretionary income face their golden years with a new look.
7. Russian premier Putin, nervously watching growing unrest at home, secretly concocts a scheme to spark a domestic terrorist attack aimed at shifting voters' focus on homeland security. Rattled by the crisis, Russians return Putin to the nation's presidency.
8. Real unemployment remains near 16 percent in the U.S., but the Bureau of Labor Statistics issues a report in the third quarter pegging the jobless rate at 8.4 percent in a desperate attempt to show the economic policies of the president are succeeding.
9. A weak political organization and voter fatigue sink the presidential candidacy of Newt Gingrich, leaving Mitt Romney as the presumptive GOP nominee heading into summer's Super Tuesday primaries. However, he fares poorly in the southern state primaries, which raises the specter of an "open" GOP convention.
10. After a sometimes raucous convention spiced with talk of a Romney challenge, the former Massachusetts governor finally secures the GOP nomination. He goes on to capture the nation's highest office with 53 percent of the popular vote to President Obama's 46 percent.
Some may complain about the dollop of gloom and doom saturating this year's predictions. Get over it. The world is a scary place with more uncertainty and disruptive forces than at any time in recent memory. There are good reasons for pessimism.
If it's any consolation, the prediction here is that the Mayans are dead wrong about the world ending in 2012. At least, we think so.
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Sunday, January 1, 2012
Friday, December 24, 2010
Top Eleven Predictions For 2011
For those of you worrying and wondering what the New Year will bring, you have come to the right place. It is time for your favorite scribe to reveal his Top Eleven Predictions for 2011. After consulting a crystal ball, here's what you can expect in the coming months:
1. The unemployment number hits 10 percent by the end of February after thousands of out-of-work job seekers, who previously have been uncounted, now try to find work in the new year.
2. After a brief year-end rally, home sales tank as mortgage firms and banks reach settlements with state attorneys general, unleashing hundreds of thousands of foreclosures that had been suspended by legal wrangling.
3. A spate of defaults by local municipalities send bond prices tumbling as states wrestle with ballooning budget deficits caused by public employee pension costs and faltering tax receipts.
4. The Volt, GM's much ballyhooed entry into the electric market, fizzles after initial sales driven by corporate purchases from the likes of GE fuel breathless media coverage about the robust market for alternative fuel cars.
5. The economy inches ahead as some industry sectors begin slow recovery but the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) falls short of the 3.5 percent growth rate needed to boost employment to post-recession levels.
6. Inflation briefly creeps up to two percent as prices for gasoline and food drive up consumer costs, but the Federal Reserve decides not to adjust interest rates for fear of crimping business lending.
7. Telecommunications firm Verizon finally offers Apple's IPhone on its 4G network after years of teasing customers, shareholders and financial analysts about its imminent introduction.
8. Before the primaries, at least one politician emerges from the Democratic party to challenge President Obama, while the crowded Republican field produces a clear front runner before the year ends.
9. After suffering one bitter defeat after another, Nancy Pelosi decides to give up her role as minority leader for the Democrats, avoiding an embarrassing revolt by more moderate Congressmen and women chafing under her leadership.
10. Despite millions of dollars in American social and military aid, Yemen becomes the powder keg of the Mideast, exploding in violence as the country becomes a haven for the export of terrorism, particularly to the U.S.
11. After federal court challenges produced mixed results, the final legal test for Obama Care lands at the U.S. Supreme Court, as the President and Democrats stave off Republican attempts to neuter the health care overhaul.
For those of you looking for happy news predictions, these forecasts are sobering, especially in light of your scribe's past record for success. But let not your heart be troubled. Good news is just around corner in 2012. You can bank on it.
1. The unemployment number hits 10 percent by the end of February after thousands of out-of-work job seekers, who previously have been uncounted, now try to find work in the new year.
2. After a brief year-end rally, home sales tank as mortgage firms and banks reach settlements with state attorneys general, unleashing hundreds of thousands of foreclosures that had been suspended by legal wrangling.
3. A spate of defaults by local municipalities send bond prices tumbling as states wrestle with ballooning budget deficits caused by public employee pension costs and faltering tax receipts.
4. The Volt, GM's much ballyhooed entry into the electric market, fizzles after initial sales driven by corporate purchases from the likes of GE fuel breathless media coverage about the robust market for alternative fuel cars.
5. The economy inches ahead as some industry sectors begin slow recovery but the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) falls short of the 3.5 percent growth rate needed to boost employment to post-recession levels.
6. Inflation briefly creeps up to two percent as prices for gasoline and food drive up consumer costs, but the Federal Reserve decides not to adjust interest rates for fear of crimping business lending.
7. Telecommunications firm Verizon finally offers Apple's IPhone on its 4G network after years of teasing customers, shareholders and financial analysts about its imminent introduction.
8. Before the primaries, at least one politician emerges from the Democratic party to challenge President Obama, while the crowded Republican field produces a clear front runner before the year ends.
9. After suffering one bitter defeat after another, Nancy Pelosi decides to give up her role as minority leader for the Democrats, avoiding an embarrassing revolt by more moderate Congressmen and women chafing under her leadership.
10. Despite millions of dollars in American social and military aid, Yemen becomes the powder keg of the Mideast, exploding in violence as the country becomes a haven for the export of terrorism, particularly to the U.S.
11. After federal court challenges produced mixed results, the final legal test for Obama Care lands at the U.S. Supreme Court, as the President and Democrats stave off Republican attempts to neuter the health care overhaul.
For those of you looking for happy news predictions, these forecasts are sobering, especially in light of your scribe's past record for success. But let not your heart be troubled. Good news is just around corner in 2012. You can bank on it.
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