Ukraine: America's Callow Response

Throughout the Ukrainian imbroglio, the American president and his chief diplomat have stomped their feet with outrage, sternly wagged their fingers, harshly condemned the Russians and chased every television camera for a chance to scold Putin.  If words could kill, Ukraine would be rid of Russia.

Unfortunately, Putin has obstinately refused to stand down, unmoved by the verbal barrage.  His troops remain in the Crimean region of the Ukraine.  The country's deposed president is holed up in Moscow.  The Russian leader knows he holds the upper hand and will not relax his iron grip until he wins.

Putin's intention is to supplant the United States as the world's superpower.  He desires old-style Soviet domination where the Kremlin attaches its tentacles worldwide. Reuniting the Soviet empire may seem a likely goal, but that view is far too limiting for a man whose ambitions are far more grandiose.

In the Ukraine, the perfect storm was brewing for Putin to exert his will on the world stage.  After dissidents forced Putin's puppet president to flee Ukraine, it created a power vacuum that allowed the Russian leader an opportunity to stealthy maneuver troops into the Crimean region of the Ukraine.

Pundits viewed the move as a strategic gambit to protect the area around Sevastopol on the Crimean peninsula, headquarters of the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian government has extracted a leasing arrangement with Ukraine for the seaport.

However, an analyst at the independent Institute of Strategic Assessments in Moscow pointed out the once mighty fleet is outdated and seriously depleted.  Of all the Russian naval units, the Black Sea Fleet is ranked dead last.  The truth is the Russians no longer consider Sevastopol a strategic asset.

Protecting Sevastopol in the Crimean region was just a pretense for Putin to act.  This show of military force was orchestrated to project Russian power and showcase Putin's ruthless determination to protect his country's interests.  The message was clear and fueled nervous reactions in Europe and the U.S.

Other countries watching Putin's calculatingly bold move had to be taken aback by the swift incursion and his disdain for Ukrainian sovereignty.  But those same nations, including many U.S. allies, must also have felt disquieted by President Obama's fallow response.  That was the reaction Putin desired.

The Russian leader hardly needed guns to bring Ukraine to its knees. The former Soviet satellite imports nearly 70 percent of its natural gas from Russia to heat its homes and businesses, according to Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) documents.

In 2009, Russia cutoff supplies to Europe, including to Ukraine, forcing countries to sign long-term lucrative contracts for future deliveries.  Ukraine inked a 10-year agreement that allows Russia to hike rates almost at will.  If gas prices spike, Ukraine's cash-strapped economy will collapse.

Ukraine's newly installed reform-minded leaders appear to the outside world to enjoy broad popular support.  However, the country is deeply divided along ethnic and geographic fault lines.  In the most recent presidential elections, Russian-backed candidates fared better than the opposition parties.

This works to Putin's advantage because national unification will be nearly impossible without tacit Russian support for any new government.  In a country of 44.5 million, ethnic Russians exert more influence than their 17.3 percent minority status would suggest.

Against this backdrop, the United States has precious few options to shape the geopolitical landscape.  The administration  has failed to grasp the realities of the situation, exposing the weakness of American foreign policy under President Obama who has given allies reasons to doubt the country's resolve.    

That's why no country has rushed to America's side.  They are hedging their bets after watching the U.S. erase its red line in Syria and ease sanctions in Iran after months of American saber rattling.  This has left Obama with limp-wristed sanctions as his only weapon to threaten Putin.

Once it was clear Russia had asserted authority over the Crimean region, Obama should have immediately put the American military on full alert.  Then he should have ordered a Naval fleet steaming for the Black Sea and dispatched American military aides to NATO.  Without at least the threat of military action, the U.S. had no negotiating leverage.  

Putin only understands blunt force.  Condemnations and pleas for 21st century nation-conduct are meaningless chatter.   Obama keeps miscalculating Putin's moves and misinterpreting the Russian bear's motives for provocation, giving the Russian president the upper hand.

Putin views Ukraine as another opportunity to weaken the standing of the United States in the world.  He desires a new world order where traditional allies desert the U.S., leaving the nation isolated.  When that happens, Putin will have an unfettered advantage to establish his world dominance.