As the venerable personal computer turns 30 years old, it may seem heretical to predict its demise. However, the PC appears headed for an early grave as demand for mobility and portable information is pushing consumers toward new high-tech devices.
No less authority than Mark Dean has predicted the personal computer will go the way of the "vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent light bulbs." Dean's words carry added weight because he once held the title of chief technology officer at computing Goliath IBM.
Market trends support Dean's prediction. Sales of personal computers have slowed dramatically in the past 18 months, while demand for tablets and smartphones has exceeded forecasts. Mounting evidence suggests that tablets, in particular, are being snapped up as replacements for personal computers.
The news could not come at a worst time for the computer industry. PC shipments declined 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of last year. In the most recent quarter, shipments rose only 3.2 percent, significantly below historical averages. Analysts had forecast sales growth this year of 13.6 percent.
Despite the modest quarterly gain, consumer appetite for personal computers in the United States, Canada and Europe has waned. The computer industry was able to eke out a sales increase, thanks to growing demand in emerging markets, such as China, India and Turkey.
Even with a three-decade head start, personal computer firms are in danger of being swamped by a tsunami of competition. Data indicates that for the first time in history more smartphones have shipped this year than personal computers.
Smartphone sales reached 115 million in the third quarter, a 42 percent increase from the same period a year ago. Worldwide sales of smartphones are predicted to top 468 million this year, according to Gartner, a tech research firm. By comparison, Gartner forecasts 352 million PC's will be sold in 2011.
If smartphone sales are sizzling, then tablets are on fire. Apple, the market leader with its iPad, expects to sell 40 million tablets this year. The year over year growth is north of 342 percent. iPads are selling at a rate of 1.22 every second of every day. Data shows consumers are junking their notebook computers in favor of iPads.
The Apple juggernaut has captured 61 percent of the tablet market in spite of fierce competition. In its most recent quarter, iPad sales topped $6 billion. The tablet has become the top selling consumer electronics device ever in a little over 18 months.
While tablets are cannibalizing consumer PC sales, smartphones are invading the personal computer's business turf. More smartphones are being linked to enterprise applications once reserved for PC's. Medical centers, universities, small businesses and even auto companies are swapping smartphones for PC's.
Worst of all, most of the largest computer makers have no PC alternatives. None offer smartphones or tablets, except HP. The firm purchased Palm in April of last year, but has stumbled in the market. HP introduced a flashy tablet earlier this year then quickly withdrew it because of moribund sales.
What's behind the rapid ascent of smartphones and tablets? There are two chief reasons for the growth: technology advancements are leveling the playing field between smartphones, tablets and PC's; and, users are demanding anywhere-anytime access to personal and public data and information.
Today's smartphones have more computing power than the average PC's of just a decade or more ago. Most smartphones have storage capacity of 16 to 64 gigabytes. A desktop computer in 1998 typically could store up to two gigabytes. The computer of that era had 64 megabits of memory, compared to more than 256 megabits of random access memory for today's smartphones.
The other disruptive trend for the computer industry is the demand for portable information. Consumers no longer want to be shackled to a single computer to access their videos, photos, email, documents and music. They want to get data and information whenever and wherever they happen to be.
While PC's are busy fending off smartphones and tablets, another competitor has emerged. Smart televisions are entering the marketplace. The new sets have built-in Internet connectivity, offer games, high-tech applications and a myriad of features that mimic those available on personal computers.
Despite all the competition, PC's will not disappear overnight. Increasing sales in foreign markets will continue to prop up the industry. However, in time death will come slowly but surely for the PC.
For a 30 year old, that's a foreboding prospect.
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