Congress Unleashes Unhealthy Reform

No one should be surprised that the so-called Health Care Reform bill was approved by the House. For those of you who follow my annual predictions, I forecast this result, despite all the public angst over the sweeping changes in the health care delivery system. There were just too many signs that Democrats had drawn a line in the sand from which there would be no retreat, irregardless of what the polls said about a rising tide of public opposition.

Many were mistakenly hopeful of defeat for the bill. They saw the public protests in cities, often arranged by the nascent Tea Party activists. They heard pundits preach that House members up for election would shrink once that faced angry constituents back home at noisy town hall meetings. Many on the political right--particular those in the media--whipped up public fervor with the prospect that their voices would matter. All this was an illusion because none of it was going to make a difference. At least not to the three people most responsible for this travesty: the President, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid.

That unholy trinity was going to do whatever it took to deliver a bill. Despite what your hear about this being a victory for left wing ideology, this was more about saving their jobs. Think about it. The Obama Administration and a Democratic Congress had nothing to show for the first 15 months of what was supposed to be sweeping change. Job growth is non-existent. Wars are still being waged on two fronts. Home foreclosures are steadily rising again. Small and medium sized banks are going belly up. There is nothing for the Democrats to claim as a victory going into the November elections. They were desperate for a win. And desperate people are the hardest to defeat.

But Democrats also would not have been able to achieve passage of the bill without a battle plan that nullified their potential adversaries or at least neutered their ability to scuttle the health care bills.

1. President Clinton's ill fated attempt at health care reform went down in flames, in part, because big business, big pharma and big medical groups (like the AMA) were aligned against the effort. This time the President left the dirty work to his minions, who rounded up those three unlikely allies behind the bill. Team Obama co-opted the pharmaceutical industry with a deal they couldn't refuse. The American Medical Association fell in lock step. Many large corporations, struggling with staggering growth in medical costs for employees, either remained silent or tacitly signaled they would not oppose health care reform this time around. Don't think the big firms didn't ask for some kind of quid-pro-quid because they did. However, by removing themselves from the battle, they ceded ground to the unions, who were only too happy to get out front on the issue. But businesses may have miscalculated. When taxpayers begin picking up most of the medical costs previously incurred by these firms, the unions will demand higher wages to make up for the "lost benefits" once paid by their employers. That day is coming and sooner than many think.

2. The mainstream media, mostly the big three television networks, provided air cover for the bill. Reporting almost always focused on the popular parts of the Health Care Reform bill while ignoring those that were more controversial. Most newspapers offered the same coverage, but print media long ago lost its influence. If you only watched the three networks, you could not help but think this bill would allow most Americans afford insurance without increasing the deficit. More importantly, many seniors rely on television news for most of their information. The networks were loathe to air any criticism of the bill's provisions to reduce and ration health care for seniors. Since survey after survey shows that most Americans get their news from network television, these news outlets provided the air cover needed for Democrats to act against their constituents' will. While it's true talk radio derided the health care effort for months, its audience still pales when compared to the big three networks.

2. Seniors, who have the most to lose in this reform bill, were strangely silent. The network television coverage helps explain part of this. However, many are members of American Association of Retired Persons (AARP), which enthusiastically supported the bill from its inception. Many seniors have no idea that AARP is a shill for the Democratic Party that has wrapped itself in representing the interests of the elderly. Anyone who has taken the time to learn who runs AARP and its ties with the Democrat Party understands that the organization is beholden to the current administration and not to seniors. Simply stated, seniors were duped. If you don't think that matters, ask any elected official who they fear most. Seniors vote in greater percentages than any other group. They have lots of time on their hands to raise cane. Don't underestimate the impact that millions of outraged and organized seniors would have had on efforts to derail this legislation. Sure, ragtag knots of seniors showed up at a few town hall meetings, but they were disorganized and their voices were muted.

4. The President finally weighed in at the eleventh hour when it became clear that House and Senate Democrats would not walk the plank alone. Obama put his considerable political capital on the line in the last few months, beginning with his awkwardly staged meeting with representatives of both parties. Behind the scenes, Democratic leaders had been saying for months that Obama needed to lead the effort, rather than wait in the wings and let the process work. When he finally acquiesced, Democrats in the House felt embolden to step from the shadows. Sure, there was arm twisting, unseemly deal-making and political payoffs. But that happens with a lot of legislation, admittedly to a lesser degree. What sealed the deal was Obama stepping out front to deflect some of the political heat from House and Senate members. More air cover.

Now a few muttering media mouths are acting like there is still hope to derail this bill. They are pointing to developments like these: At least 18 states are preparing to file lawsuits. Republicans are planning procedural rules fights to halt passage of reconciliation. Others are promising to go to the Supreme Court to challenge the bill's constitutionality. Don't fall for any of this. The biggest hurdles have been leaped. None of this will matter.

So what happens next? Democrats will spend the time between now and Easter spinning this as a "historic", "landmark," and "momentous" step. The President will stage more town hall meetings to ostensibly explain the reform bill's benefits. Democrats will highlight those parts of the bill that most voters can rally around. They will drag more insurance victims before the cameras to talk about how their lives will be saved by health care reform. The big networks will be compliant. Expect one-on-one interviews with the President, describing the lonely task of shepherding the legislation through a recalcitrant Congress. Unions will be bankrolling efforts to whip up enthusiasm for reforms.

The conventional wisdom is that Americans won't fall for the rhetoric. Voters will remember in November what happened in March. However, watch for the Democrats to unleash a tried and true scare tactic: voters will be warned that if Republicans are elected, they will take away this new entitlement. GOP candidates will be branded as tools of the insurance industry who would like nothing better than to go back to the good old days when those with preexisting conditions were kicked off the coverage rolls. The tactic has worked for Democrats for decades, especially with regard to the country's three biggest entitlement programs: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

If you believe all this is unnecessarily gloomy, ask yourself this question: When is the last time Congress ended an entitlement program? The answer unfortunately is never. That's hardly encouraging for those looking for a miracle to stop the inevitable.