Winter Blackout Deals Texas Utilities A Black Eye

Snow began strafing Texas a week ago, creating a winter wonderland. Texans rushed outdoors to enjoy a frosty adventure.  However, their glee quickly turned into a nightmare as the state's power grid suffered an epic meltdown, plunging Texas into darkness.

At the apex of the blackout, more than 4.5 million Texas households were without electricity in bone-chilling, sub-freezing temperatures. For an energy rich state, it dealt a humiliating blow to Texas' image. Liberal media, such as The Washington Post, mocked Texas and blamed Republican leadership.

In the midst of the Apocalypse, the state's electric grid operator and city-owned power companies neared collapse as an historic, unrelenting Arctic storm camped over Texas. Instead of admitting failure, the state's grid operator and local utility companies dodged responsibility for the blackout.

Electric industry executives blamed the unanticipated, fierce storm for their lack of preparedness. To make matters worse, they faulted customers for turning up thermostats during the cold snap in an effort to deflect criticism of their own mismanagement, while practicing dreadful public relations. 

To find out what happened, here is a snapshot of the grid operator and its key players:

The state's grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), was thrust into the spotlight overnight.  Few Texans know about ERCOT, a not-for-profit (501 (c) 4) entrusted with managing 46,500 miles of transmission lines and more than 650 electric generation units. 

ERCOT supervises the flow of power on its grid, funneling electricity to 26 million customers, representing 90 percent of the state.  El Paso and parts of East Texas and the upper Panhandle are on another grid. During peak demand periods, ERCOT orders utilities to reserve or ration power.   

The news media failed to make it clear that ERCOT neither owns, maintains nor operates any electric generation.  Electric utilities, primarily private firms, but also electric cooperatives and city-owned firms, do the heavy lifting. These utilities are responsible for generation, transmission and maintenance.

The most relevant starting point for the blackout fiasco is Bill Magness, the president and CEO of ERCOT, charged with managing the grid.  Magness has no electric industry operational experience.  He is an attorney who once served on the Texas Public Utility Commission.

Magness answers to the ERCOT board, which consists of 25 members who are either consumers, representatives of the utilities, power suppliers or independent outsiders. Texans were outraged when word leaked that at least five key board members do not even live in Texas.

Sally Talberg, chairwoman of the board of directors, is a former state utility regulator who resides in Michigan, according to the ERCOT website.  Vice Chairman Peter Cramton is a professor of economics at the University of Cologne in Germany, but lists his residence as Del Mar, California. 

Board member Vanessa Anesetti-Parra serves as vice president of regulatory and compliance at JustEnergy and posts her address as Toronto.  After this became public, ERCOT abruptly erased this information from its website, contending board members received threats.  

Governor Gregg Abbott called for the firing of the board over the blackout.  But the state's chief executive has no authority to either hire or fire directors.  In a cozy arrangement, ERCOT's board appoints a nominating committee of current members to fill vacancies and determine board tenure.

ERCOT is nominally regulated by the Public Utility Commission and overseen by the Texas legislature. But that oversight has been at best lenient or at worse negligent. ERCOT, as well as its regulator and state lawmakers, have a lot of explaining to do to angry Texans, who suffered through the blackout.

Now let's turn to the criticisms of the Texas electricity model.

Outsiders and the the media pinned blame for the blackout on Texas' decision to operate an independent, single-state grid.  The lower 48 states are part of one of two giant synchronous grids, the Eastern Interconnection and the Western Interconnection, both run by not-for-profit boards.

The insinuation is that if Texas was connected to one of those extensive grids, it could tap spare capacity from other utilities during peak demand.  It is an appealing theory, but California is a member of the Western Interconnection, yet endures regular rolling blackouts during unusually hot summers.

When a grid is overwhelmed with demand, there is little or no excess power to shift from one city to another.  All grids experience blackouts.  One of the best known occurred in 2003 when a mammoth grid stumbled, blacking out large swaths of the Northeastern and Midwestern United States.

A media narrative also hoisted by liberal sources laid responsibility for the blackout on Texas' decision two decades ago to de-regulate the energy market.  Critics contend deregulation emphasized cheap electricity prices at the expense of reliable service.  That cheap shot tells only one side of the story.

Under Texas' free market model, more than 300 retail electric outlets offer service to Texas customers. Deregulation has actually spurred investment, especially by manufacturers of electricity. Since 2001, electric generation in Texas has soared nearly 30%. That is three times the growth rate nationwide, reports the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

In 2019, Texas generated twice as much power as Florida, the state in second place. Electric rates also plummeted under deregulation. Average electric rates nationwide are about 26% higher than in Texas. Low rates have fueled an influx of businesses and jobs from high-cost states, like California.

From 1999 to 2015, power firms in Texas constructed 50,000 megawatts of new generation, enough to power 10 million homes during peak demand.  In addition, investment has been plowed into wind and solar, ushering in new green energy sources online. Deregulation facilitated those investments.

For those who pine for a return to a heavily-regulated, monopoly system, heed this assessment of its potential chilling impact on investment in power generation: 

"A single rate case takes six to nine months in some regulated states, so it would have taken forever," says Bruce Bullock director of the Maguire Energy Institute at Southern Methodist University.  "And the price would be exorbitant."  Those investment costs would be passed along to ratepayers.

Those who bash Texas for a single grid and deregulation are well advised to consider all the facts, not just the half-truths circulated by the media and some partisans trying to politicize the blackout. The deployment of a single grid and the introduction of deregulation did not trigger the blackout.  That is a fact.

So what crashed the electric system, causing the colossal blackout?

The chief mission of operators like ERCOT is to prevent a cascading series of blackouts that would  collapse the electric grid. Once that happens, restoration takes weeks or months. By that standard, ERCOT did its job. However, that does not absolve ERCOT of any responsibility.  

ERCOT cannot escape blame in two areas: the most damaging blunder was to recommend, rather than insist, that Texas utility operators invest to winter-proof their generation facilities. Magness and others should have gone to the Public Utility Commission and the legislature with the issue.

In addition, ERCOT tried to soft-peddle the dereliction on the part of its member utilities.

As an example, here is Magness in a television interview on a Dallas station: "...We saw real improvements in the winterization of Texas power plants in the last several years.  The last time we had rotating outages was back in 2011. We've seen a lot of progress."   

That sound bite does not jibe with the reality on the ground. Wind turbines froze because of lack of winterization, knocking the facilities offline.  Wind generates 17.4% of the state's energy, not the 10% widely reported in the media. A few turbines operated during the blackout, but the majority failed.

As temperatures nosedived into single digit territory, gas pipelines froze because of moisture in the gas. Pumps stalled.  Backup diesel engines powering the pumps went silent.  One power plant after another ground to a halt.  A single reactor at one of the state's two nuclear plants fizzled after equipment froze.

According to ERCOT, frozen gauges and instruments at natural gas, coal and nuclear plants were the major culprit sparking the failure of power facilities.  To exacerbate the situation, some natural gas producers in Texas were selling supply to utilities outside the state instead of to home-grown utilities.

On February 16, ERCOT reported that 87% of total power shortages were from outages at natural gas and coal generators. About 13% of the outages were attributed to wind turbine failures.  An estimated 46,000 megawatts of power generation was lost, enough to power nearly 9 million households.   

Neither ERCOT nor the state's utilities can legitimately claim they were not warned about the need to winterize.  After the 2011 massive power outage in Texas, a 357-page investigative report cited the lack of winterization in too many critical generators across the state as the cause of the disaster.

The report was issued by the Federal Energy Regulation Commission (FERC) and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, which set reliability standards for electric grids.  The study recommended more insulation for facilities, heated pipes and increased energy reserve.

After the report landed on the desks of electric industry executives, heads nodded and a few meetings were held to discuss the recommendations.  But little else was done. 

According to an estimate from the FERC, the cost to winter-proof a natural gas well is more than $34,000.  At the end of 2019, Texas had over 122,000 gas wells.  The cost would top $4 billion.  It is uneconomic to invest that much capital in a single year and most firms lack the financial resources.  

However, since 2011, the energy suppliers and gas producers had a full decade to spread those investments, ameliorating the hit to firms' bottom lines. Instead, they nipped at the edges, making a few changes, but avoiding the big ticket items, while ignoring the advice of the report.

As the storm barreled into Texas, ERCOT cautioned of the need for rolling blackout to maintain grid integrity. Indeed, there were some cities that experienced rolling blackouts, where electricity came on for 30 minutes or an hour, then was shut down to conserve energy.

The lower temperatures dropped the higher customer demand rose. At one point, the grid was near disintegration when 185 of the state's 650 generators went offline, sometimes multiple times.  ERCOT generation sank to 40% of capacity as the Ice Age descended. It's reserve margin of 12.6% evaporated.  

In its role as grid operator, ERCOT essentially tells utilities how much power they can distribute and how much they need to hold in reserve to prevent the entire system from cratering. Utility companies in turn decide which businesses and neighborhoods receive electricity and which don't.  It's that simple.

Now here's an examination of one local utility's performance during the life-threatening storm.

A least one large city, San Antonio, was smothered in total darkness instead of a rolling blackouts. CPS Energy, the state's largest city-owned utility, hedged in its public communications. CPS President and CEO Paula Gold-Williams initially warned residents of rolling blackouts as demand sharply spiked. 

After insisting the blackouts were rolling, Gold-Williams was forced to admit the city was experiencing a total loss of power.  Later she told a local television station the blackouts were only for three hours at a time.  This was a falsehood but it was never challenged by the pliant local media.

In fact, the blackout durations were for 34 hours in parts of San Antonio until power was restored for six hours.  Before residents could celebrate, the electricity snapped again only to return like Lazarus from the dead 30 hours later. Residents shivered in sub-freezing temperatures in their homes.

Yet small, mostly affluent enclaves in the city were spared a blackout.  Also a flood of lights blazed in downtown SA, including at the mostly vacant CPS offices. Asked to explain the inconsistency, Gold-Williams offered this clarification:

The suburban areas were on the same electrical supply source as critical fire departments, police facilities and hospitals, sparing those households of the misery others felt.  Under intense heat, Ms. Gold Williams had the CPS office lights dimmed a day later to avoid a further public relations disaster.

This was just the beginning of what turned out to be CPS' worst catastrophe in many years.  One of the company's gas power plants was offline when the customer demand skyrocketed.  The plant had been shuttered for maintenance, which takes an average of 30 days. That reduced CPS' power capacity. 

As the crisis deepened, the CPS chief ordered staff to intentionally cut off power to some of the San Antonio Systems (SAWS)  pump stations, throwing a double-whammy at citizens.  Not only were many shivering in their homes and apartments, but now they had no water either.

CPS attempted to soften the public relations blow by telling the media only an estimated 30% of its customers lacked water.  Small consolation to those without power and water.  Even customers with a supply of water were advised to boil drinking water because of the risk of contaminants in the system.

Some of those downed circuits impacted water pump stations CPS had deemed critical, which means under even extreme circumstances, the facilities are to be protected.  "As the crisis got worse, we, in turn, had to hit some of those critical circuits," Gold-Williams admitted. 

The CPS executive's revelations increased the public fury, especially when she initially tried to fend off blame by declaring the Arctic burst could not have been anticipated.  That was laughable because local meteorologists had predicted the cruel weather two weeks prior to its crash landing in San Antonio.

With storm roaring through Texas, CPS gave no warning to its customers so they could prepare for what was almost certainly a loss of power.  Once the weather system slammed into Texas, CPS did little to communicate directly with customers on when or how electricity would be restored. 

The next shock wave to smack Texas: Soaring customer bills.

As the deep freeze subsided last weekend, some Texans faced the prospect of even more grim news: the shock of super-sized electric bills. 

Some of the state's electric retailers were forced to purchase wholesale power to keep power trudging to customer homes and apartments.  Wholesale prices rocketed from a seasonal average of $50 per megawatt hour to more than $9,000.

A Reliant Energy Customer in Mansfield told NBC News she typically pays $63 per month the electric bill for her one-bedroom apartment. Her bill is projected to between $114 and $133, according to estimates provided by the utility.

Within hours of the storm's arrival, the Public Utility Commission held an emergency meeting where officials approved an order that would adjust energy prices statewide. The following is a part of the order:

"Energy prices should reflect scarcity of the supply. If customer load is being shed, scarcity is at its maximum, and the market price of the energy needed to serve that load should also be at its highest."

That is government gobbledygook for:  Expect sticker shock when you get your next electric bill.

Some lessons learned in this year's once-in-a-century winter storm.

Texas utilities deferred capital investments for winter-proofing its generating facilities and paid the price during the storm.  Technically, customers will pay the price.  But continuing to ignore winterization will lead to more statewide blackouts that could crush the grid, prompting a months-long power outage.

ERCOT has operated in anonymity for too long.  The grid operator needs to be more transparent.  If ERCOT will be held responsible for grid failures, then it must also have the authority, with consent of the PUC, to require critical changes by its member utilities regarding generation, transmission and maintenance. 

Finally, Texas utilities should continue to increase power capacity as the state's population growth spirals.  Green energy has proven cost-effective and deserves to be expanded.  Additionally, more investment in other forms of energy are required to support mushrooming demand.

If Texas wants to restore its image as an energy state, the top imperative is to learn from the failures of this storm.  Repeating the same mistakes will only ensure another calamity that might jeopardize not only its reputation but the future growth of Texas.

News and Social Media Sabotaging Vaccinations

Even as more Americans roll up their sleeves for life-saving COVID-19 vaccinations, suspicions fueled by the news media and misleading information on social media sites are causing many to skip the shot. Public skepticism is endangering America's effort to beat a menacing, year-long pandemic.

Worries over the safety, the "rushed" nature of the pharmaceutical development and politicization of the vaccines are behind the public reluctance to be vaccinated.  Online conspiracies are spiraling out of control even as millions of vials of the vaccines are dispatched to every state.  

In little more than a month, 59.3 million dosages of the Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines have been dispatched. States have struggled to administer 42.1 million shots, despite months of lead time to develop public health plans.  A total of 9.1 million Americans have received the required two dosages.

While the snail's pace is unsettling, the more vexing issue is the public mistrust, apathy and even hostility toward promising vaccines that will end America's lockdown nightmare.  This anti-vaccine drumbeat is at odds with fatality statistics: More than 2 million worldwide and 460,000 in the U.S.

Pew Researchers tracked mushrooming apprehension among Americans.  In May, a Pew survey showed 27% of Americans would decline a COVID vaccination.  By November, that number had surged to 39%.  Polls indicate many are adopting a wait-and-see attitude to judge the vaccine's safety.

Speeding up the distribution and inoculation process will not halt the pandemic if four-in-10 adults are unwilling to be vaccinated.  Health experts believe that a vaccination rate of 75%-to-80% of Americans could potentially allow the country to achieve herd immunity later this year.

"By the time we get into fall, we can start approaching some degree of relief where the level of infection will be so low in society we can start essentially approaching some form of normality," says Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

His encouraging assessment has failed to motivate many Americans to bare their arms for a vaccination.  Here are just a few examples of what is happening across the country:

• Center for Disease Control (CDC) statistics document that only 37.5% of skilled staff at nursing homes are agreeing to be vaccinated.  The CDC reviewed data from 11,000 nursing facilities.
• Public records in Los Angeles show that between 20% to 40% of all frontline health workers refused to be vaccinated.
• In December about 60% of nursing home staff in Ohio declined to take the vaccines.  The state's governor expressed alarm at the statistics.
• The director of the United Memorial Medical Center in Houston publicly complained about the resistance from staff to take the vaccine.  About 50% of nurses are choosing not to be vaccinated.
• The New York City Firefighters are balking at being vaccinated. More than half of the 2,000 members of the Firefighters Association say they will not take a shot.

When frontline health workers and nursing home staff turn thumbs down on being vaccinated, it sends the wrong signal to average Americans.  They rightly wonder: If people in the health care profession reject the vaccines, they must know something is wrong with the safety and efficacy of the shots.

Cynicism over the vaccine unfolded even before the first vaccines were approved.  Democrats complained former President Trump was "rushing" the scientific development of a vaccine for political reasons. There are many examples that could be cited, but here's just one:

"We are all praying for a safe and effective vaccine as soon as possible, but the damage of the Trump Administration rushing a vaccine before it is known to be safe and effective could be catastrophic," Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a public statement issued October 6.

Throughout the presidential campaign, a Democrat theme was to raise alarm about the administration's handling of the pandemic and to dismiss the promise of vaccines to eradicate the virus.  The media echoed that narrative and deliberately downplayed the advance of science on the vaccine front.    

A new National Bureau of Economic Study of news coverage found a striking difference in the way the U.S. media covered the pandemic compared to journalists in other countries.  A staggering 91% of stories by major news outlets were negative versus 54% in non-U.S. media.  

The study, published by Dartmouth College and Brown University scholars, analyzed more than 20,000 news reports from 15 top U.S. media outlets and 39 international sources.  Among their discoveries was the way the media dismissed the likelihood of having a successful vaccine.

The authors noted that a vaccine was mentioned in 1,371 stories during the period while researchers found 8,756 print and broadcast reports involving Mr. Trump not wearing a mask and 1,636 mentions of the former president's endorsement of hydroxycholroquine. 

Some still want to pin the blame on President Trump.  But Mr. Trump touted the vaccines.  Vice President Mike Pence and members of both the Trump and Biden Administrations were shown receiving vaccinations to tamp down any speculation that the vaccines were unsafe.

Today every instance of someone experiencing a negative reaction to the vaccine is covered by the media in alarmist tones.  When a Democrat congressman tested positive after receiving two dosages of the vaccine, it erupted into a national news story.  Negative news about the vaccines stokes fear.     

Social media has been a sewer of conspiracy theories about the vaccine.  Some of the claims: The needle used to vaccinate people has a microchip with the mark of the Beast; vaccines alter your DNA; vaccines contain a microbe that tracks you; and the vaccines cause COVID. 

Ironically, social media platforms are removing what they consider "violent" content posted by conservatives, but allow conspiratorial scams to fester online, which sow the seeds of distrust for the vaccines and allow disinformation to spread unchecked.      

The damage already done to the public's perceptions will require a massive educational campaign by the health and medical community. It will be a long slog.  However, if it is not done quickly, there is very little light at the end of a long and deadly tunnel.   

Washington Swamp Awash In Lobbyists Cash

If money is the root of all evil, then the U.S. Capitol is Beelzebub. More than $63 billion has been legally funneled to the 484 members of Congress in the last ten years.  That works out to $130.1 million per Senator and House Representative over that period. The horde of cash is courtesy of lobbyists.  

At last count, there were 11,862 registered lobbyists showering their attention and wealth on those 484 lawmakers. That's 24 lobbyists per member.  Lobbying is not inherently corrupt, but the sums of money lavished on Senators and Representatives certainly buys not only access but influence.

Statistics cited above were culled from reports by the Center for Responsive Politics, an independent, non-partisan, not-for-profit, that researches and tracks money and politics in America and its impact on elections and public policies. The center's researchers have access to federal lobbying reports.

The Lobbying Disclosure Act requires lobbyists to register with the federal government and to report expenditures in a timely manner. But there are loopholes. Businesses or organizations employing in-house lobbyists are exempt from registration if the total expenses do not exceed $13,000 quarterly.

Lobbyists who devote less than 20% of their time to a single client are not required to register or file disclosures. Those are just a few examples of the loopholes that promote unethical lobbying conduct. Most of it goes undetected because of weak enforcement.

There is little transparency since disclosure reports are lodged with the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Secretary to the U.S. Senate. This is the proverbial wolf guarding the chicken coop. This cozy relationship results in lax reporting as well as questionable financial accuracy. 

Lobbyists use campaign contributions, fund raisers, paid speech opportunities and other means to gain a foot in the door with lawmakers.  And it is perfectly legal.Today's campaigns costs millions of dollars and senators and representatives are constantly scrambling for money to stash in their reelection coffers.

By one estimate, a candidate for Senate on average must raise more than $14,000 per day, seven days a week to win reelection.  It is a little cheaper for a House seat.  A sitting representative needs to raise an average of $1.5 million for campaigning.  It may sound cynical, but it's the way the system works.

Lobbyists use their influence with lawmakers to leverage national policymaking by swamping their often undermanned, inexperienced and overworked staffers with information and data to help shape legislation passed by the Senate and House.  

As legislation is drafted, lobbyists often review proposals and prepare recommendations for language and technical specifications to advantage their clients.  Those suggestions are filtered through Congressional staffs, who write legislation for their bosses. Lawmakers don't write bills. Staffs do.

A sentence or two inserted in a bill by a lobbyist can mean millions of dollars in tax savings or increased government funding for a client. For every dollar businesses and associations spend lobbying, they get an average $760 in federal support and tax savings in return for their clients.  

The Brookings Institute estimates between two-thirds and three-quarters all money spent on lobbying is done on behalf of business firms.  Name a large industry or a mammoth company and you are sure to find their names on federal reports on lobbying costs.

In 2020, OpenSecrets found that the U.S. Chamber, which represents most large corporations, doled out $59.3 million on lobbying.  Other big spenders: Associations of Relators, $58.5 million; Pharmaceutical Research & Manufacturers, $20.7 million; and American Hospital Association, $18.2 million.

Big Tech also was among those piping cash to Washington.  Facebook doled out $14.9 million and Amazon tallied $13.7 million in lobbying costs.  Although Democrats portray the National Rifle Association (NRA) as a big-spending bogeyman, the group's lobbying expenses were $3.2 million.

Lobbyists not only offer cash.  Some strike quid-pro-quo deals with lawmakers for future employment in mutli-million dollar positions at their firms.  About 50% of senators and 42% of representatives snap up lobbying gigs after leaving Congress, reports RepresentUs, a grassroots anti-corruption group.

Some lawmakers end up as in-house lobbyists for corporations. Others are hired by trade associations anxious to increase their visibility in Congress.  A few land a position in the administration of a president. It is an endless revolving door where ex-members snag plum jobs for past favors.

Sound corrupt?  That is a rhetorical question.  

Throw into this mix  billions of dollars in foreign lobbying by U.S. firms and the financial stakes are raised even higher.  Foreign organizations and governments spent more than $3 billion on lobbying between 2016-2020, according to OpenSecrets.

U.S. lobbyists operating on behalf of foreign agents usually focus their efforts on tourism, trade and advocacy for policy positions. Their job includes regularly interfacing with members of Congress on not only those issues but others of special interest.  

The Sunlight Foundation and ProPublica scrutinized foreign reporting data for 2008 and uncovered extensive "political and quasi-political" lobbying of Congress.  Lobbyists for foreign agents hauled in $85 million in fees in 2008 and contacted Congressional offices more than 10,700 times.

Since 2016, Russia has spent $40.7 million on lobby efforts; Qatar, $32.9 million; China, $30.8 million; Japan, $23.9 million; South Korea, $22.6 million; Bahamas, $20.2 million; Marshall Islands, $15.9 million; and United Arab Emirates, $12.5 million.  

Recently filed disclosure records indicate Venezuela's socialist government engaged a Washington law firm to lobby against the U.S. effort to impose sanctions on the oil rich nation.  A subsidiary of Venezuela's state oil company paid $6 million in 2017.  The report was filed only last week.

How to stop this madness?  One step is to prevent politicians from taking money from special interests they regulate.  Another is to slam shut the revolving door between Congress and lobbying firms.  A third is to limit lobbyists donations and halt lobbyist-backed fund raising.

Most importantly, Congress needs to scrap the current system of the reporting of lobbyists financial disclosures to itself.  The information should be filed with an independent watchdog agency that has the authority to audit the disclosures and levy stiff fines for non-compliance.     

When can you expect these changes? Never.  It's in the best financial interests of members of Congress to maintain the current system with all its loopholes and opaqueness. The Swamp will remain as dirty as ever.  That may sound cynical but there appears little enthusiasm for drainage. 

Missing: Has Anyone Seen My Credit Card?

I confess to having an estranged relationship with a credit card. More often than not it disappears for days, weeks or more.  These times of separation fill me with angst. It carries my name but doesn't answer when I call.  When I pine for the sensation of its raised plastic numbers, the card avoids me.

This dysfunctional relationship is the result of my thought process. My mind meanders down a stream of consciousness that avoids the present.  Credit cards never float in that mental body of water. Therefore, it is not really my fault cards go missing.  I blame the president.  Isn't it the American way?  

I have read that 7 out of 10 Americans own credit cards. If my experience is normal, then five of those 10 have no idea where their Master Card is at this moment. It may be difficult to fathom, but credit cards have been known to leap out of my wallet, dive into crevices and sneak under a sofa cushion.

Whenever I call a credit card company to report a lost card, they immediately recognize my telephone number.  Before I explain my dilemma, the service rep, located somewhere in India, will coo softly: "Hi, Mr. Roy.  Should I send your replacement credit card to the same address?"  It is humiliating. 

Once my bride and I chauffeured my Mom to lunch at her favorite Italian restaurant in San Antonio.  When the check arrived, I explored my pants pocket for my American Express. (I am only allowed to lug around a single credit card as a precaution against losing an entire wallet full of plastic.)

My face blushed bright red after I came up empty handed. My bride, who has dealt with my peccadillo for more than a half-century, reflexly ticked off a list of possible places I could have left my card. "Perhaps it's in your car," she suggested with a hint of exasperation. 

I returned to the car and strip searched my vehicle.  Nothing.  As I was returning to the restaurant, I spotted a shiny object in the parking lot.  I fetched it. Viola!  It was my wandering credit card. However, it looked like it had been crushed by a road grader. Another call to India.  

Days later a new American Express appeared in the mail.  I decided to make a copy of the card, since the folks in India always insist I provide the numbers on the misplaced card. Smart, huh?  About a week later, I searched my wallet for the AE rectangular object.  It had gone MIA.

For weeks, I explored every drawer, sofa, chair, vehicle and pair of pants. Panic set in.  This would be so humbling to admit to Dianna that I lost a card before I ever used it.  I refused to dial India.  My alibi always is the card isn't lost, it is just hiding in plain view.  Denial is the first sign of senility.

One day, I went to my copier-fax-printer and lifted the lid to copy a document.  Sitting on the glass plate was a silver American Express card.  When I had made the copy weeks ago, I had forgotten to retrieve the card.  All of India was celebrating my good fortune. AE likely declared an employee holiday.

These tales of lost cards are only the most egregious ones.  Recently, I was stuck in a long line at the Costco gas pumps. Finally, I inched my car to the gas pumps.  I reached in my wallet.  No Costco Visa. I was hemmed in with no ability to maneuver my car.  I steamed until I was able to exit the queue.

Back home, I alerted Dianna, always the most diplomatic of conversations.  "Could I borrow your Costco Visa?" I pleaded, praying for a sympathetic response.  "Where's your card?" she persisted.  I shrugged and flashed a pitiful look.  She handed over her card with a shake of her beautiful head.  

I conducted an investigation with all the determination of an FBI manhunt.  Weeks passed.  One day, while vacuuming my car, I stuck the hose underneath the back of the driver's seat.  The hose hit something.  I levered the seat forward.  There was my Costco Visa. And also my American Express.

I had been unaware the AE card had taken leave of my wallet. The only good news was Dianna just knew about the AWOL Visa card. Sometimes the god of Credit Cards feels empathy for me. But it is usually a temporary reprieve.  

Years ago, we dined with friends Wayne and Barb Alexander.  When the check arrived, we agreed to split the bill.  We handed over our credit cards to the waiter, who returned shortly with receipts to sign. We scrawled our signatures, picked up our cards and both returned home.

A day later, Dianna and I flew to Atlanta for a trip to The Masters golf tournament in Augusta, Georgia. We stayed at a resort about halfway between Atlanta and Augusta.  As we were preparing to drive to Augusta, my wireless phone trilled.  It was Wayne calling.

"Hey, Drewski," Wayne greeted.  "I think you have my Master Card."  I fumbled for my wallet and withdrew my Master Card.  Clearly printed on the front of the plate was Wayne Alexander.  "Uh, yeah, I have you card. Do you have mine?"  "Yes," Wayne replied.  I was relieved.

My reprieve was temporary.  "You haven't used my card, have you?" Wayne inquired.  A moment of silence ensued to collect my fleeting thoughts.  "Hmm, I guess I did a few times," I sheepishly admitted. Turns out I had charged hundreds of dollars and signed my name.  No one had noticed, including me.

My only solace was my Master Card was NOT lost.  I knew exactly where it was.  At Wayne's house in San Antonio. The rest of the trip Dianna assumed the credit card responsibilities.  Do you blame her? Poor lady must get tired of hearing me ask: "Have you seen my credit card?"

I am chagrined that credit cards aren't the only items dispatched to a lost and found department.  Golf clubs, reading glasses, cameras, a shirt or two, a couple of Crosses on a gold chains are among the dearly departed. Thankfully I can report I have never lost a pair of underwear.  Not yet anyway.

My son Derek and daughter-in-law Erika took notice of my flawed persona and one Christmas gifted me  a Tile, a bluetooth tracker designed to locate your possessions.  I put the plastic device in the case where I kept my reading glasses.  I had this regrettable habit of leaving the glasses on airplanes.

Over time, the Tile proved useful in locating my glasses: in my car, in my house, at a restaurant.  But even the Tile could not protect me forever.  After a trip to Hawaii, I was homebound on a flight to Dallas. When I reached the airport, I frantically searched my traveling case for my glasses.

No glasses.  Ah, but I had my tracker, which was linked to my wireless device. I pulled out my iPhone and checked the Tile app.  My glasses were at the airport in Maui.  Great!  I immediately dialed lost and found at the Maui airport and reported my glass case was in the lounge area.

Days droned without a word.  I called several times over the next few weeks only to be greeted with the same news that my glasses had not been located.  It was a crushing defeat when I learned not even technology could bail me out.  I solved the glass problem by having cataract surgery in both eyes.

I just wish there was a surgical procedure to cure my credit card blues. That's it, I need an implant. (Not that kind, you awful people!) Credit Card chips inserted in both hands.  If you have a name of an implant surgeon, please forward it to me. The call centers in India will be grateful.    

America Must Decide Between Unity and Revenge

Joe Biden has plucked "unity" from a thicket of possible themes as the thrust of his inauguration as the 46th president of the United States. Although a commendable choice, it hardly reflects the rhetoric or actions of his party's leaders.  Will Biden's plea make any difference for a divided citizenry?

That questions lingers as Democrats led by a revengeful Nancy Pelosi impeached the president for "inciting violence" during his January 6 speech. The Speaker of the House inflamed partisan emotions with her second impeachment of Mr. Trump, a parting middle finger to the president.

Put aside your feelings about whether President Trump deserves this ignominy for his impassioned speech near the Capitol. Is the Speaker's action designed to knit the country or segregate it further?  Why impeach a president with less than a week left on his term?  

Constitutional scholar and former Harvard Law Professor Alan Dershowitz labeled the impeachment "unconstitutional," pointing out the president did not incite the crowd but advocated his position. Here is how Dershowitz framed the issue:

"You can condemn, you can attack, you can refuse to vote for, you can do all those things which are politically available to you.  But the one thing you can't do is use the law, which is impeachment, on something that is protected by the First Amendment."

Will an unconstitutional act unite all Americans?

According to the Associated Press Mr. Biden's inauguration speech will be a "show of bipartisanship at a time when the national divide is on stark display."  This surely must apply to Biden's own party.  Or does healing require Republicans to suffer retribution and revenge at the hands of the victors?  

Pelosi's impeachment tactic was not just aimed at President Trump but also his supporters.  There is a movement afoot in the Democrat Party, corporate American and the media to punish anyone associated with Mr. Trump, including his 74 million voters.  Evidence abounds to validate this contention.

Rich Klein, the political director for ABC News, took to social media with this mencacing message: "The fact is getting rid of Trump is the easy part.  Cleansing the movement he commands is going to be something else."  Chastised and fearing for his career, Klein deleted the Tweet.

CNN anchor Don Lemon linked those who supported Mr. Trump to Nazis and Ku Klux Klan members.  "Principled people, conservative or liberal, are never on the Klan side. Principled people, conservative or liberal, are never on the Nazi side," he said on air in a reference to those who voted for Mr. Trump.

A PBS (Public Broadcasting Corporation) attorney Michael Beller was recorded saying the children of Republicans should be shunted to "reeducation camps." He didn't stop there.  "Homeland Security should take their children away." PBS subsequently fired  Beller from the taxpayer supported network.

During the impeachment proceeding, Democrat Rep. Jason Crow took the floor to denounce Rep. Taylor Green, a Republican who contested the election results.  "There are unfortunately a handful of members of Congress, Mrs. Taylor Green is just one, who are morally bankrupt," Crow bellowed.

"They are depraved and frankly dangerous individuals," he added. Green joined 147 of her GOP colleagues in questioning the results of the presidential contest.  Olive branches were nowhere in sight. The time was ripe to unleash the hounds of heckling to besmirch those who sidled with Trump.

Rep. Green suffers from convenient amnesia.  Members of his  party challenged the 2016 election results when the Electoral College votes were certified in the House. Speaker Pelosi tweeted: "Our election was hijacked.  There is no question. Congress has a duty to #ProtectOur Democracy."

Do you recall the hue and cry about the blasphemy of suggesting the election was stolen?  Crickets.

Corporate America is piling on too as a growing list of firms vowing to punish those who did not support the certification of the Electoral College results.  Among the first were Wall Street giants Goldman Sachs Group and JP Morgan Chase along with Citigroup and Marriott International.

"We have taken the destructive events at the Capitol to undermine a legitimate and fair election into consideration and will be pausing giving from our Political Action Committee to those who voted against certification of the election," a Marriott spokesperson said.

Titans of business are locking arms with Democrats to seek retribution for the grievances aired by the party.  These capitalist proponents have adopted the socialist tactic of becoming nothing more than an extension of the ruling party, raising antitrust and Constitutional issues.

In the midst of the boiling cauldron of reprisal, the two major social media platforms, Twitter and Facebook, reacted.  Twitter banned the president and Facebook suspended his account.  Many foreign leaders, including the Australian government,  condemned the ban as an act of "censorship."  

In Russia, the opposition leader, Alexey Navalny, cautioned that this precedent will be "exploited by the enemies of freedom of speech around the world. In Russian as well." Startling to hear a Russian lecture America about its Constitutionally guaranteed protection of free speech.

Then Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the ad-hoc leader of the Democrat progressive wing, unexpectedly, and likely inadvertently, revealed what Democrats are plotting.  Her chilling comment:

..."I do think that several members of Congress, in some of my discussions, have brought up media literacy because that is part of what happened here and we're going to have to figure out how we rein in our media environment so that you can't just spew disinformation and misinformation."

Will censorship cure what ails America?  Or will people be left with no choice other than to make their voices heard in the streets?

Let's hope President-elect Biden's plea for unity is sincere.  However, unless his party's leaders and revenge-minded Democrats show restraint, America will descend into chaos and anarchy.  There will be no healing of volcanic passions unless both parties appeal to the greater good in us.

Unity does not mean everyone must agree on Mr. Biden's policies. Critics should not be silenced in the name of unity.  This Unity refers to our oneness as a nation.  We are united by the Constitution which guarantees freedom of speech, freedom of expression and freedom of the press. 

If America turns its back on those freedoms, we will plummet into the abyss of failed democracies.   

January 6: The Day Americans Wept For Our Nation

The saddest day in American history is seared into our memories. Angry insurrectionists, waving a flag that symbolizes freedom, committed anarchy.  Thousands breached America's capitol, invading the halls of Congress as the world watched in horror.  Mob behavior is unAmerican.  It is shameful. Unacceptable.

What happened January 6 can never be repeated.  Not if America wants to survive as the shining beacon of democracy.  Americans feel ashamed.  We want swift justice for those who perpetrated this despicable act. There can be no excuse for a full scale incursion that left five dead, 52 arrested and 14 police injured.

Passions were ignited by President Trump who gave a fiery speech to about 200,000 supporters.  As the rally was ending, frenzied thousands rushed toward the Capitol, tearing down security fencing. The scenes were broadcast around the globe.  A collective gasp arose from stunned world leaders.

A peaceful transition to a new administration was shattered in those moments.  President Trump was condemned by lawmakers, his own party leaders and the media. Even staunch supporters piled on. He will live with this ignominy for the remainder of his days.  The nightmare will haunt him and the nation.

Assigning blame, will not heal America. We need soul searching.  We need to hold up a mirror and force ourselves to confront realities many have ignored.  This nation is hopelessly divided by politics, certainly.  But that masks what really bugs many Americans.  It has nothing to do with political parties.

Our divisions are caused by evil.  This evil goes by many names. Hatred. Arrogance.  Intolerance. Pride. Injustice. Ridicule. Hypocrisy. Incivility. We no longer respect each other.  We don't honor our institutions.  We are a country of US versus THEM.  Unity has become a fleeting aspiration.

Today we cry out for a truly United States.  Realistically, we will not find national peace when fissures exist in our families and friendships over politics. No one should be shocked there is a yawning chasm in our country when even our closest relationships are bisected over what candidate we support.  

Confronted with the most challenging health crisis in nearly a century, America choose division.  Politicians from both sides of the aisle refused to work together yet seem shocked when ordinary citizens developed polarized views on the outbreak. 

This could have been a unifying moment.  All Americans, all politicians, the media coming together as one nation to confront this ugly Coronavirus.  That never happened.  Why?  The answers are myriad but the most obvious is that our leaders never sought solidarity.  They chose political gamesmanship.  

Throughout 2020, America was roiled by looting, burning and anarchy in our streets.  Many refused to condemn the mob violence because it was rooted in an idea that Black Lives Matter.  Did anyone believe allowing lawlessness by one group would not give tacit permission for more rebellious conduct?

How many political leaders and media outlets denounced summer's mob violence? Businesses were destroyed.  Police were killed and injured.  Looting was endorsed by politicians as acceptable because the people were disenfranchised.  Anarchists controlled entire parts of cities.  Many applauded. 

Do we excuse violence in some cases and castigate it in other situations?  Violence is wrong no matter the circumstances.  Anarchy is misguided no matter the cause.  Killing other human beings is a sinful act, if they are police prisoners or babies in the womb.  What we condone as a nation we will reap.

When unruly activists took over parts of a Senate office building to protest the Supreme Court nomination of Brett Kavanaugh, they were celebrated.  Political leaders defended their indefensible behavior as patriotic support of women's rights.  Why was this condoned? What message did it send?

Let me make this clear.  None of these incidents rise to the level of January 6.  I do not cite these to excuse the ugliness of the Capitol rampage.  But Americans can no longer deny we are living in a age of violence and anarchy.  Examples abound.  Ignore them at your own peril. 

The root cause is Hatred.  There is so much seething in this country that tranquility is impossible.  We mock people for their political and social views.  We demonize those who disagree with us.  We hate a president, a speaker of the house, a class of people and the symbols of our shared history.  

Instead of solving our differences peacefully we yell at each other. We choose sides and ignore solutions. The nation resembles a schoolyard playground, one flashpoint away from a brawl.  Blame politicians or the media.  The truth is WE are responsible for upholding American values.

What is occurring in America is a battle for its soul.  Some want to rewrite America's past.  They are contemptuous of our founders, our flag, our statues, our national anthem.  Just as many Americans cherish our history, even with all its flaws.  Our values and ideals are no longer common. 

Politicians recognize this national conflict and are using it to tear us asunder.  You and I don't have to take the bait.  We have a choice. Learn why others think differently than you; respect their viewpoints; remain civil in communications (including emails) with everyone. That's on US.  Not THEM.

Finally, we need to turn to God in our darkness.  It may sound trite but I make no apology.  America will not find the answer in our political class no matter how noble the politician.  Only God can heal what is broken. Let's not waste this opportunity to put our faith in Him.

Probably Accurate Top 12 Predictions For 2021

2020 is now officially a four-number, vulgarism.  People refer to their Congressional representative as a 2020 hole.  The neighbors dog deposited a pile of 2020 in your yard.  Preachers warn congregants they will go to 2020 unless they mend their ways.  2020 was such $%#@!  Good 2020 riddance.   

Fortunately, the calendar now reads 2021.  It's a New Year.  But will it be any better than 2020?  That's the question your favorite prognosticator ponders as he makes his annual predictions.  Some readers chide your journalist for gazing into the future when so often he has been slightly, occasionally wrong.

However, I would point out many celebrated economists, Wall Street wizards, respected scientists, data modelers and captains of industry flubbed 2020.  Every one of them still hold their jobs despite their record of failed forecasts.  Cut me some slack.  I deserve at least an opportunity to match their ineptitude. 

Normally, your forecast analyst offers ten predictions.  But, if you haven't heard, 2020 was an unusual year.  A break from tradition seemed appropriate to remove the stench of 2020. With that introduction and without further 2020, here are the Top 12 Predictions for 2021:

1.  Churches will continue to be the target of forced closures and limited attendance until at least the summer.  When churches and synagogues finally are able to welcome back flocks, attendance will hover around 70% of pre-pandemic rates as believers settle into a comfortable routine of online worship.  

2.  Only 60% of Americans eligible to receive the new Coronavirus vaccines will get the shot.  As a result, businesses and state governments will require all employees to be vaccinated. The new administration will issue an order mandating all Americans be vaccinated, but it will be overturned in court.  

3. Government certificates proving you have been vaccinated will be required to travel, go to college, dine inside restaurants, visit hospitals and attend movies.  A cottage industry will spring up offering fake certificates and schemes will emerge offering Americans a way to jump ahead of others for a vaccination.    

4.  Big movie theaters will become rare after months of closures and empty seats force the entertainment industry to shutdown 65% of its facilities.  In their place, smaller theaters that serve food will arise from the lockdown ashes.  Most movies and even some Broadway plays will debut on streaming services. 

5.  Hollowed out office buildings and malls will become permanent symbols of the wreckage of the Coronavirus.  Leased space buildings will face vacancy rates of more than 32%. Work-from-home will become the norm, fueling skyrocketing sales of office furnishing and remodeling for residences. 

6. Local and national retail businesses will remain permanently crippled as online retailers Amazon, Walmart and others gobble up most of that segment of the economy.  Online sales will rise from 16.1% to 27.4% of all retail sales in 2021, the largest annual increase in a decade. 

7. President Biden, citing the rise of a new super-spreader COVID variant, will order strict nationwide lockdowns in January as cases and deaths continue to spiral.  The president will mandate masks, initiate invasive contact tracing and demand Americans shelter in place for the duration of a "dark" winter. 

8. Lockdowns and the issuance of more government stimulus checks will drive unemployment into double digits.  The Dow will decline by 16.9%; the S&P will fall 11%; the NASDAQ will increase 19% as big tech reaps the benefits of restrictions.  The annual Gross Domestic Product for 2021 will be 2.9%.  

9.  Prosecutors in the cases against Hunter Biden, who is charged with tax evasion and money laundering, will be replaced by the incoming president.  Hunter will pay a $5 million fine to settle the charges, which mostly stem from his dealings with China. The media will drop the matter to protect President Biden.

10.  An already throttled travel industry slumbers as big cruise ships are dry docked, international flights are scuttled and hotels operate with 60% vacancies.  Airbnb will double its revenues.  Domestic travel returns in summer, however, airlines slash flight schedules. Travel industry recovery stalls until 2022.  

11. Schools in most Democrat-run states and cities will remain closed except for virtual learning for the remainder of the year as powerful teachers unions balk at reopening without pay raises and the requirement of vaccinations of all children.  Enrollment in private schools will leap 22% during the year.

12. Independent restaurants, which comprise 70% of all eateries, will suffer losses as restrictions limit indoor dining.  A staggering 75% of all independent restaurants will shutdown by the end of 2021. Those that remain will have a tough time rehiring furloughed staff receiving unemployment benefits.

Some of you are already shaking your heads in doubt.  You may be thinking 2021 will be the dawning of a new era of prosperity as the economy reopens, the virus is reeled under control and the nation breathes a sigh of relief with a new administration in Washington. Your vision may indeed be 2020.

I have no desire for another year of crisis.  I honestly hope my forecasts are spectacularly wrong.  However, that dusty old crystal ball of mine follows the mists of the future wherever it leads.  Don't blame me.  I believe in the science of forecasting and I donned a mask to protect myself from a computer virus.

That makes me above reproach.