Standing in line at Wharton County Junior College in 1964, a bespectacled professor was quizzing each incoming freshman about the choice of a major. My only goal at the time was to spend as little time as possible in class. Now I was supposed to select a career? And before the first class?
My best friend stood ahead of me in the queue. When he approached the professor, he uttered those now famous words, "I want to major in journalism." Listening, I thought to myself. Writing. Hmmm. How hard could that be? I had watched a chimpanzee bang on a typewriter in a movie.
That is how I wound up in journalism. What began as a fanciful notion, soon turned into a passion for reporting on the news My initial foray into my freshly minted major was as a writer for the college newspaper. I soon received my first lesson about ethics and journalism.
After some investigation, I wrote a story about our dear college president, who was secretly assisting a local manufacturing plant break a strike by hiring students. It was hush-hush but I uncovered a couple of students who volunteered to be whistle blowers. Now they call them unnamed sources.
The day the story appeared in the college paper my journalism professor was hastily summoned to the office of the president. The president ordered my dismissal. This brave journalism professor balked. He promised to have a stern talk with me about my obvious disregard for authority.
Somehow I survived the dust-up. Soon after, opportunity knocked. The publisher of the local Wharton newspaper had seen my writing and wished to meet. I figured he wanted me to do obituaries because I had almost buried a college president with a single article.
To my surprise, he showed up for the meeting with a crude radio transmitter. The publisher also owned the local radio station. His play-by-play sports announcer had just quit. And the junior college had a basketball game that evening. Would I be interested? Well, I was a journalism major.
After a 15-minute lecture on radio transmitting and on air broadcasting, I was ready for my first radio gig. I ended up broadcasting basketball and baseball games. That's when I learned not everything in life is preparation. A lot of what happens is just sheer luck no one can foresee.
Two years later I was working in the Sports Information Department at East Texas State University, my next stop on my college career path. I needed money to pay for college and I liked sports. Perfect match. Then I wound up being offered the job of editor of the college newspaper.
Trouble followed. I turned one entire edition of the paper into a buzz saw against the student government. I skewered the student body president, tagging him a pawn of the administration. The burly guy accosted me one day on campus and threatened to dismember my body, organ by organ.
Before long, I had a call from the Greenville Herald Banner, a daily newspaper located not far from Commerce. Their sports editor had gotten drunk and fled town. Would I consider being sports editor for the summer? It seemed like fate kept nudging me on the shoulder.
One day the editor raced to my desk and told me to hotfoot it to a small town a few miles outside of Greenville where a horse had broken from its rider and was racing through downtown causing general havoc. It sounded like a yawn to me, now a big time sports editor.
When I arrived, the police were trying to corral the horse. The boy who owned the animal was trailing behind shouting, "Whoa, Dammit!" Turns out that was the horse's name. Dammit. It was a reporter's dream. The headline on the front page howled: "Boy Tells Horse: 'Whoa, Dammit."
The article won an Associated Press award for feature writing. My career in journalism was galloping along. After I graduated college, I landed a job with United Press International, a wire service news organization with far flung offices. I was offered Little Rock, a global hotspot.
Newly wed, I drove into Arkansas in the summer of 1968. Within weeks, race riots erupted in the city. I was dispatched to the epicenter of the action. I was phoning in my report from a pay booth when an angry mob of folks surrounded the cubicle. My life of 21 years flashed before me.
I bolted from the pay phone booth and sprinted like Jesse Owens. I never looked back as I darted for the National Guard contingent manning barricades nearby. I practically collapsed into the arms of a guardsman. When I glanced back, all I saw was darkness. Journalism was a risky business.
A few years later, the Dallas Times Herald offered me a job on the city desk. The Times Herald was locked in a circulation battle with The Dallas Morning News. Competition was fierce and the Herald wanted some more firepower. That would be me. Mr. Firepower.
One day I decided to sneak into the newsroom early to write a story for the paper's afternoon edition. The newsroom was empty, eerily silent except for the clattering of news wire machines. I was absentmindedly checking a few headlines when suddenly my heart went thud, thud, thud.
The Associated Press carried a story about the shooting of four sheriff's deputies in Dallas County. The incident had happened at 2 a.m. after The Morning News had already printed its final edition. I glanced at my watch. It was 4 a.m. I raced for a telephone and called the news editor at home.
The editor began summoning a crew of reporters and photographers while I sped to the Sheriff's Office. By noon, we had wrapped up the biggest story in Dallas in years. The Times Herald published an expanded edition that arrived at homes that afternoon. It was a stunning scoop.
For my Herculean efforts, I was awarded a $10 a week raise. That was the beginning of the end of my journalism career. We wanted to start a family and the key to journalism would never unlock financial security. I decided to switch careers, despite my love of writing and reporting.
I admit goosebumps rise on my arms every time I hear breaking news. I want to be smack in the middle of the action. But the news business turned out to be cheap, cruel and often ethically challenging. I discovered journalism was a business, not pure as the driven snow.
I am glad I divorced journalism when I did. It depresses me now to watch a once proud profession wallow in mediocrity and disgrace. But I survived journalism's alluring embrace with some great memories. I will cling to those in my golden years like a warm blanket.
Sunday, December 9, 2018
Monday, December 3, 2018
Pessimism Influences Our Viewpoint
Studies dating back several decades reveal a phenomenon unique to prosperous nations. People tend to be pessimistic about their country and their world but optimistic about their own lives. This dichotomy may appear at first glance to be a conundrum but experts have an explanation.
Many point to a 2013 groundbreaking study conducted by a Swedish statistician and public health expert Hans Rosling. He surveyed 1,005 Americans on the issue of world poverty. He was astonished to find only five percent of Americans correctly estimated the level of poverty.
In his research, Americans were asked if world poverty had almost doubled, almost halved or stayed about the same in the last 20 years. The correct answer is extreme poverty has been reduced by one-half. Most Americans estimated it was much higher, influenced by what they had read or heard.
The statistician's conclusion, supported by many other studies, is that people's pessimistic views often are unsupported by facts. This is especially true in developed countries, where people generally have higher levels of income, increased security and benefit from healthier living conditions.
Consider recent data from the University of Michigan, Haver Analytics and Deutsche Bank Global Research. For the first time millennials are less optimistic than those aged 55+ about the future. Just 37 percent of people believe today's children will be better off financially than their parents.
Researchers concede there are depressing issues confronting the world: terrorism, conflicts, failing economies, drugs, student debt and many others. However, these problems are often the subject of news reporting that inflates the risks and danger to attract viewers, readers and listeners.
Psychologists point to the media's infatuation with bad news. Murders, accidents, bombings, natural disasters and scandals dominate the news. The emphasis is on tragedy, despair and disturbing behavior. Is it any wonder Americans believe the world is crumbling beneath their feet?
Meanwhile, good news is usually ignored because the media is convinced people aren't interested. Unfortunately, there is evidence to suggest the news cabal is correct. Studies show Americans prefer gore and scandal to news about a good Samaritan, unless the individual is famous.
In 2014, McGill University conducted studies using eye-tracking equipment to discover what news stories their subjects preferred to read. The results were eye-opening, pardon the pun. The subjects preferred to scan bad news, although they professed to be more interested in good news.
To illustrate how news coverage impacts our view, think about airline crashes. When a plane goes down, it generates a torrent of news coverage. The result is that a sizable percentage of Americans believe air travel is risky (include me in that number.) But the facts argue otherwise.
The National Transportation Safety Board estimates the odds of dying in a plane crash at one in 29.4 million. By comparison, you have a one in 144 chance of being involved in a fatal car wreck. Air disaster news reports focus on fatalities without adding perspective on the relative safety of flight.
There are other influences beyond the media. Many public advocacy groups have a vested interest in convincing Americans there are looming catastrophic consequences from pollution, climate change, social inequality, etc. etc. etc. Frankly, their job is to scare daylights out of you to trigger a reaction.
Even well-meaning, non-profit organizations are guilty of overstating problems. If you want to raise money, the issue to be solved must rise to a critical level to motivate people to part with their money. A tug on the emotional strings, alarming statistics and unsettling images are the grist of non-profits.
People might be reluctant to donate money to help poverty-stricken children. But tell them millions of kids go without food every day and show videos of babies with swollen bellies and people are more sympathetic. Often perspective is missing in the message. People are being manipulated.
A better example may be economists and stock market analysts. They are unrivaled pessimists. Even with the economy improving, they now worry about wage hikes. Shouldn't that be good news for workers? Not in their view. More pay means higher prices and inflation, they grouse.
No wonder Americans and people around the globe are pessimistic about their world. They are being bombarded with distressing news, gloomy predictions, worst case scenarios and an endless list of problems. We all need to gain more perspective and obtain factual evidence to better assess reality.
One solution is to stop watching, reading and listening to the news around-the-clock. Being informed is healthy, but being saturated with woe and torment is a prescription for depression. We should all strive to be rational optimists, adopting a view that no problem cannot be solved over time.
The alternative is to wallow in our agony as we are reminded daily that our planet is in a mess. This world and nation of ours are far from perfect. But our planet has survived devastating wars, famines, natural disasters, genocides and epic diseases. That should give us hope for a bright future.
Many point to a 2013 groundbreaking study conducted by a Swedish statistician and public health expert Hans Rosling. He surveyed 1,005 Americans on the issue of world poverty. He was astonished to find only five percent of Americans correctly estimated the level of poverty.
In his research, Americans were asked if world poverty had almost doubled, almost halved or stayed about the same in the last 20 years. The correct answer is extreme poverty has been reduced by one-half. Most Americans estimated it was much higher, influenced by what they had read or heard.
The statistician's conclusion, supported by many other studies, is that people's pessimistic views often are unsupported by facts. This is especially true in developed countries, where people generally have higher levels of income, increased security and benefit from healthier living conditions.
Consider recent data from the University of Michigan, Haver Analytics and Deutsche Bank Global Research. For the first time millennials are less optimistic than those aged 55+ about the future. Just 37 percent of people believe today's children will be better off financially than their parents.
Researchers concede there are depressing issues confronting the world: terrorism, conflicts, failing economies, drugs, student debt and many others. However, these problems are often the subject of news reporting that inflates the risks and danger to attract viewers, readers and listeners.
Psychologists point to the media's infatuation with bad news. Murders, accidents, bombings, natural disasters and scandals dominate the news. The emphasis is on tragedy, despair and disturbing behavior. Is it any wonder Americans believe the world is crumbling beneath their feet?
Meanwhile, good news is usually ignored because the media is convinced people aren't interested. Unfortunately, there is evidence to suggest the news cabal is correct. Studies show Americans prefer gore and scandal to news about a good Samaritan, unless the individual is famous.
In 2014, McGill University conducted studies using eye-tracking equipment to discover what news stories their subjects preferred to read. The results were eye-opening, pardon the pun. The subjects preferred to scan bad news, although they professed to be more interested in good news.
To illustrate how news coverage impacts our view, think about airline crashes. When a plane goes down, it generates a torrent of news coverage. The result is that a sizable percentage of Americans believe air travel is risky (include me in that number.) But the facts argue otherwise.
The National Transportation Safety Board estimates the odds of dying in a plane crash at one in 29.4 million. By comparison, you have a one in 144 chance of being involved in a fatal car wreck. Air disaster news reports focus on fatalities without adding perspective on the relative safety of flight.
There are other influences beyond the media. Many public advocacy groups have a vested interest in convincing Americans there are looming catastrophic consequences from pollution, climate change, social inequality, etc. etc. etc. Frankly, their job is to scare daylights out of you to trigger a reaction.
Even well-meaning, non-profit organizations are guilty of overstating problems. If you want to raise money, the issue to be solved must rise to a critical level to motivate people to part with their money. A tug on the emotional strings, alarming statistics and unsettling images are the grist of non-profits.
People might be reluctant to donate money to help poverty-stricken children. But tell them millions of kids go without food every day and show videos of babies with swollen bellies and people are more sympathetic. Often perspective is missing in the message. People are being manipulated.
A better example may be economists and stock market analysts. They are unrivaled pessimists. Even with the economy improving, they now worry about wage hikes. Shouldn't that be good news for workers? Not in their view. More pay means higher prices and inflation, they grouse.
No wonder Americans and people around the globe are pessimistic about their world. They are being bombarded with distressing news, gloomy predictions, worst case scenarios and an endless list of problems. We all need to gain more perspective and obtain factual evidence to better assess reality.
One solution is to stop watching, reading and listening to the news around-the-clock. Being informed is healthy, but being saturated with woe and torment is a prescription for depression. We should all strive to be rational optimists, adopting a view that no problem cannot be solved over time.
The alternative is to wallow in our agony as we are reminded daily that our planet is in a mess. This world and nation of ours are far from perfect. But our planet has survived devastating wars, famines, natural disasters, genocides and epic diseases. That should give us hope for a bright future.
Monday, November 26, 2018
Anti-Semitism: The Scourge That Won't Subside
The world cannot seem to shake more than one-thousand years of Anti-Semitism. Despite determined efforts to stamp out all hate crimes, persecution of Jews continues unabated. Even in America, Jews are being targeted in larger numbers than ever for their religious beliefs.
Recently, many Americans recoiled in horror after a gunman mowed down 11 people at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh. They were marked for assassination by their executioner for practicing their Jewish faith. The victims were innocent people whose "crime" was their Jewishness.
Coincidentally, within days of the slaughter, the FBI released data showing Jewish people and institutions were most frequently targeted, accounting for 58.1 percent of all religious based hate crime. Muslims ranked a distant second at 18.6 percent. The FBI data is for the year 2017.
The mainstream media as expected needed a scapegoat for the increase in violence against Jews. To no one's surprise they blamed the rhetoric of President Trump for the murderous rampage. That may be the most nonsensical, unsubstantiated charge ever leveled against this president.
The president's son-in-law Jared Kushner is Jewish. Mr. Trump's daughter Ivanka, who is married to Kushner, converted to Judaism. The couple's children are being raised in the Jewish faith. Mr. Trump has been the most pro-Israel president in history.
Name just one anti-Jewish statement uttered by Mr. Trump. Or a Anti-Semitic tweet. You can't do it because none exist. The media and politicians know that too but they are never, ever going to expose the No. 1 Jew Hater in America.
The truth is that the mainstream media, politicians and black leaders are afraid to point the finger at the prime source of Anti-Semitism in this country. His name is Minister Louis Farrakhan, an 84-year-old African-American who bills himself as the leader of the Nation of Islam.
Despite his decades-long openly Anti-Semitic crusade, no one dares condemn him. He has the ear of powerful politicians. He has been photographed with everyone from Barrack Obama to Democratic senators and representatives Their silence is tacit endorsement for his poisonous hatred.
When he is not denigrating Jews, this pseudo minister rallies his followers to support his favored politicians. In 1988, he exhorted his disciples to back Jesse Jackson's bid for the Democratic Party nomination. He was back in the news in 1995, helping organize the 'Million Man March,"
These activities give him a certain cache among politicians, especially Democrats and the Congressional Black Caucus. But make no mistake about his putrid ideology. This man is a Jew hating psychopath who at times has all but called for genocide against Jews.
In his latest rant, Farrakhan compared Jews to "termites," borrowing the same description the German Nazis used during their bloodthirsty campaign to exterminate the Jewish race. Not a single African-American senator or representative had the guts to castigate this vile man. Not one.
The Anti-Defamation League, a pro-Jewish group, cited a recent report that social media harassment of Jewish Americans increased during the latest election. While social media platforms regularly censor conservative views, Farrakhan is treated with kid gloves. He is The Untouchable.
Imagine if anyone was preaching this same kind of hatred against Muslims. The national uproar would be deafening. Why does this nation and others tolerate blatantly anti-Jewish hate speech? There is only one conclusion to draw. Anti-Semitism exists because we allow it.
A few Swastikas spray painted on synagogues is treated as a prank. A smashed widow at a Jewish shop is just a petty crime. Even the horrific Pittsburgh murders did not generate the same level of inflamed news coverage as school shootings or the most recent carnage at a California bar and grill.
As long as the Louis Farrakhan's of the world are freely allowed to spew venom about Jews without any retribution, the level of violence against Jews will only increase. If our politicians won't stand up against this wretched evil man, then the American people must take matters in their own hands.
A nation that condones anti-Semitism is destined to follow the road that leads to Nazism. That may sound like hyperbole to some of you, but remember the German people refused to raise their voices while Hitler's goon squads rounded up Jews and sent millions to their deaths. Silence is consent.
Raise your voices. We are Americans. We don't condone hatred of any religious group. Those who embrace hatred do not deserve a public platform despite our First Amendment guarantee of Free Speech. It is time to muffle Farrakhan and banish this religious bigot from the American stage.
Recently, many Americans recoiled in horror after a gunman mowed down 11 people at the Tree of Life Synagogue in Pittsburgh. They were marked for assassination by their executioner for practicing their Jewish faith. The victims were innocent people whose "crime" was their Jewishness.
Coincidentally, within days of the slaughter, the FBI released data showing Jewish people and institutions were most frequently targeted, accounting for 58.1 percent of all religious based hate crime. Muslims ranked a distant second at 18.6 percent. The FBI data is for the year 2017.
The mainstream media as expected needed a scapegoat for the increase in violence against Jews. To no one's surprise they blamed the rhetoric of President Trump for the murderous rampage. That may be the most nonsensical, unsubstantiated charge ever leveled against this president.
The president's son-in-law Jared Kushner is Jewish. Mr. Trump's daughter Ivanka, who is married to Kushner, converted to Judaism. The couple's children are being raised in the Jewish faith. Mr. Trump has been the most pro-Israel president in history.
Name just one anti-Jewish statement uttered by Mr. Trump. Or a Anti-Semitic tweet. You can't do it because none exist. The media and politicians know that too but they are never, ever going to expose the No. 1 Jew Hater in America.
The truth is that the mainstream media, politicians and black leaders are afraid to point the finger at the prime source of Anti-Semitism in this country. His name is Minister Louis Farrakhan, an 84-year-old African-American who bills himself as the leader of the Nation of Islam.
Despite his decades-long openly Anti-Semitic crusade, no one dares condemn him. He has the ear of powerful politicians. He has been photographed with everyone from Barrack Obama to Democratic senators and representatives Their silence is tacit endorsement for his poisonous hatred.
When he is not denigrating Jews, this pseudo minister rallies his followers to support his favored politicians. In 1988, he exhorted his disciples to back Jesse Jackson's bid for the Democratic Party nomination. He was back in the news in 1995, helping organize the 'Million Man March,"
These activities give him a certain cache among politicians, especially Democrats and the Congressional Black Caucus. But make no mistake about his putrid ideology. This man is a Jew hating psychopath who at times has all but called for genocide against Jews.
In his latest rant, Farrakhan compared Jews to "termites," borrowing the same description the German Nazis used during their bloodthirsty campaign to exterminate the Jewish race. Not a single African-American senator or representative had the guts to castigate this vile man. Not one.
The Anti-Defamation League, a pro-Jewish group, cited a recent report that social media harassment of Jewish Americans increased during the latest election. While social media platforms regularly censor conservative views, Farrakhan is treated with kid gloves. He is The Untouchable.
Imagine if anyone was preaching this same kind of hatred against Muslims. The national uproar would be deafening. Why does this nation and others tolerate blatantly anti-Jewish hate speech? There is only one conclusion to draw. Anti-Semitism exists because we allow it.
A few Swastikas spray painted on synagogues is treated as a prank. A smashed widow at a Jewish shop is just a petty crime. Even the horrific Pittsburgh murders did not generate the same level of inflamed news coverage as school shootings or the most recent carnage at a California bar and grill.
As long as the Louis Farrakhan's of the world are freely allowed to spew venom about Jews without any retribution, the level of violence against Jews will only increase. If our politicians won't stand up against this wretched evil man, then the American people must take matters in their own hands.
A nation that condones anti-Semitism is destined to follow the road that leads to Nazism. That may sound like hyperbole to some of you, but remember the German people refused to raise their voices while Hitler's goon squads rounded up Jews and sent millions to their deaths. Silence is consent.
Raise your voices. We are Americans. We don't condone hatred of any religious group. Those who embrace hatred do not deserve a public platform despite our First Amendment guarantee of Free Speech. It is time to muffle Farrakhan and banish this religious bigot from the American stage.
Monday, November 19, 2018
Grateful For A Strong Texas Lady
Don't let Dorothy Anderson's grizzled age and lingering gait fool you. The 91-year-old is stronger than she appears This spunky lady has survived a near fatal car crash, cancer, a heart attack, two knee surgeries and three floods. The mother of five has even endured an irksome son-in-law. Me.
Dorothy announced her arrival in the world on April 29, 1927, in Belmont, Texas, a tiny community about 20 miles east of Seguin. Like many in that era, her schooling was in a cramped one-room wooden building. She married John W. Anderson on November 26, 1944. She was 17 years old.
The couple settled in Seguin and moved in with John's mother for a brief spell. Both would end up working at Southwestern Bell and Hexcel manufacturing. Children followed in rapid succession. Even with a job, she cooked meals, washed clothes and cared for her kids with passionate energy.
She protected her children with the heart of a lioness. Once her daughter Dianna injured her finger in PE volleyball. The school nurse ignored Dianna's complaints of piercing pain. When Dianna arrived home, Dorothy whisked her to the doctor. The diagnosis: Dianna's finger was broken.
The next day the school principal and nurse got an earful from Dorothy. Every child yearns for a stand-up Mom. One who will back her kids no matter the consequences. That describes my mother-in-law.
Eventually, Dorothy and John settled on the family farm outside Seguin. They built a home on land dotted with pecan trees. Growing, harvesting, shelling and selling pecans became their passion after the children were grown. Most folks thought it was man's work, but Dorothy ignored convention.
She worked along side her husband in the pecan groves. She hefted irrigation pipe to water the trees, shelled pecans by hand, drove a tractor and sold pecans to locals and folks just passing through. She built an successful retailing operation, selling from a store on a local highway.
Three devastating floods interrupted their tranquil lives. In 1972, 1978 and 1998 torrential rains triggered rising waters that spilled over the banks of Mill Creek near their country home. The last flood swamped their two-story house, sweeping away treasured photos and mementos.
Their house in ruins, they built a raised home on higher ground nearby. During that time, they bunked in a small room in the pecan store. Dorothy managed to make it a home in the midst of a retail building crammed with sales displays and shelling equipment. She was resilient and unbending.
After they moved into their new home on the farm, another tragedy struck far greater than any she had faced. Her husband John was diagnosed with crippling Alzheimer disease. Despite being in her late 70's, Dorothy became a full time caregiver for John. It sapped every ounce of her strength.
She endured until her husband's disease worsened, reluctantly agreeing to place him in a nursing home. Every day without fail, she drove to the facility each morning and evening to sit patiently and hold John's hand. She shed many tears as her world shrunk to the size of a nursing home room.
When John passed away in 2012 at age 85, the family naturally worried about how she would hold up. She had been married 68 years and no one could imagine her life without John. Somehow, this strong Texas lady carried on after her loss. She found a church home and renewed faith.
Always an independent woman, Dorothy drove herself to shopping, her weekly hair appointment and the local book store even into her 90's. She became a voracious reader, tended her flower garden and fussed over her pecan trees. Her life finally had a serenity she had not experienced in years.
Then one day recently she fell and suffered cracked ribs and bruised vertebrae. After so many setbacks, this one seemed particularly cruel. But she went through rehabilitation determined to resume her life on the farm. However, doctors decreed she needed round-the-clock care.
That meant living in a nursing home, raising the ugly memories of John's days in a similar facility located nearby. Yet she refused to mope and hold a pity party. Dorothy rose again to the challenge and has adapted to her new season in life. She finds joy where some see only the infirm and weak.
I have many fond memories of her. Each summer my two sons Dean and Derek would spend a week or more with John and her. They learned about raising cattle, chickens and pecans. They fed bales of hay to the cows and feasted on their favorite meals lovingly prepared by their grandmother.
For me, this final thought sums up Dorothy Anderson. I was fishing once in the creek when I hooked a catfish. (I refer to my fishing skills as gentlemanly. Translation: I don't bait my hook, take the fish off the line or eat aquatic animals.) I was desperate for help. Then I spotted Dorothy.
She came to my rescue, fetching the hook out of the catfish's mouth while holding the monster in one hand. I watched squeamishly. When she was done, I shook my head in amazement. There is nothing this woman can not do. I am thankful for that moment and many others shared with her.
Dorothy will blush reading this. She's not the boastful type. She doesn't view herself as a victim or courageous, despite the hardships she has overcome. She is a survivor who relishes seeing her grown children, grandchildren and great grandchildren. Even today, she considers herself blessed.
Her life lesson is simple: be grateful for the goodness in life but do not retreat from the bad times, no matter the duration or the pain. That is wisdom we could all live by. Thank you Dorothy not only for being the best mother-in-law, but teaching us grit and tenacity by your life's example.
Dorothy announced her arrival in the world on April 29, 1927, in Belmont, Texas, a tiny community about 20 miles east of Seguin. Like many in that era, her schooling was in a cramped one-room wooden building. She married John W. Anderson on November 26, 1944. She was 17 years old.
The couple settled in Seguin and moved in with John's mother for a brief spell. Both would end up working at Southwestern Bell and Hexcel manufacturing. Children followed in rapid succession. Even with a job, she cooked meals, washed clothes and cared for her kids with passionate energy.
She protected her children with the heart of a lioness. Once her daughter Dianna injured her finger in PE volleyball. The school nurse ignored Dianna's complaints of piercing pain. When Dianna arrived home, Dorothy whisked her to the doctor. The diagnosis: Dianna's finger was broken.
The next day the school principal and nurse got an earful from Dorothy. Every child yearns for a stand-up Mom. One who will back her kids no matter the consequences. That describes my mother-in-law.
Eventually, Dorothy and John settled on the family farm outside Seguin. They built a home on land dotted with pecan trees. Growing, harvesting, shelling and selling pecans became their passion after the children were grown. Most folks thought it was man's work, but Dorothy ignored convention.
She worked along side her husband in the pecan groves. She hefted irrigation pipe to water the trees, shelled pecans by hand, drove a tractor and sold pecans to locals and folks just passing through. She built an successful retailing operation, selling from a store on a local highway.
Three devastating floods interrupted their tranquil lives. In 1972, 1978 and 1998 torrential rains triggered rising waters that spilled over the banks of Mill Creek near their country home. The last flood swamped their two-story house, sweeping away treasured photos and mementos.
Their house in ruins, they built a raised home on higher ground nearby. During that time, they bunked in a small room in the pecan store. Dorothy managed to make it a home in the midst of a retail building crammed with sales displays and shelling equipment. She was resilient and unbending.
After they moved into their new home on the farm, another tragedy struck far greater than any she had faced. Her husband John was diagnosed with crippling Alzheimer disease. Despite being in her late 70's, Dorothy became a full time caregiver for John. It sapped every ounce of her strength.
She endured until her husband's disease worsened, reluctantly agreeing to place him in a nursing home. Every day without fail, she drove to the facility each morning and evening to sit patiently and hold John's hand. She shed many tears as her world shrunk to the size of a nursing home room.
When John passed away in 2012 at age 85, the family naturally worried about how she would hold up. She had been married 68 years and no one could imagine her life without John. Somehow, this strong Texas lady carried on after her loss. She found a church home and renewed faith.
Always an independent woman, Dorothy drove herself to shopping, her weekly hair appointment and the local book store even into her 90's. She became a voracious reader, tended her flower garden and fussed over her pecan trees. Her life finally had a serenity she had not experienced in years.
Then one day recently she fell and suffered cracked ribs and bruised vertebrae. After so many setbacks, this one seemed particularly cruel. But she went through rehabilitation determined to resume her life on the farm. However, doctors decreed she needed round-the-clock care.
That meant living in a nursing home, raising the ugly memories of John's days in a similar facility located nearby. Yet she refused to mope and hold a pity party. Dorothy rose again to the challenge and has adapted to her new season in life. She finds joy where some see only the infirm and weak.
I have many fond memories of her. Each summer my two sons Dean and Derek would spend a week or more with John and her. They learned about raising cattle, chickens and pecans. They fed bales of hay to the cows and feasted on their favorite meals lovingly prepared by their grandmother.
For me, this final thought sums up Dorothy Anderson. I was fishing once in the creek when I hooked a catfish. (I refer to my fishing skills as gentlemanly. Translation: I don't bait my hook, take the fish off the line or eat aquatic animals.) I was desperate for help. Then I spotted Dorothy.
She came to my rescue, fetching the hook out of the catfish's mouth while holding the monster in one hand. I watched squeamishly. When she was done, I shook my head in amazement. There is nothing this woman can not do. I am thankful for that moment and many others shared with her.
Dorothy will blush reading this. She's not the boastful type. She doesn't view herself as a victim or courageous, despite the hardships she has overcome. She is a survivor who relishes seeing her grown children, grandchildren and great grandchildren. Even today, she considers herself blessed.
Her life lesson is simple: be grateful for the goodness in life but do not retreat from the bad times, no matter the duration or the pain. That is wisdom we could all live by. Thank you Dorothy not only for being the best mother-in-law, but teaching us grit and tenacity by your life's example.
Monday, November 12, 2018
Midterm Elections: The Important Numbers
In the rush to analyze the midterm elections, most media and political pundits have stuck to a partisan script. They have zeroed in on party control of Congress, the Trump factor and the impact on the 2020 presidential election. Their interpretations missed some eyeopening numbers.
Voter turnout was the biggest surprise of this midterm. Despite declining voter turnout in previous midterms, there was a sharp reversal of form. According to the U.S. Election Project, an estimated 113 million voters cast ballots, making it the first midterm to exceed 100 million votes.
If those projections are verified, it means nearly 48 percent of eligible voters exercised their right in these midterms. In the most recent midterm in 2014, the turnout was a paltry 36.4 percent. The last time voter turnout reached 49 percent was in the 1966 midterm elections, more than 50 years ago.
Political forecasters were stunned by the size of the early balloting results in many states.
Political forecasters were stunned by the size of the early balloting results in many states.
For instance, by November 1 the number of Texans who cast an early ballot had exceeded the state's entire turnout for the 2014 midterm. Another 19 states, plus the District of Columbia, recorded higher early voter turnout than the entire total for the last midterm.
In previous years, early voting had no influence on total turnout. This midterm was clearly an exception to that rule. One difference from previous midterms is that more than 3.3 million voters aged 18 to 29 voted via early ballot, a whopping 188 percent increase from 2014.
However, seniors were the largest demographic to vote early. By some estimates, seniors aged 65 and up comprised more than half of those who cast ballots before November 6. Voting early is a trend that is likely to mushroom as people decide to skip the dreaded lines on election day.
However, seniors were the largest demographic to vote early. By some estimates, seniors aged 65 and up comprised more than half of those who cast ballots before November 6. Voting early is a trend that is likely to mushroom as people decide to skip the dreaded lines on election day.
Turnout for this midterm hopefully signals a renewed desire for people to become engaged in democracy. America, forget the political parties, wins when people vote. America needs citizen participation for democracy to succeed as the founding fathers intended.
More women were elected to Congress and state legislatures than ever before. There were 3,379 females running in midterm races nationwide, according to a report from Rutgers University's Center for American Women and Politics. That represents a 25 percent increase from the last midterm.
As a result of these midterms, more women will serve in Congress than at any point in our nation's history. There will be at least 118 females in the House and Senate. The total includes 31 first-time House members, seven more than the previous high established in 1992.
The majority of the women in the House are aligned with the Democratic Party--84 of the 96 females that will represent state districts. And 30 of the 31 female newcomers in the House are Democrats. But the first Korean-American ever elected to Congress is a Republican from California.
The House and Senate will be the most diverse in history. That bodes well for a country that embraces diversity. These midterms ushered in a new era for women in politics. And it portends a day when a woman soon will occupy the White House.
The 2018 midterms were the most expensive in history. The Center for Responsive Politics estimates that the two political parties raised a record-breaking $5.2 billion. That smashed the previous mark of $3.7 billion in fundraising in the 2014 midterms.
Democrats benefited from the numbers of retiring Republicans. The media tried to pin the blame on President Trump for Democrats flipping the House. However, Republicans had the largest number of congressional retirements since the Brookings Institute began tracking the statistic 88 years ago.
There was an exodus of 39 before the midterms. Most of them were House members. Many, but certainly not all, represented suburban districts where the demographics have changed in favor of traditional Democratic voters. GOP newcomers faced steep odds to hold these districts.
Incumbency is a sizable advantage in any election. As a result, Republicans lost 31 seats in the midterms against well funded Democrats. Historically, the party of the sitting president loses the House and Senate in midterms, however, the GOP survived a catastrophic defeat.
In 1994, President Clinton lost 54 House seats in the first midterm after his election. President Obama suffered an even worst fate as his party surrendered 63 seats in 2010. Measured against those midterms, Mr. Trump's party fared better than previous first-term presidents.
Although Democrats will control the House and Republicans will be the majority in the Senate, there are 14 Congressional races that remain unsettled a week after the polls closed. This may be the most contests hanging in the balance in election history.
As of this writing, Democrats will have a 227 to 198 majority. There are still 11 House races that are awaiting final tabulation of votes. Despite all the advances in technology, counting votes remains a labor intensive process that often leaves neither political party satisfied. This must be addressed.
In the Senate, there are three races undecided, all likely headed for recounts. For now the Republicans hold a 51-46 majority. The Democrats had more seats to defend in battleground states that President Trump carried in 2016, giving the GOP the upper hand.
By now your head is spinning with numbers, so here is an antidote for data overdose. In Nevada, a dead man won a seat in the state assembly. Republican Dennis Hof, owner of a brothel, passed away a month before the midterms. Officials ruled it was too late to scratch his name. It didn't matter.
Voters overwhelming elected Hof. Apparently, having a pulse is not a requirement for election to the state assembly in Nevada. Truly a sad state of affairs. But nothing should surprise anyone after the tumultuous midterm elections of 2018.
As a result of these midterms, more women will serve in Congress than at any point in our nation's history. There will be at least 118 females in the House and Senate. The total includes 31 first-time House members, seven more than the previous high established in 1992.
The majority of the women in the House are aligned with the Democratic Party--84 of the 96 females that will represent state districts. And 30 of the 31 female newcomers in the House are Democrats. But the first Korean-American ever elected to Congress is a Republican from California.
The House and Senate will be the most diverse in history. That bodes well for a country that embraces diversity. These midterms ushered in a new era for women in politics. And it portends a day when a woman soon will occupy the White House.
The 2018 midterms were the most expensive in history. The Center for Responsive Politics estimates that the two political parties raised a record-breaking $5.2 billion. That smashed the previous mark of $3.7 billion in fundraising in the 2014 midterms.
Democrats benefited from the numbers of retiring Republicans. The media tried to pin the blame on President Trump for Democrats flipping the House. However, Republicans had the largest number of congressional retirements since the Brookings Institute began tracking the statistic 88 years ago.
There was an exodus of 39 before the midterms. Most of them were House members. Many, but certainly not all, represented suburban districts where the demographics have changed in favor of traditional Democratic voters. GOP newcomers faced steep odds to hold these districts.
Incumbency is a sizable advantage in any election. As a result, Republicans lost 31 seats in the midterms against well funded Democrats. Historically, the party of the sitting president loses the House and Senate in midterms, however, the GOP survived a catastrophic defeat.
In 1994, President Clinton lost 54 House seats in the first midterm after his election. President Obama suffered an even worst fate as his party surrendered 63 seats in 2010. Measured against those midterms, Mr. Trump's party fared better than previous first-term presidents.
Although Democrats will control the House and Republicans will be the majority in the Senate, there are 14 Congressional races that remain unsettled a week after the polls closed. This may be the most contests hanging in the balance in election history.
As of this writing, Democrats will have a 227 to 198 majority. There are still 11 House races that are awaiting final tabulation of votes. Despite all the advances in technology, counting votes remains a labor intensive process that often leaves neither political party satisfied. This must be addressed.
In the Senate, there are three races undecided, all likely headed for recounts. For now the Republicans hold a 51-46 majority. The Democrats had more seats to defend in battleground states that President Trump carried in 2016, giving the GOP the upper hand.
By now your head is spinning with numbers, so here is an antidote for data overdose. In Nevada, a dead man won a seat in the state assembly. Republican Dennis Hof, owner of a brothel, passed away a month before the midterms. Officials ruled it was too late to scratch his name. It didn't matter.
Voters overwhelming elected Hof. Apparently, having a pulse is not a requirement for election to the state assembly in Nevada. Truly a sad state of affairs. But nothing should surprise anyone after the tumultuous midterm elections of 2018.
Sunday, November 4, 2018
Trump: More Than Tweets, Bathrobes And Soda
The New York Times, The Washington Post and establishment media have conjured the image of President Trump spending his days tweeting, guzzling Diet Cokes and stumbling through the White House in his bathrobe. This burlesque portrayal is a deliberate attempt to demean his presidency.
In particular, the Times and the Post have used anonymous sources for the most scandalous, outrageous stories lampooning Mr. Trump. To be clear: this is not a blanket endorsement of everything Mr. Trump has uttered or tweeted, but the media has painted a one-sided picture.
Consumers of exclusively mainstream news have become so biased by this reporting, many refuse to believe the president has any redeeming qualities. Viewed through their prejudiced lens, Mr. Trump's achievements include dividing America, throttling minorities, suppressing females and immigrants.
However, facts have a stubborn way of interfering with this deceptive narrative. The president has spurred economic growth, created record numbers of jobs, boosted median income, slashed red-tape regulations, improved security at the border and raised America's foreign policy prestige.
For the skeptics, here is a list of accomplishments in just 20 months for the Trump Administration supported by facts and figures, most of which were gleaned from The Bureau of Labor Statistics, Internal Revenue Service, Council of Economic Advisers and Commerce Department:
The Economy
Four million new jobs have been created since the presidential election. More Americans are now employed than ever before in our history. Unemployment claims are at a 50 year low. African-American and Hispanic unemployment rates have reached historic troughs. Female unemployment has plunged to its lowest level since 1953. Median household income has risen to $61,372, a post-recession high water mark. American workers enjoyed the biggest leap in pay since 2009 as the average hourly earnings for private workers advanced 3.1 percent this quarter, compared to 2017. Nearly four million Americans dropped off the food stamps rolls. In the latest quarter ended in September, the American economy grew a robust 3.5 percent, exceeding analysts projections. Most economists credit the Trump tax cuts for the boom.
Business
Investment is flooding into the U.S. after Congress lowered tax rates for businesses. America's corporate tax rate was the highest in the developed world. More than $450 billion has pored into the country from overseas businesses owned by American companies. Manufacturing has bounced back after decades of decline, reaching its highest level in 14 years. More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs have been added since the election. Retail sales have surged 6.4 percent since July of 2017, reflecting rising consumer confidence and increased disposable income. Last year job satisfaction among American workers hit its peak since 2005. Real wage compensation paid by businesses has risen 1.4 percent over the past year after eight years of stagnation.
Health Care
This ranks as the most under reported area of improvement for Americans. Mr. Trump enacted changes to the Medicare program, saving seniors an estimated $320 million on drugs this year. The Federal Drug Administration, under prodding from the president, set a record for generic drug approvals, saving consumers an estimated $9 billion. The administration enabled small businesses to join together to offer affordable health insurance to their employees by removing restrictions to form Association Health Plans. Legislation signed by the president repealed the infamous "death panels" created by Obamacare. The Department of Agriculture funded more than $1 billion in initiatives to improve access to health care in rural areas for 2.5 million people.
Border Security
Stopping drugs, human trafficking and violent gang members from flowing into the country has been a priority of the administration. Statistics document the success: Arrests of 796 members of the Central American gang MS-13 in 2017, an 83 percent increase from 2016. ICE rescued or identified more than 500 human trafficking victims in 2017 and more than 900 child exploitation victims. ICE agents seized more than 980,000 pounds of narcotics in 2017, including 2,370 pounds of fentanyl and 6,967 pounds of heroin. In a related area, the administration secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic, arrested 28 medical professionals and revoked 147 registrations for physicians over prescribing opioids.
Foreign Policy
President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed tough sanctions on the rogue regime. In the wake of sanctions, Iran's currency has plummeted, international companies have pulled out of the country and the Treasury Department has levied sanctions against key regime individuals. The president opened negotiations with North Korea in an effort to denuclearize the totalitarian nation. Despite the media influenced image of Russian coddling, the administration has expelled dozens of Russian intelligence officers, sanctioned oligarchs and their companies and enhanced support for Ukraine's Armed Forces to defend against Russian aggression. In addition, Mr. Trump demanded European countries increase financial support for NATO, the military alliance between Europe and North America. The result was a hike in 2017 of 4.8 percent in defense spending by member states, amounting to $42 billion. Of course, the piece de resistance was the renegotiation of the flawed NAFTA agreement.
Mr. Trump is constantly savaged because he doesn't stick to the script of past presidents. The media and Democrats are aghast at his nonconformity. Many elitists believe a president should be measured on style not substance. Being "presidential" matters more than getting things done for Americans.
The U.S. had eight years of presidential style. The country was hungry for change. The media has never gotten over the fact American voters chose an outsider over its favored career politician. Irregardless, the media has an ethical obligation to report good news along with the bad.
In particular, the Times and the Post have used anonymous sources for the most scandalous, outrageous stories lampooning Mr. Trump. To be clear: this is not a blanket endorsement of everything Mr. Trump has uttered or tweeted, but the media has painted a one-sided picture.
Consumers of exclusively mainstream news have become so biased by this reporting, many refuse to believe the president has any redeeming qualities. Viewed through their prejudiced lens, Mr. Trump's achievements include dividing America, throttling minorities, suppressing females and immigrants.
However, facts have a stubborn way of interfering with this deceptive narrative. The president has spurred economic growth, created record numbers of jobs, boosted median income, slashed red-tape regulations, improved security at the border and raised America's foreign policy prestige.
For the skeptics, here is a list of accomplishments in just 20 months for the Trump Administration supported by facts and figures, most of which were gleaned from The Bureau of Labor Statistics, Internal Revenue Service, Council of Economic Advisers and Commerce Department:
The Economy
Four million new jobs have been created since the presidential election. More Americans are now employed than ever before in our history. Unemployment claims are at a 50 year low. African-American and Hispanic unemployment rates have reached historic troughs. Female unemployment has plunged to its lowest level since 1953. Median household income has risen to $61,372, a post-recession high water mark. American workers enjoyed the biggest leap in pay since 2009 as the average hourly earnings for private workers advanced 3.1 percent this quarter, compared to 2017. Nearly four million Americans dropped off the food stamps rolls. In the latest quarter ended in September, the American economy grew a robust 3.5 percent, exceeding analysts projections. Most economists credit the Trump tax cuts for the boom.
Business
Investment is flooding into the U.S. after Congress lowered tax rates for businesses. America's corporate tax rate was the highest in the developed world. More than $450 billion has pored into the country from overseas businesses owned by American companies. Manufacturing has bounced back after decades of decline, reaching its highest level in 14 years. More than 400,000 manufacturing jobs have been added since the election. Retail sales have surged 6.4 percent since July of 2017, reflecting rising consumer confidence and increased disposable income. Last year job satisfaction among American workers hit its peak since 2005. Real wage compensation paid by businesses has risen 1.4 percent over the past year after eight years of stagnation.
Health Care
This ranks as the most under reported area of improvement for Americans. Mr. Trump enacted changes to the Medicare program, saving seniors an estimated $320 million on drugs this year. The Federal Drug Administration, under prodding from the president, set a record for generic drug approvals, saving consumers an estimated $9 billion. The administration enabled small businesses to join together to offer affordable health insurance to their employees by removing restrictions to form Association Health Plans. Legislation signed by the president repealed the infamous "death panels" created by Obamacare. The Department of Agriculture funded more than $1 billion in initiatives to improve access to health care in rural areas for 2.5 million people.
Border Security
Stopping drugs, human trafficking and violent gang members from flowing into the country has been a priority of the administration. Statistics document the success: Arrests of 796 members of the Central American gang MS-13 in 2017, an 83 percent increase from 2016. ICE rescued or identified more than 500 human trafficking victims in 2017 and more than 900 child exploitation victims. ICE agents seized more than 980,000 pounds of narcotics in 2017, including 2,370 pounds of fentanyl and 6,967 pounds of heroin. In a related area, the administration secured $6 billion in new funding to fight the opioid epidemic, arrested 28 medical professionals and revoked 147 registrations for physicians over prescribing opioids.
Foreign Policy
President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed tough sanctions on the rogue regime. In the wake of sanctions, Iran's currency has plummeted, international companies have pulled out of the country and the Treasury Department has levied sanctions against key regime individuals. The president opened negotiations with North Korea in an effort to denuclearize the totalitarian nation. Despite the media influenced image of Russian coddling, the administration has expelled dozens of Russian intelligence officers, sanctioned oligarchs and their companies and enhanced support for Ukraine's Armed Forces to defend against Russian aggression. In addition, Mr. Trump demanded European countries increase financial support for NATO, the military alliance between Europe and North America. The result was a hike in 2017 of 4.8 percent in defense spending by member states, amounting to $42 billion. Of course, the piece de resistance was the renegotiation of the flawed NAFTA agreement.
Mr. Trump is constantly savaged because he doesn't stick to the script of past presidents. The media and Democrats are aghast at his nonconformity. Many elitists believe a president should be measured on style not substance. Being "presidential" matters more than getting things done for Americans.
The U.S. had eight years of presidential style. The country was hungry for change. The media has never gotten over the fact American voters chose an outsider over its favored career politician. Irregardless, the media has an ethical obligation to report good news along with the bad.
Sunday, October 28, 2018
Sizing Up the Midterm Election
Leading up to the November midterm election, the most hackneyed headline is: "Democrat Voter Enthusiasm Surging." Virtually every mainstream media propaganda machine has churned out stories predicting a Blue Wave sweeping Democrats into power. Forecasters are ignoring the past.
In the last midterm election in 2014, the country recorded the lowest voter turnout in history. Even by midterm standards, turnout was a clunker. An anemic 36.4 percent of eligible voters bothered to go to the polls. That was five percent less than 2012, another disappointing year for turnout.
Going back to 1916, midterm voter turnout has been significantly less than presidential election years. Since 1970, midterm election turnout has been sinking. In every single one of those years, both political parties claimed voter enthusiasm was soaring off the charts. Reality always bites.
Midterms since 1970 have generated turnout in the 40-percent range. By comparison, presidential election years historically attract higher turnouts, mostly in the 60-percent range. The highest voter turnout in the midterms in recent history was the 1962 election with 47.7 percent.
The 2014 midterm is a likely predictor for the upcoming election. That year was the most expensive midterm in United States history with an estimated $3.7 billion lavished on election campaigns. Even gobs of cash failed to nudge the enthusiasm needle. Turnout was the worst in 72 years.
Experts have analyzed midterm elections and written weighty tomes about why voters stay home. Voters lack interest. Midterms don't have the sizzle of a presidential campaign. There are fewer candidates on the ballot. There are more excuses than votes cast. (That's hyperbole by the way.)
So why will this midterm be different? Because the media tells us so? New polling data indicates that despite all the media hype, this midterm may see an uptick in turnout, but mostly in Blue states. The rest of the country may follow the midterm norm. Expect frosty voter interest.
Already the two parties are hyperventilating about the long lines of early voters foreshadowing a record turnout. However, analytics have shown there is no correlation. In fact, a Pew Research analysis of past elections concluded that heavy early voting indicates a reduction in total turnout.
Early voting is billowing because growing numbers of people prefer to skip the long lines on election day. In the 1996 election, Pew found an estimated 10.5% of voters cast early ballots. By the 2012 election, the number had zoomed to 36.6%. In some states, more than 50% of people vote early.
There is no scientific evidence that early voting signals an inflated turnout, regardless of media claims to the contrary. None. Nada. Perhaps this election will prove to be an outlier. But claims that swollen early ballots is a precursor to heavy turnout should be taken with a heavy dose of skepticism.
Millennials may be a better barometer of turnout. A poll released by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic found that only 28 percent of young people aged 18-29 say they will "certainly vote." That compares with 74 percent of seniors. Midterms are a snooze for Millennials.
Latinos, another reliable Democrat voting bloc, normally sit out the midterms. A Pew Research analysis found a record 29 million Latinos are eligible to vote this year. However, Latino turnout in the midterms has declined every year since 2006, tumbling to a historic low 27 percent in 2014.
Despite all the hubbub over the influence of the Latino vote, no one mentions that 71 percent of Hispanics who are eligible to vote live in six states: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Arizona and Illinois. At least three of those states are traditionally Blue Dog Democrat strongholds.
In recent elections, the media point to the power of suburban professional women voters. Democrats traditionally do well with this group. But even with this geographic solidly in the Blue corner, Democrats have to energize young and Latino voters to gain a clear advantage.
History may turn out to be the Democrats' best friend. The president's party has lost seats in Congress in 40 of the 43 midterm elections held in the United States. It's almost impossible to buck the trend. The exceptions to the rule occurred in 1934, 1998 and 2002. Will 2018 follow the script?
One unknown factor is the rising voter approval for President Trump. In the most recent national poll his approval scaled a peak of 47 percent. Going into the 2014 midterms, former President Obama's approval stood at 43 percent. Will that three-point gap made a difference? No one knows.
Pundits are making predictions based on outdated forecast models. Put no faith in them because their sophisticated tools have been proven wrong too often. (See 2016 Presidential Election.) Tell me which voters will turnout and I will be able to forecast the winning party with 100 percent accuracy.
Ignore the polling, excessive campaign spending, targeted voter appeals and the media hype and party evangelism. This midterm will hinge on how many people actually go to the polls. It's that simple. The rest is just mind-numbing political mumbo jumbo.
In the last midterm election in 2014, the country recorded the lowest voter turnout in history. Even by midterm standards, turnout was a clunker. An anemic 36.4 percent of eligible voters bothered to go to the polls. That was five percent less than 2012, another disappointing year for turnout.
Going back to 1916, midterm voter turnout has been significantly less than presidential election years. Since 1970, midterm election turnout has been sinking. In every single one of those years, both political parties claimed voter enthusiasm was soaring off the charts. Reality always bites.
Midterms since 1970 have generated turnout in the 40-percent range. By comparison, presidential election years historically attract higher turnouts, mostly in the 60-percent range. The highest voter turnout in the midterms in recent history was the 1962 election with 47.7 percent.
The 2014 midterm is a likely predictor for the upcoming election. That year was the most expensive midterm in United States history with an estimated $3.7 billion lavished on election campaigns. Even gobs of cash failed to nudge the enthusiasm needle. Turnout was the worst in 72 years.
Experts have analyzed midterm elections and written weighty tomes about why voters stay home. Voters lack interest. Midterms don't have the sizzle of a presidential campaign. There are fewer candidates on the ballot. There are more excuses than votes cast. (That's hyperbole by the way.)
So why will this midterm be different? Because the media tells us so? New polling data indicates that despite all the media hype, this midterm may see an uptick in turnout, but mostly in Blue states. The rest of the country may follow the midterm norm. Expect frosty voter interest.
Already the two parties are hyperventilating about the long lines of early voters foreshadowing a record turnout. However, analytics have shown there is no correlation. In fact, a Pew Research analysis of past elections concluded that heavy early voting indicates a reduction in total turnout.
Early voting is billowing because growing numbers of people prefer to skip the long lines on election day. In the 1996 election, Pew found an estimated 10.5% of voters cast early ballots. By the 2012 election, the number had zoomed to 36.6%. In some states, more than 50% of people vote early.
There is no scientific evidence that early voting signals an inflated turnout, regardless of media claims to the contrary. None. Nada. Perhaps this election will prove to be an outlier. But claims that swollen early ballots is a precursor to heavy turnout should be taken with a heavy dose of skepticism.
Millennials may be a better barometer of turnout. A poll released by the Public Religion Research Institute and The Atlantic found that only 28 percent of young people aged 18-29 say they will "certainly vote." That compares with 74 percent of seniors. Midterms are a snooze for Millennials.
Latinos, another reliable Democrat voting bloc, normally sit out the midterms. A Pew Research analysis found a record 29 million Latinos are eligible to vote this year. However, Latino turnout in the midterms has declined every year since 2006, tumbling to a historic low 27 percent in 2014.
Despite all the hubbub over the influence of the Latino vote, no one mentions that 71 percent of Hispanics who are eligible to vote live in six states: California, Texas, Florida, New York, Arizona and Illinois. At least three of those states are traditionally Blue Dog Democrat strongholds.
In recent elections, the media point to the power of suburban professional women voters. Democrats traditionally do well with this group. But even with this geographic solidly in the Blue corner, Democrats have to energize young and Latino voters to gain a clear advantage.
History may turn out to be the Democrats' best friend. The president's party has lost seats in Congress in 40 of the 43 midterm elections held in the United States. It's almost impossible to buck the trend. The exceptions to the rule occurred in 1934, 1998 and 2002. Will 2018 follow the script?
One unknown factor is the rising voter approval for President Trump. In the most recent national poll his approval scaled a peak of 47 percent. Going into the 2014 midterms, former President Obama's approval stood at 43 percent. Will that three-point gap made a difference? No one knows.
Pundits are making predictions based on outdated forecast models. Put no faith in them because their sophisticated tools have been proven wrong too often. (See 2016 Presidential Election.) Tell me which voters will turnout and I will be able to forecast the winning party with 100 percent accuracy.
Ignore the polling, excessive campaign spending, targeted voter appeals and the media hype and party evangelism. This midterm will hinge on how many people actually go to the polls. It's that simple. The rest is just mind-numbing political mumbo jumbo.
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